Drone attacks bring the war to the shores of NATO: The Black Sea risks becoming a "dead zone" after six strikes in 10 days, with more victims than the US in the conflict with Iran.

Drone Attacks Bring the War to the Shores of NATO: The Black Sea Risks Becoming a "Dead Zone" After Six Strikes in 10 Days, With More Victims Than the US in the Conflict with Iran Recent drone attacks in the waters of Romania and Bulgaria open up the possibility of invoking Article 4 of the NATO Treaty and bring major risks to commercial transport. Six commercial ships were attacked in just 10 days in the Black Sea, in the territorial waters and airspace of Romania and Bulgaria. The attacks, which risk analysts and officials claim were carried out by Russian drones, mark an escalation of the maritime conflict approaching NATO borders, according to a The Guardian analysis. The tally of civilian mariners lost as a result of this wave of attacks exceeds the total number of American military personnel killed during the entire conflict with Iran, the source cited. The strikes directly targeted essential exports, including commercial transport of grain and oil, and led maritime insurers to extend areas of high risk to the entire Black Sea basin. Chronology of Attacks The first strike was recorded in the early hours of October 6th, when the Turkish ship "Alfa Watan," sailing to the port of Sulina, was attacked in the exclusive economic zone of Bulgaria. The crew of the Bulgarian ferry "Dioscuria" detected an explosion 70 miles from the city of Byala, but on the spot they discovered only a overturned life raft, and the 10 crew members were reported missing. Six days later, another ship, "HS Dignity," was hit by drones in the waters off the Bulgarian coast, in which thirteen crew members lost their lives. By Thursday, the attacks also affected airspace and the territorial waters of Romania. Two tanker ships for chemical products, Wine Trader and Yara J, were attacked and remained on fire. Seven other mariners were reported missing. The series of strikes also included the vessels "Able," a cargo ship under the flag of Palau carrying grain, and "Chelsea-3," a general cargo ship under the flag of Malta, both attacked in the exclusive economic zone of Bulgaria. The "double tap" tactic and economic blockade While global attention was focused on the risks faced by mariners traversing the Strait of the Bosporus, the Black Sea has proven to be a more dangerous route, The Guardian writes in its analysis. Tomas Alexa, senior analyst at Ambrey, warned the cited source that threats to maritime transport of goods will not stop. He indicated a sharp increase in the pace of attacks starting in July, with Russian forces being considered responsible for 80% of them. Recent loss of life has been aggravated by the use of "double tap" attacks, the analyst suggested. This tactic involves aerial and surface drones, which often carry up to half a ton of explosive cargo. "Although attacks on commercial ships in the Black Sea are not new, we are witnessing an escalation in both the number of attacks and the geographical area covered," Alexa stated. This evolution has led to a sharp decrease in the number of ships docking in Ukraine. Insurance rates have increased, and mariners and operators are reluctant to continue their activities in the Black Sea basin. Changes in weapons and international warnings Experts assert that the extension of the conflict to NATO coasts is determined by Russia's response to the attacks on its oil fleet. As ships sought routes further from the coast, the threat has shifted from naval mines to drones with increasingly larger ranges. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated that commercial ships and innocent crews are the targets of the attacks. In a statement made to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Colonel Joby Rimmer, a high-ranking British military advisor, affirmed: "Attacks that do not distinguish between military objectives and civilian ships or that are expected to cause excessive collateral damage to civilians and civilian ships in relation to the anticipated military advantage may still violate international humanitarian law and the UN Law of the Sea." "Every attack increases the risk faced by crews of any nationality, increases insurance costs, and restricts the flow of food to those who depend on it. The United Kingdom is deeply concerned about the far-reaching consequences of successive crises in the global maritime domain. Stable and safe maritime routes represent a global common good to which we all benefit," he added. In parallel, operators warn about the impact on general trade in the Black Sea. The owner of a shipping agency, Todor Georgiev, warns that the Black Sea risks becoming a "dead zone." In a recent interview given to Bulgarian television, Georgiev said that "every time the Russians are caught hitting a ship with one of their drones, they claim the ship was carrying weapons. 'We do not transport weapons to Ukraine through the Black Sea,'" he added. The Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, described the attacks in the vicinity of his territorial waters as "absolutely unacceptable." Radev further stated that although there is no clear evidence for direct attribution of responsibility, the logic suggests that the result is in favor of the Russian Federation, as there is no logic for Ukraine to attack its own transports. Bulgarian officials have requested the support of the EU and NATO to strengthen security, cooperating with Turkey and Romania. And Damien Chevallier, director of the UN International Maritime Organization, warned that maritime transport has become a deliberate instrument of geopolitical influence. He stated that it transforms the danger of seafarers into a dangerous one due to the crises in the Black Sea, the Red Sea, and the Strait of the Bosporus. The Article 4 Scenario The proximity of attacks to the borders of NATO member states poses ever-greater security challenges. The situation generates discussions about the possibility that the affected countries may invoke Article 4 of the NATO Treaty to organize official crisis consultations, writes the British publication. The measure has been triggered twice in this conflict: immediately after the invasion in 2022 and by Poland in 2025, after Russian drones violated the airspace of Warsaw. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently met with Radev and the President of Romania to discuss regional security, stating that the Alliance will adapt its deterrence and defense position. Warning of a Food Crisis During a security conference held in Warsaw last week, the Romanian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Oana Țoiu, spoke about the effects of the recent strikes. "We see the Black Sea as a global food artery," she said. "Currently, unfortunately, it is the deadliest sea in terms of the number of victims among mariners in recent months. This means we must increase our investments in deterrence and defense measures," Țoiu added. What Nicușor Dan Said President Nicușor Dan stated on Friday evening, at the end of the European Council meeting in Brussels, that France has offered to help Romania with the necessary equipment to strengthen security in the Black Sea. "There was a discussion about the recent events in the Black Sea. How we asked for help almost a year ago until the equipment we ordered from SAFE arrived. Colleagues had discussions with the French technical team who offered to help us with the necessary equipment and better understand the needs," stated Nicușor Dan. The President also said that he discussed regional security with many allied leaders, including the Bulgarian president, the NATO Secretary General, the President of France, and the Prime Minister of Greece. He further specified that France responded to Romania's request within 24 hours and expressed confidence that other allies would also respond to the request. "We must draw a parallel to what happened a few months ago on the Danube and now in the Black Sea. Then we went to our partners. We are in the same situation. A threat that did not exist last year. The same request to which France already responded in 24 hours. I am convinced that other allies will respond. All the time there are new challenges. Fortunately, Romania has allies. A good, correct relationship with allies. And of course, the SAFE program," affirmed Nicușor Dan.