Iran War: Joe Kent Resignation Bombshell; US Deploys Bunker-Busters Near Strait of Hormuz; Iran Makes Retaliatory Strikes on Israel, Across Gulf for Ali Larijani Assassination; Real World Oil Prices Diverge from Paper Oil

[This Iran war post yet again launched before complete, today due to Links. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT for the finished version] Despite the furor in the US over the shock resignation of MAGA diehard Joe Kent, #2 at the Department of National Intelligence, and sticking the knife in Trump and twisting by saying that Iran posed no threat to the US and we went to war because Israel, this event is a highly-visible mark-to-market of falling support for the conflict in the US, as opposed to something that will change its trajectory.1 Despite efforts at intensification, both sides in the Iran war for the moment are staying on the same level in the escalation ladder, in an attritional slugfest. The Israeli assassination of military chief Ali Larijani is a continuation of its futile efforts to bring Iran into leadership disarray via decapitation strikes. But commentators also pointed out that Larijani, like Ali Khamenei, was moderate, and Larijani could conceivably have supported de-escalation once Iran felt it had made its point. Thus many experts contend that Israel martyred Larijani to make the possibility of some sort of settlement even more remote. For instance: Why did Israel target Ali Larijani, and what are the implications if it is confirmed that he was killed? I see three potential motivations behind the assassination attempt: 1. Israel is trying to literally kill off Trump’s off ramps: Larijani was not only a key figure within… — Trita Parsi (@tparsi) March 17, 2026 And from Bloomberg in Will Larijani Killing Weaken Chance of US Exit Strategy for Iran War?: - Israel’s killing of Ali Larijani leaves Iran’s wartime leadership largely in the hands of hardliners who may be less likely to seek a diplomatic pathway out of the war. - Larijani’s death could block potential diplomatic efforts to end the war quickly, as he was seen as a figure who could potentially act as a conduit to talks. - The killing of Larijani may accelerate the empowerment of hardline and security elements within the Islamic Republic of Iran, with his death potentially leading to further hardline consolidation at the top. On top of that, in response, Iran has simply and publicly doubled down on it planning for assassinations: Similarly, the US show of force by sending in 5,000 pound bombs to hit what it claims were missile sites on the Strait of Hormuz may excite the hawks but is ineffective in reopening the Strait. Iran has among other things underwater drones that can sink ships. Former US army officer Stanislav Krapivnik has colorfully described how easy it would be to drive an old truck to the cliffs overlooking the Strait of Hormuz with drones operated by young men who’d just lost family members in the war, and have them take out vessels in the Strait. Having said that, and I will return to this incident later in the past (or in comments), since the report broke as I was still composing this article, there may have been a failed attempt to move up the escalation ladder, in the form of a strike on the grounds of the Bushear nuclear plant. This may be, like the attack on Kharg Island, which did not target the critical oil infrastructure, intended as threat display. From Associated Press: Iran and Russia both allege a projectile struck the grounds of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the Islamic Republic, raising the specter of a radiological incident as Tehran’s war with Israel and the United States rages. Neither Iran nor Russia say there was any release of nuclear material in the incident on Tuesday evening, but it again underlines a longtime worry of Iran’s neighbors — that the power plant on the shores of the Persian Gulf could be hit by either an attack or an earthquake… Russia’s state-run Tass news agency quoted Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev late Tuesday as claiming “a strike hit the area adjacent to the metrology service building located at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant site, in close proximity to the operating power unit.” Russian technicians from Rosatom operate the plant, using Russian-made, low-enriched uranium. “There were no casualties among Rosatom State Corporation personnel,” Likhachev said. “The radiation situation at the site is normal.”… The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran later issued a statement saying “no financial, technical, or human damage occurred and no part of the plant was harmed.” Iran blamed the incident on the United States and Israel, Tass later reported. The International Atomic Energy Agency, which has had its inspections of Iran restricted over years of tensions over Tehran’s program after Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, issued a carefully worded statement early Wednesday. “The IAEA has been informed by Iran that a projectile hit the premises of the Bushehr NPP on Tuesday evening,” the United Nations agency said, using an acronym for nuclear power plant. “No damage to the plant or injuries to staff reported.” This dangerous provocation seems set to produce even more harsh Iranian strikes, even after it upped the ferocity of its pounding of Israel and Gulf states after Larijani was killed. Even so, despite the kinetic action, what will prove to be dispositive is the tsunami of economic effects about to overwhelm and even potentially sweep away significant parts of the global. Many are in the phase where the water recedes far far further out than normal, and do not recognize what that portends, that they need to flee for higher ground if they can. Admittedly, that retreat is also providing a bit of a spectacle in revealing who has been swimming naked. But (to mix images) as William Gibson observed, “The future is already here – it’s just not evenly distributed.” Some economies and sectors are already experiencing serious dislocations due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and can infer the trajectory if things don’t change very soon. But unlike a real-world tsunami, the continuation of the closure has effects as if the ocean retreated even further from land accumulating even more weight of water before it turns and smashes into the shore. Yet denialism and lack of comprehension, even among otherwise well-informed commentators reigns even as the destructive forces become more powerful. The Trump Administration’s version of the Friedman unit is its patter that the war might take another three, at worst six weeks, as if a closure of the Strait for that long would not be devastating. Israel is also talking in terms of a few weeks, although apparently also occasionally messages that the war in Lebanon might take as long as a year, By contrast, Professor Mohammed Marandi has said that Iran is prepared to fight past the midterms and into 2027. Iran had also warned before the conflict began that if it was attacked, it would close the Strait of Hormuz for at least two to three months. Three months of closure, given how long it would take to get oil and gas production back to their old normal and unsnarl shipping, translates into at best a very deep recession. Six months would mean a global economic collapse. If you did not view this short clip in comments yesterday, please watch it now. Even though Iran has offered some variants on themes for its demands for ending the war, as you can see below, it has two essential requirements, the end of US military bases in the Middle East, and regime change in Israel: 2024 IRAN WAR PREDICTION WAS INSANELY ACCURATE Listening to Iran's Seyed Mohammad Marandi in 2024 predicting EXACTLY what would happen if Israel/U.S. started war with Iran. Man, that was not a bluff. pic.twitter.com/dI0LWXE6cU — Radar 𝘸 Archie🚨 (@RadarHits) March 14, 2026 Astonishingly, even Foreign Affairs, the premier US foreign policy magazine, is warning the US cannot win, in a piece larded with Iran-hate. From How America’s War on Iran Backfired; Tehran Will Now Set the Terms for Peace Foreign Affairs. Please take the time to read it in full. Trump likely wants to declare victory soon. The Iranian military has been severely degraded. Israel may be running low on missile interceptors, and keeping global markets stable will require reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has declared closed to its enemies. But he cannot force surrender on a government that refuses it. Even after the heavy damage to Iran’s military, the regime that Khamenei put in place has powerful incentives to pursue continued conflict, and it retains a variety of tools to sustain a war of attrition. Larry Wilkerson has had several terrific talks in the past 24 hours. Even though his second one, with Glenn Diesen, is in some ways more consequential, in the first with Nima he discusses how Netanyahu is committed to the war even if it results in the destruction of Israel. He also discusses at length how the US depends on NATO allies for key specialty functions like minesweeping, what convoy operations look like, how tabletop exercise for forcing open the Strait of Hormuz showed it would be a bloodbath, and dynamics in the region. Wilkerson also discusses what he sees as progressing dementia in Trump, including that he has been told that those who get near Trump say he smells putrid. Wilkerson’s later chat with Glenn Diesen looks more at the geopolitical consequences. He also discusses at some length the operational as well as political impossibility of reinstituting the draft on any useful timetable: And another cheery sighing on how the war is going from Hindustan Times: Briefly, some additional kinetic war sightings before turning to Joe Kent and the increasing potential for very dire economic outcomes. On the US deploying bunker busters along the Strait of Hormuz. From the BBC’s live blog: US hits Iranian missile sites near Strait of Hormuz The US military says it has struck Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz with powerful bombs that are capable of penetrating bunkers. In a post on X, the US Central Command said US forces had “successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites” along Iran’s coastline of the strait. “The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping in the strait,” the US military says. Iran’s effective closure of the waterway – through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil shipments move – has sharply disrupted maritime traffic and contributed to rising global oil prices.The huge bombs are likely to be similar to the “bunker busters” that the US used when it attacked three underground nuclear sites in Iran last year. Unlike conventional bombs, bunker busters are not designed to explode in the air, on the ground or surface of a target. They are encased in heavy, hardened steel and are made to penetrate deep into the ground before detonating. And: BREAKING 🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 U.S. forces struck underground Iranian missile sites along the Hormuz coastline using 5,000-lb GBU-72 bunker-buster bombs, per CENTCOM. Targets included hardened anti-ship positions threatening commercial shipping. 🎥 Representative video shows the strike… pic.twitter.com/jXw5cvOH5a — FalconUpdatesHQ (@FalconUpdatesHQ) March 18, 2026 On Iran’s retaliation for the Larijani murder: More: Iran launched 100 missiles on Israel, carrying between one and two tons of explosives, in retaliation to the target assassination of Ali Larijani. — Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) March 18, 2026 Iran is continuing to pound the Gulf States, in particular the UAE. You’ll notices a bizarre whistling-past-the-graveyard posture in this segment, of “Of course we will rebuild.” I am told Kuwait never recovered from its early 1990s invasion by Iraq. Note also that the segment above stresses the success in interceptions. Pray tell, how long can that continue? On background developments, from VT Foreign Policy in Russia’s $900M Missile System Just Landed in Iran — America Has No Defense Against It: Russia just delivered a $900 million integrated weapons package to Iran. • 4 S-400 battalions with 384 missiles • 24 Iskander-M launchers threatening every US base in the Gulf • 8 Bastion-P coastal systems with 64 anti-ship missiles • Nebo-M radar that can detect stealth aircraft at 600km . The Pentagon has privately admitted: “Assume all offensive operations are now contested.” Russia just delivered a weapons package to Iran that makes everything America has built in the Middle East over the last 40 years strategically obsolete. Not a single missile system, not a symbolic transfer, not the kind of arms deal that shifts balance marginally and gives both sides time to adjust. Russia delivered an integrated $900 million combined strike and defense architecture that the Pentagon has privately admitted it cannot defeat. Last but not least on the kinetic war front: JUST IN: The US Navy is investigating whether sailors aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford deliberately set fire to their own ship to end the deployment. That is the sentence. Read it again. The $13 billion carrier, the most expensive warship ever built, is now diverting to Souda… https://t.co/LOop7FJIYG pic.twitter.com/VBGKPtZ4QY — Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 17, 2026 On Joe Kent, perhaps I am unduly cynical, I see this event as more a confirmation of of political deterioration of Trump’s position, already reflected in his falling polling numbers, than likely to produce more fractures on its own. Recall that some compared the Kent resignation to Charlie Kirk deciding he had to abandon his support for Israel, which became public despite him being assassinated. Gabbard disgracefully and quickly fell in line (see for instance Gabbard: Trump concluded Iran posed an imminent threat from The Hill). Larry Johnson excoriates her in Joe Kent Hero… Tulsi Gabbard, a Contemptible, Craven Zero. His resignation letter is embedded in this tweet: After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this… pic.twitter.com/prtu86DpEr — Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) March 17, 2026 Many commentators, as Wilkerson did in both his talks above, stressed that Kent was the epitome of MAGA, and a pretty close contact of Trump’s, which makes his claim that that he didn’t know much about Kent characteristically disgraceful. The New York Times (see Joe Kent, a Top U.S. Counterterrorism Official, Resigns Over the Iran War ) and The Hill, among many others, were fast out with coverage, with The Hill also reporting on speedy pushback (Johnson refutes Joe Kent on Iran: ‘There was clearly an imminent threat’ in The Hill, for instance). However, Kent is also a from-central-casting epitome of the current US fantasy of a warrior, sure to widely interviewed. I expect Kent to get the John Kirakou treatment, of the Administration finding a pretext to prosecute him. Now to the economic front. The Financial Times has a fine piece on the way real world oil prices are becoming disconnected from “paper oil.” From Oil in Oman soars above $150 as buyers rush to replace Gulf barrels : Oil buyers are scrambling to replace supplies from the Gulf, causing price leaps for grades around the world from Norway to Kazakhstan and driving crude traded in Oman to a record of more than $150 a barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East has severed about a fifth of the world’s oil production from global markets, boosting demand for grades of crude with similar characteristics to those produced in the Gulf. The growing disruption to supplies has driven a number of regional price benchmarks to all-time highs, even as global marker Brent has fallen back to just above $100 a barrel after jumping to nearly $120 in the early stages of the Iran war. “It’s sheer physical scarcity driving prices,” David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media. The price of a barrel of oil in Oman — which exports from ports outside the Strait of Hormuz — soared to nearly $154 on Tuesday, driven by intense competition for the small volumes still leaving the Middle East…. Buyers seeking alternatives to Gulf crude have also had to pay far more than usual to transport cargoes because of increased demand for tankers, longer routes and soaring shipping fuel prices. Even when a comparable oil grade is available, some refineries might not want to use it because they were unsure how the switch would affect their output, said Philip Jones-Lux, senior analyst at Sparta Commodities. Older refineries in Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and some in Singapore might fall into this category, he said. The cost of crude for Asian refineries had “roughly doubled” since before the war, Jones-Lux said. As the war progresses, the difference between prices quoted on widely used oil benchmarks Brent and US WTI and prices paid for physical deliveries has become more stark. Those benchmarks have not risen as much in part because they reflect prices for light crude with low sulphur levels, whereas the trapped oil in the Gulf is typically heavier and with more sulphur content. “The Hormuz crisis mostly impacts medium-sour crude flows to Asia and there are very limited options to offset flows,” Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis at energy data company Vortexa. Brent and WTI futures also reflect prices for oil delivered in May, by which time some traders hope that flows through Hormuz will have at least partially resumed, whereas physical purchases need to arrive much sooner. “Right now it feels like the paper and the physical market has dislocated,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “[This is] the biggest disruption since the 1970s and Brent can barely hold above $100.” This is a much weaker manifestation of the result foretold in The Naphtha Heart Attack article we discussed last week, which argued that the very light crude of WTI would not just fall in price but even violently invert. So this article could prove to be correct, but seems more likely to have overstated its case of what happens as heavier crudes are even more fiercely bid up and go into shortage as now-much-less-desired light crude is in comparative oversupply. You do not have to look hard to find signs of worry and rising distress in Asia. A few sightings: From a Nikkei e-mail: South Asia Watch: Gas and Goldilocks: India’s restaurants have emerged as the highest-profile victims of the country’s current liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shortages stemming from the Iran war, although the hit to energy supplies has affected the ceramics industry and others, too… its LPG imports through the strait. Panic gripped India last week as LPG supplies to restaurants were stopped and rerouted to homes, with news reports of the hoarding and trading of LPG cylinders on the black market… “Brent crude oil settling at [$100 per barrel] may eventually necessitate the raising of retail fuel prices, which will directly feed into CPI (consumer price index) inflation,” economists at Barclays said in a note to clients last week. “We estimate a direct impact of about 0.5 percentage points from a 10% increase in petrol and diesel prices,” the note added. India has yet to pass on a significant portion of the oil price rise to consumers…. Although wins like temporary passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz help, they only serve as Band-Aids over a gaping wound. For India, which needs to keep up growth rates to employ its young population and raise income levels, an end to the war is the only solution. Every Wednesday a public holiday: Sri Lanka announces measure to conserve fuel Hindustan Times (hat tip retaj) Diesel crisis hits services, everyday life Bangkok Post OilPrice has an informative article on the considerable knock-on effects of the seize-up of oil flows and oil payments. I vastly prefer its “petrocapital” concept to the very misleading invocation of “petrodollar”. It puts the focus squarely on what State Department now-declassified archives (including meeting notes from negotiations with Saudi officials) show that Kissinger and other top officials worried about during the oil shock: how the Saudi massive capital surpluses would be recycled. The US priority was that a large portion not go into the accumulation of investments that would give the oil producing states political leverage, like equities, factories, farmland, but bonds, which produce income but not ownership rights. From How the Iran War Could Trigger a Global Credit Crunch: - The Iran war is disrupting the petrocapital cycle—the flow of oil revenues from Gulf producers into global financial markets—raising the risk of a global credit crunch. - Ongoing attacks, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and financial center instability (e.g., Dubai) are weakening Gulf economies and limiting their ability to recycle capital into global markets. - With financial systems already under strain, reduced petrocapital flows could amplify market volatility, tighten credit, and trigger broader economic shocks beyond energy… Petrocapital in the 70s and 80s was best understood as a regular flow of invested profits from oil exporters. As globalization set in and Persian Gulf leaders sought to diversify their economies away from oil, a growing stream of Middle Eastern capital originating from financial hubs like Dubai and Kuwait has since emerged. Countries like the United Arab Emirates have further encouraged these trends by courting investment in real estate and offering sanctuary for tax exiles, promises which were premised on the assumption that the Persian Gulf would remain stable, peaceful, and a safe place to invest or relocate. Increasing diversification has only encouraged these trends, and the Persian Gulf, before the war, was hailed as a major center for investment and financial capital, as attested by the estimated $1.4 trillion of assets held by the United Arab Emirates’ financial sector as of November 2025…. This disruption to both capital flows and regular operations comes just as global credit markets are already facing growing signs of turbulence. Global stock markets have posted steady declines as rising tensions in the region have fueled fears of a global energy crisis. This comes as debt markets show growing stresses, with one OECD official stating inflationary pressures, like those driven by the present energy crisis, would be a “big stress test”. Private credit markets are also increasingly running low on lucrative contracts and have been forced into tight competition over less and less desirable bids. Bond markets, as recently as the end of February, were also showing signs of high demand in the face of growing economic uncertainty, suggesting there already was a lot of money chasing a dwindling pool of safe assets before the war began. Done for today. Back tomorrow! ____ 1 The analogy is the Nixon Administration Saturday Night massacre. But that triggered Nixon’s impeachment, when nothing of the sort will happen to Trump soon, if at all. The killing of Larijani does not speak well of Iranian competence. They can talk of assassinating Israeli leaders in retaliation but haven’t been able to do it yet. Iran is beating Trump because Iran is sitting on top of the Strait of Hormuz and oil tankers are easy targets , so Iran can bring the world economy to its knees. Of the three countries involved, the U.S. is the least competent because it never occurred to our brilliant leaders that Iran can hold a knife to the throat of the world economy because it is sitting on top of the Strait and does not have to be a military powerhouse to do it. Israel is the best at what it does— smashing things, assassinating top leaders, committing genocide and creating chaos. It is their go- to option and they are used to getting away with it. To me this looks like a war of blunderers, with the likely winner determined by geography. There has not been any definitive proof of life for Barnea, Ben Gvir or Netanyahu since March 2 The IRGC was placed in control. Its equivalent to killing Hegseth when the joint command is running the war. Irrelevant (but as below a mistake). If you see IRGC commanders dying, then its a problem. Secondly, the reality is that everyone will die one day. Sorry to have to mention this uncontrovertible reality. And for older people, that day is much nearer. Sorry again to have to share this shocking news. Given a choice between dying in bed of old age or as a martyr, then that is the will of Allah and to be avenged. Watch any of the videos of marches with missiles hitting a nearby building, and you will see Iran is NOT the West. I have been struck by how emphatic Dr. Marandi has been, over the years, that the West will be punished and that revenge will be delivered. It’s the bees’ evolutionary strategy: birds leave them alone because they know the price is deadly, and there are always more bees. “The killing of Larijani does not speak well of Iranian competence.” That could be true and maybe likely is but another way to look at it is that possibly unlike Israeli and Western leadership, the Iranian leaders choose not to hide. At least not to the point where staying alive becomes the primary goal. Maybe the point they are making is that their lives are no more valuable than anyone else’s and they have accepted that they will be targets. It’s pretty obvious at this point, as you say, what Israel does. Also, not unlike Ukraine, when losing – they look for the big headline. They do not believe in hiding in bunkers on an ongoing basis. So this is not a matter of competence but cultural values. Larijani, Pezeshkian and other top leaders made a point of being in public on the recent Quds Day. So you could just as easily argue that Israel not having taken out many others is a sign that Israeli competence is not all that it is cracked up to be, given their assassination fixation. Wilkerson also discusses what he sees as progressing dementia in Trump, including that he has been told that those who get near Trump say he smells putrid. Yeah, my father and stepmother, dementia struck both hard at pretty much the same time… oh god… the smell… My father was suffering from (then) undiagnosed Frontotemporal dementia and my stepmother from dementia likely caused by an untreated Vitamin B deficency. Personaly hygiene was one the first things to go– they simply were unaware of it, probably due to anosognosia, damage to part of the brain that gives us self-awareness. As persons who work with or are in frequent contact with animal know, an ungroomed animal is a sick animal: we are no different. I know imdoc weighed-in on Trump’s condition, but if Team Trump is found to be pulling a Team Biden, that certainly opens up the question, “who is actually running this country?” “who is actually running this country?” Stephen Miller, Jared Kushner, Bibi, Rubio As eager for his decline as the next relatively sane person, but I watched him take questions on board a plane the other day and while he was as often unfiltered, amused by himself and his power, he also seemed pretty, relatively, coherent. Also–just in the interests of keeping it real–he has been far more accessible than recent presidents. That’s because he does his own PR, loves to hear himself talk. Some decline, clearly, and some serious lapses (as befit his age, the stress.) But I think we may know when he really falters bc his appearances will fall of dramatically or stop? He’s been so public; somewhere somebody is worrying about what happens when he does go. . . LawnDart: The first thought that crossed my mind was flop sweat. Trump may be manifesting physically his fear. I also am thinking of his diet of bad ground beef and bad cheese, which sooner or later gets exuded. So he now smells like a short-order grill at the end of night shift plus aroma of old man. The Japanese, natch, have a word for it. From a blog called Land of the Rising Sun (by an Anglophone in Japan): ‘When butter and meat eating foreigners first arrived in Japan in the mid 1500s, their body order was so powerful, and so unpleasant to the Japanese that prolonged exposure to it made them ill. So from the beginning, foreigners in Japan were known by their distinctive smell. ‘Soon thereafter anything that the Japanese recognizes foreign, including attitudes, manners and products, was labelled bata kusai, or “stinking of butter”, or gaijin kusai.’ Most important is your last paragraph: Biden was Brezhnev, and Trump is Yeltsin. Neither was compos mentis. It occurs to me that the U S of A may be on “auto-pilot” — just a whole bunch of bad habits hurtling along that haven’t yet hit an immovable object. Meanwhile, are the passengers in the fuselage starting to get just a tad suspicious? Biden was Chernenko Foreign enemies of United States. One wonders if the reliance on “targeted” airstrikes focused on specific individuals reflects the talents of the current corporate behemoths expertise. Decades of tech development and analytic frameworks devoted to multi device entity resolution and tracking for advertising is the offering of the current American industrial giants. As opposed to say, the 6.000.000 sq ft Ford city plant on the south side of Chicago – built in less than a year in 1942 that eventually produced over 18,000 B-29 engines over the next 24 months. Contrast the status of China’s production potential to the current use of Ford City as a dying shopping mall. At least they still use some of the old plant to make Tootsie Rolls. Mashallah And it begins. Martin Wolfe in the FT — in the case of this Iran war, . . . there is near-universal agreement, that it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz”. At the moment Iran does. So long as this is true, it is winning. Trump has broken it. Now he owns it https://archive.ph/JSM7p The bombshell in the Kent resignation letter is admitting that the Israelis were not only behind getting us into this ongoing debacle, but also the 2003 Iraq War. Ever seen the latter admitted to by somebody in the highest channels? Never. But I do remember Bibi telling Congress that if the US invaded Iraq, that it would lead to a more stable, peaceful Middle East. Wukchumni: The whole letter is rhetorically red hot. Bringing in his wife raises the stakes. And that signoff. Here’s the cross-reference: Trump: “You’re playing cards. You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III.” Zelenskyy: “What are you speaking about?” Hill is throwing Trump’s words back at him, even though the whole letter has a reek of sycophancy. I don’t mind it if it continues to erode mindless support of Israel, but that is too simplistic. At best I might buy that invading Iraq was an Israeli compromise, with them going along so America would get to their desired endgame, Iran, there were too many people who wanted American control of Iraq with an Iraqi oil bonus. And they had to be placated before anything else was going to happen. Call it the Cheney faction, but even Afghanistan only happened because unfortunately the attack they used to justify an incursion into the Middle East was too clearly based there not Iraq. They used American fear and anger to fake the excuse to make the invasion they had been planning since before the election. Hell less than a month after the Inauguration, Cheney took a tour of Europe and the Gulf States (February of 2017) trying to get a coalition to go after Iraq only to be told they weren’t a problem by everyone. That’s not exactly a big secret and Osama himself said that 9/11 was also about Israel and America’s support for it. Young people recently sharing this claim on TikTok were apparently one reason they had to get control of TikTok. In the Parsi/Napolitano vid the former delves into decades old history that was kicked off when Kissinger transformed our arms length support of Israel by claiming it was a Cold War bastion against the Soviets who then backed Egypt. If one wants to expand this view it would have to include the pre Cold War desire of the British for a settler/colonial outpost in the oil rich, Suez adjacent Middle East. So the Great Gamers then and now have their own reasons for making this tiny country so important but they aren’t good motives or about the incessantly claimed humanitarian impulses. The shooting is real. The crying consists of crocodile tears. There was an interview on NPR this morning with Marty Skovlund, Kent’s co-author of a book about Kent’s wife and her death in the war (Send Me: The True Story of a Mother at War). https://www.npr.org/2026/03/18/nx-s1-5750522/joe-kents-co-author-talks-about-the-counterterrorism-officials-resignation NPR’s Steve Inskeep pushed back on that particular part of Kent’s resignation letter, calling it an “antisemitic trope”. To Skovlund’s credit, he said that there was nothing antisemitic in the letter and moreover nothing antisemitic in criticizing a country that led the US into wars – and that Kent never said anything against a religion. Rubio: “we did it because of Israel” Kent: “we did it because of Israel, and Iraq too” Dems: “anti-semitism!” I wouldn’t write off decapitation strikes as futile. When Trump took out Soleimani, he was replaced by the traitor Qaani, who Israel and the US to the murders of many prominent resistance leaders, including Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyeh, and now Ayatolla Khameini Sr. He may have even provided Soleimani’s coordinates for that original assassination that elevated him. The more leaders they take out, the likelier it gets that they get replaced with someone compromised. or they murder someone who is compromised. As Trump admitted already. History shows that older, more conservative leaders are replaced by younger, more radical and aggressive (and stronger) leaders. A natural succession (old die, young replace) that often doesn’t happen in a timely manner in peacetime. Look at the drug cartels – killing or arresting the leader has not won the war on drugs in what 50 years since Nixon declared it? And the new cartel leaders are much more willing to use civilians as pawns. The problem is that assassinations of leaders create a situation where warfare becomes total – no off-ramps. That is why Europe generally avoided it during its millennia of continuous warfare – if there is no off-ramp, there is no rebalancing of geostrategic power at the end of the war, and then you got wars that dragged on for decades in which everyone loses. This is what Glenn Diesen talks about in depth in his works on the Peace of Westphalia. In terms of political consequences for Trump for his catastrophic rule, most intensely this war, the present problem is gerrymandering. Most Congressional seats are “safe”, meaning November voters always pick the candidate of one of the parties, regardless of who that person is. That reality means primaries–which generally occur June through August depending on the state–determine the November outcome. Trump is currently viewed as able to dictate outcomes in Republican primaries. For so long as that is true, most Rs in Congress will not buck him. If they don’t buck him, there cannot be political consequences before November’s election. I am hoping that as primary season plays out, Trump’s endorsement is proved ineffective; in that case, consequences will start flowing quickly. If Trump’s power holds, November is likely the soonest Congress will do anything to hold him accountable. Meanwhile, as the economic damage builds, I think the risks that Trump is assassinated rise, as does the currently infinitesimal possibility that people in the administration start trying to have him removed for incapacity. That chance may never grow beyond infinitesimal, but the Epstein class may decide Trump must go, and they have only so many ways to make it so. Not all members of that class are rabid Zionists. >>>On background developments, from VT Foreign Sorry to be “that guy”…that article needs to be taken with a healthy dose of salt and/or verified with actual primary sources, ie from the Russian media. the Twitter-sphere projects a lot onto this idea of a platonic ideal of a RU-IR-CN grand team and conflates thinly sourced, anonymous reporting with fact. historically, Russian sales of missile systems to Iran have been mired in semantics eg, agreeing to not reverse engineering Russian tech, etc. (maybe this changed recently) Just being honest, and if there really is a S-400 battery waiting in Iran, the Iranians sure are taking their sweet time using it. I suggest you stop being derisive, particularly when you show your knowledge is limited. Or to be more blunt, use a search engine rather than Making Shit Up in the form of a knee-jerk, unsubstantiated rejection First, only Russia has effective air defenses and even then shit gets through. You need a multi-layered system and satellites. S-400s are not a wonder weapon in isolation. Look at how Israel, which is as big as a postage stamp, is integrated into US satellies and was widely seen as having the world’s best air defense system, came up badly short in the 12 Day War Second Iran already has S-400s but got them only recently: https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/why-iran-didnt-russian-s400-repel-us-israeli https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H4n3emIjck Specifically, it started testing late last summer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2C1d-zbnsRY Experts have said it would take months to a year to fully integrate them Third, Iran is HUGE. Even with S-400s, Iran would have to pick and choose what to protect. The one S-400 battery that exists in Iran was deployed to protect its nuclear sites. So it is not being used for Tehran where the assasination strikes took place. It takes years to train a competent ADS crew. The Iranians only got the S-400 last year, so they haven’t had much time to train their people on it. Also, Putin himself said a few months ago (after the 12-day war but before this current war) that the Iranian government has never asked Russia for military assistance. He was answering a reporter’s question to him asking why Russia hasn’t done more to help Iran against the Israelis. The Iranians are apparently a very proud people who don’t like asking outsiders for help. I agree. If Russia were providing air defense systems to Iran, it would be major news. Therefore, it’s inconceivable that the mainstream media hasn’t covered this story. Moreover, considering Russia’s own shortage of air defense systems, it’s highly unlikely that it would supply Iran with its valuable S-400s. Russia has multiple generations of S-400s. Russia HAS ALREADY SENT S-400s, FFS. Russia signed a defense pact with Iran. Russia cannot let Iran lose this war. Iran is on the Caspian Sea as Russia is. Russia would be next on the menu I suggest you rethink your assumptions New Trump Truth Social – [TACO curious? Bloviating? Ramblings of a fool?] I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Straight?” That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast!!! President DJT There’s a follow up fwiw Remember, for all of those absolute “fools” out there, Iran is considered, by everyone, to be the NUMBER ONE STATE SPONSOR OF TERROR. We are rapidly putting them out of business! New weird Bibi vid also.This one combines the world’s worst comedy double act (Mike Huckabee as the straight man) with a sociopath vibing secret kill list. https://x.com/netanyahu/status/2033938254831956091 His hair looks weird but I’m thinking it’s just AI image polishing. Dude is more unnerving when he fakes geniality than when he’s in standard aggressive sociopath mode. Is it too early to start normalizing the term ‘AI Bibi’ yet? Re India’s restaurants that were mentioned in this post. I heard that they are no longer deep frying food anymore in them as it uses too much LPG gas which they do not have enough of. Never saw that coming. This one has been making the rounds yesterday. See Bibi’s left hand @ 0:12. On Russia’s $900 M weapons package: Big if true.. but is it? Anyone have any corroborating sources? Got done a bit late. Please refresh your browsers and re-skim. Some material was added up top as well as later on You are continuing with the great posts Yves. I learn so much here. Thank you! Israeli reports of air strikes on Iranian hydrocarbon infrastructure today. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-890393 Oh that was stupid if true. Or are they trying to deke Iran into a response that gives Israel a pretext for going nuclear? Even if so, Wilkerson discusses that even nukes won’t be terribly effective against Iran given its size. I think that was in the Diesen video > Even if so, Wilkerson discusses that even nukes won’t be terribly effective against Iran given its size. I think that was in the Diesen video It was. He also talked about w/Nima repeating the “they’d need to fire more than a dozen) but in less detail. Now being picked up by FT and other sources, but with the spin that “Iran says..” Yes, and Perera has now posted that “Iran just published satellite photographs of four Gulf petrochemical facilities with identical Arabic warnings overlaid in red: evacuate immediately, military strikes within hours.” The Middle East is the largest polyethylene exporter, which is used extensively in food packaging and transport. Another escalation in the economic war. Link: https://substack.com/@shanakaanslemperera/note/c-229601851 As was mentioned in comments a few days ago. The MEU being sent from Okinawa does not seem to be being reinforced by other ground troops.To my knowledge rumors of the 82nd Airborne being alerted have not been substantiated. IMHO the only practical use for the MEU by itself is for a Non-combatant Evacuation Operation (NEO). They may be getting ready to pull out civilians in mass. Russia’s $900M Missile System Just Landed in Iran — America Has No Defense Against It Wow. It’s a new day, and it appears that we’ve entered a new phase of the war. The author states. Every aircraft, every fuel depot, every command center, every ammunition storage facility at every American installation in the Gulf can now be hit by a weapon that no American defensive system has ever successfully intercepted. And, Centcom has issued what officials describe as operational pause directives for all non-essential missions within S400 range. Wow. Remember how US/NATO sent all those weapons to Ukraine? Payback is a bitch. [Reuters] US encourages Syrian action against Hezbollah, Damascus is hesitant, sources say The United States has encouraged Syria to consider sending forces into eastern Lebanon to help disarm Hezbollah, but Damascus is reluctant to embark on such a mission for fear of being sucked into the war in the Middle East and inflaming sectarian tensions, five people briefed on the matter said. — Re-posted from yesterday’s Iran war update. This sounds like a case of “let’s you and him fight”. Have Syria and Hezbollah beat up on each other, deflecting the latter as least to some extent away from Israel, softening up the situation for a supposed 450,000 reserve (5% of the Israeli population?!? I don’t think so) invasion, and after that is all said and done Israel maintains and perhaps even extends the territory it has captured in Syria for eventual annexation. My suspicion is that the Syrian government will continue to respond with a polite “no thank you”. CNN Headline: Iran’s chokehold on Hormuz threatens India’s beloved samosas and chai. Does this count as a rung up on the escalation ladder? The fate of Ben Gurion airport will be an indicator of the outcome of this war. If Iran’s missile arsenal is not depleted by U.S. and Israeli strikes, then Iran will be able to destroy the airport, a vital commercial and military asset. If the airport continues to function, then we will know that Iran’s offensive potential has been neutralized. Maybe not. Iran has been warning people to leave that country. Also there were reports yesterday that Iran had started destroying ISR train stations. There is one rail line that moves people North-South. It is also used for troop movements. Jonestown redux, Stockholm syndrom, or really good hash? Looking for plausable explainations here… ‘A deluxe war’: Why Israeli support for the battle with Iran has stayed so high Surveys by the Institute for National Security Studies likewise show overall support holding firm. Its first poll, released on March 3, found that 81% of Israelis backed the operation. In a second poll released on Tuesday, the number was 78.5%. … The latest IDI survey found that 79% of Jews feel somewhat or very protected from Iran’s attacks. Among Arabs, the number was 15%. If US public support for the war continues to erode, likely because of consumer rebellion, US politicians will seriously be put into a bind between their constituents concerns and those of their AIPAC paymasters. Of course, martial law could help to allieviate this dillema… There are reports of an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure, including on CNBC. Professor Marandi commented on X: Iran is ready for total war and will have a firm response. Based on prior warnings from Iran, their response is likely to be an attack on infrastructure in the monarchies. If that tit-for-tat spirals up, the straight will be a non-issue. There would be no gulf oil for years, worst case. DD Geopolitcs on Twitter (7min ago) 🇮🇷🇸🇦🇦🇪🇶🇦 Iranian media linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued an urgent warning to civilians near the following sites: 🔸️SAMREF Refinery – Saudi Arabia 🔸️Al Hosn Gas Field – UAE 🔸️Jubail Petrochemical Complex – Saudi Arabia 🔸️Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex & Mesaieed Holding (Chevron-affiliated) – Qatar 🔸️Ras Laffan Refinery (Phases 1 & 2) – Qatar The statement says these locations are now considered legitimate targets due to ongoing regional escalation. Civilians and personnel in the vicinity are instructed to evacuate immediately and move to safe distances to protect their lives. It also reiterates that Iran previously warned regional authorities against aligning with external pressure and entering a path of escalation. The statement holds those governments fully responsible for the consequences of their decisions Team z looks cornered with the only choices being escalate or admit defeat. I get an uneasy feeling when I think about the USS Gerald R. Ford. It looks like bait. Gerald R. Ford is heading to Souda Bay naval base at Crete for a week of repair — which, by the way, is within range of Iranian hypersonic missiles. What if Iran waited until the Ford was ready to pull out, and then hit it with a couple of missiles? On the news tonight they talked about 100 Ukrainians being stationed in the various Gulf states due to their anti-drone expertise. Then you add in the fact that the US has made a whole bunch of drones which are a carbon copy of the Iranian Shahed drones. That strikes me a good combination to launch false flag attacks and the like on various targets with the fact that it was Ukrainians doing this providing good deniability for the US & Israel. This is the second time NC has remarked on Trump’s body odor, for NC to do this indicates that the allegation is well sourced if anonymous.. And that is very bad news indeed, because it indicates that Trump is rotting while still alive… Literally rotting while “running” USG. Vance is no bargain, however he is not overtly insane, someone whose body and mind are literally rotting away seems to me to be a greater danger to the World. “Putrid” odor, Uh oh. ‘ This is the first time I have posted on this. Wilkerson said that in his Nima video, and I doubt he would have done so if he did not have more than one contact reporting that. Admittedly, it could have been one original source getting to Wilkerson through 2+ channels, leading Wilkerson to think it was >1 as opposed to 1 sighting But he would not say that if it was not from someone credible, as in someone who would get in proximity to Trump. On the VT piece of Russian hardware transfer to Iran, the writing is exactly the same style as the AI China guy’s YouTube videos (ever-changing channels). Where I have cross-checked, they have been seemingly accurate – for example, Asian guy reported on heavy damage at Ben Gurion airport – I checked, and MSM reported Ben Gurion was hit ({snark} but the MSM then sang happy songs of no real damage thanks to the effort of all the puppies and kittens – so cute {/snark}). Asian Guy also reported of underwater launch tunnels, which Alistaire Crooke confirmed a few days later (so not scraping his transcripts). OTH, Asian guy has multiple times asserted that US controls Iranian airspace (which is patently false – where are the videos of jets over Tehran or the sound of jets during explosions caught on video/ Alistaire Crooke) – but then went on to explain that airspace control is not a determining war factor – airpower has never caused regime change. This story is consistent with Larry Wilkerson reporting, to I think Rachel Blevins, that the US Navy is moving another 300 km further away. Stanislav has sussed that the latest Russian hardware (planes and S-400) are almost certainly being run by members of the Russian military (as happened in the Vietnam war – Soviets flew planes – or most recently with sheep-dipped NATO running the Patriots in Ukraine). This likely greatly shortens the time to get running. Then they wait for the B2s to enter Iranian airspace. Transfer of Iskanders to Iran, if true, is a game-changer. The range of the earliest Iskanders is 500 km, the latest variant is 1000-1500 km. ‘Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86 JUST IN: The US Navy is investigating whether sailors aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford deliberately set fire to their own ship to end the deployment.’ Understandable if true. I think that they were supposed to be out for only six months but it keeps on getting extended again and again. By the time they get back to the US they would have been gone for nearly a year and you miss a lot of family events in that amount of time. Maybe the Navy brass do not want to blame their brand new carrier and certainly they won’t want to blame themselves for agreeing to all the extensions so it is easier to just try to blame a bunch of swabbies and be done with it. If morale is so low on this carrier, what is it like on the other navy ships in this region? They had to go to the bathroom and couldn’t hold it any longer. Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure and storage facilities, part of the South Pars gas field. South Pars accounts for about 75% of Iran’s natural gas production about 80% of the country’s power grid runs on natural gas. This is a massive escalation in the conflict. Striking civilian infrastructure marks the beginning of a new phase of the war, from limited clashes to full-scale economic warfare, giving Iran every right to respond in kind to any attack.