Will the Very Able Caine Expose the Devil Inside Trump’s Garden of Paradise?

WSJ reports it received a subpoena for the sources behind one of a number of stories reporting Dan Caine’s February warnings to Trump in real time. The Wall Street Journal received grand jury subpoenas dated March 4 for records of Journal reporters. The request related to a Feb. 23 article that reported that Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and others at the Pentagon warned the president about the risks of an extended military campaign against Iran. Other news outlets, including Axios and the Washington Post, published similar stories that day. Trump launched the war five days later, on Feb. 28. In a statement, Ashok Sinha, the chief communications officer of Dow Jones, which publishes the Journal, said: “The government’s subpoenas to The Wall Street Journal and our reporters represent an attack on constitutionally protected newsgathering. We will vigorously oppose this effort to stifle and intimidate essential reporting.” Representatives of the Washington Post and Axios declined to comment. Last month, officials said, Trump was specifically angry about an April 7 article in the New York Times that outlined how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pitched Trump on bombing Iran. That reporting provided vivid detail about senior-staff meetings on the topic, including ones in the secretive Situation Room. It described how U.S. intelligence officials skeptically viewed Netanyahu’s argument for a war that would end in regime change. A spokeswoman for the Times declined to comment. In recent months, prosecutors have sent subpoenas to media organizations as well as to email and phone providers seeking information in leak inquiries, according to people familiar with the requests. Much of the WSJ story, as well as this CNN story matching parts of the WSJ one, cover more recent reporting on the rescue of two airmen shot down inside Iran, at least one of which Trump labeled as “treason” and ordered DOJ to investigate. I may return to that, but it’s worth noting that the rescue on which those stories was based was detailed in real time by OSINT investigators and Middle Eastern sources, with substantive details provided by former Special Forces soldier turned journalist Jack Murphy. The rescue story was in no way exclusively reliant on senior level access journalism. The earlier set of stories, about Dan Caine, presumably were. And for all the alarm about further infringements on journalism, which are utterly justified and will be others’ focus, it’s the access journalism angle of this that make the tactics interesting. Trump could be, wittingly or not, investigating his top aides. Indeed, given that DOJ has been investigating at least some of these stories for two months, it’s worth asking whether Trump believes some of his White House aides are working the press for political or influence operation reasons. The tactics of leak hunting This table summarizes three known earlier stories — first Axios, then WaPo and the WSJ one targeted by the subpoena — plus the April 7 NYT one that WSJ describes to be a particular focus of the witch hunt. There are important differences between these stories: Axios: The Axios one, by Jared-and-Bibi-whisperer Barak Ravid and Trump-whisperer Marc Caputo, does describe Caine’s warnings about the war, but far more vaguely than subsequent stories. It doesn’t even vocalize the concern about munitions shortages that shows up in all other stories (a topic about which Whiskey Pete Hegseth promised to investigate Mark Kelly again yesterday). It does, however, note that CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper was not personally involved in briefing, as his predecessor would have been. Lindsey Graham, who would have been briefed on the negotiations, was probably among the sources for both his on the record quotes but other parts of the story, because Axios had just done an on-the-record interview with him. Given Ravid’s centrality to the reporting of this war, it might be little more than his daily chronicle of the negotiations, or his serial attempt to make Jared and Witkoff look like legitimate negotiators rather than the incompetent, conflicted flunkies they are. But Caputo’s stories more often air the Administration’s inner spats. WaPo: The WaPo one, by diplomatic beat reporter John Hudson and DOD beat reporter Tara Copp, is far more detailed. It describes specifics, including the attendees, of a meeting a week earlier (which was around February 17), at which Caine issued warnings. It also described the warnings Caine raised at DOD, possibly to people like Cooper and his staff (who are not mentioned in this story). Its report of warnings focuses on: - Overall complexity - The risk of US casualties - The shortages of munitions (listed specifically) - The lack of support from allies — which, in context, focuses on Arab allies unwilling to support attacks from bases on their territory WSJ is coy about whether WaPo also received a subpoena, though CNN states that, “other news outlets have also received subpoenas in recent months [but …] have chosen not to comment” about that, yet. WaPo would have specific constraints given the ongoing Hannah Natanson fight. It’s worth noting, too, that these stories were published in the wake of DOJ’s first setback in that Natanson fight, when Magistrate Judge William Porter admonished DOJ because they didn’t mention the Privacy Protection Act, then ruled against DOJ conducting the search themselves. While this DOJ has a habit of doubling down on adverse decisions, it is also the case that Porter’s ruling should have guided their subsequent targeting of journalists. The WaPo story, to a much greater degree than the Axios one, seems intended to publicize the specific warnings Caine made, possibly in an attempt to stave off the war, possibly as a CYA maneuver. WSJ: The WSJ story, which we know was targeted for subpoena, was written by three NatSec journalists, including two (Alex Ward and Shelby Holliday) who were bylined on WSJ’s fairly comprehensive rescue story. Its warnings focus on DOD concerns: along with the missile shortages, the extended deployment of the USS Ford, Iran’s anti-aircraft defenses, and likely Iranian targeting of Israel and US bases. While WSJ doesn’t say when the Murdoch rag received the subpoena (that is, the story allows for the possibility that DOJ sat on the subpoena for some time), they date it to March 4, just 9 days after the story was published. Like the WaPo story, the WSJ sources may have been attempting to stave off the war and/or to CYA if and when specific things would go bad. NYT: WSJ’s story of the leak investigation repeats what earlier reporting did: Trump was obsessed about the retrospective and heavily narrativized story Maggie and Swan published two months into the war. The NYT story focuses more on Bibi’s bullshit attempt to preempt concerns, and in that context, it is the only one that raises the biggest predictable failure (of three, with the other two being attacks on Arab allies and the munition shortages) that has come to pass: Iran’s success closing the Strait of Hormuz. Because it details so much about the relations with Israel, it also far more obviously includes classified information. From a leak hunting perspective, three things about the story and its spin are notable: - In a story published a day before JD went off to try to make peace, Maggie and Swan spin JD Vance as the hero, even though descriptions of JD’s comments in no way back his purported heroism - There’s a strong, “The Jews did it,” theme to the story, which also tells of a private conversation that antisemite Tucker Carlson had with Trump (to be sure, I’m not attributing that theme to Maggie and Swan, but to their sources) - While the story purports to catalog who was absent (JD from the first meeting, Tulsi, Scott Bessent, and Chris Wright from the last one), its explanations for why people were excluded makes no sense and its silence about Stephen Miller is a big red flag So within days of (at least) the WSJ story relaying the warnings Trump received before he started the war and just days after it started, DOJ obtained a subpoena to go after WSJ, and possibly WaPo and Axios. In normal leak investigations, it would take months — usually years — before DOJ would focus on journalists. Even in the Nathanson investigation, in which her property was searched just five days after the arrest of her source, Aurelio Luis Perez-Lugones, the investigation started several months earlier. CNN’s story on this airs DOJ claims that investigators are not targeting the journalists, but that’s impossible to square with the decision to immediately subpoena the journalists. More recently, DOJ has circled back to investigate sources for the retrospective story that includes (but is not limited to) such warnings, along with one or multiple stories about the airman rescue. Dan Caine told Trump (and Whiskey Pete) so The thing is, there’s very little classified information in the earlier stories. As I noted in this story and Aaron Blake noted in this one, others — including the Iran expert that Laura Loomer got Trump to purge — were offering such warnings in public. What the administration is investigating is not so much classified information, but who leaked proof that Trump had been warned, who wanted to make sure they would not be blamed when things blew up, as they have. NYT reports that the leak investigation is being led by EDVA, where Nathanson is being targeted by the same prosecutor who led the Julian Assange prosecution. The venue suggests it is focused primarily on DOD or CIA sources, not Trump’s son-in-law, his developer buddy, or the people from Trump’s inner circle, people like Susie Wiles and JD Vance, who might have sourced the original Axios story. As such, it may be driven by Whiskey Pete’s paranoia as much as Trump’s. Whiskey Pete was (as described by NYT and as is evident every time he opens his yap) the cabinet member most enthusiastic for the war. He’s insecure because everyone around him is more competent than he is. And his prior recklessness, in the inconclusive attack on the Houthis, is partly responsible for the already-low inventory of munitions. It doesn’t help that Hegseth rival Dan Driscoll, as someone who would be aware of the briefings at DOD, but also as someone who due to their longterm friendship may have an interest in portraying JD Vance as a hero, is at the sweet spot between these stories. Still, the import of the leak investigation is a tell. As I noted here, Donald Trump keeps claiming he was not warned that things could go as wrong as they have. But he was warned, the fact that he was warned went public in time to stop the war, then within days after Trump started the war, at a time (we now know) when Iran had already done grave damage to a number of US bases around the region, something about which (WSJ reported in advance) Trump had specifically been warned, someone had decided to launch an accelerated investigation into the sources for a story confirming that Trump was warned of such damage to bases. Trump wants to know who preempted his attempt to claim deniability of how badly things could go wrong. Trump wants to avoid accountability for this catastrophic war. What if he finds a serpent in his garden? As noted, the WaPo and WSJ stories at least appear to be sourced close to DOD, possibly those leaks that drive Whiskey Pete bonkers. But Ravid has long been identified as a mouthpiece for Jared and Witkoff and at least some of Caputo’s sources in the immediate vicinity of Susie Wiles date to his long history covering Florida politics. And while I’m not convinced, most people assumed that that NYT story was planted by JD Vance. What if Trump’s narcissism and Hegseth’s paranoia exposed efforts by JD to separate himself from Trump’s failing war? Dick Cheney once argued that laws permitting the President to declassify whatever they want extend to Vice Presidents, and as a constitutional officer, JD is the one person Trump couldn’t fire. Just as interestingly — particularly given the noted (but, IMO, overstated) reticence of Stephen Miller of late — what if NYT’s silence about Stephen Miller’s participation in discussions in which other outlets report him to have taken part disclosed he was behind some of these efforts to air warnings how Iran could go wrong? Then there’s the motive. I suggested that the NYT story, at least, insinuated that a devious Bibi Netanyahu persuaded a feeble old President to chase his bullshit fantasies. The NYT story was particularly damaging because so many of Trump’s rubes are themselves antisemites and already believed that Trump sold them out by fighting with Israel. What if DOJ discovers that some of these leaks were motivated from antisemitism? A number of potential sources for these stories are, at a minimum, Russophiles, if not Russian useful idiots. What if DOJ discovered some of this leaking was motivated by an effort to please Russia? The subpoena to journalists, particularly one obtained long before any substantive investigation into sources could have happened, is a significant new attack on journalism. But it is also a testament to a paranoia that risks ripping apart Trump’s inner sanctum. Excellent title! Caine’s testimony will be important in next year’s impeachment hearings. None of the warnings mentioned t straits of Hormuz [Moderator’s note: You’ve published this comment twice in this thread and at least once in reply to a comment that doesn’t seem to fit your intent. (I’m not even certain you meant to leave this as a reply here.) I’m deleting your duplicate comment. /~Rayne] It might be more accurate to say “None of the warnings the public knows about mentioned t straits of Hormuz Relying should be relaying? TY I admire the double entendres in your well-chosen title. Thank you. truly Bibi-lical Guerdon of Pair o’ dice huh, now I learned a new word, I would bet that Susie Wiles will get booted. She is a woman, she is not family, she is not from central casting. It doesn’t matter if she is the one who spoke or not. You mean Susie Trump, the person Jared agreed was best for the job? Susie, the person with connections hither and yon? Susie, the person who was personally invited by Trump to live in the WH? Susie, who convinced Trump to change his opinion about fruit flavored vapes for children, so her daughter could profit off of it? That Susie? You are right. I had forgotten Kash. I was looking for a woman or some non Caucasian person to fire over this. She was more likely to be involved, but Kash is less white. I missed the Susie Wiles flavored vape connection. Now it makes sense. Yes, I think many people missed that. Why people can’t see her for who she is is beyond me! But it seems her persona has successfully given cover to the person she is. To Trump, Susie Wiles isn’t really a “woman.” She has gone to great lengths to distinguish herself from Trump’s harem–think Kristi, Pam, Tulsi, Lara–by adopting a look one might call grandmotherly, as opposed to try-hard hottie. And while she has eschewed the public-facing performance of breathy adoration, her behind-most-scenes dedication to anticipating Trump’s emotional needs has made her indispensable, in every sense of that word. Susie will be among the last to go. Trump needs her. And on some level, he seems to know it. Brothers and Sisters, Able and Cain, SOH is closed, Trump is to blame. Oh, what tangled webs we weave… and with everyone in this clown show administration weaving as hard as they can, the webs get very tangled indeed. Thank goodness we have EW to unravel them. I also find it amusing that Trump’s Team of Morons are as sucker-punched as the rest of us by his totally arbitrary decisions and refusal to take advice from anyone but his junk food-filled gut. I’ve been rooting for Caine’s crew to mutiny. It’s all about the missing strawberries for DJT’s breakfast! And no one has any steel balls or bearings! “Bounty: the quicker pucker-hipper” Caine(t) say know to the lame duck! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEMWIrM4aII Fawlty Towers Girl who cain’t say no I know this is not a popularly considered viewpoint, but I think Trump’s Warcrimes on Iran will ultimately be stopped or greatly curtailed by the soldiers and sailors, and possibly the airpeople who are forced to fight it. They are being morally abused, and may not be able to stand it forever. Their situation, and the abuse the get from the Evangelicons in the upper ranks isn’t being reported. And where Trump and Hegseth think they will get more Americans to join their crusade when the original batch is worn out, I don’t know. I disagree. The military is steeped in the tradition of civilian leadership and has never been tested on that constitutional question. Right now there are members of the military who have committed war crimes with their participation in the killing of drug boat crews. I wouldn’t count on anyone in the military to refuse an unlawful order, especially when their leadership won’t resign in protest. Gallantry in the senior officer class has long since been replaced with careerism. Don’t count on a coup either. Does Trump leave a yellow stain wherever he goes (pee-yew) ? I don’t know, but he left a filthy shit-stain on this country and the world. And he’s not done yet… I agree with George Carlin: “This is the best we can do folks…..” This god damned pedophilic rapist clown moron was elected twice by US citizens. I’m so naive, I believed Dubya (baby bush the lesser) was the dumbest person to occupy the oval office in my life time. bloopie2, I suspect that you, Old Tulsa Dude, and I are the only ones here who remember The Caine Mutiny. I saw it as a child because my dad insisted; “old yellow stain” was among his favorite epithets and rather than explain it to me (I was that young), he found the movie on TV and allowed me to watch it in the daytime. Dan Caine’s name has me wondering when some talking head will refer to it, especially with that phrase or a variant (old orange stain?) but so far, we Cainiacs must wait. I know *of* it – it was on my parents’ shelves. So I get that reference. I saw it almost fifty years ago, well before my voice changed. Don’t remember any of the actors other than Bogart, but I remember him in the courtroom, going on about the strawberries, and those steel balls he kept in his palm. I need to revisit it. It’s a great movie, and this nations greatest Humphrey is in it. Pertinent to Dr. Wheeler’s excellent piece, these investigations into news agencies for doing something radical like reporting news, highlighting that he was appraised about ALL of the risks prior to starting this, shows he knows the walls are closing in, and is panicking about these leaks. The all night tweeting binges are a clarion alarm of his mental health, but I’m hoping it’s his own moment of obsessing about ‘the missing strawberries’ that causes his own people finally see him as he is, and remove him. Sincerely yours, Pollyanna First of all, thanks for the chart. It helps a lot, to make things clearer. Second, I have been reading that Israel is taking one hell of a pounding from Iranian drones and missiles, targeted at their military supply chain. But this news, if true, doesn’t seem to make much of an impression on the MSM. I wonder if Netanyahoo will demand that the US fix it all and resupply, under penalty of antisemitism. For the first time in 74 years, I am terrified of the consequences of the combination of ignorance and corruption. Combined with all the aggression of the ‘the US just needs to kill more people to rule the world’, extant since the Viet Nam war, and pervasive in the right-wing bubble. Maybe these details in Susie Wiles’ background would be useful. She once worked on Tillie Fowler’s congressional campaign. Being from a big navy town, Fowler was a strong advocate for defense spending and was on the House Armed Services Committee. Susie is from the same naval community. So, it’s reasonable to imagine that she also has military connections. Generally speaking, Tillie Fowler was considered a moderate. But during her tenure as president of the city council, there was a budget meeting in which she did something that is still remembered today. She had 3 Black council members arrested. They were protesting the council’s treatment of Black neighborhoods. Since the start of his second term I’ve been expecting Trump to go after individual journalists for leaking and receiving and distributing classified info. Typing this out now, I recall posting about it here last year. https://emptywheel.net/2025/09/01/trumps-attempt-to-repackage-his-capitulation-in-ukraine/#comment-1109751 I still expect to see a journalist, most likely female, jailed and held until a source is revealed. Or perhaps they’ll hold two reporters from the same story and play them against each other to see who first rats out not only their sources but their co-byline. It’s precisely the kind of storyline stunt Impresario-in-Chief Trump likes to stage. I find it interesting that Trump and his cultists all are using the storyline about not allowing a country run by radical Islamists to have a nuclear weapon to be the justification for another protracted war in S. Asia. As EW readers know, there is already a country run by radical Islamists that HAS nuclear weapons. That country is Pakistan. Ironically, Trump’s two Jewish Real Estate Developers masquerading as statesmen are using Pakistan as the intermediary in their real estate development plans, I mean, peace talks with Iran. That seems destined to work out really well, based on Jared’s slimy trail of accomplishments. You really couldn’t write a more absurd story line than the one Trump creates every day with his idiotic actions. Whether the weather? Nature takes its course, of course? In Act 3, Scene 2, Lear shouts: “Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks! Rage! Blow!” Trump’s mind has unraveled, a betrayal by Caine. He will not be impeached — only found not guilty by reason of insanity. Of course, Trump was warned of the dangers. More than likely he received the same warnings when he okayed the attack on the nuclear facilities. Maybe he fell asleep during that part of the presentation. The likely “serpents in the garden” are all those who warned Trump of the dangers. Cheerleaders Hegseth, Rubio, and Lindsey Graham are more than likely not the serpents. “Success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan.” We should question not only the wisdom of the excursion but also the decision to go on the excursion without adequate preparation for the economic consequences or depletion of munitions. I am still stunned at the failure of the State Department not only to warn Americans against traveling in that region but also to assist them in getting out once Trump put them in harm’s way. Trump’s weakness in real estate was his failure to do due diligence and to take preventive measures before the deal. He relied first on his father and then on lawyers to clean up his mess. He hasn’t changed. I think there’s more going on here in the efforts to ‘protect the president’s reputation,’ than has been widely understood, which is that one of things we value most in someone involved in national security and international politics (the president) is the ability to keep your nerve and stay steady and serene when dealing with a difficult situation. Biden, Obama, Clinton and the first George Bush were really good at that. When things got difficult they kept their shit together and found either diplomatic or good rather than bad military solutions. The war with Iran is an obvious matter of Trump not keeping his nerve. It’s TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) written with bluster and bombers. Netanyahu played Trump’s fears like Les Paul played a guitar, and… here we are, seeing the results of someone high up in politics who couldn’t keep his nerve. All the world’s leader, most of whom can keep their nerve, now understand exactly how weak Trump is. And as much as anything else that’s what the White House is eager to cover up… Except they can’t, and Trump’s own decisions/behavior have made it obvious. The WH can’t even control its own staff: “Natalie Harp is helping Donald Trump make dozens of late-night, conspiracy-laden posts.” 5/13/26 https://newrepublic.com/post/210363/donald-trump-team-pissed-aide-nighttime-social-media They need to take away his phone at 10pm and give him a sleeping med that will keep him out for at least 8 hours. Or at least take away the phone and turn off the lights at the breaker. Older adults are targeted by scammers who prey on their emotions. And scammers know that the older adults are most vulnerable when they are fatigued or stressed. I don’t think Trump is a victim, but I’d not be surprised if people with their own agendas have too much access to Trump. Ronald Reagan had Nancy as guardian. Joe Biden had Jill as his. Does Melania care? Does Ivanka? Is Susie Wiles able to act as his guardian? In addition to the malignant narcissism and the dementia, Trump also presents a perfect example of the effects of sleep deprivation. If Trump and his coterie had any concern about his health, the first thing they would have done is tackle his disturbed sleep pattern. Up all night posting, and sleeping all morning in little bits here and there. The sleep pattern may have long preceded his current cognitive challenges and other health concerns and likely contributed to them. It might help some to address his insufficiency of deep sleep but it’s not a solution. Rayne, I think that’s a problem that does need to be addressed, one way or another. Maybe not scheduling stuff between 1 and 5 p, would help – that way he can nap. (I know this from my own messed-up sleep.) Reply to P J Evans on May 14, 2026 at 5:24 pm — I think they’ve been avoiding afternoon/early evenings for presidential stuff, but then they end up with Oval Office events in the morning during which he conks out at 9:30 am, or 11:00 am like he did again Monday this week. Wiles doesn’t discuss accommodating Trump with scheduling his duties but instead addresses staff being scheduled 7/24, including between her and Scavino. Marcy and I may disagree about his ranting episodes on Truth Social; they could be narcissistic meltdowns, but I suspect they may also be bad episodes of sundowning. I would bet a chunk of cash he’s also doing other acting out that we’re not hearing about, like the food throwing episodes Cassidy Hutchison related a handful of years ago. And adding a bit more of a twist to things, the man’s likely congestive heart failure could be getting worse and compounding his sleep problems and cognitive issues. Worsening of his CHF may explain why he appeared with BOTH hands extremely swollen and with possible signs of infusion therapy as Aaron Rupar noted: https://x.com/atrupar/status/2052118121389953153 on May 6. Frankly, CHF can cause serious cognitive deficits on its own. We should be far more worried about the odd reports of health care visits like a trip on the weekend to a local dentist in Florida — completely unexplained when the White House has a dentist. Chances are good it wasn’t a trip to the dentist but some other health-related visit. Worsening CHF may also explain why Trump has had repeated cognitive testing. Although I think comedian Jon Stewart may have been on to something when he wisecracked that Trump was outrunning the darkness. Trump may also not be sleeping well because he’s afraid death may catch him at his most vulnerable. Alex Isenstadt’s book ‘Revenge’ tells a story about Melania finding Natalie Harp in Trump’s personal quarters late one evening, probably helping Mango Mussolini shitpost some dumbass AI or loathsomely stupid content on his failed Truth Social slop site. So, apparently even Melania doesn’t like this new bleach blonde version of Hope Hicks. Where do they find these idiotic women anyway?? Plastic surgery offices? Trump has always been a coward. Putin has played him like the proverbial fiddle for years. He has no nerve; what he has is bluster, which passes for nerve and, worse, strength with those still in the grip of MAGA magical thinking. And now he’s in China, facing off against someone whose situation he envies and whose approval he craves. God save Taiwan. If Miller was involved with the warnings, as a CYA, then that would be quite a squeeze job. As Miller was 1) likely instrumental in the Iran strikes happening in the first place and 2) understood that the Rubicon was already crossed, past the point of no return, there there would definitely be Iran strikes, just as soon as the opportunity opened. 1/5/26: Miller Iron Laws of the World to Jake Tapper 1/28/26: Graham praise Miller to Hannity, really confident, suggesting Miller is instrumental to achieve Graham’s main pet issue (Iran regime change) and that it has already been green lit 2/16/26 ish: Graham visits Israel, UAE, KSA, to coordinate Iran strikes, says he has been working on this project for about 2 years, ie during the 2024 election cycle Coincidentally, the 2024 election cycle is also when when Graham started supporting Miller and when Miller began to be obsessed with Venezuela, which was a likely prereq for Iran, the primary issue Graham cares about. https://emptywheel.net/2026/01/29/lindsey-graham-defends-wormtongue/ zscore, the Stephen Miller you describe has played both ends against the middle, quietly shaping Trump’s foreign policy in ways that might seem contradictory unless seen through the lens of Essential Miller: he is always serving his own long game. What strikes me most about his role in the Iran debacle is how little it has surfaced in the reporting. To me that means one thing: Miller is a source for some, if not all of these stories. Also, well put descriptions of Barak Ravid’s role. I doubt a snake in Trump’s garden will be the story. What do the prediction markets say? False flags and planted narratives happen, while Big Oil makes big bucks the longer the Strait is closed. Stephen Miller has to have someone tie his shoes for him. The only way he can leak is in the bathroom. He’d need friends in the media. Can you imagine him having friends? There are journalists with access to Miller as well as his spouse. (I suspect the DailyMail in particular has journalists with beats dedicated to either Miller or his wife.) Relatedly: