Trump is Being Confronted by his Worst Nightmare

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is Donald Trump’s worst nightmare: a banker with political power. Let’s start with the banker part of this nightmare. For thirteen years, Carney worked on international finance at Goldman Sachs; for five years, he headed the Bank of Canada as they responded to the 2008 financial crisis; and for eight years he was in charge of the Bank of England as the UK debated, approved, and negotiated the terms of Brexit. And in all that time, Carney developed and honed his analytical skills. Bankers are big on two things above all: hard data and binding commitments. If you want a loan from a banker, you can pull out all your glossy PR pieces around with all their gauzy pictures of how wonderful the future will be if you get this loan, but until you show the banker hard numbers, you aren’t going to get that loan. Similarly, bankers want to see how you have handled your binding commitments in the past. Have you paid previous loans according to the terms of the agreements? Have you lived up to your past promises, or have you tried to wiggle out of them through imaginary loopholes or simply walking away from them? You can see why bankers are Trump’s biggest nightmare. As a private businessman, Trump’s failure to show hard data that would back up his glossy PR and his objective record of not living up to the terms of the agreements he signed led to bank after bank showing him the door. “No, we’re done. If you want a loan, go find some other sucker to give it to you.” It wasn’t envy or personal animus, but basic banking logic. Trump had proven to be a double failure through his dependency on fuzzy numbers and his overall untrustworthy in living up to his contracts. As bad as that is for Trump, it is the addition of Carney’s political power that makes Trump really sweat. Where Trump blusters and threatens, Carney has a way of being able to work with others by leaning on that insistence on hard data and binding commitments. He and his Liberal allies are miles (or kilometers) apart from Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford and other Conservative leaders on a lot of policy issues, but they both know that if they can justify their positions with solid numbers and can come to an agreement with each other, they will live up to whatever was decided together. In Carney’s late Friday announcement describing the downfall of negotiations, one piece has gotten precious little attention from the media. There’s been a lot of talk about various items that became dealbreakers, especially as Carney laid them out in his Saturday speech, but not much notice of his earlier point when he told his negotiators to come home. From the CBC: Carney said Canada went into the trade talks fully aware the U.S. had changed its spots and had embarked on a mission to reshape its trading relationships to one where it used previous “economic integration as a weapon.” He noted that the Trump administration has justified tariffs on Canada with a continually changing rationale that began with fentanyl and since moved to wildfire smoke, dairy quotas, the certification of U.S. aircraft and Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s anti-tariff ads that quoted former U.S. president Ronald Reagan, all of which violate the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. Through the Trump administration’s actions, Carney said, Canada has come to realize “that sometimes, its signature was written in pencil.” This is not hyperbole, but a cold assessment of hard data on past commitments. Leaving aside the bankruptcies and broken contracts that litter Trump’s private business track record and looking solely at his actions as the US president, that cold assessment does not look good. Trump unilaterally tore up NAFTA in his first term, only to realize that the US still needed it, so Trump tweaked it a little and rebranded it USMCA. In his second term, Trump tore up USMCA, wondering what kind of idiot negotiated such a bad agreement. (Yes, self-awareness is not one of Trump’s strengths. Why do you ask?) Then there’s Trump’s backing away from NATO’s firm Article Five commitment to mutual aid of all its members, unilaterally tying the US commitment to Trump’s perception of whether the nation attacked has “paid up”. Trump made the unconditional terms of the NATA treaty conditional. Again and again, Trump record is to break agreements. Bankers don’t like that kind of screwing around with contracts. International diplomats and politicians don’t like that abdication of national commitments, either. So Trump shouldn’t be surprised that Carney — a banker with national and international political clout — will not look kindly on Trump’s dealmaking. The NYT has a longish story outlining their research into the breakdown in trade talks between the US and Canada [gift link], and a couple of things stand out. First, while the Canadian team was relatively united (including consultations between Carney and the provincial leaders), the Trump team was bifurcated between US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick. Greer’s portfolio did not cover all aspects of US/Canadian trade, and required Lutnick’s participation in the negotiations. This did not go well. Last Monday afternoon, with the talks still underway, Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, and Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian trade minister, dodged reporters waiting in the Washington humidity as they left a roughly two-hour meeting at the Commerce Department. Canadian negotiators were used to working closely with Mr. Greer, who oversees U.S. trade deals and helped negotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement during Mr. Trump’s first term. But many of the issues that Canadians cared about most were instead the purview of the man who stayed inside in the air conditioning: Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce. Mr. Lutnick, a hard-charging former bond broker who has known Mr. Trump for decades, oversees the administration’s tariffs on cars, trucks, steel and aluminum. And in the coming days, he would take a hard line on those topics, issues that ultimately took down the talks. Second, this division stood in harsh contrast to the Canadian side of things. It’s not that the Canadians didn’t have internal disagreements – Carney, the Liberal PM, and the Conservatives leaders across the country had different negotiating priorities, but these were nowhere near as divisive as those between Lutnick and Greer. What Greer and the Canadian negotiators had worked toward, Lutnick blew up. But what finally tanked the talks, and what will make things difficult for Trump going forward, is that Carney has the backing of ordinary Canadians of all political stripes. For example, look at the shift in Canadian vacation and travel spending: For decades, heading south meant one thing for most Canadians: the United States. That has changed dramatically over the past year and a half. Frustrated by tariffs, “51st state” rhetoric, and a political climate that feels increasingly hostile, Canadian travelers have redirected billions of dollars away from American hotels, theme parks, and shopping malls toward destinations that feel warmer in more ways than one. This isn’t a quiet, temporary dip either. It’s one of the most sustained and statistically documented travel boycotts in recent memory, and the money hasn’t disappeared, it’s simply gone somewhere else. From the Caribbean to the Canadian Rockies, entire tourism economies are now feeling the ripple effects of a shift that started as political protest and turned into a genuine reshaping of how Canadians vacation. This kind of broad backing from the Canadian people is what made it possible for Carney to order his negotiators home. My Canadian friends tell me that if Trump could somehow get a trade agreement that got Canadian liquor stores to put Kentucky bourbon back on their shelves, those bottles would sit there gathering dust. Will there be economic hardship for the Canadians? Absolutely. But here’s the thing: Canadians take their national anthem seriously. Last winter, I was watching an hockey game and chills went up my spine as I watched the pre-game ceremonies. This wasn’t a match between the US and Canada national teams, nor an NHL playoff match. It was an ordinary match played in Canada between one of the NHL’s Canadian teams and a team from the US. It was being played when Trump’s bluster attacking Canada was very much in the news, with Trump’s repeated remarks that Canada should be the 51st state, references to “governor Carney,” and escalating on-and-off-again tariff threats. Before matches like this with teams from two countries, both national anthems are sung. That night at that hockey game, the singer was a local television personality, and when she sang the US anthem, it was obvious she had a very nice voice as well. Her solo voice was greeted not with boos, but with a respectful silence for the anthem of the visiting team. After it was over, and she prepared to sing “O Canada,” the whole feel of the room shifted. Canadians love singing their anthem at games like this, but that night they were in full voice. The singer was amplified, but the crowd’s combined voices were just as strong, and grew stronger as the song moved along. The singer could feel this, and so as the anthem approached its end, she pulled the microphone away from her lips and became a conductor of sorts for the crowd as the last lines burst from every throat: God keep our land glorious and free! O Canada, we stand on guard for thee. O Canada, we stand on guard for thee. That’s when the difference between the two anthems became stunningly obvious to me. Musically speaking, the US anthem tells the story of outnumbered and outgunned Americans being inspired by the flag that continues to wave despite all the enemy’s bombs and rockets. The Canadian anthem, on the other hand, is a promise made the Canadian people to their nation. Yes, the US anthem can be inspiring, but the Canadian national anthem is a commitment between the singers and their country. *We* stand on guard for our nation, says the song, say the singers. (I searched long and hard to find video of that evening, but came up empty – sorry!) And this wasn’t just one exuberant song sung one night a couple of month ago, as recent numbers back this up: Three-in-four Canadians are endorsing the Carney government’s decision to walk away from trade negotiations with the United States late Friday night, confirming that long-expressed national resolve and desire to see Canadian negotiators take a “hard line” with Washington was more than theoretical. Yes, folks in BC in the west have different priorities than the Quebecois in the east. Yes, the folks in the oil fields have different priorities than the timber workers and the auto workers. But they sing the same anthem and share the same commitment to standing guard for their country. Yes, the various politicians are pressing Carney’s government for more information and proposing different approaches going forward. But they *all* take that anthem seriously, especially the promise at the end. Trump has seriously misjudged Carney, perceiving his quiet, bankerly negotiating style for weakness. He’s learning — too late — that Carney is not Doug and Bob McKenzie in a suit. What Trump is learning is that this banker/politician is his worst nightmare, because Carney and other other political leaders of all stripes in Canada know they have the backing of overwhelming numbers of ordinary Canadians. Trump can only wish for support like that, and his living nightmare is that he knows he doesn’t have it. There is a performance of O Canada sung in Cree, then French, then English, backed by an online choir (it was put out in 2020 at the height of Covid). I won’t try to link it here, but the organization was Revv52 and you can find it online if you choose. It brings tears to my eyes. Okay, so I love this piece, eh? and it’s like inspiring to me. But….. BC is not Alberta, which is the province which suffers most greatly from US-envy. True, some up-country BC-ers are serious MAGA followers, but Alberta’s rural voters are in a whole other league of MAGA-adoration. And in both provinces, the conservative rightists are predominantly rural. The cities are a whole different world. Even in Alberta, Calgary and Edmonton routinely elect Social Democrats. In BC, David Eby’s government (NDP – social democrats) is on somewhat shaky grounds after almost a decade in power, but even there, the MAGA-type conservatives are unlikely to be able to create a credible, electable government. I don’t want to get too far into the weeds, but part of the problem there is that for over 50 years, the Liberal Party, which on the federal level is centre-left, in BC was strongly centre-RIGHT, and so many centrist voters don’t really trust them. Lately, some of them have been injecting themselves into the Conservative Party, hoping to drag it back towards the so-called “centre.” I strongly doubt whether they’ll be able to achieve that in time for the next election. So yeah, BC is different than Alberta, eh? Helpful for the uninitiated, or for those with an irrational dislike of poutine. But Peterr was contrasting British Columbia with Quebec. Alberta doesn’t enter into it. BC is definitely different than Alberta. Absolutely. But with the events of this past week, even folks in Alberta are calling “elbows up.” From an NYT piece, outlining the cost of the breakdown in these negotiations (especially in Canada), [gift link] with emphasis added: When the head of the Forest Products Association is backing Carney on this, that says a lot. Not that different. I live in Alberta, and we’re rallying around the flag just like everyone else. As background, the Alberta government is having a referendum, on whether to have a referendum on Alberta separating from Canada. Yes, a referendum on a referendum. That push was started before the Trumpocolypse. Support for separation was 30%ish at its peak, and is now below 20% – and dropping. It’s mostly a rural thing, and the provincial gov’t relies on rural votes (it is the most American of provinces after all), which is the only reason it’s happening at all. Quebec’s separatists have said there will not be a referendum there until after the Trumpocolypse, at the earliest. Support has been draining away there, too. Trump has successfully united Canada in an unprecedented way. Mark Carney is playing this very well, and even the Calgary conservatives who fund the provincial party are happy it’s him. BC and Washington state have a very symbiotic relationship. A lot of people on both sides of the border will be pissed off at Trump’s irresponsible and intentional torching of the trade talks with Canada. yup. there was finally an uptick in Canadians coming back down into WA State and now – poof! The WA border stores are probably done for. I’m traveling with several Canadians. They realize that Trump doesn’t speak for a significant majority of the country. They wonder why we seem unable to contain the maniac. The more I try to explain the reasons: racism, the propaganda networks, the lust for power by tech billionaires, the “evangelical” movement, etc, the more these sound like lame excuses. We have a chance to send a strong message in the midterms. Failure to do so will send us into very dark places. The primary reason Trump can’t be contained is the Republican party, which has been corrupted and/or physically threatened into abject cowardice by Trump, MAGA and the tech bros. Trump could be impeached and removed from office tomorrow if Republicans in Congress valued the well-being of this country above their own. That’s what patriotism is and the Canadians are giving us a lesson in it. Yes, but Trump IS the Republican Party. He will keep control of it with all he can and for as long as he can. I hope it dies with him! The NY Times in an editorial today called on Congress and the courts to rein in Trump. Maybe the editors have been in a cave hibernation for almost 50 years because today’s Republican Party is nothing but Trump bootlickers. PET, Pierre Elliot Trudeau, former Canadian Prime Minister, in 1970 put Canada under the War Measures Act where freedoms and liberties were removed for a while and the military was put on the streets of the province of Quebec. Yet Parliament would not “contain the maniac Trudeau.” Trudeau was the father of former PM Justin Trudeau and also a beat his wife after his wife attended a Rolling Stones orgie at the Royal York, in Toronto, after one of the Rolling Stones’ concerts there. “We have a chance to send a strong message in the midterms. Failure to do so will send us into very dark places.” Message may be blowing in the wind, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cvawK5NS3k Let’s work hard to make sure it’s not blowing in the wind. The counter-tariffs announced today clearly target the economies of Maine (lumber and pulp,fish), Ohio (cars,steel), Michigan (cars), Wisconsin (dairy,motorcycles) and Texas (steel,dairy). All of these are battleground states for the Senate and/or governorship. One hopes that the Democratic attack ads write themselves. No “deal” or agreement with Trump is worth anything, ever. He’s the definition of bad faith. Aggressive bad faith. Even gangsters and mafia have some sort of code to adhere to. Trump has none. “That’s when the difference between the two anthers…” I think you mean “anthems”? Unless you are talking about flowers, then you are correct, Sir! Fixed. TY. “Anthers”? It is obvious, it should have been ‘antlers’ ! What else is Canada famous for? [Moderator’s note: see your earlier comment at 3:16 pm ET — this comment is number 4, same problem. /~Rayne #tu] RIP, Dolly Parton, at 80. One of the great humanitarians, entertainers, and role models. https://www.the-independent.com/arts-entertainment/music/news/dolly-parton-death-age-cause-b2841515.html Damn. She’s going to be missed, greatly. (If you’re going to name an airport, she’d be a good person to name one for.) Dolly was a shining light and not just because of her amazing talent. She did more good in this world than we’ll ever know. For some reason, out of the blue, Dolly Parton popped into my thoughts yesterday and again early this morning. At the time I thought, “I wonder how Dolly is doing?” So, I was taken aback to hear the news. RIP, Dolly. Thank you for everything you did to help other people! Ah, shucks. Thus is sad news indeed. Howe long before Trump shit-tweets something crass and denigrating about her legacy? (On a selfish note, our toddler granddaughter Jolene will never get to meet the fabled artist.) Trump ordered flags to be at half staff for a week, in honor of Dolly. So, based on the article below, maybe he should re-evaluate Whiskey Pete: “Never shy at expressing her Christian faith, Parton was also a public supporter of the LGBTQ community who advocated for marriage equality and spoke up in defense of transgender people.” “I keep saying: If you’re the fine Christian that you think you are, why are you judging people,” Parton said during a 2017 interview with Larry King. “That’s God’s job.” https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/dolly-parton-county-music-icon-dies-80-rcna236277 “Dolly Parton, country music icon, dies at 80” – 8/25/26 Glad I went to see Ms Parton on her farewell tour. Wish she had received the Gershwin Prize for songwriting as I believe she would have appreciated that honor more than any other since she identified most as a “song teller.” Dolly should lie in State from 9 to 5 A lot of USians are backing Carney, too. We think Donny has lots whatever sense he still had. Megalomania. The Canadiens aren’t the only ones wondering why in the world we cannot do anything to hand-cuff Trump and stop this insane march toward authoritarianism, the splintering of the international order and total incompetence in governance. NO ONE alive today around the world will ever look at the United States of America the way they did when we brought peace and justice back to the world after World War II, or when we elected Barack Obama as the 44th POTUS after our sordid history of over 150 years of slavery and mistreatment of people of color. The reason is not just the vulgarity of Trump and MAGA, or that over 70M American citizens who voted for him, (TWICE !). The reason is that once Trump was sworn in the second time and it became clear that his only goals were self-dealing and the destruction of American democracy and decency, NOT ONE American institution or citizen put forth the actions and effort to remove him from power and save the world. Brazil knew what to do with Bolsonaro and South Korea knew what to do with Yoon Suk Yeoh. Is the USA “exceptional” because we are so impotent in the face of a tyrant ? My late brother spent most of his life in Sault Ste Marie Ontario. I have just heard a distraught Republican Michigan Senator describing the destruction of the economy of the two Saults (Ontario and MIchigan). He tried to be loyal but was clearly in despair. I remember when things went down hill after 9/11 and the border got slightly disrupted – I, as a UK citizen, had simply driven across the bridge before that. Soo Michigan never recovered from that. Now if this madness is allowed to continue it will become a ghost town, and on the Ontario side the creeping decline will continue. How sad. If Trump is going to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America we will have to update the acronym for remembering the Great Lakes from HOMES to SHAME. Had to look up Doug and Bob McKenzie as I never heard of them, and see they’re comedians. I thought you meant Doug and Rob Ford, i don’t think they mean to be comedians, but like Trump, they were and are. I should have known better than thinking you erred on their names. Yeah, I’m old. I’d say you’re well-informed. BTW, O Canada en français is a whole other anthem. The English language version came later and tells a different story- not about ancestors, faith and the cross. The French language original is a beautiful song. Commonly a portion is sung in each official language. [Welcome back to emptywheel. Please use the SAME USERNAME and EMAIL ADDRESS each time you comment so that community members get to know you. You attempted to publish this comment using what may be your RL name, triggering auto-moderation; it has been edited to reflect your established username. You also used a different email address which doesn’t match the one on your first comment; it has also been edited. We don’t even ask for a working/valid email address, only that you use the same one each time you comment. Please check your browser’s cache and auto-fill; future comments may not publish if username and/or email address does not match. /~Rayne]