Arthur Hayes: Strong Revenue and Real Trading Could Send HYPE to $150

Arthur Hayes: Strong Revenue and Real Trading Could Send HYPE to $150 Hayes said Hyperliquid’s strong revenue, real trading activity and disciplined token supply could push the token to new highs. Why Arthur Hayes is bullish: In an interview with CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie on MArkets Outlook, Hayes said Hyperliquid has separated itself from competing perpetual futures exchanges with real usage rather than incentive-driven volume. - Hayes told Sanasie he sold his firm’s HYPE position around $50–$55 ahead of expected token unlock pressure but turned bullish again after the team chose not to sell most of its monthly token allocations. - He said Hyperliquid still generates close to a $1 billion annualized revenue run rate based on 30-day fee data. - The platform’s HIP-3 permissionless listing system has expanded trading beyond crypto into assets like oil or equity indices. What’s driving activity: Hayes said traders are increasingly using Hyperliquid to access markets unavailable through traditional platforms. - Retail traders can trade assets like oil or Nasdaq proxies 24/7 on-chain using stablecoins and crypto wallets. - Hayes said leverage of 10x–20x is often available compared with the 2x–3x many retail investors receive on traditional brokerage platforms. - Weekend geopolitical events, such as sudden conflict announcements, have pushed traders to use Hyperliquid while traditional markets are closed. Why Hyperliquid stands out: Hayes argued Hyperliquid’s liquidity and trading metrics show more genuine market activity than rival decentralized exchanges. - Many competing platforms rely on wash trading or token incentive programs to inflate activity, Hayes said. - He evaluates exchanges using the ratio of trading volume to open interest, which he said helps identify genuine trading demand. - Hayes said Hyperliquid has the lowest ratio among major perpetual DEXs, indicating more “real” trading. - The platform also offers the lowest slippage for large bitcoin perpetual trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million, he said. What could derail the thesis: Hayes said rising hype and stronger competition could signal a potential exit point. - He said he would reconsider his position if HYPE’s price-to-earnings ratio rises sharply and market sentiment becomes overwhelmingly bullish. - Another risk is whether competitors offering lower fees can erode Hyperliquid’s roughly 70% share of perpetual DEX revenue. - Hayes said maintaining strong revenue and continued restraint in team token selling are key to sustaining the bull case. Beyond HYPE: Hayes also highlighted privacy-focused crypto projects as a developing narrative. - He said Zcash could benefit from growing concerns about blockchain surveillance and AI-powered transaction analysis. - Hayes cited Zcash’s cryptographic upgrades and privacy model as reasons he favors it over alternatives like Monero. Bitcoin outlook: Hayes maintained his aggressive forecast for Bitcoin. - He reiterated that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year despite missing earlier targets. More For You Circle overtakes BlackRock in tokenized Treasuries as market hits record $11 billion Circle’s USYC tokenized U.S. Treasury fund has grown to $2.2 billion, surpassing BlackRock’s BUIDL fund as investors increasingly seek onchain yield and collateral. What to know: - Circle's USYC token has become the largest tokenized U.S. Treasury product, with about $2.2 billion in supply, overtaking BlackRock's BUIDL fund. - Much of USYC's recent growth is tied to its use on BNB Chain, with Binance introducing the token as off-exchange collateral for institutional derivatives trading. - The overall market for tokenized U.S. Treasuries has surged to a fresh record of over $11 billion, up 27% this year, fueled by investor demand for yield and a place to park capital during the crypto downturn.