Brazil split in two: where can Lula make a comeback and what is missing for Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil goes to the polls divided and in a climate of growing tension. The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, faces a difficult battle for re-election and needs to overtake, while the opposition senator Flávio Bolsonaro seeks to expand the unexpected advantage he obtained in the first round. Both candidates face each other this Sunday, October 25th, in a second round that is expected to be very close, according to the latest polls. On October 4th, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro obtained 47.03% of the votes, compared to Lula's 45.16%. Since then, hundreds of thousands of sympathizers of both candidates have taken to the streets to support them. This effervescence has generated moments of tension. Lulistas and Bolsonaro supporters have provoked, insulted, and shouted in broad daylight. The confrontation has also been transferred to social media, where both campaigns have tried to wear down their rival. Lula, aged 80, seeks his fourth non-consecutive term and faces one of the greatest challenges of his career: no candidate who was behind in the first round has reached the Presidency. Between 2022 and 2026, the leader of the Workers' Party (PT) has lost 3.4 million votes. "That fall was concentrated especially in small cities where agriculture has a greater weight in the local economy," he explains to EFE Felipe Nunes, a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) and director of Quaest, one of the most influential demoscopic firms in the country. Furthermore, when comparing Flávio's results in 2026 with those of his father, Jair, in 2022, the son "grew in 98% of the municipalities, but advanced more in those where grains, livestock, and large properties structure the economy," according to Nunes. Goiânia, the capital of the state of Goiás, is one of the centers of the Brazilian agricultural economy and it is not difficult to find voters disillusioned with Lula who now support Bolsonaro there. Pamela Lima, 24, tells EFE that she voted for Lula influenced by her professors, but that she "deeply regretted" when she started having contact with self-employed workers, like herself. Flávio defends promoting self-employment and making the labor market more flexible, despite Brazil registering unemployment at historical lows. In the same vein, Wilker da Silva, a 40-year-old decorator, admits that he voted for Lula in his first terms (2003-2010), but the corruption cases of the last decade led him to Bolsonaroism. "Too much corruption, blatant, and no one can take it anymore. Never Lula again," he expresses to EFE. The fear of the rival's victory also weighs on the campaign. According to Quaest, 43% of voters are more afraid of the return of the Bolsonaros and another 43% are more afraid of Lula's re-election. "Among those who fear Flávio's victory, the reasons include rejection of him or his family, authoritarianism, and corruption. Among those who fear Lula's re-election, corruption, concern about the economy, and a negative view of the Government stand out," Nunes details. With a small percentage of undecided voters (1-2%), Lula bets on seducing abstentionists. In the first round, 33.4 million Brazilians did not vote, which represents 21% of the census. However, abstention has always increased in the second round of presidential elections since 1989. The only exception was in 2022, when it dropped by only 0.36 percentage points, which translated into about 570,000 more voters. Lula has also multiplied his government announcements in recent weeks: he increased the main social subsidy by 15%, banned sports betting, launched aid for self-employed workers, and managed to get Congress to approve a reduction in the workweek from 44 to 40 hours per week. Flávio, for his part, gained the support of writer Augusto Cury and former Governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado, who finished third and fifth, respectively, in the first round. The senator led the vote in 15 of the 27 Brazilian states, including São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro, the three most populated. The key will be whether Lula maintains his advantage in the northeast, the traditional bastion of the left, and shortens distances in the rest of the country. The answer, in five days. With more personal grievances than proposals, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his rival Flávio Bolsonaro debated for the first time on television on Sunday, October 18th, one week before the electoral runoff in Brazil, which leaves them tied in the polls. (AFP) ABOUT THE AUTHOR Agence EFE is a Spanish international news agency that distributes information to more than two thousand media outlets around the world in written press, radio, television, and the internet formats. It has a network of more than three thousand journalists of 60 nationalities. It operates 24 hours a day from at least 180 cities in 110 countries. Read more