The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: The canola market rebounded today with the nearby contract up by C$4.80 per tonne and closing at C$723.90 per tonne. The good news is that canola gains were supported by a 0.23 per cent gain in soybean oil. Even more impressive was the reaction from the canola market in response to a seven to eight cent per bushel drop in the soybean market. The gains in ICE canola were also supported by a 0.6 per cent gain in the European rapeseed contract. Support for canola and the vegetable oil complex came mostly from a 4.8 per cent gain in the nearby crude oil price. Read Also The Good, Bad & Ugly The Good: Canola exports were strong in the week ending on March 15 with 292,100 tonnes exported during the week…. The Bad: The spring wheat market closed up by four cents per bushel to settle at US$6.31 per bushel. The bad news is that prices remain 10 cents per bushel below the trading range of the contract last week. The Kansas City futures market closed up by one to two cents per bushel, while Chicago markets were off by two cents per bushel. The bad news is that wheat markets remain under pressure from the approaching winter wheat harvest. The wheat harvest in India is well underway while harvest activity in the southern U.S. will begin in about two months. The Ugly: New York harbour diesel futures were higher today with the nearby May contract up by 24 cents per gallon and traded close to US$4.22 per gallon. The positive news is that this is down from the US$4.84 per gallon high in Monday’s session. These prices are the highest since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The markets are focused on crude oil futures, but crude oil products are actually in shorter supply from the war in the Middle East. The diesel market is very tight with supplies dropping in the U.S. to 116.9 million barrels in the week ending on March 13. This is the lowest level of diesel stocks since the beginning of the year. The ugly news is that diesel stocks are similar to the levels experienced in 2021 and 2022. The tight physical supplies and speculative buying has pushed Canadian wholesale diesel prices to their highest levels in the past five years. That is ugly news for farmers who will be soon in the field planting the 2026 crop.