Beef Market Update: Strong lean beef demand supports cattle prices despite boxed beef pullback

Beef markets are holding steady heading into Easter, but underlying signals—from packer disruptions to shifting wholesale spreads—are adding complexity to the outlook. In this Beef Market Update, Shaun Haney speaks with Anne Wasko of Gateway Livestock Exchange about current price trends, wholesale market dynamics, and what’s supporting the cow market despite softer boxed beef values. Wasko says cash markets have remained largely unchanged this week, even as a major packing plant strike reduces slaughter capacity. “We’ll call 235 live and a 372 delivered dressed market fully steady with last week,” she notes, adding that Alberta trade has also held steady. On the wholesale side, however, there are signs of pressure. The U.S. choice cutout declined roughly $10.50 on the week, and in an unusual shift, traded at a discount to select. “It’s the market’s way of saying… we’ve got enough choice product. Let’s put the coolers on for a minute,” Wasko explains. Despite that softness, she points to seasonal factors—cool spring weather and high retail prices—as temporary headwinds ahead of an expected post-Easter demand lift. At the same time, strength in lean trim markets is providing important support. Record-high 90 lean beef prices are underpinning cow values and driving increased imports. Wasko highlights that U.S. January imports were up 8 per cent, while Canada saw a 28 per cent increase in February. “That lean trim… is still trading at record levels,” she says, noting its role in both the domestic grind market and processed beef demand. While short-term signals are mixed, the broader story remains one of tight supply, firm cash trade, and continued support from the processing side of the market. This episode of the Beef Market Update is brought to you by Bright Young. Get the mix they love most. Talk to your retailer about Bright Young's forage seed options for a happy healthy herd. We're going to do a beef market update with Ann Wasco, the Gateway Livestock Exchange. Ann, how are we doing today? I am good. Good morning to you. Yeah, it's good to chat with you. A lot happening. Give us an update of what's going on. The cash markets, are we still rocking and rolling or are we sort of showing weakness? Kind of a pre Easter quiet down. Obviously we have, you know, a very large packing plant on strike which started last week. And so you know that news is, has worked through the market but now we're into the mathematics of, you know, that slaughter is, is not there. Markets though have kind of just traded steady in here this week where. And there hasn't been a pile happened as of Friday morning, but looks like 235 will be close to our market again which was where we were last week. So we'll call 235 LIVE and A 372 delivered dress market fully steady with last week. Same kind of storey in Alberta. The market for what traded has been at 540 delivered steady. That, that equates Canfax's average last week based on that was 322 and a half. 322.50 live. If somebody's wondering what the live market looks like today, I did want to circle around and talk about the wholesale markets. We always talk about the choice cut out in here. And this week it did close about 10 and a half bucks lower than last week. So it struggled this week. 389.90 was the number if somebody's wanting to follow that. But I think of more of interest was that the choice cut out as of last night was actually $2 discount to the select market. And you go, oh my goodness. Like does that ever happen? Yeah, well, the answer is not very often. But it's, it's the market's way to say well, we're ahead of Easter. Beef sales are so, so at this point in time prices are record high at the counter. Just, it's, it's the market's way of saying, hey, we got enough choice product. Let's, let's put the coolers on for a minute. So select is unbelievably $2 higher. But again it's just the market's way of how it sends its signal. Don't forget, Shaun, that now the choice and prime or choice and higher market is, well, especially in the US, well over 85% of the slaughter. And in Canada, about AAA and higher is about 80% of the market. And so our kill has largely become choice and higher or AAA and higher. And so the market's saying, well, that's enough. So again, Easter's coming up next weekend. We've got these record prices. It isn't exactly springtime here in Western Canada as we look at snow on the ground. So I don't know who's pulling the barbecue out right now, but I think, you know, these things are kind of typical for March. And once we get Easter and spring, well, Easter behind us and spring coming, I think those things will, you know, we'll still see a seasonal improvement to beef prices and beef demand. But that's where some people are having to shovel their barbecue out. Exactly. Like. So depending on where you live, that could be an issue. Or you just light it and hopefully it melts the vicinity around the barbecue. There's that, too. I can, I can still do a mean prime rib, roast the oven. So I think that's what's up this weekend. Oh, okay. Okay. It's very up and down weather when it comes to the northern, the northern tier of the United States and Western Canada. Well, even eastern Canada, it's, it's still. We went in like a lion and we're going to leave like a lion, too. Really? Really. What's that? Hey, we had a question from a member of the audience asking how is the Packer margin calculated? When we talk about Packer margins, can you talk about how we come up with that? Yeah, and there's been, and that's a good question because there's been some big swings just even here in the first three months of 2026. So if you recall when we started these, our calls earlier this year, back in January and February, we were talking about, you know, record losses. Of course, 2025 was a big loss year on average for packers in the US And Canada. So, you know, that had carried on into the first part of this year. And then all of a sudden, last two weeks ago when we talked, I'm talking about, you know, packer margins are back in the black and it's so. Fair question. And again, it's, it's math. And when we talk averages, just like anything, Shaun, it is simply that it's an average based on. It's. It's math, it's formula, it's a math. And so what, what those, that report these prices in The US use is basically this week's average cash market, next week's average wholesale market. Based on these choice levels that we're talking about, they deduct an average kill and fab cost and that comes up with the number. So it's, it's straight averages. I think one of the points that the question, if I recall, was trying to get at, well, how many cattle are really sold on the cash? Like how do we figure that out? And again, in the US and Canada, on average it's about 20%. But don't forget that a lot of the, the grid sales and whatnot are still based off of cash markets. And in the US they do have mandatory price reporting both on cash cattle and on wholesale beef prices. So packers have to report, you know, what they purchased and what they sold at. It's a, it's an Indian Audi. So nobody's got the same cash cost to fab and kill cattle, but it's an average across the board. So it is what it is. Take it for what it is. It's like trying to say what was the average margin for a cow calf producer last year? Well, it's all over the map. We know it's a big number, but it's all over the map. That would be the same, same kind of thing in terms of talking about how we establish and talk about packer margins now. One last comment, Shaun. We can't do that in Canada. We do not have wholesale prices reported here in Canada. So it's a US US number. Again, I'll soapbox it here. I, this is Canada, land of no transparency. And we were, this is the same argument for why there's probably no price transparency on the wholesale beef market in Canada is the same thing that comes up when it comes to why we don't have grain export. Weekly grain export reports is because, well, you know, it'd be a competitive thing and you know, there's only so many players and it would impact the market and all this kind of stuff. We, I, I wish we had access to this information, rely on the transparency. In the U.S. yeah, it's like it's the identical comparison between whether you're talking about grains or whatever. But you know, we want, we always like to talk about, you know, information is knowledge and all that and, and we just don't have, we, we lean on the voluntary reporting and what Canfax does and thank goodness we have that. Hey, quickly, before we wrap up imports, you have some trade data? Oh, I did want to make, I just want to make a comment talking about the fact that choice prices were down. Well, lean trim, that 90 lean trim, which was our cow, beef, hamburger, beef or import beef. It's still trading at record levels. So even though I've talked about a little bit of a sluggish choice market this past week, we've got record levels on that 90 lean that's supporting our call market if you're moving, you know, dries to town or whatever this spring. And it also attracts imports. Right. And so import into the US this past January were up 8%. We were, we've got February data for Canada and we were up 28%. So again, imports up, exports down. But these are record hamburger prices at a wholesale level. That's leading some big hamburger prices at fast food joints too. Yeah. Yes, yes, yes, yes. Even I think even like sandwich places. Oh, yeah. Any. Any place that's. Well, beef prices are high, but anybody that's using this, this is a product that goes into processed, manufactured type market as well. Deli meats, all the rest of it, 100%. Same idea, same influence. Yeah. We were out and ordered a couple subs and I looked at the bill and I thought, did we go to the keg? What happened here? I don't think we went to the keg. But anyway, hey, and have yourself a great weekend. Really do appreciate it. Okay, thanks. You too. Shaun. Thank you for downloading this episode of the Beef Market Update brought to you by Bright young. Cheque out their silage and grazing corn stock blends or custom build your own mix for a happy, healthy herd. Talk to your retailer today.