Iran Conflict Disrupts Central Asian Trade Routes

Iran Conflict Disrupts Central Asian Trade Routes Iran Conflict Disrupts Central Asian Trade Routes Executive Summary: - Central Asian states have maintained neutrality while calling for de-escalation of the conflict in and around Iran. The conflict is indirectly impacting Central Asia, causing regional instability and economic uncertainty. - The conflict has disrupted vital trade and transit routes linking Central Asia to global markets via Iran, causing shortages and logistical delays while testing Central Asia’s resilience to energy price increases. - Escalation in the Persian Gulf, including threats to the Strait of Hormuz, has increased the importance of routes such as the Middle Corridor, which bypasses both Russia and Iran. This shift may reshape regional logistics, requiring major infrastructure investment. On March 2, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry released an official statement about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East following U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran that began on February 28. Spokesperson Yerlan Zhettybayev said: We express regret over the strikes against civilian facilities of Arab states that are not participating in the war against Iran, and with which Kazakhstan consistently develops friendly relations and comprehensive cooperation … We call on all parties involved to exercise maximum restraint and responsibility in order to prevent further escalation of violence in the region (The Astana Times, March 2). Central Asian states have largely maintained neutrality in official statements on the conflict, going out of their way to avoid outwardly criticizing any party, including Iran and the Gulf states. Conflict in and around Iran poses indirect economic, security, and geopolitical risks to Central Asia, which as a whole is advocating for de-escalation (The Times of Central Asia, March 4). Central Asia has begun to feel the ripple effects of conflict in the Persian Gulf. Iran’s retaliation to ongoing U.S.–Israeli aerial attacks and the killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has included strikes on U.S. bases across the Persian Gulf, drone and missile strikes on Israel, and choking off commercial use of the Strait of Hormuz (Special Eurasia, March 8). Central Asia is a landlocked region that was historically dependent on Soviet-era transport networks passing through Russia to the north. The region has spent 30 years developing connectivity networks to the south and west, which have become more widely used since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine heightened the need for routes bypassing Russia. These routes offer Central Asian countries the shortest overland access to ports in Iran, the Persian Gulf, and the Indian Ocean (The Times of Central Asia, March 5). Conflict in the Middle East has disrupted trade routes and key transit corridors across Central Asia. Iran links rail networks of Central Asia to Türkiye, the Gulf states, and Europe. Iranian ports also serve as gateways to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf for Central Asia (The Times of Central Asia, March 2). In Turkmenistan, areas along the Iranian border have seen trade disruptions with Iran. These areas largely depend on Iran for food and household items. Shortages of these items in the market, due to delays or cancellations of Iranian shipments, have raised the prices of commodities that come from Iran to Turkmenistan. Ashgabat also faces uncertainty regarding oil, industrial goods, and construction materials from Iran. Similarly, Uzbekistan may face shortages of goods imported from Iran via Turkmenistan, particularly dairy products (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 4). The conflict in the Middle East has forced Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to cancel flights that transit through Iranian airspace. Air Astana, Kazakhstan’s largest airline, has suspended flights between Almaty and Medina, Dubai, and Doha due to the escalating conflict. Flights from Uzbekistan to Dubai, Medina, and Jeddah have also been delayed or cancelled outright (Aze.Media, March 2). Railway lines in Central Asia form a key part of a broader network of transit routes that move commodities from the region to global markets via Iran. For example, the Kazakhstan–Turkmenistan–Iran railway line moves goods from Central Asia to Iranian ports and onward to global markets. Rail routes from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan also run through Iran, providing overland links to maritime trade (The Times of Central Asia, March 5). Before the outbreak of the conflict, some observers saw transit through Iran as shorter and safer for Central Asian goods than the Russian route. Qasim Bekmumhammad, a political analyst on Central Asian affairs, said: Iran is a transportation route, a transit route for goods in accessing free waters for the countries of Central Asia. At the same time, it was considered one of the shortest and safest routes, which is of paramount importance for Central Asia in the context of the Afghan crisis, as well as the Russian route (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 4). The conflict in Iran exposes the constraints on landlocked Central Asia in international trade. The region depends on overland southern, northern, and western access routes to connect it to global markets (The Times of Central Asia, March 5). Conflict in the Middle East has blocked southern transit corridors for Central Asia, and brought the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR or Middle Corridor), which links the People’s Republic of China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye with European markets, into the spotlight since the route bypasses Iran and Russia. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane, also enhances the importance of the TITR (The Caspian Post, March 10). Bulent Aksoy, head of the Turkic World Research Center in Ankara, said, “The Middle Corridor boasts advantages over its northern and southern counterparts, especially due to reducing around 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles) off the journey, which also slashes transport time and freight costs” (Daily Sabah, March 6). The conflict in Iran will test Central Asia’s ability to cope with the skyrocketing oil and gas prices. Prolonged conflict in the Middle East could cause a major shift in regional logistics. In that scenario, the Middle Corridor could become the top option for regional trade, which, in turn, would require significant investment in Caspian Sea infrastructure (Special Eurasia, March 8).