RealAg Radio: Partisan politics in agriculture, an NDP platform & the price of farmland, Mar 27/26
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it's time for RealAg Radio on rural radio channel 147 on SiriusX. RealAg radio and real EggCulture.com is your home for insight and analysis of the issues that are impacting your farm business. Let's get real and get connected with RealAg Radio. Welcome to RealAg Radio here on Rural Radio 147A SiriusXM. Shaun Haney, your host here on this Friday edition of the show tgif everybody, thanks so much for making Real Light Radio and Rural Radio 147 a big part of your workday. Also, huge show to every listening out there on the Real Light Radio podcast. We'll also have a bonus segment today for all all of our podcast listeners. So great Friday show here lined up. We've got Anne Wasco from the Gateway Livestock Exchange. She's gonna do a beef market update. We've also got a Real Life Issues panel as we do every Friday. This is one of, I know one of your favourite shows of the week. We've got Tyler McCann Capi, Kelvin Hepner from Real Agriculture and Lindsey Smith from Real Agriculture as well. We're going to talk about what the RealAg audience said in terms of what they think about the performance of Prime Minister Mark Carney after one year. We've got some interesting details on some of the NDP ag platform. I know Kelvin's going to update us there. And we also had Farm Credit Canada come out this week with their 2025 land value report. You heard JP Gervais earlier this week on the show Talk giving his analysis. Well, we're gonna get the panel's analysis on that as well. Now if you have any feedback we want to hear from you, send me an email shaneeyeal agriculture.com you can also call or text the real life feedback line 855-776-6147 back home today. What a week of travel. If I was going through the airport yesterday like a ma. I thought it was late for my flight to cheque in. I couldn't get the cheque in on the app to work. I ran through the airport all the way back to the United desk, all the way back to the Air Canada, all the way back to United. I was sprinting like I'm not getting pull a hamstring or do like go, you know what? Over tea kettle. I. It was, boy, I was. I was almost. I was breathing so hard, I was like, I think I'm have a heart attack. You're going through security. That would have been very interesting and a little bit of drama to that, but I made it and here we are and I'm looking forward in the home studio to bring you RealAg Radio here today. Let's take a break. When we come back, we're going to get to an Wasco, the Haywood Livestock Exchange, right after this. If you're serious about agriculture, Real Ag's got you covered.
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It's now time for a product Spotlight, joined right now by Cocoa Economic Services. Bryce Geisel. What's the key takeaway for growers heading into this season on this topic?
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So to learn more about protecting your nitrogen investment, make sure you go to defend your N CA or talk to your local retailer. And welcome back to REAG Radio. You know, before we get to the relag issues panel coming up, we're going to do a beef market update with an wasco, the Gateway Livestock Exchange. And how are we doing today? I am good.
Good morning to you.
Yeah, it's good to chat with you. A lot happening. Give us an update of what's going on the cash markets. Are we still Rocking and rolling or are we sort of showing some weakness?
Kind of a pre Easter quiet down. Obviously we have, you know, a very large packing plant on strike which started last week. And so, you know, that news is, has worked through the market, but now we're into the mathematics of, you know, that slaughter is not there. Markets though have kind of just traded steady in here this week where. And there hasn't been a pile happened as of Friday morning, but looks like 235 will be close to our market again, which was where we were last week. So we'll call 235 live. And a 372 delivered dressed market fully steady with last week. Same kind of storey. In Alberta, the market for what traded has been at 5:40 delivered steady. That, that equates Canfax's average last week based on that was 322 and a half. 322.50 live. If somebody's wondering what the live market looks like today, I did want to circle around and talk about the wholesale markets. We always talk about the choice cut out in here. And this week it did close about 10 and a half bucks lower than last week. So it struggled this week. 389.90 was the number if somebody's wanting to follow that. But I think of more of interest was that the choice cut out as of last night was actually $2 discount to the select market. You go, oh my goodness. Like, does that ever happen? Yeah, well, the answer is not very often. But it's, it's the market's way to say, well, we're ahead of Easter. Beef sales are so, so at this point in time, prices are record high at the counter. Just it's, it's the market's way of saying, hey, we got enough choice product. Let's, let's put the coolers on for a minute. So select is unbelievably $2 higher. But again, it's just the market's way of how it sends its signal. Don't forget, Shaun, that now the Choice and Prime or Choice and Higher market is, well, especially in the US, well over 85% of the slaughter. And in Canada, about AAA and higher is about 80% of the market. And so our kill has largely become choice and higher or AAA and higher. And so the market's saying, well, that's enough. So again, Easter's coming up next weekend. We've got these record prices. It isn't exactly springtime here in Western Canada as we look at snow on the ground. So I don't know who's pulling the barbecue out right now, but I think, you know, these things are kind of typical for March and once we get Easter and spring, well, Easter behind us and spring coming, I think those things will, you know, we'll still see a seasonal improvement to beef prices and beef demand, but that's where we are.
Some people are having to shovel their barbecue out exactly like.
So depending on where you live, that could be an issue.
Or you just light it and hopefully it melts the vicinity around the barbecue. There's that, too.
I can, I can still do a mean prime rib roast in the oven. So I think that's what's up this weekend.
Oh, okay. Okay. It's very up and down weather when it comes to the northern, the northern tier of the United States and western Canada. Well, even eastern Canada, it's still. We went in like a lion and we're going to leave like a lion, too.
Really?
Really.
What's that?
We had a question from a member of the audience asking how is the Packer margin calculated? When we talk about packer margins, can you talk about how we come up with that?
Yeah, and there's been, and that's a good question because there's been some big swings just even here in the first three months of 2026. So if you recall, when we started these, our calls earlier this year, back in January and February, we were talking about, you know, record losses. Of course, 2025 was a big loss year on average for packers in the US And Canada. So, you know, that had carried on into the first part of this year. And then all of a sudden, last two weeks ago when we talked, I'm talking about, you know, packer margins are back in the black and it's so fair question. And again, it's, it's math. And when we talk average, it's just like anything, Shaun. It is simply that it's an average based on its math. It's formula. It's a math. And so what, what those that report these prices in the US Use is basically this week's average cash market, next week's average wholesale market. Based on these choice levels that we're talking about, they deduct an average kill and fab cost and that comes up with the number. So it's, it's straight averages. I think one of the points that the question, if I recall was trying to get at, well, how many cattle are really sold on the cash? Like, how do we figure that out? And again, in the US and Canada, on average, it's about 20%. But don't forget that a lot of the the grid sales and whatnot are still based off of cash markets. And in the US they do have mandatory price reporting both on cash cattle and on wholesale beef prices. So packers have to report, you know, what they purchased and what they sold out. It's a, it's an Indian Audi, so nobody's got the same cash cost to fab and kill cattle. But it's an average across the board. So it is what it is. Take it for what it's like trying to say what was the average margin for a cow calf producer last year? Well, it's all over the map. We know it's a big number, but it's all over the map. That would be the same, same kind of thing in terms of talking about how we establish and talk about packer margins now. One last comment, Shaun. We can't do that in Canada. We do not have wholesale prices reported here in Canada. So it's a US US Number.
Again, I'll soapbox it here. I this is Canada, land of no transparency. And we were this is the same argument for why there's probably no price transparency on the wholesale beef market in Canada is the same thing that comes up when it comes to why we don't have grain export weekly grain export reports is because, well, you know, it'd be a competitive thing and you know, there's only so many players and it would, it would impact the market and all this kind of stuff. We I wish we had access to this information, rely on the transparency in
the U.S. yeah, it's the identical comparison between whether you're talking about grains or whatever. But you know, we want, we always like to talk about, you know, information is knowledge and all that and we just don't have, we lean on the voluntary reporting and what Canfax does and thank goodness we have that.
Hey, quickly before we wrap up imports, you have some trade data.
Oh, I did want to make, just want to make a comment on. We were talking about the fact that choice prices were down. Well, lean trim, that 90% lean trim, which was our cow beef hamburger beef or import beef. It's still trading at record levels. So even though I've talked about a little bit of a sluggish choice market this past week, we've got record levels on that 90% lean that's supporting our call market if you're moving, you know, dries to town or whatever this spring. And it also attracts imports.
Right.
And so imports into the US this past January were up 8%. We were. We've got February data for Canada and we were up 28%. So again, imports up, exports down. But these are records. Hamburger prices at wholesale level. That's leading some big hamburger prices at fast food joints, too.
Yeah. Yes, yes, yes, yes. Even, I think even like sandwich places.
Oh, yeah. Any, any place that's. Well, beef prices are high, but anybody that's using this, this is a product that goes into processed, manufactured type market as well. Deli meats, all the rest of it, 100%. Same idea, same influence.
Yeah. We were out and ordered a couple subs and I looked at the bill and I thought, do we go to the keg? What happened here? I don't think we went to the keg. But anyway, hey, and have yourself a great weekend. Really do appreciate it.
Okay, thanks. You too, Shaun.
Okay, we're back on RealAg Radio. We've got the RealAg issues panel standing by back right after this. Peter johnson@WheatPeak RealAgriculture.com I'm the host of the Word and I love doing the Word. I love the questions. I love the challenges. I love having to apply agronomics to all over the globe and areas outside of my normal jurisdiction. Also, I love the feedback the most. Where growers challenge me, tell me about their plot results, help me to learn the Word. Absolutely the best part of my day.
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We have so many issues to talk about here today on the ag issues panel. Hey. This segment's brought to you by Field Heroes, powered by the Western Grains Research Foundation. Whether you're a farmer, researcher or educator, visit FieldHeroes CA to learn how beneficial insects can work for you, of course, Season seven. Season seven of the Pest Predator Podcast has launched, and it is a lot of fun talking to some great entomologists from across the country. That's the Pest and Predator Podcast brought to you by Field Heroes and. And the wgrf. Okay, let's get into our panel here. Let's bring them in. Up first, we got Lindsey Smith coming out of Ottawa, Ontario. Lindsey, how are you doing?
You know, I'm doing well. I might be doing better than a couple of you on the panel, to be honest. I slept so all good.
There's some short sleeping going on. Very much so, yeah.
Very much so. It was minus 12 this morning, though, Celsius, for all of you Americans out there. And I am very over it. Like, I'm very ready for warm weather.
I almost got into a fist fight with a parking metre last night. I couldn't get my parking code to scan. And when it's like 12:30 at night and you're trying to call for assistance and nothing works. And anyway, that was. It would have been. I've got a couple of things. If there were videos of me, like, on some sort of, like, security camera, call the authorities. I did another one running through the airport yesterday. That was almost. I'm out of shape. I need to start doing some running. Also joining us is Kelvin Hefner coming out of Altona, Manitoba, where Kelvin. I'm hoping it's a little bit warmer than what Lindsay's experiencing.
We're actually very similar. We've had a return to some cold temperatures this week and woke up to a blanket of fresh white powder on the ground this morning as well. Just a blip. I think it's supposed to turn warm here again over the weekend, so. Hoping. Hoping it does.
Crazy weather this week, baseball season after all. Right, well, hey, Blue Jays, opening day.
It is today.
And let's remember, if we lose tonight, Kelvin, the season is not over.
Well, if we set the bar low, we learned this last year, we set the bar low, we can exceed it by 20 wins and. And make it all the way to within an inch of the World Series.
So, you know, you know, it's gonna be annoying this year when mid June, maybe mid July, we're five games out, and all the bandwagoners that love the playoff run are gonna be like, this sucks. Weren't we in first, though? We were better than this. And then they'll trickle away again.
They'll come back and fall.
They will come back and fall.
The AL east is going to be tough again, though.
Very.
It's. It's a good division again.
Absolutely. Also joining us, maybe the biggest baseball fan of all is Tyler McCann. He's the managing director at Cappy. Hey, Tyler, how's it going?
I'm doing well, Shaun, but I'm gearing up for square dance season. Actually, never mind this baseball shenanigans, but we've got our first 4H square dance competition this weekend and hoping it's going to be a good run.
Interesting. So is it. Is. Is it a. A dancing pair that's judged or is it a group? How does this. Because I've never been to a square dancing competition. I mean.
So we'll start with some basic geometry. Shaun, how many sides are there in a square?
Quicker version to this, please.
How many sides in a square?
There's four. Four.
So there's four couples that dance in a square dance. We get judged with our square. There's individual prizes, too, for the best couple. And then we've got some junior callers that are doing it. So the Shovel 4H club's got three teams that are competing this year and feeling pretty optimistic.
Is there.
Can I just.
Yeah, go ahead.
I have a question. You know, there's like that show, like Dance Moms, like, where it's like, you know, reality. Is there, like. Is there, like, square dance dads? Tyler, you're like. You're part of it.
Well, so I'm like, kind of the caller and coach, so I'm a little bit more intense maybe than some. But we've got some moms that are pretty. Pretty intense in all of it. But last night was our dress rehearsal for the competition, and. And there was some enthusiastic encouragement provided from me to the dancers about what they could do better.
The pep talk.
Yeah. We tried to end on with high fives to end it all, but, you know, I got them bringing their A game.
See, he broke their spirit. Lindsay, what he's really saying.
That's right.
He broke them down and then at the end, he. Build them back up.
Builds them back up. Yeah. Okay. So that was a yes to me.
So you're a caller. So you're the person that's like, swing your partner round and round, like, that's you.
Yep.
Yeah, I do that.
I mean, we've. So we've got a couple of young members that do the calling now. So, like four years ago, I probably called for most of the four H teams, but I don't anymore because we've got members that are doing it and they do a great job. So it's super when you've got like a 13 year old and a 21 year old doing the calling and the 40 year old gets to just sit back and watch and offer some positive words of encouragement, huh?
Very fascinating. Let's get into some of the issues of the week. Now last week the panel gave well a pretty lofty rating about the first year of Prime Minister Carney. They were quite positive these three panel members. So we thought we'd do after the show is let's ask the audience what does the audience think about one year of Prime Minister Mark Carney? A rating of one through five, one being an epic fail and five being tremendous. I can't remember the exact words that Lindsey used there. Lindsey. 85% were a one. So 85% of the people that answered the poll but 1500 people said the first year of Prime Minister Mark Carney has been an epic fail. Have I described that correctly and what do you think?
Well, I did go just before we went live because we've, we've moved on to our next poll and thank you to everyone who voted because yes we had 59 votes. It, it landed at 82% so slightly lower but really not a essentially rating him a 1 an epic fail. Now I did tally up the fours and fives so on the gold star tremendous the four and fives together are 12%. So it is a very stark, very one sided the majority of people who answered the poll. Now this is let's we can talk stats all we want etc. But the vast majority of those that weighed in said absolutely epic failure.
Yeah. My thought all week has been Kelvin, that in engaging with audiences and different speeches across the country outside of a few areas I would say and they would match with some of the electoral maps, I'm really not surprised. There seems to be a lot of unhappiness in farm and ranch country when it comes I'll sum it up. A lot of people see the Carney Liberals being the same as the Trudeau Liberals just with different names and I'm putting, I'm putting words in people's mouth but that's how I would interpret. I've interpret what I've heard from audiences.
Yeah, I think that is the case definitely. And a lot of that I think has to do with the scope of how what you're, how how into the day to day versus the the real high level picture you are when it comes to paying attention to the policies of federal government. And as a result when the Carney government starts talking about things that people want to hear or people find pleasing to hear, which is probably why we gave those higher marks last week. It takes time. There's a huge lag between that and action. And that was the thing we did raise last week, is that there's a lot of talk about the right things and the right priorities, but not necessarily follow through on action. And I think the general public and many people in our audience, it's about the action and about how it impacts their pocketbook and them personally at the end of the day. And we haven't seen a change there from the Trudeau to Kearney Liberals. And so that's where I it make the poll results make some sense. If you look at it from the differing scopes where those of us on the show here today, we have the luxury as part of our jobs as being in the nitty gritty and paying attention to every word and or parsing more specific speeches and things like that, where other people are watching more general trends and whether the ship has actually turned around, that kind of thing in the big picture.
Yeah. During the period where there was Prime Minister Trudeau, we used to ask in our CFSI or Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index surveys, how do you feel the provincial government is doing to support the industry of agriculture? We'd also ask about the federal government and farmers were quite negative. The provincial number kind of moved, but still quite negative. But the federal number was about 2% being positive. 2% saying, yeah, the federal government's supporting the industry. We're going to ask it again in April and maybe do because I think this 82% could actually be an improvement to where we were. We'll see to that. But sorry, Kelvin, what'd you say?
I think the storey has changed there, though. We could see the same result for different reasons where the Trudeau government was seen as negative to agriculture for many of policy reasons, prioritising emissions reductions and talk about fertiliser restrictions and that type of thing. Whereas now the Carney government could be graded poorly on it because of the cuts to agriculture and Agri Food Canada that are being rolled out right now.
Fair. Good point. Tyler, you wrote, you were so inspired, I think when you saw some of the initial poll results. You wrote a column first thing Monday morning, got it off to us and you've your thoughts are is that there's a bit of a gap here what's happening to and what the farm audience thinks. But also I want you also maybe more importantly to talk about the reaction that you got from people that in
your circles so My thoughts and kind of distilled these over the weekend, spending some quality time on a tractor thinking about the state of the world. My thoughts really distilled down to a lot of this, I think is a partisan political reaction where the farm audience just really, I think, is hunkered down into a very strong conservative vote. And I think that that's an issue that we've got. I mean, go back to some presentations that I was giving like four years ago, where identifying kind of that partisan nature of kind of the farm vote makes it where conservatives take the farm vote for granted and the Liberals aren't interested and they don't care enough. And in my mind, that's what that kind of poll result showed. And that reflects, I think, again, the thing that we all hear when we think about go to a coffee shop or an ag conference or machinery dealership. You're going to hear, I think, similar messages from a lot of people in kind of at the Farm Gate. And it's interesting because I got more reaction to that column than I typically do. When I write something,
I think a
lot of people really agree and if anything, kind of the reaction often included here are other ways the Conservatives are taking the agvult for granted. Renewable diesel came up as an example of that. That kind of a lack of recognition of the support the biofuels policy came out. I had included some references to some issues, kind of a longer list of trade issues where the Conservatives might be softer than you would like them to be in the ag space. And on the flip side, I think that we're holding the government to a higher standard than what we hold Conservative governments to. Again, I was a staffer in the ag minister's office in 2012 when the Conservative government went through cuts. And you know what we did at the time? We closed research stations and we cut research spending. And so, yes, that's unfortunate, but I don't think that we should be seeing as this is some sort of like partisan attack on agriculture. If anything, closing research stations as a bipartisan effort in Canada. And so I really just think that we need to have a more honest and open political conversation. And I think if we were having that and we were more open about, hey, what parties are interested and what are parties doing for the sector, we might actually get better results because it might actually motivate the Conservatives and the Liberals both to try a little bit harder when it comes to doing things that resonate in farm country across the country.
I also wonder, I think we talked about this last week. There is for a lot of people, there's a positive. Maybe. Is there an overshoot as well on Carney because relatively speaking, he's viewed as so much better than the last guy that it's. You say we're being easier on Conservatives, but are we not? We could potentially being easy on Prime Minister Carney because everything is a comparison to who we had and this is an improvement. Don't get me wrong, I believe that, but I'm not sure we've seen really what we totally need from a sector perspective. Lindsey, go ahead.
Well, so, and I think that that's part of the key point here, is that, like, to Tyler's point, it's not to say that Agriculture generally should suddenly be super supportive of the Liberals by any stretch. That's not at all what we're saying. And I think that criticism of what Carney has actually delivered on is incred, incredibly valid and really important. I think the point is, is that if, if as an industry, you know, let's hold this statistic and I mean, it's one poll and. But we see it in the CFSI data as well. If you are so closed off from even considering them to be doing anything like just so partisan that no matter what they do, because to me, there's a certain level of like, this is not performance based. This is politically slash, like philosophically based. So if that's the case, it means that the liberals never have to listen to a thing you have to say. And it also means the cons can do whatever they want and no one's held to account. And that's the crux of it here, is that if there's no opportunity for any sort of dialogue or working together or useful criticisms, then we're exactly back to square one, which is exactly where we are, which is the conservatives don't really have to perform and the liberals are never going to win anyway in the egg space. So it doesn't leave any room for improvement.
But you've been listening to some of my speeches. This is like my opening.
I haven't. I, I'm here at home.
But. Yeah, but to wrap up before we go to break it, there are, this is not just, you know, if it is about solidified partisan views, which does exist on the right, it also exists on the left. And we saw that in some people's reaction to the Pierre Poliev appearance on Joe Rogan where he. There's nothing that he could have done to sway some people's opinion because people are locked in and there's going to be. There's going to be segments of the voting public on both sides that you just, their mind's not changing. And what we saw in the last election, there is a, there is a swing in the middle and Carney took, he tapped into it and took advantage of it. And, you know, thank you to the White House for that. Hey, we gotta take a break. We're back with more of a RealAg radio here in the RealAg Issues panel, back right after this.
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The fact you ask it that way is extremely telling because this race, I'm really following it. This is a party that 15 years ago was second in national, won 103 seats, formally six seats in the House of Commons after a floor crossing again to the Liberals this last earlier this month. And so yeah, the leadership of the NDP will be decided in Winnipeg on Sunday. It's a ranked ballot and this is potentially a pivotal moment in drawing the party back out of its historic low presence in Ottawa. But when you look at some of the agriculture and food type policies on the platform here, I think they're, oh,
give us a highlight. Come on, come on, spice it up here, Give us a highlight.
Avi Lewis is the heavy favourite based on fundraising totals. He's an activist, former CBC journalist, co author of the Leap Manifesto, has deep roots. Stephen Lewis was his dad. He's married to Naomi Klein, the activist. He is proposing a national chain of publicly owned, nonprofit union staff grocery stores. So one comparison I saw was New York. Yeah, New York would be. It's similar, similar type thinking and policies as what we're hearing from the mayor of New York. He's also talked about creating a public farms fund to help municipalities buy farmland as farmers agencies, then paying those farmers to mentor young producers who would then rent the land back from the municipalities. An expanded mandate for Farm Credit Canada to invest public funds in local infrastructure hubs, food infrastructure hubs, to get outside of corporate value chains in food policy. So this is the front runner, potentially shaping what NDP ag policy will look like going forward. And he's been endorsed by former NFU presidents Stuart Wells, Nettie Wiebe. David Suzuki is on his side. So the more pragmatic candidate in this race is the only sitting MP. Her name is Heather McPherson. She's an MP from Edmonton. And there too she's tried a more pragmatic approach, talking about the need to rebuild the party and have representatives running in all the ridings across the country and that type of thing. Not as much ag policy. She's been endorsed by former NDP ag critic Alistair McGregor, who We've had on this show before. So. And also Premier Rachel Notley of Alberta, former premier, former Saskatchewan Premier Lauren Calvert is also endorsed here. So it'll be interesting because if Lewis wins, it'll also really damage potentially the relationship with the provincial level of the NDP party, where the NDP is much more relevant. They are either in government or official opposition in, I believe it's six provinces across, across Canada. And so what happens to that federal provincial relationship in the NDP and how damaging is it to the provincial brand of the NDP if they have Abby Lewis as the national leader?
Lindsey, here's what I want to know. Tyler, when he walks into that voting booth this weekend as an NDP delegate, who is he choosing?
Yes, I think that would be. It is very cold, but hell has not frozen over. So I don't think we're going to go that far.
What I did, unfair for us to ask him to disclose that here on the show.
It may be unfair to ask such a thing. Yeah.
For the listeners, I am wearing my orange sweater today.
You are. So I feel like that Might be a bit of a tell. Yeah. Okay. But to Kelvin's point, and this is the one of the things I find interesting. So first of all. Exactly. That McPherson is the only one who actually has a seat and has won a couple times to actually sit in the House of Commons. So I do have to ask, like, NDP wise, what are. Do you plan on ever being a party again? It's a question. But what I find fascinating about the NDP side is that. Exactly that to Kelvin's point, we have, you know, from a provincial level, you know, WAB KANU is like the superstar premier and all these sorts of things, and the ties between provincial and federal NDP are actually, like, actually exist. Whereas when it comes to Liberals and Conservatives depending on the province, like, some are very different. They, you know, they distance themselves from each other, et cetera. And so it does sort of beg the question. Exactly. That if they go with the supposed front runner based on fundraising, he has double.
More than double fundraising of McPherson Place and like three or four times more contributors in terms of donations reported to elections count. It's not.
But the way that's true. But the way the NDP votes, though is different than say the Conservatives that send delegates and the delegates vote the ndp. It's. If you're a member, you vote. So I mean, let's face it, any, like fundraising shows who may be powerful people support. It doesn't mean that that's who the party supports. Sports. Right. Like the party membership. So, yeah. So as much as the NDP is like kind of irrelevant at this point, they aren't kind of in that we know what happened. Well, they're.
As the Conservatives want to win another election, they. They need the NDP votes on the left side of the spectrum.
Exactly. That's what I'm saying.
Oh, Tyler, you're just making. Tyler. Okay, Tyler, before we go there, can I just say to your point about the provinces we had on relay on the weekend last week we had NDP AG critic for Alberta Heather Sweet, MLA from Edmonton Manning on the show. A lot of stuff she was talking about, she sounded like a conservative would. Right. So I. To your point, there is a lot of difference provincially and federally. So Tyler, finish up before we take a break.
So one, I am supportive of any party that has AG platforms these days. It turns out like the bar was lowered in the last federal election. And so kudos to all of these NDP leadership candidates for at least doing that. Where I disagree is that I think that kind of. That political realignment has happened so much that the NDP just isn't relevant. It's not clear to me. Again, I think the Conservatives do have a path to winning without a strong ndp. We're at kind of this where we were in the last federal election, 42, 43% of the vote. Like you don't necessarily need the NDP. So I think they're not hugely relevant. They may be down to five seats in the House very quickly with the Quebec MP leaving. And so it's hard to see. And if they picked this kind of a radical activist, I don't know. I don't think that we have to worry about a strong ndp. I don't think we have to worry about a weekend AP for a long time.
That means conservatives need 48% of the popular vote to win an election, though, or something like that.
No, again, it depends what happens. Depends what happens in Quebec. Depends what happens with other things. It's not usually that straightforward, but. But again, I know that Kelvin, the good prairie populist, probably going to be very disappointed to see the NDP wiped off the map, but it seems like it's on the way to happening.
Says the guy wearing an orange sweater. Okay, we'll take a break. You're listening to Real Life Radio. We are having fun and if you don't get the jokes, it's okay.
Sorry.
We'll be back on Real Life Radio right after this.
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by Mazec Seeds and Lalamom Plant Care. Hey, welcome back to RealAg Radio. Hey, cdc. Evanoderm from Alliance Seed is the the clear Choice for Plant 2026. It delivers high grain yield, strong disease resistance and excellent end use. Suitability with CDC evident, you'll set a new standard for Durham performance. Learn more by going to allianceseed.com I got three leg issues panel Shaun Haney, your host Lindsay Smith, Kelvin Hepner of Real Agriculture as well as Tyler McCann, managing director at CAPI. Okay, where do we want to go here? Oh Kelvin. CFIA has delayed some labelling on fertiliser. This is I think one where Care the organisation represents the ag retails. They were big time working on this fertiliser Canada was is obviously pretty passionate about it. It's not an issue that a lot of people in the farming audience were really aware of. Wasn't getting a lot of talk what's happened here.
This is an example where sometimes red tape reduction is is is not having new red tape added I guess right. Yes picture but this is regulatory changes happened back in 2020 requiring this has been an issue in the news this week. Both English and French labels language labels on fertiliser products and bulk fertiliser has been exempt from this until now. It was supposed to take effect in July of this year that you were required to have bilingual label on bulk fertiliser including custom fertiliser blends that farmers pick up with their own truck, that type of thing and so CF as of last week agreed to delay this implementation or enforcement of this regulation until 2027, giving it at least another year. And so Fertiliser Canada is welcoming this pause. There's also some requirements around traceability and being able to have lot numbers for custom fertiliser blends that type of thing that logistically practically at the fertiliser retail when it comes to bulk fertiliser and how farmers pick it up and that type of thing would have been difficult to implement and would have cost a bunch of and added costs in several places here. And so they're looking for a solution to meet this official so it's a requirement under the official Languages act as we've heard in the discussion around the Air Canada CEO this week, the need to satisfy that requirement at the federal level but not practical at the retail level. And so trying to figure out a resolution there. CFIA has agreed to kick it down the road.
Look at some fan feedback here. Jerry, longtime Real Agriculture fan says typical liberal government create a regulation to solve a problem that doesn't exist. French invoicing an IP product that goes into the ground. I could lay awake at night and never dream up such stupid regulations. Appreciate that email Jerry. I think probably a lot of the audience would tend to agree. Okay, Lindsey, fcc. We had JP Gervais from Farm Credit Canada on the show earlier this week and land values for 2025 increased 9.3% over 2024. That's the same increase as 24 over 23 provinces. Clearly we got a separation here. Prairie province is doing a lot better in from an appreciation standpoint on land values compared to say Ontario, definitely British Columbia and even Quebec.
So I don't know that there's huge. From someone now living in Ontario, I think the province posted a 2.2% in increase for 2025. That probably, yeah, feels about right in that like I would say just in the last two years, two and a half years, things are not necessarily moving. Things are actually going up for sale. Like that's, that's actually I think an indication at times of like, hey, what's going on here? In that so often farmland changes hands without ever a sign going up. Right. I mean it's who you know and what's happening and those sorts of things. Whereas we've actually seen, at least in my area and other parts of the province like actual for sale signs going up and land not necessarily moving. So not entirely surprised there. BC actually did have a contraction on farmland values, which is pretty surprising. So I for one, though I'm actually a little shocked at the 9.3 being the average. That's a lot. At the same time I think it just further underlines that realistically farmland values are not about farm profitability. They're, they're real estate. So that, I mean to me it's just underlined on this whole report.
Yeah, I did ask JP this question because you look at the residential real estate market or commercial real estate market, we talk about days, days on market. Right. And that data is not available in this case. You have to think based anecdotally that days are higher than they were say to two years ago. Back to that sign effect that you talked about, Tyler. Actually I did some research this week. The Canadian and US numbers are about the same. 80, 82% of the farm balance sheet is land value, which means that this is a pretty important number. The land value market is an important indicator in terms of the, the financial direction that the industry may be taking
and it's really quite something. I think if you look at kind of the pent up demand for land that exists, like if it gets to the point where these numbers like softening is one thing, if the numbers start going in the other direction, that will be a very different dynamic. That we're in again, it's hard to imagine, hard to kind of see that happening. But I think it just adds to this, this kind of view that we need to be a lot more thoughtful about where we're at on farming economics this year around kind of what are the impacts, what's driving this, what are the long term trends that are, that are putting pressures and causing issues. And I think all of this gets to be a kind of uncharted territory almost if we really do get to the point that some of these numbers go down. I guess I'm a bit of a sceptic that things are that soft. I think one of the things that the FCC number showed right. Is that these are like regional issues and there's some different things happening in different places that kind of may be playing into that too. Right.
Kevin, what's your reaction to. Is there any province that stuck out to you or trend? Like I've been talking a lot in my speeches about we've been increasing at a decelerated rate. This kind of pauses that a little bit. If you look at historically going back 10, 15 years, I think from my perspective this was a positive number because if it was a 6% that creates a little bit of a different narrative nationally, for example. But Kelvin, what were your thoughts?
I agree though I'd like to see and I know you asked JP about it, kind of the information around this, this is one way of measuring land demand, the number of buyers, the number of days on market, that type of thing. Just anecdotally, again, I don't have data, but I'm in my mind. The only way it makes sense is that the number of buyers is dramatically lower than it would have been five, 10 years ago. And there still are the buyers, there are still people with, with capital to keep the land price increasing. But in terms of number of bids, I'm thinking in a lot of cases it's 2 or 3 instead of 20 or 30 kind of thing that it would have been a few years ago.
And there's been a lot of talk about farmland coming up for sale in Saskatchewan. And yes, Saskatchewan still continues to have the big number across the country. Right. So it's hard to know what's really going on there.
Yeah. And I posted a storey. I went back to October of 2024 in our Canadian Farmer Sentiment Index. We had asked farmers what they thought was going to happen in the go forward in the land market. People are a lot more pessimistic than what the reality shook out to be nationally only 36% of farmers thought the land value market would go higher, period. That's just not like, that's just go higher, only 36%. So it clearly did not, you know, and if you thought that land values would increase, 44% of those people thought it would be a 3% increase or 5% increase or less, 47% thought a 6 to 10% increase and 6% predicted an 11 to 15% increase. So we were a little bit more pessimistic than rally, sir. Go ahead, Kelvin.
You only need two buyers though, or two bidders to make the price go up, though. And so that's where I think there's consolidation happening here. And so in some cases, and it's also new sources of equity. People are becoming more innovative in terms of financing and farm structures and that type of thing. And that's unlocking some of this value as well to acquire the land at the higher prices, I think.
Yeah. Love your thoughts on this, everybody. You know, it's pretty passionate topic. I hear a lot of people in, you know, in this show and speeches where it's, you know, it's. There's a lot of talk about the 80s and we're going back there. There's people wanting land to go lower so they can afford to maybe expand their farm for succession reasons or just overall operational reason reasons. And there's also people say we can't afford a lower land market because of how stretched our debt to equity ratios will become and things like that. So there's lots of different perspectives here and appreciate everybody that contributes to those wide ranging perspectives. Lindsey, something we saw this week. Now it's been in place for a while, two months here roughly. But a lot of National Ag Week in the US There's a big celebration at the White House today. I want to talk about the product of USA labels though. USDA really pushing this, what CCA would describe as a maybe the world's most restrictive label when it comes to these kind of labelling on food born, raised, processed, harvest, harvested and packaged. The whole chain must be in the United States. And USDA and Secretary Rollins has been really pushing it this week. I'm very curious about what the uptake is because it's voluntary. And so that's really the critical piece here.
Yeah, that is. And I've been following along certainly, you know, through social media, etc. Some of the people, I follow some of the accounts, some of the news accounts, you know, really for some of the people who have been participating in some of these events, who Met with Secretary Rollins, et cetera, you know, really pushing this. To me, it is very clearly a excellent promotional marketing bent and tool because they never say it's voluntary. So it really, you know, like. And understandably so in that realistically, when you know, the rubber hits the road, it's a voluntary label that for those products that meet the criteria, they can use that label. And so what they're, you know, celebrating is that this label is that restrictive. Realistically though, what will the uptake be on that particular label? And if there is value in that label, we may see that more companies or supply chains want to use that label and therefore are going to have to change their supply chains to do so. And do you know what would happen if they did that? The cost would go up.
Prices, so.
Yeah, exactly. So at a time, yeah, prices would go up. So at a time when affordability is really being pinched and potentially even more so week by week, as this war in Iran continues. I get the marketing spin, the feel good message when you're talking to a whole bunch of farmers to say, like, we have this great label and that means like 100% in the U.S. that's great. It's feel good, it's whatever. The reality is, though, is that we don't know how often this label would be used and what supply chains would use it. And if they did, what that would do to the price you would pay at the grocery store or the meat counter.
Yeah, like one of the, one of the realities here is that, you know, Canada in 2025 imported 500,000 feeder cattle from the US into Canada, though, you know, let's say a portion of those because, you know, they will. Some, some will be fattened entirely in Canada, some will be backgrounded as stalkers and then maybe end up in a US yard to be finished. Let's just say they're backgrounded. If they. They've set foot, you know, their passport essentially says, hey, they were fed in Canada. All of those other criteria would have been met. But some feeding happened in Canada. They do not qualify for that product of USA label, which is. That's the restrictive nature of this. This all started because beef was coming out of Central America in a box. The box was being unpacked in at port, repackaged and then putting a product USA label on it. So the push for this to be changed was necessary. Serious scope creep when it came to the outcome. At the end of the day. Tyler, do you have any thoughts on this one?
Yeah, I think it's a lot to ask for consistency in the US government these days. But if you look at what the US administration has done around this versus around what they've done around Argentinian beef quotas and bringing more product north and kind of all of these other things that are playing out, they giveth with one hand and they take us away with the other. And I think it's just a lack of understanding of how these markets really work in the state of the beef industry today, where we do have supply chain shortages. I would imagine that's part of what Ann will say in the beef market updates today is that things are pretty tight. And so I don't understand why anybody thinks that kind of the solution is to tighten things up any further at this point in time when the beef industry's got its own issues.
NCBA provided some positivity around some of the discussion this week. I think it's being framed in the sense of it's an option and again, it comes down to the adoption of the label versus like if now, you know, CCA is concerned about the fact if it's like voluntary but it's made mandatory just through mechanisms, then that's a whole different storey. But there's a company out there that wants to market and feels they're going to get a premium product for saying product usa, USA label. I guess good on them. But it definitely does impact some of the free trade between Mexico, Canada and the us. Hey, we are out of time but we are going to have a bonus segment here very quick. If you have any feedback, send me an email. Shaneeyealagriculture.com Appreciate all the panel members being with us here today. Kelvin Hepner, Lindsay Smith and Tyler McCann. Thanks so much everybody for getting real and getting connected with RealAg Radio.
Thank you for downloading this RealAg Radio podcast brought to you by High Performing Carbine Insecticide from fmc. Carbine insecticide hits aphids hard with effective selective extended control. It also has activity on live ibis and tarnished plant bugs. Ask your retailer today.
Here we are in the bonus. Yes indeed, everybody. Why wouldn't you have a bonus when March Madness is underway as kind of a basketball reference there? March Madness has been fantastic. My bracket shit. Absolute shit, I tell you. And this is something I've prided myself in over the years. I'm actually pretty good at picking brackets. Like I've won the family bracket. We have. I won some ones with some buddies and this year I am terrible. Not, not as bad as I am in the real life hockey pool I think I'm like kelvin. I'm like 265th. There's only like 295 people in this sucker.
I got up as high as 115 this week, but I'm back down to 130.
So this is again one showing. You need to know nothing about fantasy sports to do well. This is like my thing. I, I listened to Kelvin, I picked Leafs. This was my problem. I picked Leafs.
This is your problem.
That's the problem this year. It should turn around though. They're starting to win now. They want to give. They want to give Boston the better draught pick next year. I guess so.
Okay.
Look at that.
I haven't tried to turn it into.
It.
Yeah, exactly. Turn it into a positive. I don't think so.
No, it's the opposite. They need to keep losing.
Yeah, they do now. Yeah. You may as well commit now and get the better pick. But anyway. Yeah, pretty much. Anyway. I don't. I completely forgot about March Madness, so. Sorry, Shaun.
You forgot?
Yeah, it's just. It doesn't come across my radar.
No game for the cycles today. We have Iowa State.
Yeah. We have different algorithms. I think we've talked about this.
I think March Madness in 2026 is a war in Iran. That's March Madness.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
I'm gonna focus on the basketball. It's just brings more happiness. I was at Iowa State's campus this week and people are revved up, they're excited. It was, it was, it was a good week. I was at the Iowa Bankers association meeting. They have an egg. They have an Ag bankers meeting. It was really fun. It was good. A good, good group. Good group. A lot of concern about profitability in farm country. I would say that that's an understatement. So ran into farm management legend David Cole. Dr. David Cole. He's still going like, he, he is amazing to me. I was on the treadmill walking, you know, like a 4, 4 clip. Like, you know, I'm trying to get a little bit of a sweat on my pace. He's on the elliptical just giving her man. Like he, he is like.
Is this where you have your meetings now? I do the hotel workout. Okay.
Epic disappointment that the sauna was closed at the, the hotel. That's very important.
Are you well, for everybody listening, I mean, Shaun, you've been on a, I don't know, three month, four month tear across everywhere. Yeah. Are you almost done?
I'm in Saskatoon. I'm just outside of Saskatoon. Next week I'm flying into Saskatoon on Monday and I've got a meeting outside of Saskatoon. So that. That's kind of the end.
Kind of.
I think that's. I have one. I've got to speak to some Minnesota egg bankers in the end of April. And then the Wyoming Egg bank. And then I think that's kind of like. That's.
Oh, that's not bad.
That's why we're. We launched the contest recently about who can find the event. The most remote event for Shaun to attend to. So do encourage people to send those in so that we can find Shaun. Where you should go next?
Manning. Was going to win Manning, Alberta. But I never even made it there this week because I was trapped in the Calgary airport.
Okay. So for everybody in Calgary. I cannot believe. Essentially half the city was completely shut down, including the airport. And then just like a little ways out of the way. No snow.
No snow at all.
Dry.
Like not just like a little bit.
Closed.
Closed, yeah. Three hours. The whole airport's grounded.
Yeah.
Okay. So we talked about. Tyler, you want to mention the World Food Prize and this award.
Yes.
What's going on here?
Yes. So this is. Goes back to. Was founded by Norman, Dr. Norman Borlaug, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for saving millions of lives by breeding short wheat, short diseases, wheat and rice. So he founded the World Food Prize. It was given out and the recipient this year. And I tell you, I practise his name and I'm gonna screw it up because he's a Dutch guy. It is Hube Lee Lee Feld. I think I probably got that wrong.
But actually I think 40 years.
40 years as a food engineer at Unilever and then after he was done that started global integration again. I'm gonna get the name of this freaked up again, but a harmonisation initiative which harmonised food standards to try and raise food standards. Food safety standards in poor countries make it easier to get product where it needed to go. One of the things that really got this started was there was a bunch of GMO corn in a port in. In. In Africa that got caught up in an approval issue because it was GM corn and the kind of the product, it wasn't getting to the people that. That really desperately needed it. So his organisation did a lot of really good work to try and make it easier to move food around the world. And so he was recognised with the World Food Prize. This is just a really good example. I think that on so many issues today there's kind of two choices. Do we use science and technology and trade to solve problems like hunger and sustainability around the world or do we use kind of some back to basics approach that I don't think is going to work? The World Food Prize really celebrates the people that are doing the great innovative ways that are finding new solutions to solve real problems around the world. And so congratulations to him and a big shout out to the World Food Prize based in Des Moines, Iowa. My one and only time in Des Moines was to their prize ceremony many years ago. Really enjoyed it there and really enjoy and celebrate the work that the World Food Prize does.
Yeah, I was, I was by the Des Moines. I was right by the building this week.
Drove right by.
I liked more. It's cute, it's cute, it's cute. I like Des Moines is cute. So shout out to Des Moines. But yes, the, the World Food Prize it is, it's half a million dollars.
Like it's.
It's a significant prize.
So yeah, big deal.
And again these are people that are doing the hard work, making a real difference and, and doing it in a way again that I think celebrates modern agriculture science, the role that it can play. These are people that are innovators. Again this is an engineer that worked on global food standards. Global harmonisation may not be a very popular thing to do these days and kind of this geopolitical climate that we're in but boy making trade easier is good for farmers. Good for people that need the food too actually. Good segue to we have a WQO
min what's happening in Cameroon. Yeah, exactly.
WTO ministerial this week too. As much as that doesn't matter. But I think the interesting thing there is that TPP and EU members are trade ministers are meeting on the side as a way to try and bring the TPPP and the EU a lot of bit closer together. That is kind of this middle powers in action and hopefully there's some progress made.
I actually think this meeting does matter more Tyler, because the US is showing signs of caring about the WTO and not wanting to blow it up. USTR issued their report this week. Jameson Greer is at the meeting. He's more engaged than they've been on this in a while, it looks like me.
So curious why.
Well, I think they still see some value in the WTO if it's. If it changes and adapts to what the US would like to see. And that's where. If the other countries. And I think there's also willingness from the other countries realising this is we got to actually go back to ground zero here, start over again and come up with A framework here. But that's. I think there is some. It feels like there's a little bit of life actually in or things have gotten so desperate, so low in terms of the WTO's functionality that now they're like, like maybe there is something we could dig out of the ashes here.
Sort of like Tyler was a square dancing people like he.
No, we're not in the ashes. You just wait. You. You wait. We'll wait till we hopefully sweep the competition.
I think you will. I have no doubt about that.
I don't know. I don't know. I think we've got a better chance of square dancing than the global trading system does. And having something kind of good come out out of the Cameroon ministerial.
It just feels like there's a little bit more engagement from the US than there has been in terms of trying to be constructive on this. And the rest of the world is also, I think ready for that. And so maybe it won't come out of Cameroon over these next couple days. But it seems like things are maybe have reached a point where they could start looking at rebuilding something.
And I do wonder how much pressure kind of what the eu, TPP countries, other kind of regional trade blocs are doing does put back on. Man. But we actually need a swto so we've got a more common level playing field. If the rest of the world or the rest of the major middle powers do get to some trade agreement that the United States is outside of, that does create some interesting dynamics that may remind the Americans how much better it is when they're actually inside the tent on these things.
One thing that's interesting is that this is a perception I have is that. But the Canadian media has done a very good job of convincing people there's like the very high likelihood there's no Kuzma agreement going forward. I get that perception.
I agree. Yeah.
Yeah. And I disagree with it.
But yeah, I can't imagine with all of the turmoil that US businesses are facing today that they'd be in a big rush to say the USMCA go.
Yeah. And I.
We've talked about this. Even just the, the procedure that needs to go and needs to happen for the US to withdraw from it involving Congress. It's. It's much more complicated than Trump just posting something on true social 100%.
And, and it is like it's either a 60 day we're gone or it's a like, like 16 year process. Right. And that 60 day we're gone again, if it happened, would just Be pretty devastating. Right. Like, it's hard to see how that, how anybody would support that outside of, again, a very few radical people that are, that are there. Yeah.
In a midterm year. Like, I just don't, I just don't see it. I don't, I don't just. It does not line up with a lot of the variables that are out there. So I'm kind of in that, in that camp. Do you know it would require congressional approval and support. And Congress doesn't agree on anything. Like, realistically, they agree on nothing. So this is like a, in comparison, if you look at what's going on with the TSA right now and that funding. And there's potentially a solution today that has been approved by the Senate. But for the most part, we're talking little things. Farm bill is an example, traditionally a very bipartisan effort. Even a skinny version is just really running up against a lot of challenges, and it's doubtful that it can even happen again here in 2000. So what would make people believe that Congress would get their heads wrapped around it's better without a usmca? I just don't see that path at all.
And never mind that in the meantime, the president's going to go to China in May and apparently make some deal like it. It is a bit kind of hard to wrap your head around the fact that you rip up the North American Trade Agreement at the same time. Right. Upsetting agreements with China. I don't think that, that I don't understand the logic. But if you go back to, again, what ustr, what James and Greer said, what they heard in the hearings that they had, like, nobody in the US Seems to want the USMCA ripped up. I, I maybe am missing this, but I'm not hearing anybody outside of the administration say that that should be even considered as an option.
But, and even the administration itself isn't really necessarily saying that either. It's. This is just like a sort of a blob of discussion that continues to have, have life, I think. I don't know. Obviously, there's lots of time and there's gonna be, there's gonna be some rough patches, don't get me wrong. Like, there's going to be a full test here of, to use a gorilla monsoon term, the intestinal fortitude to continue. Lindsey, that was wrestling reference. If you didn't.
Okay, thanks. Yeah, I got, I just wrote it down. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Anyway. No, well, and so, and I know we're going to go here, but yeah, I would agree that realistically it doesn't mean it's going to be all smooth sailing. But I think that again to. This is a review and a renewal. It is not a resigning or renegotiation. It's a review and renewal. That review is going to bring up a few points that have to be hammered out. But I think large scale and politically and, and you know, all those involved want to see this move forward and I think we will. It doesn't mean it's going to be elsewhere sailing for sure.
There's going to be some reading, there's going to be some changes made.
Yeah, exactly. To that point. Like it is a review. Which means there are still sticking points. The US has been clear on what they are and there will need to be some agreement on how we move forward with those. For sure.
Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well, you know what, Kelvin, I want your final. How. What kind of Blue Jay season can we predict can we expect here?
I am going playoffs and I hope that we. Well, I think Jays make the playoffs. We'll go there.
Okay. Jays make that. Hey, that. You know what, baseball is one of the hardest sports to actually make the playoffs. So that's a good season. Do you think we'll say Bohu or do you think we'll be like boohoo? We don't have Bo.
The former. We're gonna see Yemen as dominate defensively at shortstop this year. Put up best defensive numbers ever seen by a Blue Jays shortstop.
Wow.
Struggle at the plate. But he'll, he's gonna have a great impact. And then. And Bo, I think the Mets fans are gonna tyre of him and it's, it's not gonna, it's not gonna be a pretty picture there either.
Okay. You heard it there, Lindsay. Yep.
I'm taking that to the bank. Okay. For what it's worth. But Kelvin said.
Yeah, well, hey, we gotta run everybody. Really appreciate everybody tuning in, providing your perspectives. Continue to tell your friends, your neighbours, your farming peers all about the RealAg Radio podcast. Whether you listen on Real Radio 147 or not. It's really cool that you also download the podcast so you can hear some of these bonus segments and sometime extended interviews inside of the show like we did this week a couple of times. So really do appreciate you making the podcast one of your places to grab RealAg Radio. If you do have any feedback, send me an email. Shaneeyealagriculture.com maybe you've got some thoughts on how Kearney is performing from an agricultural perspective. The poll may be over, but your thoughts still count. Want to hear from you. You can also call or text the Real Life, feedback line 855-77-666-7447. And don't forget to cheque out RealAg on the weekend. We're having a farm economics discussion this weekend on the show. Kelvin's going to be definitely tuning in for that. Thanks everybody. Have a great weekend.
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