Ecommerce air cargo growth stalls as regulation bites and capacity retreats

Asia-Europe freighter capacity cut as ecommerce slump bites Correction: Asia-Europe freighter capacity The Loadstar yesterday incorrectly reported that Asia Pacific-Europe freighter capacity had increased ... ODFL: TIME TO BE A BIT MORE CAUTIOUS CHRW: PRICE TARGET CUT BUT 'BUY' NOWAMZN: NEW AI BOND OFFERING ZIM: HAPAG DEAL UPDATEWTC: DOWN FWRD: BOTTOM FISHING ODFL: TIME TO BE A BIT MORE CAUTIOUS CHRW: PRICE TARGET CUT BUT 'BUY' NOWAMZN: NEW AI BOND OFFERING ZIM: HAPAG DEAL UPDATEWTC: DOWN FWRD: BOTTOM FISHING Global ecommerce air cargo growth has flattened this year following a surge in capacity and regulatory intervention, delegates at the EU CBEC ecommerce forum in Liege heard today. Speaking at the forum, CEO of Rotate, Ryan Keyrouse, said ecommerce volumes had grown 23% since 2024 but were now flat. “When we were here two years ago, ecommerce was showing a 41% growth year over year, if you fast forward, we are 23% absolute growth, but we are at 0% year over year growth. “So the total ecommerce growth has indeed flattened in this year, but we’re still higher. So it depends on how you want to look at it. Ecommerce is slowing down, but it’s still one of the largest commodities with quite robust numbers,” he said. Mr Keyrouse noted that political intervention has emerged as the biggest threat – something industry respondents had already identified as the leading risk two years ago in a Rotate survey. “Politically marketed policies. That definitely happened,” he said, pointing to the recent de minimis measures introduced in Europe and the US. Rotate highlighted the impact of the EU’s regulatory changes that became apparent in July, shorty after their introduction. That month witnessed 24% decline in ecommerce volumes, alongside a 28% fall in freighter capacity to Europe. Mr Keyrouse illustrated that this is the equivalent of around 5,000 freighter flights a year having disappeared from the market. He revelaed that these capacity reductions have been unevenly distributed, creating winners and losers among European gateways. EU ecommerce gateways such as Liège, Amsterdam and Budapest all suffered significant declines, with Budapest’s capacity falling by almost 60% between June and August. “We didn’t really see that capacity out of China be redistributed elsewhere,” Mr Keyrouse commented. Instead, the reduction has largely come through lower utilisation and the parking of older, converted freighters, particularly less fuel-efficient aircraft. Rotate’s latest sentiment survey, based on more than 100 industry responses, found most respondents did not expect European ecommerce volumes to rebound immediately after the summer. “The answer is not for another six months,” Mr Keyrouse said. Others believe the market will settle into a permanent but stable decline, while only a minority expect an immediate recovery. Any displaced ecommerce demand is nevertheless expected to find new markets, with respondents identifying Latin America and the Middle East and Africa as the most likely areas for future growth, although Southeast Asia and non-EU European markets also featured. However, ecommerce is not the only major growth engine for air cargo. Technology and AI-related hardware have expanded rapidly, with cloud computing, computers and semiconductors driving demand. Outside China, technology-related goods now account for 68% of Asia-Pacific exports, according to Rotate, reflecting the acceleration of the “China plus one” manufacturing strategy. Overall, Rotate forecasts total air cargo demand will grow 3% over the next 12 months, broadly in line with projected capacity growth of 3.3%. For uninterrupted access, sign in or sign up to The Daily News, Premium or The Loadstar Enterprise Plan. Comment on this article