If Balochistan breaks away from Pakistan, who will control Gwadar? China's $65 billion CPEC at stake

New Delhi: A declaration claiming that Balochistan has become an independent state has brought uncertainty for the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), one of Beijing's biggest overseas infrastructure projects. However, the claim has not been recognised by Pakistan, the United Nations or any sovereign state, and there is no independent verification that Balochistan has become an internationally recognised country. The claim has also led to questions about the future of Gwadar Port and whether agreements signed between Pakistan and China would continue if Balochistan were ever recognised as a sovereign state. The CPEC is valued at around $65 billion and stretches nearly 3,000 kilometres from Gwadar Port in Balochistan to China's Xinjiang region through highways, railways, pipelines and energy projects. It is one of the flagship initiatives under China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Gwadar is the most valuable asset in the CPEC network. The port is physically located in Balochistan, which means that under international law, if the province were to become an internationally recognised independent country, it would become part of its sovereign territory. That would not automatically end existing commercial agreements. China operates the port through the China Overseas Ports Holding Company (COPHC) under a long-term concession agreement signed with the Government of Pakistan. The deal gives China operational rights over the port, but ownership and sovereignty continue to belong to Pakistan under existing law. If Balochistan were recognised as an independent state in the future, a successor government could choose to continue those agreements and renegotiate them or terminate them, depending on its domestic laws and international legal obligations. Companies affected by any cancellation could also seek compensation through international arbitration. The same legal position could apply to mining projects, energy investments and other infrastructure agreements inherited from Pakistan. Gwadar serves as the southern gateway of the CPEC. Roads, rail links, industrial zones and planned energy pipelines all depend on access to the port. If Pakistan were no longer in control of Gwadar following international recognition of an independent Balochistan, the CPEC would no longer function in its existing form. China would almost certainly have to negotiate a new agreement with any internationally recognised government in Balochistan to keep the corridor operational. Infrastructure ownership would also become part of the negotiations. Many CPEC projects were financed through sovereign loans taken by Pakistan, making Islamabad the legal owner while it continues repaying those loans. Any future settlement could involve negotiations on debt, state succession and infrastructure ownership. Thousands of Chinese engineers, technicians and managers working on CPEC projects presently operate under visas and bilateral agreements with Pakistan. Any political change affecting Balochistan would require new legal arrangements governing work permits, visas and security. A future government could allow existing workers to continue, introduce new regulations or review China's presence altogether. Security has been one of Beijing's biggest concerns in Balochistan. Chinese nationals and projects related to the CPEC have faced repeated attacks from separatist groups over the past several years. It prompted Pakistan to deploy dedicated security forces to protect Chinese personnel and infrastructure. Any further deterioration in security could increase protection costs, delay infrastructure projects, raise insurance expenses and complicate China's long-term investment plans. Pakistan has promoted Gwadar as the centrepiece of the CPEC and one of its most valuable strategic assets. At the same time, the Gwadar Port Authority has informed the Balochistan government that the province does not receive a share of the revenue generated by the port, even though operational control rests with the China Overseas Ports Holding Company. Many Baloch groups have long argued that the province's natural resources and strategic location have benefited Islamabad and foreign investors more than local communities. Local groups have long demanded better employment opportunities, improved infrastructure and a share in the revenue generated from the port. The recent declaration claiming Balochistan's independence has added a geopolitical dimension to those long-standing issues. Even so, a declaration alone does not create a new country. Recognition by other governments, continued territorial control and admission to international institutions would all be necessary before any legal changes affecting Gwadar or the CPEC could take effect. Stay informed on all the latest news, real-time breaking news updates, and follow all the important headlines in india news and world news on Zee News.