Oh Dear, Condo Prices Dropped by 15% to 34% in 34 Bigger Markets. 6 Plunged Back to Where They’d Been 20 Years Ago

In another 35 bigger cities, condo prices dropped by 8-14%. How the mind-blowing Condo Bubbles deflate in 34 charts. Condos are subject to different dynamics than single-family homes – dynamics that fueled eye-watering bubbles in specific markets through mid-2022 where prices exploded in two years by 50%, 60%, or even 70% in some cities, on top of already high and soaring prices from the prior years. In the 10 years to their respective peaks, prices had soared by 180% to 350% in these markets. And those bubbles have started to deflate, in some markets brutally. Prices of mid-tier condos through August have dropped by 15% to 34% from their respective peaks in 34 bigger markets, depicted in the 34 charts below. The vast majority of the peaks occurred in mid-2022. A few occurred in 2023 and 2024. These peaks topped off one of the most impressive price explosions in US condo history, and those bubbles broke under their own weight. In 9 of these 34 markets – from Oakland via Austin to Jacksonville – prices of mid-tier condos dropped by 21% to 34%, including 3 markets with 30%-plus drops. Further price deterioration in Glendale, AZ, brought the price decline from mid-2022 through August to 15%, and it was added to the list. In July, Houston, TX, and Tempe, AZ, has been added to the list. No market came off the list in August. Below 2006 levels: In 6 of these 34 markets, condo prices have plunged below their highs during Housing Bubble 1 in 2006. Prices in those markets are now back where they’d been 20 years ago. - Cape Coral, FL; - Oakland, CA; - Fort Myers, FL; - Sarasota County, FL; - Orlando, FL; - Contra Costa County (San Francisco Bay Area), CA. Most of the markets here are “cities.” But several are counties whose numerous cities – though often household names – are too small to be included individually. The list includes one metropolitan statistical area for the same reasons. New York County is also included, which is Manhattan where condos are a huge part of the market. In some densely populated big cities, condos and co-ops make up a big part or the majority of home sales. In most other markets, condos are a relatively small portion of home sales. These 34 condo markets are depicted in 34 charts below. | Condo Market | Since peak | Year of peak | | 1 | Cape Coral, FL | -34% | 2022 | | 2 | Oakland, CA | -32% | 2022 | | 3 | St. Petersburg, FL | -30% | 2022 | | 4 | Austin, TX | -28% | 2022 | | 5 | Fort Myers, FL | -27% | 2023 | | 6 | Sarasota County, FL | -24% | 2022 | | 7 | Garland, TX | -22% | 2022 | | 8 | Tampa, FL | -22% | 2022 | | 9 | Jacksonville, FL | -21% | 2022 | | 10 | Arlington, TX | -19% | 2024 | | 11 | Denver, CO | -19% | 2022 | | 12 | Aurora, CO | -19% | 2022 | | 13 | Detroit, MI | -19% | 2021 | | 14 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, metro, FL | -19% | 2023 | | 15 | Collier County (Naples), FL | -18% | 2022 | | 16 | Orlando, FL | -18% | 2024 | | 17 | Seattle, WA | -18% | 2022 | | 18 | Hayward, CA | -17% | 2022 | | 19 | Raleigh, NC | -17% | 2022 | | 20 | Plano, TX | -17% | 2022 | | 21 | Manhattan, NY (New York County) | -17% | 2022 | | 22 | Contra Costa County, CA | -17% | 2022 | | 23 | Port Saint Lucie, FL | -17% | 2024 | | 24 | Mesa, AZ | -17% | 2022 | | 25 | Fremont, CA | -16% | 2022 | | 26 | San Mateo County (northern Silicon Valley), CA | -16% | 2022 | | 27 | Portland, OR | -16% | 2022 | | 28 | Chandler, AZ | -15% | 2022 | | 29 | Phoenix, AZ | -15% | 2022 | | 30 | Tempe, AZ | -15% | 2022 | | 31 | Reno, NV | -15% | 2022 | | 32 | Houston, TX | -15% | 2024 | | 33 | Boise, ID | -15% | 2022 | | 34 | Glendale, AZ | -15% | 2022 | Cities that didn’t make the 15% cutoff. The cities of Dallas, TX, Irving, TX, Sacramento, CA, Huntsville, AL, and San Antonio, TX, are only a few bad months away from getting on the list. They are part of the 35 bigger cities where condo prices have dropped by 8% to 14%. These 35 cities don’t have their own charts here – just the list below. San Francisco, the epicenter of the AI investment boom, where home prices are now re-exploding, came off this list in August, but condo prices were still down by 7% from their peak in 2022. In many smaller markets, condo prices have dropped as much or more, but they are not included here because the markets are too small. | Condo Market | Since peak | Year of peak | | 1 | Dallas, TX | -14% | 2023 | | 2 | Irving, TX | -14% | 2023 | | 3 | San Antonio, TX | -14% | 2024 | | 4 | Huntsville, AL | -14% | 2022 | | 5 | Sacramento, CA | -14% | 2022 | | 6 | Queens, NY | -14% | 2022 | | 7 | Colorado Springs, CO | -14% | 2022 | | 8 | Scottsdale, AZ | -13% | 2022 | | 9 | Stockton, CA | -13% | 2022 | | 10 | Modesto, CA | -13% | 2022 | | 11 | Las Vegas, NV | -13% | 2022 | | 12 | Corpus Christi, TX | -13% | 2023 | | 13 | Henderson, NV | -12% | 2022 | | 14 | Fort Lauderdale, FL | -12% | 2022 | | 15 | Spokane, WA | -11% | 2022 | | 16 | Elk Grove, CA | -11% | 2022 | | 17 | Atlanta, GA | -11% | 2023 | | 18 | Nashville, TN | -10% | 2022 | | 19 | Washington, DC | -10% | 2022 | | 20 | Minneapolis, MN | -9% | 2021 | | 21 | Salt Lake City, UT | -9% | 2022 | | 22 | Los Angeles, CA | -9% | 2022 | | 23 | Memphis, TN | -9% | 2024 | | 24 | San Diego, CA | -9% | 2023 | | 25 | Tucson, AZ | -9% | 2023 | | 26 | New Orleans | -9% | 2022 | | 27 | Fort Worth, TX | -9% | 2024 | | 28 | Wilmington, NC | -9% | 2022 | | 29 | Marietta GA | -9% | 2024 | | 30 | Long Beach, CA | -8% | 2023 | | 31 | San Jose, CA | -8% | 2022 | | 32 | St. Louis, MO | -8% | 2023 | | 33 | Lubbock, TX | -8% | 2022 | | 34 | Oklahoma City, OK | -8% | 2023 | | 35 | Miami, FL | -8% | 2023 | Methodology and data: These prices here are seasonally adjusted three-month averages of “mid-tier” condos and co-ops from the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is backward-looking index, based on millions of data points in Zillow’s “Database of All Homes,” including from public records (tax data), MLS, brokerages, local Realtor Associations, real-estate agents, and households across the US. It includes pricing data for off-market deals and for-sale-by-owner deals. Mind-blowing Condo Bubbles deflate in 34 charts. The tables for each market below show from left to right: price decline from the peak, change from prior month (MoM), change year-over-year (YoY), and remaining increase since January 2000. | Cape Coral, City, FL, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -34% | -0.3% | -9.2% | 127% | | Oakland, CA, City, Condo Home Prices | | From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -32% | 0.0% | -7.2% | 138% | | St. Petersburg, Fl, City, Condo Prices | | From Oct 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -30% | -0.1% | -7.6% | 176% | | Austin, TX, City, Condo Prices | | From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -28% | -0.1% | -5.3% | 102% | | Fort Myers, FL, City, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -27% | -0.4% | -9% | 117% | | Sarasota County, FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -24% | 0.1% | -5.0% | 129% | | Garland, TX, City, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -22% | -0.8% | -12.0% | 198% | | Tampa, FL, City, Condo Prices | | From Sep 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -22% | -0.3% | -7.5% | 243% | | Jacksonville, FL, City, Condo Prices | | From Nov 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -21% | -0.4% | -6.8% | 138% | | Arlington, TX, City, Condo Prices | | From Jun 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -19% | -0.8% | -5.7% | 219% | | Denver, CO, City, Condo Prices | | From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -19% | -0.2% | -5.2% | 126% | | Aurora, CO, City, Condo Prices | | From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -19% | -0.5% | -6.6% | 187% | | Detroit, MI, City, Condo Prices | | From Sep 2021 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -19% | 0.3% | -5.6% | 247% | | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL, MSA, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -19% | -0.6% | -7.4% | 120% | | Collier County (Naples), FL, Condo & Co-ops Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -18% | 0.1% | -3.9% | 152% | | Orlando, FL, City, Condo Prices | | From Jan 2024 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -18% | -0.5% | -7.1% | 144.2% | | Seattle, WA, City, Condo Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -18% | -0.5% | -4.5% | 126% | | Hayward, CA, City, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -17% | -0.3% | -7.0% | 171% | | Raleigh, NC, City, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -17% | -0.3% | -8.0% | 129.7% | | Plano, TX, City, Condo Prices | | From Aug 2023 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -17% | -0.5% | -7.9% | 119% | | Manhattan (New York County), NY, Condo & Co-Op Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -17% | 0.3% | 3.1% | 218% | | Contra Costa County (East Bay), CA, Condo & Co-Op Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -17% | -0.2% | -4.1% | 130% | | Port Saint Lucie, FL, City, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -17% | -0.4% | -6.2% | 224.2% | | Mesa, AZ, City, Condo Prices | | From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -17% | -0.3% | -5.2% | 193% | | Fremont, CA, City, Condo Prices | | From May 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -16% | -0.3% | -6.0% | 192.3% | | San Mateo County, CA, Condo & Co-op Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -16% | 0.3% | -2.4% | 193% | | Portland, OR, City, Condo Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -16% | -0.2% | -3.3% | 103% | | Chandler, AZ, City, Condo Prices | | From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -15% | -0.2% | -4.3% | 201.4% | | Phoenix, AZ, City, Condo Prices | | From Aug 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -15% | -0.2% | -3.6% | 226% | | Tempe, AZ, City, Condo Prices | | From Jul 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -15% | -0.4% | -5.3% | 154.7% | | Reno, NV, City, Condo Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -15% | 0.1% | -1.9% | 242% | | Houston, TX, City, Condo Prices | | From Aug 2023 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -15% | -0.2% | -6.0% | 64% | | Boise, ID, City, Condo Prices | | From Jun 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2001 | | -15% | 0.1% | -1% | 221% | | Glendale, AZ, City, Condo Prices | | From July 2022 peak | MoM | YoY | Since 2000 | | -15% | 0% | -5% | 234% | A reminder of the special issues condos face. Some people buy condos as a home because they want to live in an urban center or along the shore, or enjoy the big views, nice amenities, and worry-free living where staff takes care of the building maintenance, repairs, and yardwork; or because they like having staff by the front door, or don’t want to climb stairs; or because of a combination of these. Others buy condos as rental properties or as short-term vacation rentals. Or they buy them as vacation homes. Especially nonresident foreign investors buy condos to park some cash in the US. It’s these investors that make condos particularly speculative. Some of the special issues: - Over the long term, land appreciates, but most buildings depreciate and are eventually torn down. The land that big condo buildings sit on can be very valuable, but each condo owner only owns a tiny slice of it. The rest of their investment is in the building. A single-family house may sit on less valuable land, but the homeowner owns all of it. - Prices that exploded over the past few years ended up being way too high, once the mania settled down. - Hefty special assessments, or the fear of them, for long-neglected major repairs dog some older condo buildings. This is a particular issue in Florida, but elsewhere too. - Big increases in HOA fees at many properties, partly driven by spiking insurance costs in natural disaster zones, add substantially to the monthly costs of condos. - If a condo building is on Fannie Mae’s Blacklist, financing a unit in that building can be difficult, and sales may be limited to cash buyers who know that and exact their pound of flesh. - The Free Money has ended, and mortgage rates are roughly back to a normal range. Buyers of single-family homes face the same issue. - Foreign-based owners who’ve become frustrated with the US and became sellers add supply, while demand from foreign buyers has waned. - Investors in condos as rental properties are facing stiff competition from a wave of newly completed higher-end apartment buildings that developers are trying to find tenants for. And in case you missed it: Pending Home Sales Stuck Deep in Mud, Edge up from Down-Revised 2nd Lowest on Record, Supply Hits 10-Year+ High Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how: Wonder if we will ever see the other side of that second mountain? Never, ever by a property with an HOA. Why? So history did repeat itself…. Who could have possibly imagined something so predictable would happen again?