What does Beijing want when Xi Jinping urges Trump to "oppose Taiwan independence" with elevated wording?

Special Study Session: What does Beijing want when Xi Jinping urges Trump to "oppose Taiwan independence"? - Author, Chiang Yi-ting - Role, BBC Chinese Reporter - Reporting from, Taipei - Published - Reading Time: 6 minutes Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Trump at the White House, and their statements on the "Taiwan issue" drew attention. According to Xinhua News Agency, a Chinese state media outlet, Xi Jinping stated during the meeting that China's position on national unification and territorial integrity is very clear, and he hoped the US would "adhere to the correct position of opposing 'Taiwan independence' and handle the Taiwan issue carefully." It is unclear whether Trump responded to this. After the meeting, Trump described the session as a "very great meeting" between the two sides. When questioned by the media about whether the talks involved Taiwan and Artificial Intelligence (AI), neither leader responded. Political scholars told BBC Chinese that compared to the previous US-China leader meeting, Beijing's statements on the Taiwan issue were more direct this time, and they sought not only a verbal commitment from the US but also a clearer expression of opposition to "Taiwan independence" in policy documents or official statements. Analysis also pointed out that Beijing is trying to grasp the narrative dominance after the summit. If this "stealing the lead" trend continues, and high-level interactions between Taiwan, the US, and China remain more restricted, Taiwan's role in the US-China-Taiwan triangular relationship may be further "marginalized." In the coming days, the outside world will continue to watch how Washington responds to these statements and whether the US and China make public statements about Taiwan. Beijing's call for the US to "oppose Taiwan independence" is more direct. Trump and Xi Jinping held a meeting at the White House on Thursday (September 24th) Eastern Time. This was the second meeting between the two in this year. The previous face-to-face meeting was during Trump's visit to China in May of this year, when the Taiwan issue was already a focal point for outside attention. The way the US and China would handle related issues in this summit is also closely watched. Wang Hong-jen, a professor from the Political Science Department at National Chengchi University, who was interviewed by BBC Chinese, said that compared to the previous US-China leader meeting, Beijing's statements on the Taiwan issue were more direct this time. He analyzed that China's demands have shifted from emphasizing that the "Taiwan issue is the most important and sensitive issue in US-China relations" and warning that mishandling it could impact the relationship between the two countries, to demanding a clearer stance from the US at the policy level. "Beijing hopes the US will make more specific statements in official reports or documents, rather than just through verbal statements from Trump." Wang Hong-jen stated that China's requests to Trump themselves have a certain political effect; however, the extent of influence still depends on how the US responds later. He believes the US may not accept this demand, but if Washington adjusts its existing policy towards Taiwan because of this, it will be a development worth watching for Taiwan. The Chinese government asserts that Taiwan is part of its territory and lists the Taiwan issue as one of the core issues in US-China relations. However, most Taiwanese people agree that Taiwan has its own sovereignty and wish to maintain the status quo, meaning not unifying with China and not formally declaring independence. Polls released by the Election Research Center of National Chengchi University on "The Trend Distribution of Taiwanese Public Opinion on Unification" in June this year show that nearly 60% of the Taiwanese public tend to maintain the status quo, 26.1% lean towards independence, and 7.9% lean towards unification. The United States has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan but maintains stable unofficial ties and provides Taiwan with the necessary capabilities for self-defense according to the "Taiwan Relations Act." Washington has always stated it "does not support" Taiwan's formal independence but has never explicitly stated "oppose Taiwan independence" in its long-term policy statements. The main basis of US policy towards Taiwan includes the Taiwan Relations Act, the three joint communiqués between the US and China, and the "Six Assurances." Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded on Thursday (September 25th) afternoon, stating that "this is the method by which the Chinese side consistently distorts facts to unilaterally convey its position and claims," and pointed out that the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China are not affiliated, and Taiwan's future can only be decided jointly by the Taiwanese people through democratic means. Washington remains uncommitted, increasing Taiwanese anxiety. Compared to Beijing's clear articulation of its position on the Taiwan issue, the outside world is still unclear whether Trump responded in the meeting. The White House has not yet released the results of the talks, and the Xinhua News Agency records also do not show that Trump responded to the relevant statements. Several political scholars told BBC Chinese that before the White House released the details of the talks, Beijing released the relevant information first. This helped China to take the lead in defining the focus of the summit discussions and may influence the outside world's understanding of the meeting's outcome. Yang Haowei, a senior analyst from the International Crisis Group,東北亞 (Northeast Asia), told BBC Chinese that after the summit concluded, China quickly released the details of the talks. Besides reiterating its position on Taiwan, it aimed to shape the outside world's perception of the summit's outcome. He believes that Beijing hopes to create an impression: "US-China will gradually form a situation where Taiwan is jointly managed, and the US is gradually adjusting its position to the stance China wants the US to adopt." After the previous US-China meeting, when Trump was interviewed by Fox News, he stated, "I do not want anyone to go to independence," which was interpreted by some observers as adopting some of Beijing's customary narratives. Trump also previously publicly questioned the framework of some of the foundations of the US's long-term policy towards Taiwan. Yang Haowei analyzed that Trump has always been unwilling to be bound by the framework of traditional US foreign policy, and his foreign policy stance often carries a high degree of personal color and uncertainty. Beijing exploits this uncertainty to advance its own narrative. If Washington fails to communicate its position through official channels in time, it may deepen Taiwanese society's doubts about the direction of US policy towards Taiwan, thereby increasing anxiety. Are there variables in US arms sales to Taiwan? It is worth noting that any statement by Trump on related issues, even subtle adjustments in wording, could be interpreted by the outside world as a signal of a change in US policy towards Taiwan, thus affecting the expectations of various parties regarding Washington's security assurances and policies on arms sales to Taiwan. Reuters reported on September 22nd that there are reports that during Xi Jinping's visit to the US, he pressured Trump to stop arms sales to Taiwan according to the 1982 "Eight Protocol." The full name of the protocol is "Announcement between China and the US on resolving the issue of the US selling weapons to Taiwan." In the protocol, the US stated that it would gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan and expect the Taiwan issue to be resolved peacefully in the end. China has long criticized the US for not fulfilling these commitments. The US pointed out that the policy documents proposed by then-President Reagan already indicated that whether the US reduces arms sales to Taiwan depends on whether China continues to handle cross-strait differences peacefully; Taiwan's defense needs will still be an important factor for the US to consider. In the previous US-China meeting, Trump stated that he would sell Taiwan weapons worth $14 billion as bargaining chips with the Chinese leaders, calling them "very good bargaining chips." The Trump administration approved an arms sale of about $11 billion to Taiwan in December of last year, setting a record for the largest scale; another arms sale of about $14 billion has been put on hold for several months. US Secretary of State Rubio recently told the media that some of the delays in US arms sales to Taiwan were due to the potential military needs in other regions of the world and the limitations of the domestic defense industry's production capacity. The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense recently stated that it will continue close coordination with the US Department of War to implement arms sales to Taiwan as planned. Analysis: Taiwan is "already being marginalized". 智庫專家楊晧暐 stated that Taiwan's influence on US-China interactions has always been limited, including when to advance arms sales to Taiwan and how the US-China handle the Taiwan issue, Taipei lacks sufficient leverage to influence it. He pointed out that in recent US-China summits, Beijing has consistently adopted a "stealing the lead" strategy, trying to take the lead in defining the discussion framework and direction for the Taiwan issue. If this trend continues and high-level interactions between Taiwan and the US remain more restricted, Taiwan's role in the US-China-Taiwan relationship may be further marginalized. Dr. Weng Chi-chu, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Southern California, told BBC Chinese that the signals released by Trump to Beijing recently on the Taiwan issue, from arms sales to Taiwan to Taiwan's sovereignty issues, are generally more friendly. He observed that during Trump's second term, Taiwan's strategic importance in US-China relations has decreased compared to the past, and can even be said to be "marginalized." Weng Chi-chu pointed out that the US Congress, the executive branch, and several think tanks have continuously emphasized the importance of Taiwan in recent years and called on the White House not to view Taiwan as a bargaining chip with Beijing. However, from Trump's policy and public statements since his return to the White House, Taiwan has not become a priority in his foreign agenda. Reuters reported on September 25th that 19 Democratic members of the US House of Representatives criticized the summit for focusing too much on form and neglecting substantive issues, and called on Trump to fulfill the security aid approved by Congress for Taiwan, including $1.3 billion in funds and $14 billion in arms sales. Several Republican senators also called for a quick release of this security aid to Taiwan. Weng Chi-chu believes that how Trump discusses Taiwan in the coming days will be an important indicator of the impact of this special study session. He stated that if Trump mentions Taiwan again later, especially if he publicly criticizes Taiwan's defense investment or security responsibilities as insufficient, the outside world may interpret it as the US and China having reached a certain consensus on the Taiwan issue during the summit. "What Beijing wants may not be for the US to directly renounce Taiwan," Weng Chi-chu said, "China more hopes for the US to release some signals to make Taiwanese society gradually doubt the support of Washington, thereby weakening the outside world's confidence in US security assurances." This special study session lasted for three days and included activities such as a tea gathering in the Oval Office and a visit to the National Archives of the United States. Taiwanese Public Reaction In Taiwan, these developments have also drawn high attention. The Kuomintang recently called on President Lai Ching-te to immediately convene a high-level national security meeting to fully grasp the issues related to the special study session and publicly explain them to the public. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te stated at a public event on Wednesday (September 23rd) that Taiwan's freedom and prosperity are not only about the future of 23 million people but also about peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. The Premier of the Executive Yuan, Chu Ren-tai, stated that the government is closely monitoring the developments related to the Sino-US summit. Song Wen-tie, a China researcher at the Atlantic Council think tank, told BBC Chinese that as a third party in the US-China-Taiwan relationship, Taiwan inevitably worries about being pushed from the "table edge" onto the "table." However, he believes there is no need to overinterpret the direct impact of this special study session on Taiwan, as "the Taiwan issue is not the core focus of this summit." Song Wen-tie pointed out that Trump is currently more focused on economic results and hopes to gain more procurement from China and expand cooperation in combating narcotics like fentanyl to respond to domestic political needs in the US. For Xi Jinping, the focus is on continuing the discourse of "constructive strategic stability relations" between China and the US, and gaining more space for cooperation on technological issues like AI. "Whether it is Trump or Xi Jinping, there are issues more pressing and easier to achieve results on than Taiwan right now." Political scholar Wang Hong-jen pointed out that although the US hosted Xi Jinping with high-level courtesy this time, the US-China relationship appears to have temporarily stabilized on the surface. However, looking at the specific results, both sides have not yet achieved significant breakthroughs. He stated that the most clear progress is the extension of the US-China trade "hiatus" of one year by two more months, but this still does not fully meet Beijing's expectations. Furthermore, both sides have not yet reached concrete results on issues such as rare earth exports and soybean purchases. Wang Hong-jen also pointed out that from the attendance arrangements at this state banquet and related activities, the participation of Chinese business people is still somewhat restricted, indicating that although Washington wishes to stabilize bilateral relations, it still views China as a major competitor involving national security, and the competition and strategic caution between the US and China have not disappeared. BBC Chinese reporters Yu Meixia and Jiang Yingyi also contributed to this article.