The market for human smuggling: Structure, mechanisms, and paradoxes

The market for human smuggling: Structure, mechanisms, and paradoxes Edited by Jonathan P. Caulkins, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA; received May 7, 2025; accepted October 3, 2025 by Editorial Board Member Christopher B. Barrett Abstract Human smuggling is the facilitation of unlawful cross-border movement. It is primarily a commercial activity, offered as a service to willing, paying customers, and a large-scale market catering to millions seeking to circumvent mobility restrictions. Contrary to prevailing media and political narratives that depict smuggling as dominated by powerful and highly sophisticated criminal organizations, this study documents a fragmented, decentralized market composed of independent, localized actors operating through flexible, often temporary networks. These flexible arrangements, coupled with low barriers to entry, confer resilience and adaptability to the market, making enforcement difficult and resource-intensive. Intensified enforcement often produces unintended consequences, including heightened migrant vulnerability and increased reliance on smugglers. Despite regional differences, smuggling operations exhibit striking structural similarities shaped by local knowledge and monitoring costs. Such enduring structural characteristics exist alongside a growing role played by communication technologies, which are reshaping dynamics between service providers and customers. Ultimately, human smuggling remains a market fraught with paradoxes: Migrants face severe risks yet view smugglers as essential facilitators, while states confront the complex task of balancing border enforcement with humanitarian obligations and protections of vulnerable individuals. Data, Materials, and Software Availability There are no data underlying this work. Acknowledgments I am most grateful to Jonathan Caulkins, Peter Reuter, and Beau Kilmer for their sharp insights and very helpful suggestions on improving earlier drafts and to two anonymous reviewers for their detailed and constructive comments. I also thank Gabriella Sanchez, Samantha Perez Davila, and Luigi Achilli for kindly directing me to relevant materials. Participants in the Illegal Markets Conference (RAND Santa Monica, February 7-8, 2025) offered helpful comments. Author contributions P.C. designed research; performed research; analyzed data; and wrote the paper. Competing interests The author declares no competing interest. References 1 UNTOC, “Protocol against the smuggling of migrants by land, sea, and air, supplementing the United Nations Convention against transnational organized crime” in General Assembly resolution 55/25, Annex III (United Nations, New York, 2000a). 2 UNTOC, “Protocol to prevent, suppress and punish trafficking in persons especially women and children, supplementing the United Nations Convention against transnational organized crime” in General Assembly Resolution 55/25, Annex II (United Nations, New York, 2000b). 3 E. Lee, Enforcing the borders: Chinese exclusion along the US borders with Canada and Mexico, 1882–1924. J. Am. Hist. 89, 54–86 (2002). 4 United Nations Office on drugs and crime (UNODC), “Global study on smuggling of migrants” (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, 2018). 5 M. McAuliffe, F. Laczko, “Report overview” in Migrant Smuggling Data and Research: A Global Review of the Emerging Evidence Base, M. McAuliffe, F. Laczko, Eds. (International Organization for Migration, Geneva, 2016), pp. 1–24. 6 CRS, Congressional research unit. U.S. border patrol encounters at the southwest border. Fact sheet. R47556, May 16 (2023). 7 UNODC, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “The Migrant Smuggling Market on the Central Mediterranean” (UNODC Observatory on Smuggling of Migrants, Vienna, 2024), Update #2, October. 8 MMC, Mixed Migration Centre, “Financing of human smuggling in West and North Africa” (MMC West Africa and North Africa 4Mi Snapshot, 2024b), March 2022. 9 DHS, “Border security metrics report” (Department of Homeland Security, Washington, 2020). 10 Frontex, “Risk analysis for 2019” (European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Warsaw, 2019). 11 MMC, Mixed Migration Centre, 4Mi: Frequently asked questions. (2024a), https://mixedmigration.org/4mi/. 12 L. Cawley, G. Portal, Essex lorry deaths: The supposed ‘VIP’ journey that killed 39 people. BBC News, 21 December 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-54294006. 13 B. Quinn, People-smuggling trial hears from man who took earlier journey to UK. The Guardian, 22 October 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/22/people-smuggling-trial-hears-from-man-who-took-earlier-journey-vietnamese-container-39-people-died. 14 Myria, “Annual report trafficking and smuggling of human beings” (Federal Migration Centre, Brussels, 2022). 15 J.-L. Manand, De Bierne à l’Essex, l’embarquement pour l’enfer de 39 migrants vietnamiens à bord du “camion charnier” (FranceInfo, 2020), 21 December. 16 S. P. Izcara Palacios, Evolución y funcionamiento de las redes de tráfico de personas en México. Polít. Cult. 59, 105–132 (2023). 17 G. E. Sanchez, Human Smuggling and Border Crossing (Routledge, Abingdon, New York, 2015). 18 G. E. Sanchez, “Mexico” in Migrant Smuggling Data and Research: A Global Review of the Emerging Evidence Base, Volume 2, A. Triandafyllidou, M. L. McAuliffe, Eds. (IOM, Geneva, 2016), pp. 143–166. 19 U. D. Berg, L. P. Martínez, “The Legality of (Im) mobility: Migration, coyoterismo, and indigenous justice in Southern Ecuador” in Migration in South America, G. Herrera, C. Gómez, Eds. (Springer International Publishing, Cham, 2022), pp. 145–166. 20 Y. Guevara González, Navigating with coyotes: Pathways of central American migrants in Mexico’s southern borders. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 174–193 (2018). 21 K-l. Chin, Smuggled Chinese: Clandestine Immigration to the United States (Temple University Press, Philadelphia, 1999). 22 S. X. Zhang, K.-L. Chin, Enter the dragon: Inside Chinese human smuggling organisations. Criminology 40, 737–768 (2002). 23 P. Campana, Out of Africa: The organization of migrant smuggling across the Mediterranean. Eur. J. Criminol. 15, 481–502 (2018). 24 T. Ayalew Mengiste, Refugee protections from below: Smuggling in the Eritrea-Ethiopia context. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 57–76 (2018). 25 J. Brachet, Manufacturing smugglers: From irregular to clandestine mobility in Sahara. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 16–35 (2018). 26 A. Içduygu, S. Toktas, How do smuggling and trafficking operate via irregular border crossings in the Middle East? Evidence from fieldwork in Turkey. Int. Migr. 40, 25–54 (2002). 27 K. Koser, Why migrant smuggling pays. Int. Migr. 46, 3–26 (2008). 28 D. B. Aksel et al., “Study on smuggling of migrants. Case study 3: Pakistan–Turkey–Greece” (European Commission, Brussels, 2015). 29 O. O. Demir, S. Murat, K. Yavuz, The social organisation of migrant smugglers in Turkey: Roles and functions. Eur. J. Crim. Policy Res. 23, 371–391 (2017). 30 L. Achilli, The ‘good’ smuggler: The ethics and morals of human smuggling among Syrians. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 77–96 (2018). 31 P. Reuter, The Organization of Illegal Markets: An Economic Analysis (National Institute for Justice, Washington, 1985). 32 P. Campana, The structure of human trafficking: Lifting the bonnet on a Nigerian transnational network. Br. J. Criminol. 56, 68–86 (2016). 33 GI-TOC, Small Boat, Big Business (Global Initiative Against Organised Crime, Geneva, 2024). 34 T. Schelling, What is the business of organized crime. J. Public Law 20, 71–84 (1971). 35 P. Reuter, Disorganised Crime: The Economics of the Visible Hand (MIT Press, Cambridge, 1983). 36 P. Campana, F. Varese, Organized crime in the United Kingdom: Illegal governance of markets and communities. Br. J. Criminol. 58, 1381–1400 (2018). 37 Altai Consulting, Leaving Libya. Rapid Assessment of Municipalities of Departures of Migrants in Libya (Embassy of the Netherlands to Libya, Tripoli, 2017). 38 UNODC, “Smuggling of migrants in the Sahel” (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, 2022). 39 P. Asmann, H. Shuldiner, El crimen organizado se beneficia del auge migratorio en Latinoamérica. Insighcrime.org, 26 December 2024. 40 J. Brachet, “From one stage to the next: Transit and transport in (trans) Saharan migrations” in African Migrations Research: Innovative Methods and Methodologies, M. Berriane, H. de Haas, Eds. (AfricaWorld, Trenton, NJ, 2012), pp. 91–114. 41 E. G. Sanchez, S. X. Zhang, Rumors, encounters, collaborations, and survival: The migrant smuggling-drug trafficking nexus in the U.S. Southwest. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 135–151 (2018). 42 P. J. Lechleitner, “Statement before the U.S. House of Representatives House Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Border Security” (US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Washington, DC, 2021), June 10. 43 A. Frank-Vitale, Coyotes, caravans, and the Central American migrant smuggling continuum. Trends Organ. Crime 26, 64–79 (2023). 44 A. Loroña Celaya, G. Sanchez, “Una visión fronteriza sobre la interacción entre el tráfico de migrantes y el tráfico de drogas: El caso del Valle de Altar” in Reimagining the Migration Protection System: Critical Reflections from the Border, G. Sanchez, Ed. (Hope Border Institute and Temple University, 2024), pp. 20–27. 45 A. İçduygu, Decentring migrant smuggling: Reflections on the Eastern Mediterranean route to Europe. J. Ethn. Migr. Stud. 47, 3293–3309 (2021). 46 D. Gambetta, Codes of the Underworld: How Criminals Communicate (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009). 47 D. S. Massey, J. Durand, K. A. Pren, Why border enforcement backfired. Am. J. Sociol. 121, 1557–1600 (2016). 48 G. A. Akerlof, The market for ‘lemons’: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Q. J. Econ. 84, 488–500 (1970). 49 Optimity Advisors, “A study on smuggling of migrants” (European Commission, Brussels, 2015). 50 V. Bilger, M. Hofmann, M. Jandl, Human smuggling as a transnational service industry: Evidence from Austria. Int. Migr. 44, 59–93 (2006). 51 D. Spener, Clandestine Crossings: Migrants and Coyotes on the Texas-Mexico Border (Cornell University Press, 2009). 52 Z. Roberts, Information exchange between smugglers and migrants: An analysis of online interactions in Facebook groups (Criminal Justice, Borders and Citizenship Research Paper No. 3051186, 2017). 53 P. Campana, L. Gelsthorpe, Choosing a smuggler: Decision-making amongst migrants smuggled to Europe. Eur. J. Crim. Policy Res. 27, 5–21 (2021). 54 F. Düvell, The ‘great Migration’ of summer 2015: Analysing the assemblage of key drivers in Turkey. J. Ethn. Migr. Stud. 45, 2227–2240 (2018). 55 S. Álvarez Velasco, “Ecuador” in Migrant Smuggling Data and Research: A Global Review of the Emerging Evidence Base, A. Triandafyllidou, M. McAuliffe, Eds. (IOM, Geneva, 2018). vol. 2. 56 N. Majidi, Community dimensions of smuggling: The case of Afghanistan and Somalia. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 97–113 (2018). 57 V. Stone-Cadena, S. Álvarez Velasco, Historicizing mobility: Coyoterismo in the indigenous Ecuadorian migration industry. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 194–211 (2018). 58 C. Hernández Campos, E. Torre Cantalapiedra, How can Mexican migrants reduce the risk of being abandoned by smugglers while clandestinely crossing the US–Mexico border? Migr. Stud. 10, 746–765 (2022). 59 A. Harding, K. Luu, P. Clahane, Smuggler selling ‘fast track’ Channel crossing speaks to BBC undercover reporter. BBC News. 28 October 2024a. 60 T. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1960). 61 P. Campana, F. Varese, Cooperation in criminal organizations: Kinship and violence as credible commitments. Rational. Soc. 25, 263–289 (2013). 62 J. Slack, E. D. Martínez, What makes a good human smuggler? The difference between satisfaction with and recommendation of coyotes on the U.S.-Mexico border. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 152–173 (2018). 63 B. Roberts, G. Hanson, D. Cornwell, S. Borger, “An analysis of migrant smuggling costs along the Southwest border” (US Office for Immigration Statistics, Washington, DC, 2010). 64 A. Fuentes, D. Garcia, “Coyotaje: The structure and functioning of the people-smuggling industry” in Four Generations of Norteños: New Research from the Cradle of Mexican Migration, W. A. Cornelius, D. Fitzgerald, S. Borger, Eds. (Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 2009), pp. 79–102. 65 D. Taylor, Channel smugglers drop prices and cram more people on to boats. The Guardian, 6 August 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats. 66 S. X. Zhang, G. E. Sanchez, L. Achilli, Crimes of solidarity in mobility: Alternative views on migrant smuggling. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 6–15 (2018). 67 USSC, United States Sentencing Commission, “Alien smuggling offences. Quick facts” (2025). https://www.ussc.gov/research/quick-facts/alien-smuggling. 68 Migration Observatory, “People crossing the English Channel in small boats” (Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2024), Policy Brief, 28 Jun 2024. 69 NCA, NCA leads major increase in takedowns of social media accounts linked to people smuggling (National Crime Agency, London, 2025). 70 IOM, “International Migration Law No. 34–Glossary on migration” (Internation Organisation for Migration, Geneva, 2019). 71 A. Harding, K. Luu, P. Clahane, Smuggler reveals operation to help Vietnamese reach UK. BBC News, 28 October 2024b. Information & Authors Information Published in Classifications Copyright Copyright © 2026 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). Data, Materials, and Software Availability There are no data underlying this work. Submission history Published online: August 10, 2026 Published in issue: August 18, 2026 Keywords Acknowledgments I am most grateful to Jonathan Caulkins, Peter Reuter, and Beau Kilmer for their sharp insights and very helpful suggestions on improving earlier drafts and to two anonymous reviewers for their detailed and constructive comments. I also thank Gabriella Sanchez, Samantha Perez Davila, and Luigi Achilli for kindly directing me to relevant materials. Participants in the Illegal Markets Conference (RAND Santa Monica, February 7-8, 2025) offered helpful comments. Author contributions P.C. designed research; performed research; analyzed data; and wrote the paper. Competing interests The author declares no competing interest. Notes This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. J.P.C. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board. PNAS policy is to publish maps as provided by the authors. * Different definitions of the term “migrant” exist; however, if we consider a migrant any person who moves away from their place of residence as per IOM lay definition, then smugglers’ clients can only be international migrants (70). † Article 3, comma (a) of the UN Protocol defines “trafficking in persons” as “the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harbouring or receipt of persons, by means of the threat or use of force or other forms of coercion, of abduction, of fraud, of deception, of the abuse of power or of a position of vulnerability or of the giving or receiving of payments or benefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person, for the purpose of exploitation. Exploitation shall include, at a minimum, the exploitation of the prostitution of others or other forms of sexual exploitation, forced labour or services, slavery or practices similar to slavery, servitude or the removal of organs” (2). ‡ In this paper, the terms “human smuggling” and “migrant smuggling” are used interchangeably. § Data for the US Southern Border are from the CBP Public Data Portal, cpb.gov. ¶ This figure only includes “apprehensions” under Title 8 of U.S.C. 1226, this is the standard US immigration law governing detention, processing, and removal of migrants who enter or remain in the United States unlawfully. During the Covid pandemic, a public health measure (Title 42 U.S.C 265) was exceptionally invoked to immediately expel migrants at the border without processing them under immigration laws. A total of 2.9 million Title 42 expulsions were carried out from March 2020 to May 2023; it is possible that a part of those individuals used a smuggler to cross the border. # Data from Frontex, the European Coast Guard and Border Agency, publicly available at https://www.frontex.europa.eu. || Fees were estimated to be US$5,000 on average from Mexican migrants and US$7,000 for non-Mexicans ((4), p. 99). More recently, Chief Patrol Agent Aaron Heitke, San Diego Sector mentioned US$8,000 as the average fee in a testimony before the House Committee on Homeland Security. Transcript available at https://homeland.house.gov/2023/12/14/now-nobody-crosses-without-paying-senior-border-patrol-agents-describe-unprecedented-cartel-control-at-southwest-border. ** According to the Director of the French Office for the Fight against Illicit Trafficking of Migrants, interviewed by Infomigrant (https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/50834/inside-frances-battle-against-migrant-smugglers-a-closer-look). This is based on a price of between €2,500–€3,000 per person. †† See e.g., MMP 174 Database (the Mesoamerican Migration Project, formerly known as the Mexican Migration Project): https://mmp.research.brown.edu/mmp. ‡‡ 4Mi surveys migrants who have engaged in irregular migration during at least parts of their journeys. Data presented in this work are calculated based on migrants who have made their journey between 2019 and 2024. §§ This modus operandi is confirmed by another UK-based Vietnamese smuggler who, under the condition of anonymity, has explained to the BBC that his work consisted of forging the documentation to get legitimate work visas to Eastern European countries. Migrants would then continue on to Western Europe and the United Kingdom, although the smuggler interviewed did not provide any evidence of his involvement in the subsequent stages of the journey (71). Authors Metrics & Citations Metrics Altmetrics Citations Cite this article The market for human smuggling: Structure, mechanisms, and paradoxes, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 123 (33) e2511019122, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2511019122 (2026). Copied! Copying failed. Export the article citation data by selecting a format from the list below and clicking Export. Cited by Loading... View Options View options Download this article as a PDF file. PDFPDF and Supporting Information Download the article PDF and supporting information. Download PDF and supporting informationeReader View this article with eReader. eReaderFigures Tables Media References References References 1 UNTOC, “Protocol against the smuggling of migrants by land, sea, and air, supplementing the United Nations Convention against transnational organized crime” in General Assembly resolution 55/25, Annex III (United Nations, New York, 2000a). 2 UNTOC, “Protocol to prevent, suppress and punish trafficking in persons especially women and children, supplementing the United Nations Convention against transnational organized crime” in General Assembly Resolution 55/25, Annex II (United Nations, New York, 2000b). 3 E. Lee, Enforcing the borders: Chinese exclusion along the US borders with Canada and Mexico, 1882–1924. J. Am. Hist. 89, 54–86 (2002). 4 United Nations Office on drugs and crime (UNODC), “Global study on smuggling of migrants” (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, 2018). 5 M. McAuliffe, F. Laczko, “Report overview” in Migrant Smuggling Data and Research: A Global Review of the Emerging Evidence Base, M. McAuliffe, F. Laczko, Eds. (International Organization for Migration, Geneva, 2016), pp. 1–24. 6 CRS, Congressional research unit. U.S. border patrol encounters at the southwest border. Fact sheet. R47556, May 16 (2023). 7 UNODC, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “The Migrant Smuggling Market on the Central Mediterranean” (UNODC Observatory on Smuggling of Migrants, Vienna, 2024), Update #2, October. 8 MMC, Mixed Migration Centre, “Financing of human smuggling in West and North Africa” (MMC West Africa and North Africa 4Mi Snapshot, 2024b), March 2022. 9 DHS, “Border security metrics report” (Department of Homeland Security, Washington, 2020). 10 Frontex, “Risk analysis for 2019” (European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Warsaw, 2019). 11 MMC, Mixed Migration Centre, 4Mi: Frequently asked questions. (2024a), https://mixedmigration.org/4mi/. 12 L. Cawley, G. Portal, Essex lorry deaths: The supposed ‘VIP’ journey that killed 39 people. BBC News, 21 December 2020. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-54294006. 13 B. Quinn, People-smuggling trial hears from man who took earlier journey to UK. The Guardian, 22 October 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/22/people-smuggling-trial-hears-from-man-who-took-earlier-journey-vietnamese-container-39-people-died. 14 Myria, “Annual report trafficking and smuggling of human beings” (Federal Migration Centre, Brussels, 2022). 15 J.-L. Manand, De Bierne à l’Essex, l’embarquement pour l’enfer de 39 migrants vietnamiens à bord du “camion charnier” (FranceInfo, 2020), 21 December. 16 S. P. Izcara Palacios, Evolución y funcionamiento de las redes de tráfico de personas en México. Polít. Cult. 59, 105–132 (2023). 17 G. E. Sanchez, Human Smuggling and Border Crossing (Routledge, Abingdon, New York, 2015). 18 G. E. Sanchez, “Mexico” in Migrant Smuggling Data and Research: A Global Review of the Emerging Evidence Base, Volume 2, A. Triandafyllidou, M. L. McAuliffe, Eds. (IOM, Geneva, 2016), pp. 143–166. 19 U. D. Berg, L. P. Martínez, “The Legality of (Im) mobility: Migration, coyoterismo, and indigenous justice in Southern Ecuador” in Migration in South America, G. Herrera, C. Gómez, Eds. (Springer International Publishing, Cham, 2022), pp. 145–166. 20 Y. Guevara González, Navigating with coyotes: Pathways of central American migrants in Mexico’s southern borders. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 174–193 (2018). 21 K-l. Chin, Smuggled Chinese: Clandestine Immigration to the United States (Temple University Press, Philadelphia, 1999). 22 S. X. Zhang, K.-L. Chin, Enter the dragon: Inside Chinese human smuggling organisations. Criminology 40, 737–768 (2002). 23 P. Campana, Out of Africa: The organization of migrant smuggling across the Mediterranean. Eur. J. Criminol. 15, 481–502 (2018). 24 T. Ayalew Mengiste, Refugee protections from below: Smuggling in the Eritrea-Ethiopia context. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 57–76 (2018). 25 J. Brachet, Manufacturing smugglers: From irregular to clandestine mobility in Sahara. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 16–35 (2018). 26 A. Içduygu, S. Toktas, How do smuggling and trafficking operate via irregular border crossings in the Middle East? Evidence from fieldwork in Turkey. Int. Migr. 40, 25–54 (2002). 27 K. Koser, Why migrant smuggling pays. Int. Migr. 46, 3–26 (2008). 28 D. B. Aksel et al., “Study on smuggling of migrants. Case study 3: Pakistan–Turkey–Greece” (European Commission, Brussels, 2015). 29 O. O. Demir, S. Murat, K. Yavuz, The social organisation of migrant smugglers in Turkey: Roles and functions. Eur. J. Crim. Policy Res. 23, 371–391 (2017). 30 L. Achilli, The ‘good’ smuggler: The ethics and morals of human smuggling among Syrians. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 77–96 (2018). 31 P. Reuter, The Organization of Illegal Markets: An Economic Analysis (National Institute for Justice, Washington, 1985). 32 P. Campana, The structure of human trafficking: Lifting the bonnet on a Nigerian transnational network. Br. J. Criminol. 56, 68–86 (2016). 33 GI-TOC, Small Boat, Big Business (Global Initiative Against Organised Crime, Geneva, 2024). 34 T. Schelling, What is the business of organized crime. J. Public Law 20, 71–84 (1971). 35 P. Reuter, Disorganised Crime: The Economics of the Visible Hand (MIT Press, Cambridge, 1983). 36 P. Campana, F. Varese, Organized crime in the United Kingdom: Illegal governance of markets and communities. Br. J. Criminol. 58, 1381–1400 (2018). 37 Altai Consulting, Leaving Libya. Rapid Assessment of Municipalities of Departures of Migrants in Libya (Embassy of the Netherlands to Libya, Tripoli, 2017). 38 UNODC, “Smuggling of migrants in the Sahel” (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna, 2022). 39 P. Asmann, H. Shuldiner, El crimen organizado se beneficia del auge migratorio en Latinoamérica. Insighcrime.org, 26 December 2024. 40 J. Brachet, “From one stage to the next: Transit and transport in (trans) Saharan migrations” in African Migrations Research: Innovative Methods and Methodologies, M. Berriane, H. de Haas, Eds. (AfricaWorld, Trenton, NJ, 2012), pp. 91–114. 41 E. G. Sanchez, S. X. Zhang, Rumors, encounters, collaborations, and survival: The migrant smuggling-drug trafficking nexus in the U.S. Southwest. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 135–151 (2018). 42 P. J. Lechleitner, “Statement before the U.S. House of Representatives House Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Border Security” (US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Washington, DC, 2021), June 10. 43 A. Frank-Vitale, Coyotes, caravans, and the Central American migrant smuggling continuum. Trends Organ. Crime 26, 64–79 (2023). 44 A. Loroña Celaya, G. Sanchez, “Una visión fronteriza sobre la interacción entre el tráfico de migrantes y el tráfico de drogas: El caso del Valle de Altar” in Reimagining the Migration Protection System: Critical Reflections from the Border, G. Sanchez, Ed. (Hope Border Institute and Temple University, 2024), pp. 20–27. 45 A. İçduygu, Decentring migrant smuggling: Reflections on the Eastern Mediterranean route to Europe. J. Ethn. Migr. Stud. 47, 3293–3309 (2021). 46 D. Gambetta, Codes of the Underworld: How Criminals Communicate (Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009). 47 D. S. Massey, J. Durand, K. A. Pren, Why border enforcement backfired. Am. J. Sociol. 121, 1557–1600 (2016). 48 G. A. Akerlof, The market for ‘lemons’: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Q. J. Econ. 84, 488–500 (1970). 49 Optimity Advisors, “A study on smuggling of migrants” (European Commission, Brussels, 2015). 50 V. Bilger, M. Hofmann, M. Jandl, Human smuggling as a transnational service industry: Evidence from Austria. Int. Migr. 44, 59–93 (2006). 51 D. Spener, Clandestine Crossings: Migrants and Coyotes on the Texas-Mexico Border (Cornell University Press, 2009). 52 Z. Roberts, Information exchange between smugglers and migrants: An analysis of online interactions in Facebook groups (Criminal Justice, Borders and Citizenship Research Paper No. 3051186, 2017). 53 P. Campana, L. Gelsthorpe, Choosing a smuggler: Decision-making amongst migrants smuggled to Europe. Eur. J. Crim. Policy Res. 27, 5–21 (2021). 54 F. Düvell, The ‘great Migration’ of summer 2015: Analysing the assemblage of key drivers in Turkey. J. Ethn. Migr. Stud. 45, 2227–2240 (2018). 55 S. Álvarez Velasco, “Ecuador” in Migrant Smuggling Data and Research: A Global Review of the Emerging Evidence Base, A. Triandafyllidou, M. McAuliffe, Eds. (IOM, Geneva, 2018). vol. 2. 56 N. Majidi, Community dimensions of smuggling: The case of Afghanistan and Somalia. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 97–113 (2018). 57 V. Stone-Cadena, S. Álvarez Velasco, Historicizing mobility: Coyoterismo in the indigenous Ecuadorian migration industry. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 194–211 (2018). 58 C. Hernández Campos, E. Torre Cantalapiedra, How can Mexican migrants reduce the risk of being abandoned by smugglers while clandestinely crossing the US–Mexico border? Migr. Stud. 10, 746–765 (2022). 59 A. Harding, K. Luu, P. Clahane, Smuggler selling ‘fast track’ Channel crossing speaks to BBC undercover reporter. BBC News. 28 October 2024a. 60 T. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1960). 61 P. Campana, F. Varese, Cooperation in criminal organizations: Kinship and violence as credible commitments. Rational. Soc. 25, 263–289 (2013). 62 J. Slack, E. D. Martínez, What makes a good human smuggler? The difference between satisfaction with and recommendation of coyotes on the U.S.-Mexico border. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 152–173 (2018). 63 B. Roberts, G. Hanson, D. Cornwell, S. Borger, “An analysis of migrant smuggling costs along the Southwest border” (US Office for Immigration Statistics, Washington, DC, 2010). 64 A. Fuentes, D. Garcia, “Coyotaje: The structure and functioning of the people-smuggling industry” in Four Generations of Norteños: New Research from the Cradle of Mexican Migration, W. A. Cornelius, D. Fitzgerald, S. Borger, Eds. (Center for Comparative Immigration Studies, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 2009), pp. 79–102. 65 D. Taylor, Channel smugglers drop prices and cram more people on to boats. The Guardian, 6 August 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/aug/06/channel-smugglers-drop-prices-and-cram-more-people-on-to-boats. 66 S. X. Zhang, G. E. Sanchez, L. Achilli, Crimes of solidarity in mobility: Alternative views on migrant smuggling. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 676, 6–15 (2018). 67 USSC, United States Sentencing Commission, “Alien smuggling offences. Quick facts” (2025). https://www.ussc.gov/research/quick-facts/alien-smuggling. 68 Migration Observatory, “People crossing the English Channel in small boats” (Migration Observatory, University of Oxford, 2024), Policy Brief, 28 Jun 2024. 69 NCA, NCA leads major increase in takedowns of social media accounts linked to people smuggling (National Crime Agency, London, 2025). 70 IOM, “International Migration Law No. 34–Glossary on migration” (Internation Organisation for Migration, Geneva, 2019). 71 A. Harding, K. Luu, P. Clahane, Smuggler reveals operation to help Vietnamese reach UK. BBC News, 28 October 2024b.