Active Management and Geopolitics Define the Next Emerging Markets Growth Cycle

While short-term macroeconomic headlines frequently dominate public discourse surrounding developing economies, the long-term investment thesis for Emerging Markets (EM) remains anchored in powerful, slow-moving structural shifts. To cut through transient market noise and evaluate these fundamental trends, specialist boutique global investment manager Aubrey Capital Management and Latin American financial services leader LarrainVial hosted a high-level investment seminar on Wednesday, 17 June 2026, at the historic Carpenters’ Hall in London. Titled “Navigating Emerging Markets: The Next Growth Cycle,” the seminar brought together more than 100 prominent investment professionals, economists, asset managers, and wealth managers. Chaired by financial journalist Natalie Kenway and moderated by Merryn Somerset Webb, editor-at-large for UK wealth at Bloomberg, the forum examined how shifting global power structures and technical innovation are redrawing the EM opportunity map. The AI Index Distortion and the Active Imperative A major focal point of the seminar centered on a structural distortion occurring within mainstream emerging market indices. Driven by the global explosion of artificial intelligence, a select group of hardware and technology manufacturing stocks has heavily skewed index weights. Andrew Dalrymple, founder and investment manager at Aubrey Capital Management, detailed how this AI-related technology boom has significantly increased index concentration, particularly within the markets of Taiwan and South Korea. For passive investors, this concentration introduces unintended sector risk, which the seminar participants argued strengthens the fundamental case for active, research-driven portfolio management. Despite these index distortions, Dalrymple reiterated that core structural growth drivers—including favorable demographics, rapid urbanization, rising incomes, and middle-class expansion—continue to power underlying corporate earnings across developing nations. Regional Realignments: Commodities, Reforms, and Global Contenders Shifting the focus to regional asset allocations, Jose Manuel Silva, chief investment officer at LarrainVial Asset Management, presented a compelling outlook for Latin America. Silva highlighted that the region is entering an attractive operational cycle characterized by: - Compelling equity valuations across core commercial sectors. - Stabilizing political and economic conditions alongside vital structural reforms. - A rapidly expanding role as a critical global supplier of agricultural goods, energy infrastructure, and vital industrial commodities. Simultaneously, Hlelo (Lo) Giyose, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Management, introduced the “Flying Geese” theory of economic development to describe how corporate leaders emerge across Asia, Latin America, and South Africa. Giyose explained that successful domestic enterprises frequently establish dominant market shares at home before scaling borders to evolve into globally competitive, multi-national businesses. Identifying these future international champions before they achieve global scale represents one of the most compelling mandates for long-term alpha generation. Integrating Multipolar Geopolitics into Asset Management The formal presentations concluded with a keynote address by Nicholas Hopton, director general of the Middle East Association and former UK Ambassador to Iran, Libya, Qatar, and Yemen. Hopton mapped out the return of Great Power politics, the decline of unipolarity, and the emergence of a highly fragmented, multipolar international order. For modern fintech platforms and global wealth managers, Hopton emphasized that understanding fluid geopolitical realignments is no longer a peripheral exercise. It must be integrated directly into quantitative risk frameworks alongside conventional economic inputs to accurately protect cross-border capital. “Too often, discussions about Emerging Markets focus on short-term headlines rather than the structural trends,” observed Andrew Ward, CEO at Aubrey Capital Management. “The quality of the discussions reinforce our belief that active, research-driven investing remains essential in identifying opportunities across an increasingly complex global landscape.” The alliance between the two hosting institutions combines distinct, cross-border expertise. Founded in 2006, employee-owned Aubrey Capital Management handles $1.2billion in client assets across growth equity, conviction, and emerging market strategies from its Edinburgh and London hubs. Meanwhile, Santiago-headquartered LarrainVial, established in 1934, commands over $10billion USD in assets under management and stands as one of only five entities in Latin America to hold an elite Standard & Poor’s AMP-1 asset management rating. As the late-2026 fiscal cycle unfolds, navigating this complex landscape will increasingly depend on the precise, benchmark-agnostic research championed by these specialized managers.