Airstrikes on Civilians in Rakhine Will Increase, Say Myanmar Military Defectors

Defectors from the Myanmar military told The Diplomat that the regime will intensify its airstrikes on the civilian population in the country’s Rakhine State. In an interview in Myanmar’s Arakan region on February 25 this year, two military defectors – Major Myint Zaw Than and Sergeant Kyaw Han Toe – told this correspondent that the military will increase its air raids in the Arakan region. “There will be more airstrikes on the civilians in Arakan in the coming months because the military has to defend the three townships [Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and Manaung] still under its control,” Myint Zaw Than said. Despite this, Kyaw Han Toe predicted that the military would eventually be defeated by the Arakan Army (AA) and will lose control of the three townships. Of all the ethnic armed organizations operating in Myanmar, the AA has wrested control of the largest expanse of territory. The defectors identified the “support of the people” for the AA as the outfit’s biggest strength, which has enabled it to stage a series of spectacular victories against the military over the past decade. An annual report issued by the United Nations Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) that covers the period from July 2025 to June 2026 also pointed to a marked escalation in aerial attacks across the country in the months preceding the elections. Aerial attacks have continued unabated since the elections as well. The IIMM report pointed out the Myanmar military was increasingly using motorized paragliders, gyrocopters, and drones to carry out low-altitude airstrikes with unguided explosives. An estimated 228 civilian casualties, including 89 deaths and 139 injuries, have been reported as a result of airstrikes in Rakhine State from January 1 to August 13 this year. On the resistance movement in other regions of Myanmar, Kyaw Han Toe said that “the resistance groups will emerge victorious if they are able to work together.” If they do, “the junta will collapse within three years,” he said. About the recent success of the military in regaining territories from the resistance groups, he said that lack of coordination among the groups has been a fundamental drawback that has contributed to the military’s success in some zones. This, he added, stands in sharp contrast to the situation in Arakan, where “there is only one organization [opposed to the military] and so only one chain of command.” The two military defectors clarified that they had received salaries and health care regularly when they were in service, as did other personnel in the military. Echoing accusations made previously by other defectors and some functionaries of resistance groups, Myint Zaw Than alleged that a small section of military personnel is involved in drug trafficking.