Forecast: Netanyahu leading in Israeli elections

Forecast: Netanyahu Leading in Israel Election - But Without a Majority In the Israeli parliamentary election, Benjamin Netanyahu's camp has lost its majority according to forecasts, yet the head of government remains confident of victory. His right-conservative Likud party remains the strongest force in parliament, Netanyahu told supporters on Wednesday night. Behind him is the center party Yashar of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Even his camp, which also consists of several parties, failed to achieve a majority. Eisenkot called for Netanyahu's resignation, stating that his coalition "has lost the trust of the people." Netanyahu countered that the election showed that the right wing among the Jewish population has a clear majority. He insisted they must await the vote counting. Eisenkot would be dependent on the support of Arab parties to form a government, which gained significant momentum. They could either serve as coalition partners or tolerate a minority government. Mathematically speaking, the opposition could also form a government with the help of the Arab parties. However, not all factions in the opposition are ready for this. Netanyahu Calls for Government Without Arab Parties Netanyahu called for the formation of a strong right-leaning government. "We cannot form a government that relies on Arab, anti-Zionist parties," he said. Netanyahu accused the Arab parties of campaigning against the existence of Israel, calling the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas a charitable organization, and defaming Israeli soldiers as war criminals. At the same time, Netanyahu warned that the threat from Iran, the arch-enemy, has not yet been eliminated. "As long as the fanatic regime exists, they will continue to try to destroy us," he said. Israel must eliminate "this threat once and for all" with the United States. Since last year, Israel and the US have already waged two wars against Iran, the most recent of which began with their attacks in February. Speculation is rife as to whether a new war against the Islamic Republic should be expected soon. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing informed circles, that the US has urged several Arab Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense military operation after the US mid-term elections. These are scheduled for November 3rd. Will the Iran War Break Out Again? US President Donald Trump has not made a final decision but leans towards a large-scale attack after the midterm elections, the US newspaper reported citing sources familiar with his deliberations. A joint attack with allied Israel could target Iran's infrastructure and nuclear facilities. An alternative would be an attempt to reach an agreement with the leadership in Tehran. However, diplomatic efforts by regional mediators have thus far yielded no results. In Israel, after the polling stations closed, all three major national TV channels initially forecast that the opposition bloc would be ahead of Netanyahu's coalition. A few hours later, however, the picture changed dramatically: Netanyahu's camp steadily gained ground throughout the night. A stalemate was emerging. According to the television channel N12, after counting about ten percent of the votes, the Netanyahu camp stood at 52 out of 120 seats in the Knesset, thus three seats ahead of the Eisenkot camp. Netanyahu's coalition, which recently relied on far-right and ultra-religious parties, had received 64 seats in the last election at the end of 2022. Netanyahu has governed Israel with several interruptions since 1996; he has been prime minister for a third time since December 2022. Israel Could Face a New Permanent Crisis If government formation fails, Netanyahu could initially remain in office as the head of a transitional government. This would mean that Israel faces a permanent political crisis with constantly new parliamentary elections, as the country has experienced in the past. Between 2019 and 2022, Israelis were called to vote five times because no lasting majority could be found. Another political deadlock could paralyze the country for months. Furthermore, many conflicts in the region remain unresolved three years after the start of the Gaza War, and Israel faces major security challenges, particularly regarding its arch-enemy Iran. High Voter Turnout - Society Divided The parliamentary election mobilized Israeli voters more strongly than in a long time. According to the Central Election Commission, voter turnout was 77.7 percent, reaching the highest level since 1999. The high mobilization underscores the importance that many Israelis attach to the first parliamentary election since the devastating Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Gaza War. In the campaign, alongside the security situation, the future of Israeli democracy, the controversial judicial overhaul, the dispute over conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews, and Netanyahu's personal responsibility for the Hamas terror attack on October 7 played a crucial role. In all these issues, Israeli society is deeply divided; all of them have triggered ongoing mass protests. Tension During Vote Counting The votes of hundreds of thousands of Israeli soldiers and reservists will only be counted in rotation one day later, starting Wednesday. This voting group is attributed strong support from right-wing parties. Preliminary final results are expected on Thursday. The official results are set to be published eight days after the election. Afterwards, President Isaac (Yitzhak) Herzog will commission the candidate with the best chances of forming a government. He will initially have four weeks to forge a coalition. Difficult Government Formation Expected According to last Friday's polls, a neck-and-neck race is developing between Prime Minister Netanyahu and his political opponents. The most significant challenger is former military chief Eisenkot at the helm of the center party Yashar. It is likely that no bloc will reach the 61 votes required to form a government. Therefore, long and difficult coalition negotiations may follow. A stalemate is also not ruled out. In that case, Netanyahu might remain in office as the head of a transitional government until new elections are held. The far-right Minister of Police Itamar Ben-Gvir shared a report from the newspaper Israel Hayom on Election Day on the X platform stating that Netanyahu allegedly committed to the US government forming a unity government with Eisenkot after the election, but without him. US President Donald Trump had made two electoral recommendations for Netanyahu. Eisenkot Announces New Political Style if He Takes Over Government In the event of a change in government, Eisenkot announced a new political style: "A wind of change is blowing in Israel; this change will take place tonight at 10 PM." He wants to lead the country not through "division and panic-mongering, but through unity and true love." During this year's campaign, issues of security, democracy, and Netanyahu's personal responsibility for the October 7 terror attack played a decisive role. Recently, Netanyahu garnered headlines with a dramatic illustration allegedly showing a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv. Eisenkot accused the head of government of inciting fear. Furthermore, he pointed out that Netanyahu had not achieved his goals in the last war against Iran several months ago. The Prime Minister had promised not only the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program but also the downfall of the leadership in Tehran. What a Change of Government Could Mean for the Middle East Observers in Israel predict there will likely be another war with Iran—even if there is a change in government. Most Israeli opposition parties, like Netanyahu's Likud, reject the establishment of a Palestinian state. According to observers, violence in the West Bank should at least be contained in the event of a change in government. Regarding the stalled Gaza plan, which aims for a complete end to the war and reconstruction of the heavily destroyed Gaza Strip, experts believe progress could be made with a new government. In the Lebanon conflict, Eisenkot also insists that the Lebanese Hezbollah militia must be disarmed before Israel withdraws its troops from the southern part of the neighboring country. The Israeli embassy in Vienna reported conducting an early vote on October 15th. Ambassador David Roet stated in a Tuesday dispatch: "Jews, Muslims, Christians, and Druze, citizens of different faiths, backgrounds, and political views, have equal voting rights and can shape the future of our country. In a region where democracy is missing everywhere or is only inadequately present, participation in free elections is also a moment of pride and a reminder of the values we are committed to upholding." Comments