A troubled Ebola response, jihadists turn to AI, and the US takes aim at the ICC: The Cheat Sheet

Share & more Our editors’ weekly take on humanitarian news, trends, and developments from around the globe. On our radar The Ebola response is in trouble The Ebola response in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo is falling short. It’s not only struggling with the fastest growing outbreak ever recorded – the true number of cases is also at least 2-4 times the official tally of 2,273 infections and 796 deaths so far, according to modelling by the World Health Organization. Worryingly, more than 80% of new cases are being detected outside known contact lists. Although clinical trials have begun for a vaccine for the current Bundibugyo strain, the virus is not waiting. Troubled Ituri province is the most intense zone of infection, but cases have now appeared in the northeastern provinces of Haut-Uele and Tshopo. Lack of funding is an ongoing problem. UNICEF, the UN’s children’s agency, says it has received only 25% of the financing it needs. Healthcare workers in Ituri – who account for a significant number of Ebola cases – have gone on strike over unpaid wages and inadequate working conditions. Uganda, meanwhile, is an example of how the response can work. Its last remaining Ebola patient – out of 20 original cases – was discharged this week, starting a 42-day countdown to being declared Ebola-free. For more see: Ebola moving faster than the response, head of Africa CDC warns. Board of Peace drastically scales back Gaza reconstruction plans The US-backed Board of Peace has been desperately trying to signal that it is making progress toward some sort of reconstruction in the Gaza Strip in recent weeks. But the details in a new report from the Guardian are damning: The board has abandoned ambitious plans touted by US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner at the beginning of the year and is instead trying to launch one small pilot project in southern Gaza. If the project – a camp with temporary housing for a small fraction of Gaza’s population – gets off the ground, the timeline for anything actually happening isn’t until the end of the year. Even that looks to be far from certain. Israeli officials are increasingly talking about a return to war being inevitable, and there is growing speculation that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may launch a new campaign before elections in October. Already, Israel is continuing to carry out near-daily attacks, with over 1,120 people killed since last October’s ceasefire. For more on the on-the-ground reality taking shape, read our latest investigation: Israel’s campaign of erasure: The demolition of eastern Gaza. How an everyday commodity is fuelling the war in Sudan Profits from gum arabic – the natural stabiliser and thickener used in everything from soft drinks to pharmaceuticals and cosmetics – are being captured by the parties to Sudan’s war, according to a new report from the UN human rights office. Sudan is the world's largest producer of gum arabic, harvested from acacia trees, though most of the high-value processing and refining takes place in Europe. The report says the Sudanese army, the RSF, and other armed groups have all imposed taxes and fees on the trade, while the RSF has looted large quantities, using it to compensate fighters. Investigators found that gum arabic from conflict areas is routinely smuggled to neighbouring countries like Chad and South Sudan before entering global supply chains. Although the commodity is not as lucrative as gold, and for the RSF pales in comparison to support from external patrons, such as the UAE, the report says it is an illustrative case of how an everyday commodity can become entangled in conflict and human rights abuses. Will the US dangle aid to isolate the International Criminal Court? A year removed from imploding its foreign aid programme, the US appears to be using the threat of cutting assistance to pressure countries to shun the International Criminal Court. It’s part of what Secretary of State Marco Rubio said is a bid to “dismantle” the court. “No diplomatic option will be off-limits,” the State Department said in a 13 July announcement. This includes “increased scrutiny” of countries that rely on US assistance. Last year’s sudden cuts – predicted to lead to 9.4 million excess deaths by 2030, according to a Lancet study – have shrunk US aid funding. But the country still holds outsized influence. While successive US governments have painted the court as a threat to sovereignty, the ICC has never tried to prosecute an American. In fact, it’s criticised for focusing overwhelmingly on nationals of African countries. But with a growing list of actions that would appear to contravene international law – extrajudicial killings in striking alleged drug boats, or aggression on Iran, for example – the Trump administration seems to be raising a pre-emptive shield by attacking a court that could have the mandate to investigate. Is Venezuela becoming a new US colony? In what some have called a sign of the US’s “imperial overhaul” of Venezuela, Acting President Delcy Rodríguez’s government started talks with the country’s opposition. The Trump administration attacked Venezuela and abducted President Nicolás Maduro in January, but then allowed members of Maduro’s inner circle to remain in power. A report by The New York Times revealed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio now effectively “controls Venezuela’s finances, the distribution of its natural resources and its government”. The upcoming dialogue with the opposition fits into a three-phase plan for stabilisation, recovery, and transition that Rubio laid out after the January attack. In a sign of just who is in control, María Corina Machado, who was picked by a coalition of opposition parties to lead negotiations, has been sidelined by the US. Instead, the US State Department has tapped former lawmaker Dinorah Figuera to lead a process that is supposed to result in eventual elections. Nigerian jihadists turn to AI The technical prowess of jihadi groups in the Sahel is well documented – from the use of surveillance and attack drones to Elon Musk’s Starlink and cryptocurrencies. The adoption of generative AI, then, should come as no surprise. New research details how the jihadist movement in Nigeria has become adept at using AI operationally in attack planning, weapons troubleshooting, and the design of explosives. Initial training was delivered through transnational jihadist networks, but Nigerian groups now have dedicated AI teams staffed by trusted personnel drawn from senior operational and technical roles, including bomb-makers, gun specialists, and engineers. “Trial and error can kill you. AI gives you accuracy,” a recently demobilised ex-combatant explained to researcher Antonia Juelich. Weekend Read And finally… Ahmadinejad, the Israeli agent Operatives from Israel’s spy agency Mossad, including its chief, met several times with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad since 2023 in an effort to install the former Iranian president as a new leader for the country, according to a New York Times investigation. Staunchly anti-Zionist during his 2005-2013 presidency, Ahmadinejad reportedly distanced himself from Iran’s Islamic government in recent years after being blocked from running for additional terms. He even came to see the economic sanctions punishing Iran over its nuclear programme as an unacceptable burden, Haaretz has reported. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has quashed disagreements within his administration in order for the recruitment of Ahmadinejad to proceed. However, after being brought to a Mossad safehouse in Tehran amid US and Israeli strikes February, Ahmadinejad lost interest in the regime-change plan and absconded, and is now being held by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His public appearance in early July at the funeral of slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was his first in several months.