3 keys that explain why the final duel between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in Brazil is crucial for Latin America (and for Trump in the US).

3 Keys Explaining Why the Final Showdown Between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in Brazil is Crucial for Latin America (and for Trump in the U.S.) By voting this Sunday, Brazil will choose much more than a president between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: it will also determine a political direction for all of Latin America and the continental influence of the United States. It is difficult to imagine a more momentous election for the region like the one 158 million eligible Brazilian voters have in this run-off. There are extreme contrasts between the right-wing Bolsonaro, who is 45 years old and surprised everyone by winning the first round, and the current president Lula, an 80-year-old former unionist and a benchmark of regional leftism. The difference in valid votes between the two candidates on October 4 was 1.9 percentage points, the smallest recorded in a first round since Brazil regained democracy, and some polls showed a technical tie before Sunday. Bolsonaro is attempting to reach the presidency for the first time, held previously by his father, ultra-Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted for attempted coup after losing re-election in 2022 to Lula, who is now seeking his fourth term. Domestically, Bolsonaro proposes economic liberalism, tax reduction, and a tough stance on security, while Lula advocates for expanding the role of the State, strengthening social policies, and broadening workers' rights. Whether due to their major disagreements, the special juncture of the continent, or Brazil's enormous size, experts warn that this run-off will reverberate beyond the country's borders. "It is a crucial election for the region," says Edgar Franco-Vivanco, a political science professor who directs the Latin American Elections Center at the University of Michigan, in dialogue with BBC Mundo. There are three keys explaining such relevance: 1. The right-wing wave The seven presidential elections held in Latin America since 2025 crowned right-wing candidates, an unprecedented phenomenon that would receive its greatest boost if Bolsonaro wins on Sunday. "Brazil is not only the largest country in terms of population (in Latin America) but also the most important economy. So, its joining this wave of the right would generate many changes," explains Franco-Vivanco. Bolsonaro has several similarities with the radical right-wingers currently governing in the region and allied with U.S. President Donald Trump. His public security plans include mobilizing the military against criminal groups and building maximum-security prisons inspired by those installed by Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele for gangs, despite reports of serious abuses occurring there. Bolsonaro also plans to implement a fiscal adjustment with drastic spending cuts, as done by Argentine President Javier Milei, who participated in launching the Brazilian's campaign, and Chilean José Antonio Kast. Together, this could constitute the greatest effort to reduce the State in the region since the neoliberal reforms of the late last century. Bolsonaro has avoided explaining how he will cut public spending equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, as he proposes. And some economists doubt that he can do it without reducing the social budget, even if he has majorities in Congress. "If he decides to touch the minimum wage, pensions, and social programs, the country will be chaos," states Brazilian Monica de Bolle, lead researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "On the streets, there are many people pointing out that they will not accept an adjustment through that route." The run-off could even have an environmental impact on the region. Under a Bolsonaro government, Amazon deforestation could increase, as happened during his father's term due to reduced governmental controls and greater tolerance for agricultural or mining activities, experts argue. In contrast, under Lula's current administration, destruction of the largest rainforest fell this year to the lowest level recorded in nearly four decades, according to official data. The Forest Declaration Assessment, which gathers civil groups that monitor deforestation, indicated this month that "changes resulting from the recent elections in Colombia and Peru, as well as those coming in Brazil, could threaten forest protection in countries that have been at the forefront of recent advances." "The Amazon spans several countries, and there the advance of the far-right is relevant because it does not have an environmental agenda compatible with ideas of environmental preservation (and) energy transition," says De Bolle to BBC Mundo. In the trade sphere, Bolsonaro has proposed that Brazil could "break free from the shackles of Mercosur" to seek agreements with countries like the U.S., as Milei did in Argentina (which is part of the bloc along with Paraguay and Uruguay), which generated criticism from the Lula government. 2. The Regional Weight of Trump A victory for Bolsonaro would also allow Trump to extend hemispheric dominance across most of South America, which he has sought since returning to the White House last year. During his term, the U.S. has threatened and punished governments in the region, meddled in the elections of some countries in favor of its allies, attacked Venezuela to arrest its president and control its oil industry, and killed more than 230 people by bombing ships in Caribbean and Pacific waters in the name of the war on drugs. "Since the beginning of 2025, we have seen that presence of the U.S. in the region becoming increasingly violent and aggressive. And Brazil is a key piece," notes Carolina Pedroso, professor of international relations at the Federal University of São Paulo. Brazil, like Mexico, has so far remained on the sidelines of an alliance created by Washington with 14 countries in the region called Shield of the Americas, whose first declared goal is to combat drug organizations. Some of those U.S. partners, such as Ecuador and Colombia, have accepted that the U.S. carry out joint military operations within their territories. The Lula government has viewed this offensive from Washington with suspicion, as well as the inclusion of two Brazilian criminal groups among the "terrorist" organizations being pursued, believing that it could open the door to U.S. actions on the border or within its own territory. "Brazil does not fit in anyone's backyard," Lula said before the United Nations General Assembly in September, and warned about "hegemonic temptations" in the region. For his part, Bolsonaro stated in a recent conversation with Colombian president Abelardo de la Espriella that he wants to be part of the Shield of the Americas "to combat those narco-terrorist factions" in cooperation with the countries that make it up. The father of the Brazilian right-wing candidate has been a close ally of Trump, who last year unsuccessfully pressured Brazil to drop the trial of the former president for attempted coup, arguing that it was political persecution. "A defeat for Lula, in that sense, would be a big victory for Trump, for that agenda (...) of increasing the military and economic presence of the U.S. in the region," says Pedroso to BBC Mundo. She adds that a victory for Bolsonaro could also facilitate the U.S. in promoting interests in Brazil, such as the exploitation of rare earths, which have key elements for high technology and its global struggle with China. The Shield of the Americas has already indicated that it seeks to expand its agenda to other strategic areas. The countries in that coalition declared in September their intention to take action to strengthen "economic cooperation" and "protect the supply chains of critical minerals through diversified and reliable sourcing." 3. Lula's Final Act Brazil's run-off will also determine the final act of one of the most important politicians in Latin America this century: Lula da Silva. On the verge of turning 81, the man who was born into poverty, worked as a machinist, union leader during the military dictatorship, and in 2006 became the first former worker to preside over Brazil, has indicated that this is the last election he will contest. His first two terms attracted worldwide attention and guided other left-wing governments through social programs that took millions of Brazilians out of poverty, amid an economic boom due to high commodity prices. Unlike some Latin American leftist leaders who avoided criticizing forcefully, Lula respected democratic rules and in 2011 left the presidency with over 80% popularity. But his Workers' Party (PT) governments also had corruption scandals. Lula himself spent 19 months in prison between 2018 and 2019 due to a conviction later annulled for procedural errors and lack of impartiality by the judge. In 2022, Lula returned to power allied with centrist-right sectors amid fears of an authoritarian drift by then-president Jair Bolsonaro, the drama of an economic crisis, and a devastating pandemic. Brazil has since regained a certain normalcy and stability, but without the high economic growth rates of Lula's first terms and with worrying levels of government and family debt. In the first round of these elections, Lula maintained strong support from the poorest, but lost votes from almost all social classes compared to 2022. This suggests that for the octogenarian president, it is increasingly difficult to sustain his old connection with Brazilians and defeat the wave of protest votes against the parties in power sweeping Latin America. A victory for Lula on Sunday would have a special flavor for him and would keep the governments of the most populous Latin American countries, Brazil and Mexico, under the control of the left. "It would be one of Lula's most important triumphs in his long career," argues Franco-Vivanco. "Turning it around in three weeks from first to second round seems very complicated, but perhaps only a politician like Lula could do it: it would definitely be a relief for the left." Otherwise, the Brazilian president would leave power defeated. And despair would flood the Latin American left. - Download the new BBC World Service app. Choose BBC News Mundo and receive alerts of news, documentaries, and analysis, all in one place. 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