ADP Reports Private Payrolls Increase by 38,000. BLS Reports Friday

The Econoday consensus for Friday is +55,000. Private Employers Add 38,000 in August ADP reports Private Employers Add 38,000 in August - Private employers posted their slowest pace of job creation since January. Manufacturing, professional services, and information shed jobs. - Education and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring. - Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP: “Pay can tell us a lot about today’s choppy hiring. To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it’s slowing, and for whom. Once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI’s effects on jobs.” ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size ADP Change by Employer Size Detail - 1-19: 20,000 - 20-49: -17,000 - 50-249: 2,000 - 250-499: -2,000 - 500+: 34,000 - Small: 3,000 - Medium: 0 - Large: 34,000 ADP vs BLS Private Payrolls ADP offers little insight to BLS nonfarm payrolls on a month-over-month basis. Over time, the series converge because both ADP and the BLS have significant revisions. ADP vs Nonfarm Payrolls Change Year-Over-Year In July 2026, ADP reported a year-over-year gain in private employment of 1.593 million. The BLS reported 635,000. That’s a year-over year difference of 958,000. But what numbers do you believe? My answer is neither of them. QCEW Year-Over Year The latest quarterly Census of Employment and wages (QCEW) give us a believable, but lagging set of numbers. QCEW is through March of 2026. March 2025 was 154,686,000 and March 2026 was 154,772. The year-over-year QCEW change is 86,000. QCEW, ADP, BLS Year-Over-Year March 2026 - QCEW: 86,000 - ADP Private: 708,000 - BLS Private: 461,000 - BLS Nonfarm: 211,000 There is only one set of numbers above that you can have any faith in and that is the QCEW report. ADP is miles high. I will have a full QCEW report shortly. Will the Fed Hike in September? Unless the BLS report on Friday is miserable and the next CPI report is tame, the Fed is going to hike on September 16. Related Posts August 31, 2026: Political Realities May Force the Fed to Hike in September It will be a stretch for the Fed to pause for many reasons, not just the CPI. September 1, 2026: Global Bond Market Rout Continues, Fed’s Barr Ponders Decisive Action Oil is up again along with bond market yields. Fed rate hike is more likely. September 1, 2026: September Fed Rate Hike Odds Shift Dramatically Back Towards a Hike It’s been a complete round trip in the last month. meanwhile: Netherlands moves billions in gold to London in ‘crisis preparedness’ move https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgy51xlz39o heard that on public radio today. remember when france came to NYC to take back their gold before 1971. the arabs did NOT. so they reacted by placing embargo on oil. payback for getting screwed by amerikan default on gold convertability with dollars. I really don’t trust any of the governments data. “It’s not inflation… it’s the boomers” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1KomlztSuA Skip to 14:20 mark Chapter 8. news flash. assholes in amerika for the past 4 to 10 generations including the pre boomers and post boomers keep voting for assholes to do asshole things. democracy works. Wow, that’s enlightening. I never thought of that. folks hate to admit democracy works. it means looking in the mirror. in amerika we see trump and schumer and biden and nancy……… Unless the BLS report on Friday is miserable and the next CPI report is tame, the Fed is going to hike on September 16. That will add significantly to the head wind velocity for republicans in the midterms The Fed is in a tough place. Inflation is up, but it is not being driven by an economy running hot. It is being driven by a wildly incompetent administration. Raising rates will slow an already slow economy, but won’t do a thing to fix inflation because its being driven by deficit spending, tariffs and an idiotic war. Don’t know how you define “an economy running hot”? But unemployment rate is 4.1% (before this Friday)? And real GDP for Q3 is currently estimated at 4.8% growth (from GDPNow)? Estimates could be off, of course, but in a historical context, these statistics portray a recent economy far from “slow”.