Family drama: The dynamics behind the NATO group photo

01 The wild card Donald Trump Allies were on their best behavior going into this week’s summit to avoid drawing Trump’s ire, pledging to increase their defense spending and buy American-made weapons. It wasn’t enough to stop the anti-NATO tirade Trump immediately unleashed upon setting foot in Ankara. Trump told reporters shortly after arriving in town that he “was very disappointed with NATO” and slammed allies for failing to recognize the U.S.’s outsize role. “Why are we spending hundreds of billions of dollars, and they’re not there for us?” Trump said. “We’ve always been there for them.” He went on to reiterate his longstanding grievances with the alliance, complaining that members weren’t doing enough to boost their defense spending goals, bashing European immigration and energy policy and once more floating that the U.S. should take control of Greenland, reigniting a feud with allies over the future of the Arctic island. The two-day summit didn’t seem to do much to change his mind. In a flare of frustration during a pull-aside with NATO chief Mark Rutte on Wednesday, Trump declared, “I'm not happy with NATO because of what they did with Greenland, and I'm not happy with NATO because of the fact that they didn't want to help us with the number one state sponsor of terror, that's Iran.” He went on to name Germany, France, the U.K. and Italy as laggard allies before ripping into Spain as a “wasted cause” and ordering a halt to trade with the country. His outburst underscored the new reality: Washington’s relationship with NATO has fundamentally shifted, as the world’s most powerful military pulls back from the alliance. 02 The chief Mark Rutte As Trump pressures the alliance’s foundation, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is working overtime to keep it all together. His strategy: kiss the ring. Rutte, who has so mastered the art of Trump-whispering that he called him “daddy” during last year’s summit, has landed on a thus-far successful playbook for dealing with the U.S. president: focus on the finances. Last year, he won Trump’s favor by promising allies would boost their defense spending. This year, he vowed that members would invest in U.S. defense companies. In a conversation with POLITICO ahead of this week’s summit, Rutte gave a full-throated endorsement of Trump’s controversial policies, arguing that getting allies to boost defense spending and modernize their militaries was a winning move. And he didn’t stop there, saying that launching the Iran war was also a smart decision by Washington. “I just like the man. I think what he is doing for NATO is great news,” the alliance chief said. After the U.S. launched major retaliatory strikes against Iran and Trump said the ceasefire was all but over, Rutte offered his support for the move, saying it was “absolutely necessary” and a “very strong response.” Despite Trump’s constant grousing, Rutte is determined to send the message that the U.S. is still a full partner in the alliance. “I think the president has a point that there are individual cases where he is rightly disappointed, but when you look at the bigger picture of what the Europeans are doing, it is massive,” he said, pointing to a slew of defense spending commitments and assistance from European countries during the U.S.’s campaign against Iran. 03 The host with the most (to gain) Recep Tayyip Erdogan Every family has its problem child. Turkey has long been that for NATO, whether it’s maintaining close relationships with both Moscow and Beijing or a track record of human rights violations (including a recent crackdown against protesters), not to mention its occupation of Cyprus and constant feuding with Greece. But as Washington pulls back from the alliance, members are considering closer military ties with Ankara, which has the second-largest military after the United States. That’s not all Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had going for him as he hosted this year’s summit — he’s also a Trump favorite. If not for Erdogan playing host, the U.S. president may not have shown up this week at all, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office last week. Ankara is expected to leverage that favor to clinch a deal to rejoin the U.S.’s F-35 fighter jet program — which Trump tossed Turkey out of in 2019 over Ankara’s purchase of Russian antiaircraft systems. Trump teased that the deal could be on the horizon, telling reporters Tuesday that “it’s a decision we’re going to make,” and adding that “Turkey in many ways has been much more loyal than other countries we think would be loyal.” But even if Turkish and American leaders ink a deal, it’ll likely be met with significant bipartisan pushback from Congress, which has the ability to block the sale of the fighter jets. 04 The friend breakup Giorgia Meloni Before Erdogan stepped up to the plate, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni played the part of chief Trump-whisperer. That relationship went off the rails earlier this year over Meloni’s lack of enthusiastic support for the war in Iran. It worsened further after the recent G7 summit in France, when Trump claimed that Meloni had begged him for a photo, prompting a harsh rebuke from his former Italian pal. “Italy and I never beg,” Meloni said at the time. Trump appeared to escalate their public feud ahead of this week’s summit, posting a meme on social media that he needed a restraining order against his Italian counterpart. While Meloni’s allies jumped to her defense, Rome brushed off Trump’s comments as insignificant. That strategy seemed to defuse the tensions — at least a little. “I think she's a nice person actually,” Trump told reporters when asked about his post on Tuesday. But all is not forgotten: “She refused to get involved … so it soured my relationship with her a little bit,” he added, seemingly referring to Italy’s refusal to help with Trump’s Strait of Hormuz operations. 05 The last hurrah Keir Starmer It’s U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s last big global event before he hands over the keys to 10 Downing Street to challenger Andy Burnham later this month. He didn’t land in Ankara set up for success. Starmer showed up without a clear plan for the U.K. to meet the defense spending goals demanded by Trump. The Defense Investment Plan Starmer released last week only outlined a plan to reach 2.7 percent GDP defense spending by 2029 — and skipped laying out a plan for how the U.K. would get to 3.5 percent by 2035. U.K. Defense Secretary Dan Jarvis — whose predecessor abruptly quit the position less than a month ago over defense spending frustrations — told POLITICO that he believes it’s “mission critical” to come up with a path to 3.5 percent as soon as possible. That’s the message he planned to deliver in Ankara, he added. That may not be enough to avoid drawing the wrath of Trump, who is already displeased with his British counterpart over what he perceives as Starmer’s failure to back the U.S. during the Iran war. 06 Not pictured — The neighbor in need Volodymyr Zelenskyy Not all key players are part of the NATO family. After weathering multiple deadly attacks from Moscow’s ballistic missiles in recent days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy showed up to speak with his NATO neighbors in Ankara with air defense top of mind. “Please help us get more air defense missiles. This is our top priority right now,” Zelenskyy told the NATO Defense Industry Forum on Tuesday. The Ukrainian leader made that ask repeatedly in recent weeks. He even penned a letter to Trump and Congress to make his case for more U.S.-made Patriot defense systems, which are uniquely equipped to combat Russian ballistic missile attacks. But the Iran war further eroded an already limited global stockpile of Patriots, leaving the U.S. in short supply to rearm a battered Kyiv. Trump’s solution? Have Ukraine produce their own Patriots. “We're going to give a license to you to make Patriots,” Trump told Zelenskyy ahead of a bilateral meeting Wednesday. “This way, you can't complain that we're not giving them enough. I say make them yourself.” Though he added that “we haven’t told the company yet,” Trump assured that everything would “work out alright.” As for the status of efforts to end the war, Trump said “you can’t have a deadline, it’s too much going on, but I think you’re going to have a deal.” In an ominous sign of the state of the U.S.’s commitment to ending the conflict that has set nearby NATO on edge for more than four years, Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the war “doesn’t affect us.”