Jérome Fourquet, on student protests in France: "We are facing the end of a reign"

Jérome Fourquet, on student protests in France: "We are facing the end of a reign" The French sociologist believes there is a power vacuum unable to respond to a generalized discontent in the country and a twilight climate aggravated by public debt Jérome Fourquet (Le Mans, 53 years old) is not usually wrong. And if he is, he does so in a way that his theses are always useful for understanding what is happening on the streets. The microscopy guru—he is the Director of Opinion at the IFOP institute—political scientist and essayist, author of Homo occidentalis, his latest book, has deciphered the growing discontent in French society better than anyone else. The climate of decomposition, the fractures, the inequalities that have fueled the extremes. Now, in the midst of the protest wave, he believes the country is heading to a dead end. An end of a reign, as he himself defines via video conference, which does not even guarantee a solution after the next presidential elections. Question. What analysis does he make of this protest? Answer. It started in the suburbs due to problems with the deterioration of facilities, staff... But it gained intensity because the Government did not understand the scope of the matter. They were absent. There is a political dimension. And it all fits into a twilight climate, the end of Macron's second term. Q. He feels there is no one at the helm. A. His Prime Minister [Sébastien Lecornu] took a long time to speak. His Minister of Education [Édouard Geffray] does not have a very clear position. And all this contributes to reinforcing the feeling that no one is piloting the plane. The initial response was only police, also because there is no money for anything else. But the system is already breathless on the economic and social level. Q. Is Macron responsible? A. Macron will be responsible in the eyes of the young people. The students protesting in the streets today have not met another president. There is an expression that resonates on social networks that says: "In Macron's France". And it has the air of the old regime, the end of Louis XIV. A regime that did not end and invited rebellion. Q. Why hasn't Macron practically said anything? A. Because he has nothing much to say. In the US, they talk about the "broken mule" when a president is at the end of his term and cannot run again: we are right there. With the aggravating factor that he does not have his own parliamentary majority. Lecornu does what he can without money and [Gabriel] Attal [leader of Renaissance] and [Édouard] Philippe [leader of Horizons], if they can give him a blow, they will do so to distance themselves from him in the electoral race. Q. But is his legacy at stake? A. People have moved past Macronism, especially among young people. The 16-year-olds had seven years when he was elected. They have not seen anything else. And their parents are disappointed, going through difficulties of all kinds. Their legacy is at stake, but they are more worried about the international scene than about advancing things in their country. Q. How much does the economic and budgetary crisis weigh? A. A lot. It is not possible to solve this problem with money because there is none. Nor the anger of drivers over the price of fuel. We are in an advanced stage of decomposition. We have also seen this this summer with the heatwave without air conditioning in the hospitals... In all sectors of the public service there are the same problems: lack of material, dilapidated buildings, lack of staff... Remember the spectacular robbery of the Louvre, followed by other robberies in regional museums. Q. Is there no room? A. Today we spend more money paying the debt than on the education budget. We are trapped by our budget. And before there was the student strike, there was already the problem of gasoline and the Ministry of Economy did not want to provide aid because it could not. The budgetary debate next week will be very complicated. The president and the prime minister have lost all their support. We are facing the end of a reign. Q. The problem of youth is broader. A. We have two phenomena. The first, less marked in France, is demographic decline. Aging has effects on pensions and education. 1985 was an important date for education. Minister Jean-Pierre Chevènement launched the slogan of "80% to the exam". Before it was only 30%. Today we are at the figure the minister said. Has the level been lowered to allow it? In any case, in 40 years this policy has taken root in the minds of young people. Now everyone can choose their orientation, something that only an elite of 30% could do. The majority studies at university, and that does not equalize opportunities, but displaces competition. It happens higher up, or earlier, in the choice of good centers. There is a lot of stress among young people about orientation. And that has to do with Parcoursup [French public platform that manages access to higher education]: the great machine that guides young people in their careers. Q. How should the possible convergence between the yellow vests and the students be interpreted? A. It is a youth movement that is inscribed in a global phenomenon of budgetary difficulty and growth in France. Also of the pauperization of the Administration, the price of gasoline... So the movement tries to join a much more global protest. Q. What is the weight of this youth in the vote? A. Today, young people between 18 and 24 years old represent 10% of those registered in the electoral census. And pensioners are 35%. Furthermore, young people are fewer and vote less. The challenge of [Jean-Luc] Mélenchon [leader of La France Insoumise (LFI)] is to mobilize them electorally. Q. Is there a link between the movement in Spain and in other parts of Europe with this? A rupture of the contract between generations, short-term politics... A. We have an economic situation that is becoming more tense and very unfavorable mechanisms for young people. In 1968 only 10% of the French accessed higher education, today it is almost all. But today 50% of these students have to work at the same time. The poverty rate among young people is much higher than among the elderly, something unprecedented until now. In France the social model speaks of young people who enter the labor market later and have worse conditions. And all this leads to housing access, which has exploded in Spain, but also in France. Today the average age of a buyer of a new vehicle in France is 55 years old. Advertising is aimed at them. The average age of viewers of France 2 or France 3 is 63 years old... We have a whole economic and media system that speaks to these people and has separated itself from the reality of young people. Q. Does this environment benefit the extremes? A. To La France Insoumise for sure. They are the only ones who can enter the protests, applaud them, hug them... Mélenchon has 40% of voting intention among those under 35 years old. The old left that now represents Glucksmann is not there. There is an enormous generational distance. Q. And the National Rally (RN, of Marine Le Pen)? A. They collect the vote on the issue of violence. They are the party of law and order. Today the Government cannot benefit from a reflection against that violence. But it is curious because in the plains, when we see students protesting and those who are against them, some are from LFI and others from RN. As if the center bloc has disappeared from the landscape of young people, and from the political landscape in general. Q. Is this the end of Macronism, of that idea of center-right? A. Yes. Neither Attal nor Philippe are in great shape in the polls. And there are two forces rising on the extremes. Q. It gives the impression that this "pre-revolutionary climate," as defined by Mélenchon, will not calm down no matter who wins. A. There is a great general discontent. People used to vote on the other side of the pendulum, left or right, when they were tired of one option. But now it is more difficult. The heirs of Macron want to separate themselves from him and there are new alternatives. And it is not obvious that whoever is elected president will have a majority in the National Assembly. Whoever it is, they will face the wall of debt. Q. What would happen in a second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen? A. We do not make predictions. But unless there is a monumental accident, Le Pen will get the second round. The matter [Jordan] Bardella [president of the National Rally and political heir of Marine Le Pen, entangled in a controversy for writing anti-Semitic messages in his youth] has not affected them at all. Who will be facing whom? The entire presidential campaign will be summarized in that. I believe Philippe has won the game against Attal, but we do not know if that will be enough to win against Mélenchon and be in the second round. But if it is Mélenchon, Le Pen will win by a large margin. Q. Can the second round still be a barrier to the far-right? A. If you look at the municipal elections, in 71 municipalities the RN was in charge and then won only in three. And it was not France that was at stake. So I lean to think that, even if Le Pen is very strong in the first round, the second will be something else.