Where Are the Jobs? Winners and Losers by Industry

The job creation machine is running backwards in some industries and forward in others. By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. Structural changes spread across the US economy over time. AI is the big disruptor now, after the internet and the computerization-of-everything shook up the economy for decades. Automation-of-everything has been a force, now more so than ever. And some of those changes show up in shifts of employment. The jobs in each industry are defined by work location. The primary activity at that facility determines the industry category. A worker at an Amazon fulfillment center would be under “transportation and warehousing,” not “retail” and not “information.” It’s not the company that matters, but the work being done at that specific location. The data through August was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, based on its survey of employers. Our discussion of the overall employment data is here. Employment in construction spans all types, from single-family housing and highways to power plants and AI data centers, now spouting like mushrooms. Construction of housing has run into a sharp decline of demand for single-family homes and overbuilding of multi-family units (apartments and condos) during the pandemic that are now flooding the market. The office sector has been in a depression. But construction in other sectors has been strong, and construction of data centers, factories, and power plants has been booming amid complaints of shortages of skilled labor. - Total employment: 8.36 million - Month-to-month: +22,000 - 3-month growth: +43,000 - 12-month growth: +120,000 Manufacturing in the US is powered by automation. All manufacturers have been investing huge amounts of money in automation to reduce the costs and issues associated with human labor in the US. The manufacturing jobs that are left today tend to require high skills, often degrees, and include tech jobs. Manufacturing production has been in expansion mode, and automation has been driving it – not employment of humans. Nevertheless, this year, more human labor has been getting put to work. - Total employment: 12.6 million - Month-to-month: +16,000 - 3-month growth: +43,000 - 12-month growth: +23,000 Professional and business services is a broad category that includes facilities whose employees work primarily in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services; Management of Companies and Enterprises; Administrative and Support, and Waste Management and Remediation Services. It includes jobs in tech and social media. And it includes government contractors that lost their contracts with the federal government in 2025. The increasing use of AI has been held responsible for some job losses in this industry, but it has also been held responsible for quite a bit of hiring as companies are trying to deal with it and benefit from it. The explosion of employment in 2021 and 2022 turned out to be widely acknowledged over-hiring that companies then unwound. The low point was in October 2024. - Total employment: 22.5 million - Month-to-month: +10,000 - 3-month growth: +62,000 - 12-month growth: +152,000 “Information” is a small category that includes facilities where people primarily work on web search portals, data processing, data transmission, information services, software publishing, motion picture and sound recording, broadcasting including over the Internet, and telecommunications. AI has had a profound impact in many of these activities for several years and is doing some real damage to human labor, including in the video and motion-picture industry, and in software publishing, where AI has taken over a lot of skilled human labor. The tech and social media companies in that segment also had the issue of over-hiring during the pandemic, and they have admitted it, and they have reversed course. Employment in this industry has fallen to the lowest level since 2015. - Total employment: 2.7 million - Month-to-month: -23,000 - 3-month growth: -37,000 - 12-month growth: -115,000 Healthcare and social assistance: - Total employment: 23.9 million - Month-to-month: +28,000 - 3-month growth: +80,000 - 12-month growth: 546,000 Leisure and hospitality includes restaurants, bars, lodging, resorts, casinos, etc. In August, employment jumped, after two months in a row of steep declines that followed big increases. Some of this may be related to the World Cup and its aftermath. - Total employment: 17.0 million - Month-to-month: +62,000 - 3-month growth: -13,000 - 12-month growth: 131,000 Retail trade includes workers at brick-and-mortar retail stores, such as malls, auto dealers, grocery stores, gas stations, etc., and other retail locations such as markets. It does not include the tech-related jobs of ecommerce operations, drivers, and warehouse employees. A big portion of this sector has been under pressure from ecommerce. Dozens of major retailers have been liquidated in bankruptcy court, some of which we’ve documented since 2016 in our Brick-and-Mortar Meltdown series. Innumerable malls have turned into zombie malls. Many of them were bulldozed and redeveloped into housing. The long-term decline in employment began in 2017. The brick-and-mortar retailers that are still doing well are those that are selling groceries, motor vehicles, gasoline, and cannabis products. Nevertheless, so far this year, brick-and-mortar retailers added jobs. - Total employment: 14.5 million - Month-to-month: +1,400 - 3-month growth: +24,200 - 12-month growth: 47,900. Financial activities include finance and insurance plus real estate renting, leasing, buying, selling, and management. The damage here is largely in real estate related activities, including real estate brokering and mortgage lending, amid a massive four-year-long downturn in home sales, a plunge in purchase-mortgage originations, a collapse in refinance-mortgage originations, and a depression in the office sector and some other parts of commercial real estate. - Total employment: 9.1 million - Month-to-month: -11,400 - 3-month growth: -20,200 - 12-month growth: -99,000. Transportation and Warehousing: - Total employment: 6.6 million - Month-to-month: +5,000 - 3-month growth: +8,500 - 12-month growth: -51,500. Wholesale Trade: - Total employment: 6.1 million - Month-to-month: +7,800 - 3-month growth: +17,700 - 12-month growth: +29,100. “Other services” include equipment and machinery repairing; promoting or administering religious activities; grantmaking; advocacy; dry-cleaning and laundry services; personal care services; death care services; pet care services; temporary parking services; and dating services. - Total employment: 6.0 million - Month-to-month: +3,000 - 3-month growth: +4,000 - 12-month growth: +27,000. Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation: - Total employment: 2.6 million - Month-to-month: -6,300 - 3-month growth: -42,900 - 12-month growth: -53,800. Utilities – big in economic impact but small in employment – have seen a hiring boom since the AI infrastructure buildout started to demand limitless electrical power anywhere and everywhere. That hiring boom, which comes after years of declining employment, added 13% to their headcount in six years, taking employment at utilities from 541,000 in the summer of 2020 to 612,000 currently. - Total employment: 612,000 - Month-to-month: +2,500 - 3-month growth: +4,100 - 12-month growth: +10,300. Government jobs. The federal government has shed 336,000 jobs, or 11% of its payrolls since January 2025. Government payrolls don’t include workers at government contractors. They’re in private-sector categories, such as in “Professional and business services,” where declines cropped up as well in 2025. State governments have shed 55,000 employees since January 2025. Local governments have added 157,000 jobs over the same period. For all governments combined, their payrolls amount to a share of 14.7% of total nonfarm payrolls in August 2026, compared to a share of 15.4% in August 2016 and compared to a share of 16.1% in August 2006. Civilian employment at the federal government fell to a record low share of 1.7% of total employment, the lowest in the data going back to 1939. - Total employment: 2.67 million. - Month-to-month: -5,000 - 3-month growth: -11,000 - 12-month growth: -242,000 - Since January 2025: -336,000 or -11.2%. State governments have also cut headcount, mostly in higher education due to slowing enrollment in universities and colleges. - Total employment: 5.47 million. - Month-to-month: -10,000 - 3-month growth: +3,000 - 12-month growth: -17,000 - Since January 2025: -55,000. Local governments added to their headcount. The sharp ups and downs over the past three months netted out almost entirely and were likely due to quirks in the seasonal adjustments over the summer months. Most of the local government jobs are in education across all grade levels, from preschool to community colleges and trade schools; in healthcare; and in law enforcement and first-responders. - Total employment: 15.2 million. - Month-to-month: +50,000 - 3-month growth: -2,000 - 12-month growth: +47,000 - Since January 2025: +157,000. In case you missed it: Turns Out, the Labor Market is OK Despite All Moaning & Groaning about the Economy or Whatever Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how: As a Digital and eCommerce Marketing Manager “Information Technology”, AI can make changes in seconds that used to take a Web Developer a project to get done. It’s the future with a good approval process. Learn to leverage it or get left behind. Excellent piece. I am thinking there are hundreds of PhD candidate writing their thesis about this very topic. You beat them to the punch. AI, assuming the congress doesn’t screw it up, will be a game changer like the steam engine, railroads, electrification… Since I expect some more AI hoopla on this thread – the hype has normalized – the main use cases are out – here comes the hard part. Innovation through iteration. Listen to some expert voices that do not stand to gain financially from the mania. Cal Newport is one to understand the technical side – and look at the adoption number for Big Tech – majority of the code is AI driven – and yet materially not a single google, apple or ms product has improved the lives of their customers significantly. The advances in robotics in conjunction with AI are likely to be a larger differentiator than the white collar profession across the board. It’ll just slowly creep in where it makes sense and directly target a small percentage of the services / professional labor force once everything is said and done. If your thinking is equivalent of learn to surf the internet or get left behind – that has always been true. Learn to use a can opener or no ready mushy beans for you – is just as true. Big drop in Federal gov jobs while everything else is strong. Hypothesis: drop in Frderal jobs strengthens all other sectors. Show supporting and contrary evidence. I just realized they made a Batman vs Superman movie back in 2016. I had no idea. Kind of similar to what people know AI will do, They have no idea. The ‘Healthcare and Social Assistance’ sector seems to be the largest growth driver overall, especially considering society’s aging demographic. I completely hesitate to ever criticize Wolf’s fine work, but I was surprised he had no commentary about this sector?