How Vladimir Putin Intends to Recruit Trump to Russia’s Side in WWIII

Back on February 22 — before Trump started a catastrophically stupid war in Iran — Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Beeb that Vladimir Putin had already started World War III, to which Beeb interviewer Jeremy Bowen tried unsuccessfully to get Zelenskyy to agree that handing over Donetsk would be a reasonable concession for peace. Putin, Zelensky told me, has already started World War Three, and the only answer was intense military and economic pressure to force him to step back. “I believe that Putin has already started it. The question is how much territory he will be able to seize and how to stop him… Russia wants to impose on the world a different way of life and change the lives people have chosen for themselves.” What about Russia’s demand for Ukraine to hand over the 20% of the eastern region of Donetsk that it still holds – a line of towns Ukraine calls “fortress cities” – as well as more land in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Isn’t that, I asked, a reasonable request if it produces a ceasefire? “I see this differently. I don’t look at it simply as land. I see it as abandonment – weakening our positions, abandoning hundreds of thousands of our people who live there. That is how I see it. And I am sure that this ‘withdrawal’ would divide our society.” But isn’t it a good price to pay if that satisfies Putin? Do you think it would satisfy him? “It would probably satisfy him for a while… he needs a pause… but once he recovers, our European partners say it could take three to five years. In my opinion, he could recover in no more than a couple of years. Where would he go next? We do not know, but that he would want to continue [the war] is a fact.” Since that time, the following has happened: - Trump launched an attack on Iran, based on advice from his badly conflicted Gaza-Ukraine-Middle East “negotiators” Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that was itself based on wild misunderstanding of what Iran was offering. - In response, Russia provided Iran with intelligence that helped them take out key communications facilities in the Gulf states, probably killing Benjamin Pennington in the process. - Witkoff asked Russia and they denied helping Iran take out US-backed defenses of Gulf countries — “We can take them at their word,” Witkoff said. “Let’s hope that they’re not sharing.” - Iran has established a stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz and damaged the Gulf States’ critical infrastructure, creating a historic energy crisis. - Between March 9 and 15, a sophisticated drone probe — believed to be beyond Iran’s capabilities — at Barksdale Air Force Base grounded the B-52s that were used in attacks on Iran (and would be used in any nuclear confrontation). - Two missiles — attributed to Iran but denied by them — targeted Diego Garcia, 2,500 miles away from Iran - Trump rewarded Russia for targeting US troops by easing sanctions on their oil. - Trump rewarded Iran for killing US troops by easing sanctions on their oil. - Trump claimed that Iran’s decision to let eight mostly Pakistani ships transit the Strait was instead a gift to him. - Trump has repeatedly juiced markets with false claims that Iran is pursuing peace, all while preparing a 20,000-person land invasion of Iran which is more likely to escalate further than to get the Strait open; his transparent efforts to juice markets are having diminishing success. - Due to the damage to US bases imposed with Russian help, US troops have significantly abandoned those bases; Iran has now accused the US of taking human shields and warned civilians to leave facilities hosting troops (including hotels) as those will be (and were in the first round) targeted. - According to Politico, Kirill Dmitriev told Witkoff and Kushner Russia would cut off Iran if the US cut off Ukraine (though Dmitriev denies it). - Russia provided drones and other critical supplies to Iran; which Israel (possibly acting alone) attempted to thwart by striking the Caspian based used in such supply. - Kushner, whose epically terrible advice started this catastrophic war, described himself as a “volunteer” at an investor conference. - Tulsi Gabbard laundered claims of Ukrainian assistance to Joe Biden via right wing pro-Russian propagandists, another attempt to frame Biden. - The Congressperson that Dmitriev has long been recruiting, Anna Paulina Luna, hosted a number of sanctioned Russian Duma members for a “peace” conference. - The US has told Ukraine any security guarantees would be contingent on Ukraine giving Russia the rest of Donetsk, effectively a step towards the quid pro quo that Dmiriev denies. Trump has two options to get the Strait of Hormuz open, neither of which would restore the status quo from before Trump’s disastrous attack, if they work at all: to use the cover of other quasi-negotiations to capitulate on Russia’s terms, effectively losing the war to Iran for Russian assurances that Iran will keep the Strait open, or to send those 20,000 troops to conduct incredibly difficult operations with degraded local facilities. I’m not saying that Trump has already decided to capitulate to Russia. Though it is the kind of neat solution — one that likely comes with financial benefits for his family and his developer buddy — that would allow Trump to go back to gaudying up more of the White House, his real passion. I’m saying that until Trump’s two insanely unqualified and conflicted “volunteer” negotiators are replaced with grown-ups, this will continue to be a real possibility. Ukraine has been carrying on as if operating on Zelenskyy’s judgment that this is World War III, probably recognizing all the while that the US war on Iran makes any security guarantees Trump would offer, already paper-thin without ceding Donetsk, would be impossible deliver given the shortage of resources created by the Iran war. Zelenskyy has offered the Gulf States and, after the US had rejected such an offer last year, the US with expertise gained from defending against Iranian Shaheds used in Russia’s invasion. This morning Ukraine and the Saudis signed a security agreement that might offset US efforts to abandon Ukraine. More spectacularly, after Trump rewarded Russia by lifting sanctions on Russia’s oil, Ukraine has been targeting Russia’s oil infrastructure in long-range strikes, resulting in the suspension of as much as 40% of Russia’s exports. All that, while Russia targets UNESCO heritage sites (in Lviv, close to the border with Poland) and maternity hospitals. This may not, yet, be a world war, though it merits keeping the possibility in mind. But the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran have been linked from the start, certainly in Putin’s mind. And if that’s the case, then Trump has long been leaning towards joining on Russia’s side — the side killing US service members. A refresher on Anna Paulina Luna, from the WaPo of the before times. If less attention had been paid to George Santos at the time, more question might have arisen about Luna. Maybe OT, CBC news reports Trump related companies are buying rare earth mineral mines in northern Quebec. More on that on The Fifth Estate, a program on CBC tv tonight or at some point on youtube. Steven Feinberg, CEO Cerebus private equity fund, $65 billion in US assets. Fund invested $50 million for further development of untapped deposits in Lac Brisson & Sept-iles, Quebec. Additional $55 million in development loans from Canada Infrastructure Bank. Feinberg was nominated for deputy defense secretary last year, chaired Trump’s Intelligence Advisory Board in 2018, contributed over $3 million over two elections. Cerebus-owned security company trained four Saudis involved in murder of Jamal Khashoggi; DOJ fined Cerebus-owned paramilitary outfit $1.5 million for Iraqi security kick-back scheme. Nice guy to work for, I guess cbc, nunavik rare earth metals Great name for a private equity fund, too (it’s Cerberus, the 3-headed hound of hell, not Cerebus). Dan Quayle, btw, is their Global Investments Chairman and John Snow (W’s Treasury Secy) is their Chairman of Capital Management. “Maybe OT, CBC news reports Trump related companies are buying rare earth mineral mines…” Remember when Trump would blather about magnets? Something about magnets and water. As I remember, his blather was so stupid nobody bothered to investigate. From https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-electrocution-sharks_n_651a29cce4b094f840214b06 “But if I’m sitting down, and that boat’s going down, and I’m on top of a battery, and the water starts flooding in, I’m getting concerned,” Trump said at an event in Iowa in Sunday. “But then I look 10 yards to my left and there’s a shark over there. So I have a choice of electrocution or shark, you know what I’m gonna take? Electrocution. I will take electrocution every single time.”…He’s also had a long-running problem with sharks, according to Stormy Daniels, the porn star who says she had an affair with the then-TV host in 2006. “He is obsessed with sharks,” Daniels said in an interview with In Touch magazine in 2011. “Terrified of sharks. He was like, ‘I donate to all these charities and I would never donate to any charity that helps sharks. I hope all the sharks die.’” I would like to know whether a Democratic win in November would in any way halt or reverse some of these actions and impacts in a meaningful way, and if so because of it Trump is going all-in right now? Is the world really in the hands of voters in NE-2 and NY-17? Only if they take the bull by the horns and immediately, upon swearing-in, begin impeachment proceedings in the House — using charges being compiled and assembled as we blog, in these 9 months prior. The biggest obstacle to such an effort would be deciding which charges to ignore for the sake of a coherent prosecution. This should be the case despite a Senate that my not have crested a supermajority of Dems to convict. It has to be done, in no small degree, to grind the fascist machinery to a standstill, and to demonstrate to the nation and the world the depth of his nation-wrecking depravity and greed. My opinion is that Emoluments should be the point of the Impeachment spear. It’s also worth noting that KSA has inked a deal with UKN likely because Trump dismissed Zelenskyy’s offer of anti-drone assistance a few weeks ago. I would argue that impeachment only makes sense if it supports a greater project of forcing accountability on the Republican party’s support and protection of Trump. Sooner or later there will be an After Trump, and if you look at Republican leadership it has every incentive to keep going down the path Trump has blazed for them at home and abroad. Holding Trump accountable does nothing to drag the Republican party back into representative democracy via something like Reconstruction 2.0. The alternatives are all much worse. I think it does, ultimately. What I’d want is a permanent impeachment committee (at least for the whole of the next term) which would put together multiple ‘coherent prosecutions’ on all the multiple reasons for which Trump should be impeached, from DOGE to ICE to emoluments to Iran, and anything else. Publish charges 2-3 times a year so there’s no let up. I do not believe that you can drag Republican leadership back into representative democracy without changing the definitions of representative democracy. With a few exceptions the Republican leadership has demonstrated that they approve and support Bukele-style “democracy”. Declaring them pariah, anathema and treasonous, thus forbidden from power or public office, would be my recommendation. You should know better. For starters, what do you think happens if Dems win a majority in either or both houses of Congress? If not impeachment, you have investigations, a plethora of them, and public documentation of Trump’s excesses and wrongdoing. You have no nominees getting Senate approval. All the budgets Trump has and has asked for could go up in smoke. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend,” or some derivative of it, seems to be what’s put Ukraine and the Saudis into a partnership. UKN has the drone-defense chops and the Saudis have financing. “Hand in glove,” as another saying goes. This is a very big deal; thanks for the heads up, Marcy. It’s hard to fathom the vapid stupidity of the Trump gang. Witkoff’s comment about Russia noted in the bullet points above (“We can take them at their word,” Witkoff said. “Let’s hope that they’re not sharing.”) displays the diplomatic acumen of a lump of cheese on a hot skillet. Witkoff’s “We can take them at their word” also, of course, echoes Trump in Helsinki, when he stood next to a grinning Putin and informed the world that he believed Russia over his own intelligence service. So there’s a long tradition among this tribe of being (willfully, I would argue) gulled by a trained GRU operative. They had to have been warned, but narcissistic arrogance can, in fact, carry you all the way into world wars. So Zelenskyy is helping prop of the KSA against possible Shahed damage. I hope that does not backfire as Putin and MBS fight over their favorite whore. While not widely reported (yes, truth being the first casualty…) US bases are being reported as uninhabitable in the region. And is it 20,000 troops massing in addition to the 40K ish already there? We have the naïf real estate twins working side deals disguised as negotiations. By some accounts the Iranians spent their ‘throwaway’ arsenal early and likely have medium range ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of upwards to 1,200 miles. This is far from over people. The ridiculous claim of a ‘big expensive gift’ in the form of oil tankers? The earlier post regarding bookend oil wars vs. WWIII may be dovetailing now. And the Petroyuan is becoming a reality with the stabilization of the CIPS system. I believe Iran has the upper hand here for the long run – and we in the US are going to suffer for the rash impulses of the orange toddler. We appear to have been sold down the river – and while some here poo-poo the term Krasnov it damn well looks like he is siding with Russia. VOTE Iran only has the upper hand because the leaders are not treating this like a war – and neither are the Gulf States. We (and they) have no tolerance for interruption, casualty, business loss, or any abiding of discomfort that are all byproducts of war. I’m not at all advocating for anything other than a full withdrawal, but it seems like it was always inevitable that the US would have to choose all in or all out at some point and I fear its the former We are and have been sold down the river by Trump and his cabal (although I always took cabal to include some intelligence). Whereas many Americans are pretty much stuck in America, Trump and his multi-billionaire oligarch “friends” are transnational and will thus avoid consequence. I truly believe that the goal is to extract what value America has, sell it and then jump ship, figuratively. The Barksdale drone attack is a wild story. According to the Asia Times article the B52 base has neither air defenses nor fighters, and is highly vulnerable to drones, as are other domestic air bases. Another indication of the rotten, hollow nature of our vaunted political/military establishment exposed by Trump’s adventurism. We’ve been using up our $2m Tomahawks to fight off $35k drones and are about to confront the difficulty of restocking in the face of helium and sulfur shortages resulting from the “unexpected” closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Our Gulf protection racket is coming unglued with the attacks on US regional bases and energy production sites. It may be a good thing for our hegemony to wither, but what fresh hell will replace it? Thanks so much for your in depth coverage of events. I learn much here that is hard to find otherwise. Used up the Tomahawks, so now reportedly replenishing inventory using European money paid for support for Ukraine. TrumpUSA is not so much a petrostate, more a kleptostate. Klepto-idiocracy? Yes that’s $750MM stolen from European countries that contributed to the PURL fund, apparently taking a page from Orban’s play book raid on Ukrainian armored Bank cars. The Tomahawks aren’t actually being used against Iran’s drones, other than in the sense of targeting ground facilities/equipment/vehicles + personnel. It’s the preposterous use of expensive patriot system missiles to shoot down inexpensive Iranian drones that really takes the cake. [Welcome back to emptywheel. Please use the SAME USERNAME and email address each time you comment so that community members get to know you. You attempted to publish this comment as “aarleychino” triggering auto-moderation; it has been edited to reflect your established username. Please check your browser’s cache and autofill; future comments may not publish if username does not match. /~Rayne 2:43 PM ET] DOD apparently wasn’t learning from Ukraine – or anyone else – about drones. (HS classmate was doing drone-mounted aerial photography before 2018.) I’m telling you, the big fracas comes not when we or the Iranians run out of this or that missile. The big social and political consequences will come when Trump runs out of MEN (and women, of course). The US is already behind on volunteers. Is Trump going to impose a draft? Who wants to fight for Trump and Hegseth and the Dominionists? I have not seen this problem treated (and I read a lot of news and opinion) anywhere. The soldiers are not even worth noticing, like they are just another piece of equipment. They’ve not gone for a draft yet, but they have apparently upped the age limit for recruits to 42 and will ignore some previous drug offences, which suggests a certain difficulty in getting enough manpower (and we know it must be men in this man’s army as long as pretty boy Hegseth is in charge). https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/25/army-max-enlistment-marijuana-restrictions It’s as funny thing. Hegseth is continually reducing the number of women and minorities (Which ones? All of them, Katie) from the services. All Hegseth had to do is retain these people so they will be in the first wave of ‘butts on the ground’ carrying out Hegseth’s campaigns. That’ll get rid of them. In stead of fighting ,( except for financial considerations) they will thank their lucky stars. Kegseth is definitely “in charge” – he wants to deny promotion to brigadier general for four officers, because two are non-white and two are female. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/27/pete-hegseth-cuts-black-men-women-military-promotion-list Sounds like America is about to recruit an army similar to the one Russia has deployed in Ukraine. The administration may have to start offering recruitment as an alternative to deportation. A sure sign of spring or something else arriving, lawn signs are popping up: “America’s Navy – Start Your Journey” and “Navy Reserve – It’s the Navy Plus Everything You Love”. It feels like a war when you can see it. Watching a flight of three B1s heading out over the skies of Southern England yesterday afternoon, knowing that when they returned this morning some part of Iran will be laid waste and a few more Iranians who may or may not have anything to do with the regime be dead is pretty chilling. By the way slightly unfortunate snark at Jeremy Bowen, probably the best and most balanced English language reporter on international affairs around at the moment. His question as to giving up the Donbas represented the known position of Putin and apparently Trump and knew precisely what Zelenskyy’s answer would be. Possibly, but there are still far too many people around who seem to take it seriously, and think that the new wave of industrial-scale Russian torture, rape and pillage in the name of “peace” that would follow is a price worth (the Ukranians) paying for their own ivory-tower peace of mind. The Russians have kidnapped and tortured literally thousands of Ukrainian children. Trump wants Zelensky to make a deal with that? Trump’s deals concern land and money. And maybe some shiny golden baubles that he can put in his office to remind him how great he is. But basically land and money. As far as war goes, he seems to see it as some sort of video game from which they can pick and post their biggest ‘scores’. Does he actually understand that real people are dying? He lives in a fantasy world these days, only bothered about stock market prices and how much he can monetise the chaos he inflicts on others. Who are the imbeciles who still think — strike that, “believe” the trump administration defends or serves the US and Americans? (Looks like members of congress who are jumping ship cant wait to start counting their payoff piles of gold?) Members of Congress jumping ship probably indicate a desire to avoid prosecution and still keep their gold. Shunning should be the response, at a minimum. They have violated their oaths of service and allegiance. Hungary has an election next month; if Orban is ousted (quite possible, but not certain) then the €90 billion EU loan he has blocked May finally get approved. If that loan goes through, Ukraine can continue to fight effectively against Russia for at least another year or two, without further aid from the US. If the EU, along with Canada, support Ukraine for the rest of Trump’s term, and continue to strengthen their own defences (Canada finally has met its 2% NATO obligation, and Carney is hoping to get to 5%), then WWIII may be averted, Putin kept in check, and the US left isolated and alone. So, in the face of rising discontent in the heartland, it was decided that what this country needs is a president who is “not a politician”. Right. The Republican Party, responsive as ever to what has got hold of the public imagination, digs up an entertaining, rich, interior decorator with a fetish for goldleaf and makes him its candidate. He is the Swiss Army knife of candidates: a man-of-the-people plutocrat billionaire. The Democrats put up career politicians, as usual; ho hum. We elect the interior decorator, twice, and then it turns out he, too, is dishonest and incompetent, and preoccupied with someone developing a really convincing gold paint. What went wrong? “What went wrong?” Well, I checked the instruction book ‘How to go from being the richest country into Authoritarianism and Immiseration in two years’ The first rule is: ‘Select for your ruler a man who is in his physical prime, with a modicum of intelligence, not someone very close to passing out on stage.’ The war in Ukraine is a civil war. There is a linguistic and cultural split in Ukraine which created the post USSR political Ukrainian landscape as pro Russian or pro Euro. That political split was partly based on geography and on economics. Donbas was a Soviet Pittsburg, surrounded by coal mines. Once wealth producing now obsolete junk and I’m not sure how much is left of it. If we can accept the absurdity which is Kosovo then I think accepting the division of sovereignty of Ukraine is doable. It’s time to stop the war in the Bloodlands. It’s a tragedy it got so far. Ukrainians don’t think so. This war is uniting them. Its possible that you could have made that case in 2014, but it seems forced and not cognizant of the extreme sacrifices Ukrainians have made since that time to prove you wrong. Calling it a “civil war” is just regurgitating Russian propaganda Okay, Old Rapier, you first! Please, go to Russia and live under Russian circumstances. Oh, and sign a ‘contract’ for military service. Have you forgotten that the Russians starved millions of Ukrainians to death in the 1930’s by taking their grain and feeding it to Russians? And then Russia moved many more settlers into the Donbas, further supplanting the surviving Ukrainians and their culture with more ethnic Russians. That is exactly how Donbas came to have such a large population that considered themselves to be ‘Russian’, and exactly how the ‘linguistic and cultural split’ that you mention came to be. Traditional Ukrainian culture aligns more with Scandinavia than with Russia, and the Ukrainians haven’t forgotten. This! You may have an opinion but it counts for exactly squat because the only opinion that matters is that of the people in occupied Eastern Ukraine. Nothing without them, without their consent. As one other commenter has mentioned, Ukraine has suffered deeply for Russian territorial aspirations, a suffering most Americans haven’t experienced in their history. Try reading about the Holomodor before insisting on capitulation as compromise without the consent of the affected. I have a friend who is a former military intelligence analyst who has been telling me for years that WW3 started with the most recent invasion of Ukraine, and that Israel fighting Iranian proxies is just another theater of that same war, since Russia and Iran are close military allies. They are far more pro-Israel than I am these days, but I can’t say that they are wrong about the overall geopolitical situation. But it is much more complicated than that. The behaviour of Russia as described by thequickbrownfox above is surprisingly close to the behaviour of Israel in pretneding that the Palestinians are there by some mischance. Iran’s behaviour may be dire but the causes of the views of its “proxies” are real and must not be ignored. Paula White prays for wealth. Hegseth prays for overwhelming violence. WWJD? Who would Jesus demolish? If you will forgive me some flippancy, I think this song makes more sense than trying to link anything Trump or Hegseth do to Jesus (who must be spinning in his, umm, soft heavenly cloud?). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNJmfuEWR8w or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmBM8vpRMMQ Take your pick, heh. Army raises enlistment age to 42. Whew! That was a close one! Barron was just about to ship out overseas. Wow, if 42 is the minimum age for service, I had better start physical training, pronto. Yeah…nope. The Road goes ever on and on Out from the door where it began. Now far ahead the Road has gone, Let others follow it who can! Let them a journey new begin, But I at last with weary feet Will turn towards the lighted inn, My evening-rest and sleep to meet. J.R.R. Tolkien There seems to be part of a line missing in the fourth paragraph from the bottom, the one beginning ‘Ukraine has been carrying on;” after the words “Trump would offer, already paper,” there is an extra space, and the subsequent clause “Zelensky has offered the Gulf States, and after the U.S. had rejected” is not clearly linked to it. Thanks. I think I fixed it. Just trying to note that ceding Donetsk makes a security guarantee unworkable in the best of circumstances but with all the resources Trump has squandered in Iran, impossible. I have a hard time seeing Israel surviving this as it feels like its “winning” makes the expanded country with all the people under its control, impossible to manage. ‘Israel’s Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir issued a stark warning to the country’s cabinet this week: unless urgent measures are taken, the Israeli army is on the brink of collapse.’ https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/3/27/raising-10-red-flags-is-israels-army-exhausted The article cites Israel’s Channel 13. I don’t have a link to that. Israel seem determined to ignore the classic Jewish joke about Rabbi, his bright student, and the astronomy book. “[Trump] treats Putin as his client.” American Conversations: Timothy Snyder at 15:46. https://www.youtube.com/live/5kqslmq4oIE?t=946s I think this Timothy Snyder- Heather Cox Richardson conversation is very hand in glove with the above post and highly recommend. [Moderator’s note: YouTube URL edited to remove tracking. /~Rayne] Yikes. As “his patron.” Thanks for the link. Excellent conversation. OK, so my reply comment about Tomahawk missile use et al has been deleted by the “moderator”. So you don’t need or desire information from me, and as I’m an infrequent participant you won’t miss what I have to say. So long emptywheel bookmark. [MODERATOR’S NOTE: First, your comment wasn’t deleted, it’s in the PENDING queue because YOU misspelled your own username as “aarleychino” triggering auto-moderation. Second, it hasn’t been cleared yet because it’s not the only thing I am doing as a moderator right now, and now I have to respond to your dickishness in comments. If you can’t exercise the patience to wait for a human volunteer to clear your mistake, then this may not be the place you. /~Rayne] “Trump rewarded Iran for killing US troops by easing sanctions on their oil.”. This may be a dumb question, but seeing as we are at war/ military actions with Iran, could this reasonably be considered treason? Of course its not treason if Trump does it. Its then considered aiding the enemy, a charitable act rewarded with a “great gift”.