In charts: how is the US economy doing under the presidency of Trump?

In graphics: how is the US economy doing under the Trump presidency? - Author, Ben Chu - Author title, Political and analysis correspondent - Publication date - Reading time: 6 min President Donald Trump has boasted about the performance of the US economy ahead of the midterm elections. He claims that during his government, incomes have increased, inflation has been reduced, and jobs have been created. "We have the most attractive country in the world," Trump has insisted on several occasions. Although the US economy has shown greater resilience than expected following the drastic tariffs of the "Liberation Day" imposed in 2025, there are indications that these measures and the impact of the war between the US, Israel, and Iran have raised inflation. This has affected most American households. The economy is also benefiting from the boom in artificial intelligence investment, although it could lose momentum if this spending starts to slow down. But how does the average American perceive the economy? BBC Verify has analyzed the data to check to what extent the figures support the president's claims. 1. The US economy continues to grow The US economy, in general, continues to grow at a solid pace for the country's standards. The most recent data shows that the gross domestic product (GDP), the most used reference for measuring the size of the economy, is currently expanding at an annualized rate of 2.2%. Since the end of 2024, just before Trump began his second term, the economy has grown by about 3.2%. This growth surpasses that of any other member of the G7, the group of major advanced economies in the world, during the same period. The US economy has grown at a faster pace than expected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following Trump's announcement on April 2, 2025, of a series of new import tariffs. At that time, the organization lowered its growth forecasts for the US, warning that the tariffs could slow investment and consumer spending. It is important to note that Trump considerably reduced many of those tariffs in the following months, which mitigated part of the economic impact that was initially expected. The US economy has also been supported by large investments in artificial intelligence. Large technology companies have allocated billions of dollars to this sector, including the construction of data centers across the country. In August 2026, US business spending on the construction of data centers, not including the IT equipment necessary to make them operational, reached US$5 trillion, almost double the monthly level recorded when Trump returned to the White House. 2. The inflation rebound Many American voters wanted to punish Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential elections by holding him responsible for the strong rise in prices after the pandemic. The inflation rate in the US is currently 3.7%. It is still well below the recent high of 9% reached during Biden's term in 2022, but it exceeds the 3% that Trump inherited upon returning to the White House in January 2025. Many economists believe that inflation would have been lower without the new tariffs imposed by Trump since his return to the White House. At the same time, the war between the US, Israel, and Iran has also contributed to the rise in prices. The disruption of important supplies of oil and other fuels from the Middle East has driven up energy prices and, with them, inflation. The price of a gallon of diesel in the US, a fuel widely used not only by drivers but also by the agricultural and industrial sectors, reached a historic high of US$6.52 in September. The price of some commodities, such as beef and coffee, has increased since Trump's return to the White House, although the price of eggs has fallen. Some American retailers have warned that the rise in energy costs caused by the war with Iran will increase food production costs and end up being passed on to consumers through higher prices in stores. 3. Family incomes lose momentum Average household incomes in the US have continued to increase under Trump's presidency. Median household income, adjusted for inflation, increased by 2.6% in 2025 to reach US$87,460, the highest figure recorded to date. However, the Institute of Tax and Economic Policy (ITEP) has assessed how a series of measures and economic changes have affected American households: - Tax cuts driven by Trump. - The end of federal aid that allowed reducing the cost of health insurance for millions of Americans. - Higher inflation than expected during Trump's second term, partly driven by the tariffs and the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The ITEP's conclusion is that 20% of households in the middle income bracket will, on average, be US$1,700 worse off in 2026 than they would have been otherwise. In the case of the 20% with lower incomes, the average loss will be around US$750. In contrast, it is estimated that the 1% with higher incomes will be, on average, US$12,560 better off, mainly due to the tax cuts driven by Trump. The ITEP's estimates on the impact of tariffs on American households at different income levels generally coincide with those of the Tax Foundation, another research center specializing in fiscal policy. 4. Job creation slowed down Trump had predicted that his tariffs would trigger a "job boom" in the US, as manufacturing companies would move their production to the country and build new factories to avoid import taxes. However, since his return to the White House, the US economy has created an average of 34,000 jobs per month. Although employment continues to grow, this pace is much lower than the 122,000 monthly jobs recorded during Joe Biden's last year in office. Furthermore, the number of Americans employed in the manufacturing sector, which was 12.6 million in September 2026, is slightly lower than that recorded at the beginning of Trump's second term. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate remains relatively low, at 4.2%, a level similar to that when Trump returned to the White House. Part of the explanation lies in the more restrictive immigration policy and the deportation program driven by Trump, which have reduced the size of the available workforce. As a result, the economy needs to create fewer jobs each month to avoid an increase in unemployment. 5. Increase in borrowing costs The US government debt has increased during Trump's second term, partly driven by his broad tax cuts. In the fiscal year ending in September 2026, the federal deficit—the difference between government revenue and spending—reached US$2 trillion, about 6% of US GDP. It is projected that this figure will exceed 8% of GDP by 2030. This high level of debt contributes to boosting short-term economic growth. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that maintaining the deficit through debt issuance, along with the rapid increase in public debt, raises the risk of a future financial crisis in the US, the consequences of which could be severe for most households. The growing deficit is also one of the reasons why the US government must pay more to finance itself in the financial markets. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen sharply since Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 and already exceeds 5%, its highest level since the global financial crisis of 2007. The increased cost of government financing also exerts upward pressure on interest rates paid by households. The interest rate on new 30-year mortgages has risen to 7.4% annually, compared to the 6.9% recorded when Trump returned to power. This exacerbates difficulties in the US real estate market, making home purchases less affordable for many buyers. Furthermore, many homeowners are reluctant to move because they would have to give up the lower mortgages they took out when interest rates were lower, conditions that cannot be transferred to a new home. Graphics made by Erwan Rivault. This article was originally written in English and we used an artificial intelligence tool to translate it. A BBC journalist reviewed the text before its publication. More information on how we use AI.