The US and Israel have made plans for us attacks against Iran after the American intermediate elections (NYT)

USA and Israel have made plans for further attacks against Iran after the US intermediate elections (NYT) The US and Israeli armies have developed specific plans for further attacks against Iran after the US intermediate elections, according to American officials and others informed about the deliberations. As the planning of a short but intense operation advances, the armed forces of the US and Israel have intensified exercises, conducting flights over Iraq to practice attack maneuvers, reports The New York Times. The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss further attacks, American officials stated. Among the targets would likely be Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, as well as its missile and drone arsenal. Some officials claim that a new series of large-scale attacks could push the Iranian economy to the brink and force the country to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict. However, there are reasons for skepticism that a new war would be more successful than the first phase of the intense attacks by the US and Israel, which took place between February and April. Those rounds of fighting led to an increase in energy prices and inflation globally, undermined security in the Middle East, and put considerable pressure on the Pentagon's interceptor missile stocks. Furthermore, it is not entirely certain that Trump will approve further attacks. Several times this year, he rejected plans to renew large-scale military operations, including this time when the armed forces of the US and Israel were almost ready to attack. All interviewed officials spoke on condition of anonymity to openly discuss military planning. Iranian officials promised that this time, they would retaliate by extending their targets beyond commercial ships and the energy infrastructure in the region, to data centers and submarine internet cables. It is said that the fighting will not be short or swift. While the United States is building a massive arsenal, which will be fully operational by the beginning of November, diplomatic efforts have continued, with American negotiators using the possibility of ending the war as leverage against Iran to gain progress on their demands regarding the nuclear program and control over the Strait of Hormuz. However, to date, Iranian negotiators have not shown willingness to make concessions regarding the nuclear program, insisting that this issue be postponed for a later stage of negotiations. Some American strategists are convinced that an intensive three-day campaign could cause enough economic damage to force Iran to change its position. However, American officials have often predicted the collapse of Iran, and other Western officials have noted that, to date, the Iranian government has managed to withstand the pressures exerted on its economy. "At this time of the war, what is clear is that the conventional war waged to date, as well as the severe economic sanctions and the current US naval blockade, have not managed to bring the regime to the negotiating table in a significant way," stated Dana Stroul, who held the position of senior official for Middle East policy within the Pentagon in the Biden administration. "They have not presented convincing arguments" Neither Trump nor Netanyahu "have presented convincing arguments regarding how the continuation of the war will change this strategic dilemma in a region that is increasingly unstable and marked by conflicts," Stroul stated, who currently works at the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy. The elections in Israel, which will take place on October 27th, could complicate plans. If Netanyahu loses, he will become interim prime minister and it will be difficult for him to launch a war, experts say. However, some analysts believe that Netanyahu might use the prospect of an imminent joint attack by the United States and Israel to force his rivals to join a national unity government to manage the war, which would extend his tenure in power. After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Netanyahu formed a national unity government that included some opposition members in a war cabinet to contribute to making decisions about national security. "He could use this to request the formation of an emergency government with broad representation, but he will face deep distrust from his political rivals," stated Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator and biographer of Netanyahu. "If Iran were to attack, it would be one thing, but launching an offensive attack would be extremely difficult." Officials state that there is a small possibility that Trump might decide to start the election campaign this month, but there are numerous political reasons why he is likely to wait until after the US elections, including his own promise at the beginning of this month not to launch any action before the vote. The United States will not have its full military resources—including three carriers, thousands of naval guns, fighter jets, and special operations forces—until the beginning of November. The US Army prefers to conduct attacks under the cover of night, and in the beginning of next month, the period of darkness will be longer in Iran. There are also fears that the war could escalate into a larger conflict. On Wednesday, the US Department of State ordered government employees who do not fulfill emergency duties and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, amid the continued attacks by the Houthi militia, supported by Iran, on targets in the country. A White House official stated on Wednesday that the administration is not making comments on military plans "that may or may not exist." Trump, the official added, is considering all options to ensure that Iran cannot acquire nuclear weapons. Some officials state that oil refining and infrastructure will be circumscribed, as Trump strongly wants to prevent a further rise in gasoline prices. Both the US and Israeli armies are developing plans for operations against Iran's nuclear program, according to sources informed about these endeavors. These could include an attack on the Pickaxe mountain, a deep-sea nuclear facility that Iranians call Kooh Kolang. Trump stated last week that he is considering the use of a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb against the mountain. Official sources state that the American leader is fascinated by this weapon, partly due to its nickname, "Mother of all bombs." However, armament specialists state that the MOAB explodes above the ground, producing a massive shockwave, and it is unlikely to destroy an underground base like Pickaxe, which is built of granite. Furthermore, military officials warn that the bomb must be launched from an MC-130 transport aircraft at reduced speed, which would be vulnerable to Iranian anti-air fire. Israel and the United States were on the verge of launching an attack on Iran at the beginning of this month, but Trump once again decided, at the last moment, to postpone the attack, according to some defense officials from the US and Israel who are familiar with the details. The decision was made shortly before the operation began, after both armies made extensive preparations and placed their air forces in the highest state of alert. "It will affect the American people" Repeated planning efforts, followed by Trump's decisions against further attacks, have caused "a state of constant confusion" among military planners, stated a commander who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, as they try to remain prepared to implement any military option that the White House leader decides in the coming weeks. In each stage of the conflict so far, the Iranian leadership has adopted an increasingly less conciliatory attitude, convinced that the ultimate goal of the United States and Israel is to overthrow their government. The new supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, remains an enigma to American and Israeli intelligence officials. Some officials state that he is not as powerful as his father, who was killed at the beginning of the war, and that the key decisions are made by the hardline members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran. Iranian officials state that they are aware of the US war plans and have established their own targets and tactics. Peiman Salehi, a political analyst in Tehran, stated that in the event of an attack on Pickaxe, a part of Iran's plans to retaliate would consist of striking the major oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, including Aramco, as this would cause an immediate increase in oil and energy prices. "The war has made us understand that the best leverage to press Trump is the increase in oil and energy prices, because this will affect the American people," stated Salehi. Mahdi Mohammadi, the principal advisor to the Iranian negotiator, General Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, stated on social media this week that the idea that the United States could end a new round of attacks against Iran within 72 hours is a "fantasy" and that Iran will decide when the war ends. He mentioned that Trump stated in February that the war would last two weeks. "Our attacks will be more intense, more creative, and more diverse," Mohammadi stated. "We are determined and confident, and our plans are well-laid out."