Ukraine races to prepare for Winter

Top of mind in Kyiv for the leadership and populace is how to prepare for the coming winter, when Russia will surely work at incapacitating Ukraine’s electricity grid. Ukrainian air defense missiles are nearly depleted, and Russia is increasingly using jet-powered strike drones, which are harder to intercept than propeller-driven ones. In effect, things are looking grim for the winter following the most painful one yet last year. Residents are planning to move to western Ukraine for the winter, where they face less risk of freezing or Russian strikes, closer to the Polish border. However, demand is high for places to live in the west, so not everyone can afford the temporary move there. Some foreigners in Kyiv told me they were planning to leave the country for the winter. Years of attritional warfare ground down both armies. Now it’s a test of wills to see who can outlast the other, especially in the air war. This is something Kyiv has recognised and over the past year has been a central message of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In a June interview with the Financial Times, Zelensky said that the ‘battle in the sky’ would ultimately determine how the Russia–Ukraine war would end. The imperative for Kyiv is to protect the political will to fight, while ensuring continued Western presence and support. Ukraine has continued developing an arsenal of long-range drones, hammering Russian military facilities and oil refineries. It has also expanded its assembly of domestically produced jet missiles, such as the FP-5 Flamingo. The Flamingo has increasingly been causing problems for the Russians, but they are gradually adapting. On 17 August, Russia claimed it had shot down more than 800 Ukrainian drones during one of the largest drone attacks of the war. Kyiv also thought that striking cities where Russian elites live, such as Moscow, could force an aerial ceasefire. The Ukrainian side has already offered a ceasefire in the Black Sea, but it’s not clear whether Russia will consider the proposition. While Kyiv’s air campaign has yielded impressive results, such as widescale fuel shortages across Russia, its own air defences continue to be thinned out. Ukraine’s government estimates that it needs at least 300 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors ahead of the upcoming winter. The challenge is that in fighting Iran, the United States has run its own interceptor stock dangerously low. Ukrainian officials have stopped publishing interception rates of ballistic missiles, simply because there are few or no interceptor missiles to use. In July, US President Donald Trump promised Ukraine that he would grant a license to Ukraine to build Patriot interceptors. It was heralded as a breakthrough, as even former president Joe Biden had refused to give Kyiv such a license. However, American Patriot missile producers, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, have yet to move forward on the initiative. The reason for the holdout is not exactly clear, but The Atlantic reported that they worried that Ukraine might produce the interceptors more cheaply and in higher volumes, threatening their business models. The challenge is that Ukraine does not just need more Patriots. It has developed many drone interceptors that have helped counter Shaheds – propeller-driven long-range strike drones developed by Iran – but the threat continues to evolve. Russia’s increasing use of jet-powered drones greatly increases the interception challenge. Ukraine therefore needs more spending on air-launched missiles and munitions that can counter faster drones flying higher. Ukraine has already started making jet-powered interceptors. But defence against strike missiles is far costlier than offence – and Russia can make a lot of strike missiles. Still, Ukraine is hedging its bets. Even if it were to receive the Patriot license, getting production rates moving at meaningful rates could take years. So, Kyiv wants to expand cooperation with European countries. The intended outcome is a combined European missile defence system, the Freyja missile defence project, which will integrate various existing technologies. The aim is to have the first interceptor missile ready by mid-2027, but even that is too far out. Kyiv still needs to address the basics: fortifying the electricity grid, building concrete shelters around transformers and other critical equipment and moving substations underground. Stocking spare parts and further dispersing power generation can also make Russian strikes less effective, at least drone strikes. But more money is needed for all this, and there is simply not enough to cover every need. Russia will also target Ukraine’s water supply ahead of winter, and its drone strikes have already been focusing on hitting warehouses that store food. Former development minister Oleksii Kuleba said in March that physical hardening was effective: some hardened power grid nodes had withstood 40 direct hits from drones and missiles but had kept working. Ukraine is looking at a difficult winter, and arguably conditions may worsen, though much will depend on the weather. Last winter was the coldest in years, but if the next one is milder then pressure on the grid will be lower. Another harsh winter, with correspondingly high demand on the grid, would leave less room for recovery between attacks. But Russia is also facing growing pressure after years of attritional warfare. Its economy is coming under greater strain while the costs of war continue to grow. That makes getting Ukraine through another winter even more important. The question is increasingly which side can sustain the pressure longer. Ukraine needs the ability to hit Russian missile launchers in places such as Bryansk and Kursk. Kyiv can do it but needs foreign political will: allowing its drone-mounted Starlink terminals, which provide satellite internet, to work in Russian airspace is one possibility. But, on the upside, more long-term options for sustainable air defences are on the table, including Freyja, European defence systems such as the SAMP/T, and the US increasing its own production. Once again, it is a battle to outlast Russia’s attempts to overwhelm the Ukrainian people, and so far, those attempts have failed.