Russia's threat to Germany: How big is it?

Russia's Threat to Germany: How Big Is It? October 17, 2026 The warnings about a Russian threat to Germany are increasing. The President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Sinan Selen, said on Monday (October 12) in Berlin that Russia's covert attacks and destabilization actions against Germany and other European states are not "a temporary development, but a long-term hybrid attack". According to Selen, the Russian threat will not disappear with the end of the war in Ukraine. "For Russia, it is about a complete recartography of Europe and its own role within Europe and in world politics." Russia's aggressions will continue to be experienced not only in Ukraine but also in the Baltics, Poland, and especially in Germany. Russia is still bound in Ukraine Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt now describes the threat situation as follows: "Our country is not at war, but we are a daily target of hybrid warfare." Russia does not aim to militarily defeat Germany, "but to subdue us politically and socially." However, security experts are not so sure whether Russia is really only aiming for political and social influence. As far back as last year, political scientist Carlo Masala said in the ARD broadcast "Maischberger": "Russia is preparing for a big war." And by that, he did not mean only a cyberwar. General Inspector Carsten Breuer, the supreme soldier of the Bundeswehr, agrees with this assessment. Russia is still strongly bound in Ukraine. There is currently no immediate military threat to the NATO area, in the opinion of NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. But according to the coinciding assessments of military experts, European intelligence services, and the Federal Ministry of Defence, Russia will be capable of waging a conventional war against NATO in terms of personnel and material by at least 2029. The Russian arms industry is running at full speed. And Moscow plans to increase the armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers. At the moment, something else is at play, believes Stefan Meister, Eastern Europe expert at the German Society for Foreign Policy: "I believe that Russia currently has no interest in a direct military conflict with NATO. It wants to test and demonstrate NATO." He said this to DW. Military confrontation by accident? Example: the failed attack with a munition drone on Ukrainian transport vehicles at Leipzig-Halle Airport in August. A large part of the military aid for Ukraine is coordinated via Leipzig. The German government soon realized that Russia was behind it and made this public. The security expert Nico Lange told DW at the time that they were lucky that the munition did not explode: "Frankly, it was pure coincidence and not the result of German defensive measures." Why did it hit Germany? "I believe that Germany has always been a main target for Russian influence and hybrid warfare. Russia believes that Germany is the key to European decisions. Germany is now leading in supporting Ukraine," Lange said. In response to the accusation by the federal government, there was an angry denunciation from Moscow. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said this was "the beginning of a real war". However, no further escalation occurred. Nevertheless, there is always the danger that things may get out of control after a Russian provocation and corresponding countermeasures, according to Stefan Meister: "They shoot a plane by accident, which they want to push away, and there is a counteraction. But I do not believe that Russia is currently aiming for a direct war, so to speak, but for provocations, division, insecurity of the population." AfD: More Money for Germany Without Ukraine Support Not everyone shares the view that Germany is threatened by Russia - or that one can avert the threat. Politicians, especially those in parts of the right-wing AfD and the left-populist BSW, want to improve relations with Russia despite the war in Ukraine, resume Russian energy supplies, and end support for Ukraine. Tino Chrupalla of the AfD said at the elections in the state parliaments in early September during the campaign: "This escalation towards Russia, the billions being wasted there in a system that is actually German taxpayer money, people are fed up." The message got through. The AfD experienced strong gains in all three state election rounds. In Saxony-Anhalt, it was by far the strongest force and could lead the state government in the future. It would be a premiere in Germany. However, the CDU security politician Roderich Kiesewetter denied the alleged connection between the AfD and the BSW to DW, stating that an end to Ukraine aid means more security and more money for German social policy: "Expenditures for education, social policy, and infrastructure are only possible if we live in freedom and democracy and above all, in security. Whoever believes we have more money for social affairs if we stop support for Ukraine and let Russia get away with it is gravely mistaken or is becoming an instrument of Russian propaganda." Decades-long pacifist mentality The Bundeswehr is currently being comprehensively modernized with a lot of money due to the threat analysis. But it is having difficulty finding enough recruits for the planned increase. Students are protesting against conscription - just as they protested for more climate protection until recently. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) was also criticized by some of his own party members when he said Germany had to become "war-capable". This sounded too martial to many. Is Germany prepared for a military threat too? Stefan Meister says: "Not at all good. It is neither militarily well prepared, nor in the civil sphere, nor is the population mentally prepared. They also see the demonstrations against conscription, against the military, which continue to take place even though Germany needs conscription. We have been raised in this pacifism for decades and in a comfort zone. I believe there is a very limited social resilience, but above all, we are not mentally prepared for war and not ready for it." Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU are increasingly under political pressure, especially from the right, to reduce support for Ukraine. But Merz will not tire of emphasizing that Ukraine continues to be supported under his chancellorship. This also concerns Germany's security. For this reason, he was recently in Kyiv again and got an assessment of the Russian devastations with the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyj. However, this also means that the threat from Russia will continue and increase, says Stefan Meister of the German Society for Foreign Policy: "I believe that we will see a massive increase in such attacks (as in Leipzig), provocations with drones. We will see attacks on infrastructure, possibly also on certain individuals from the military-industrial complex. I believe this is the real, concrete danger to Germany in the coming months."