Strategic foresight should guide the Philippine energy system

Strategic foresight should guide the Philippine energy system In the recent Inquirer ESG Edge Connect, a forum series to advance sustainability and ESG, UP Diliman College of Engineering Associate Dean for Public Engagement Professor Rowaldo “Wali” D. del Mundo offered a compelling framework to challenge the convention for determining backup power supply or reserves. That is to do probabilistic energy capacity planning. In context, he said that the power supply in the Philippines has historically been tight during the summer months to the point where it has become routine for journalists to ask the Department of Energy at the start of each year if there would be sufficient supply to avoid grid-level blackouts. While the answer is almost always in the affirmative, Professor Wali observed that even if the power grid has its existing generation resources and power delivery network (“adequacy”), it ultimately depends on “security”, or whether those assets can “provide continuous operation despite disturbances and outages”. The methodology of a probabilistic approach is to determine the chances of breakdowns of dispatchable power plants based on their past performance. With a long-term view, the approach would inform energy planners which type and size of power mix and network would work best going forward, given past conditions. Evolving conditions — like rising variable renewable energy penetration and externalities such as climate change and seasonal weather — add another layer of complexity and uncertainty that modifies the probabilities of the centralized dispatchable energy system. Considering the influx of more variable renewable energy, for example, statistical probability can be used to plan for the amounts of backup reserves needed in order to maintain a desired level of service reliability. Still, the flaw in probabilistic planning is how future outcomes are predicted based on what transpired in the past. But past performance may not be indicative of future results. Considering that we live in a more complex, fast-paced, and uncertain world subject to black swan-type shocks, we’ll need strategic foresight and some “thinking outside the box”. We should adopt nonlinear and scenario-based planning methods that are grounded in future scenarios rather than just past data and assumptions. In practice, planners can set a standard of energy security (for example, one hour of allowable outage per year) and the model can recommend a statistically computed amount of energy reserves needed to meet this requirement. In effect, this can inform industry planners, regulators, and investors on how much to build in terms of generation, transmission, and distribution. This is made more important by the fact that these investments take years in advance to put into motion, sometimes 5 to 10 years. In that regard, Professor Wali opined that today’s failures in the power grid are a culmination of what was and was not done five years ago. Considering today’s issues, the Philippine grid doesn’t just need more energy capacity and a diversity of options, but also more and better planning. Nonetheless, probabilistic planning and strategic foresight can only give so much. Better execution and cooperation are what can get the country across the energy tightrope. And yet, that is also easier said than done. Execution is made more difficult by the compounded issues, delays, and difficulties of years past. But this is where foresight can come in once again by guiding the industry in anticipating contingencies and preparing plans in case of delays or roadblocks. It is also where cooperation is most needed to get the job done, which, from the very beginning, has always been to provide reliable, affordable, and accessible energy to Filipinos. * * * Suiee Suarez is AboitizPower vice president for corporate affairs