Ukraine war hits civil air traffic in Russia

Ukraine War Affects Civil Air Traffic in Russia October 22, 2026 For months, flight disruptions have become more frequent at Moscow airports due to Ukrainian drone attacks. As the independent Russian investigative and exile medium "Agentstwo" reports, the airports Domodedovo, Sheremetjewo, Shukowski, and Vnukovo had to suspend flight operations almost daily in October. On some days, the airports were closed for up to nine hours. At the beginning of September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced his intention to close the airspace over Russia. "Today we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who continues to use the most important Russian airports: Russian airspace is entirely unsafe," warned Zelenskyy. The next day, Kyiv issued a corresponding statement to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Ukrainian airspace has been closed since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022. Can Ukraine paralyze airports? The so-called "Tapestry" plan, a special emergency safety protocol of the Russian aviation authority Rosaviazija, is used to immediately block airspace over a certain region or around affected airports. Once the plan is declared, drastic restrictions apply to all air traffic. This is in addition to situations where an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the air. "If there is a military threat, a certain section of airspace is blocked, and this 'Tapestry' is declared. Essentially, every drone poses a military threat," says aviation expert Oleksandr Laneckij to DW. He recalls how the Yemeni Islamist Houthis managed to paralyze Saudi Arabia. "I think the military capabilities of Ukraine far exceed those of the Houthis," Laneckij says. He expects that in a broader war, it should not be difficult for Ukrainians to not only massively disrupt the Moscow air traffic hub but also to paralyze it. The independent military expert Jan Matwejew is of a similar opinion. Even if Zelenskyy's announcement of a complete closure of airports has not yet materialized, the Ukrainian armed forces "hold onto this idea." "To block the airspace and trigger the 'Tapestry' plan, you only need simple drones that do not need to have a warhead or a large range," the expert says. The Ukrainian industry would produce dozens or even hundreds of such combat-capable long-range drones daily alone. Ukraine could therefore have the necessary resources to paralyze the airports. On October 15, Simon Shuster of the US magazine "The Atlantic" wrote, citing informed sources, that the Ukrainian operation to paralyze Russian airspace "has just begun." Can Russia avert the danger? Military analyst Matwejew notes that the Russian air defense does not fully reach the Ukrainian drones that penetrate the capital region. "If it were possible to shoot them down, they would already do so," he says. If the Russian armed forces had additional reserves to reinforce air defense, they would have long since deployed them. Aviation expert Laneckij does not rule out that the threshold for declaring the "Tapestry" plan could be lowered in Russia. However, he warns that this would bring additional dangers. The risk would increase that a crash, like with the aircraft of the Azerbaijani airline AZAL, could be repeated. The aircraft was apparently accidentally hit by a Russian air defense missile in December 2024, which was being used to defend against drones. What Risks Exist for Aviation? Jan Matwejew also points out the danger that air defense might target a civilian aircraft instead of a military target. Since the end of 2024, when the AZAL aircraft was shot down, nothing has fundamentally changed in the Russian air defense, he says. In an engagement against a drone flying at a low altitude, the target is visually identified and shot down with a machine gun. The danger to aircraft is extremely low, unless they happen to fly in immediate proximity. In contrast, when using anti-aircraft missiles, the risk for civil aviation increases enormously, says the military expert. A missile can have defects that are practically unavoidable in mass production, and can reorient itself towards an aircraft flying nearby. Matwejew points to the global practice of imposing safety measures like the "Tapestry" plan when there are dangers in the airspace because air defense cannot guarantee the safety of civilian aircraft during engagements. Furthermore, according to Matwejew, the disruptive drones do not necessarily have to carry explosives. Even a collision of an aircraft with them can have serious consequences. "A drone reaching Moscow from Ukraine must be quite large. It weighs tens of kilograms," he explains. In the summer of 2023, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked the airport of the Russian city of Pskov, where both military and civilian aircraft were stationed. In mid-October of this year, debris from a drone fell on the grounds of the Sochi airport on the Black Sea. But the Russian armed forces also attack Ukrainian airports. Zelenskyy confirmed attacks on the airports of Kyiv and Boryspil near the capital at the beginning of September. What About Foreign Airlines? Whether foreign airlines could suspend their flights to Russia due to the risks depends on three factors, according to aviation expert Laneckij: the actual military dangers, the level of demand, and the cost of insurance. There could be problems with insurance. According to Laneckij, companies could classify the risks as so high that they would significantly raise their insurance premiums for flights to Russia. This would cause ticket prices to soar. The competition on the Russian market has already declined because many airlines are no longer present. This has led to increased demand for flight tickets among the remaining foreign airlines, the expert believes. "Whether they stay or not depends on the price they have to pay for the real danger." Adaptation from Russia: Markian Ostaptschuk