Super Boy. They anticipate a lull in the rains in the affected areas, but the relief will not last long: "We will have problems again"
Amid the concern about the advance of water and the evacuation of thousands of cattle from the islands of Paraná, meteorologists predict a decrease in rainfall for approximately one week
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Amid the concern about the rise of the Paraná River and the difficulties faced by cattle producers in removing thousands of livestock from the islands, forecasts anticipate a decrease in rains in the coming days, which could provide temporary relief to the affected areas. However, specialists warn that this improvement will be short-lived, as rainfall and storms will return to the region in mid or late next week. Although a stabilization of river levels is expected, this does not mean that the water will immediately recede nor that the risk of new floods is over.
Climatologist Leonardo De Benedictis explained that rainfall will begin to decrease in southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay, and northeastern Argentina, three regions that influence the flow of rivers in Mesopotamia. According to him, this Thursday will be the last day with some significant rains before an improvement that will extend for approximately one week. "Today is the last day with some significant rains and after that it eases considerably in the coming days," he indicated. However, he clarified that this situation should not be interpreted as the end of the complications. "It does not mean that it's over, it's already passed, and there will be no more river flooding," he warned.
De Benedictis indicated that, as a consequence of the decrease in rainfall, river levels could stop increasing for some days, although this will also depend on the management of upstream gates. "The river level due to rain these days should become more stable, not continue to grow, nor decrease, but not continue to grow," he specified. However, he stressed that this is a temporary improvement. "That is only for one week. After that, starting next week, the rains will return and we will surely have problems again," he stated. According to his forecast, the new rainfall and storms would arrive on Thursday or Friday of next week.
For his part, climatologist Germán Heinzenknecht agreed that there will be a pause in the most intense rainfall in northeastern Argentina, especially in Misiones, one of the provinces that received significant water accumulation in recent weeks. According to him, in the first half of October, almost 300 millimeters of rain were recorded in that province, an amount that contributed to increasing the pressure on the flows of the rivers in the region. "There is a pause in excessive rains in Misiones, a little less pressure on the flows of the Mesopotamian rivers," he noted.
The specialist explained that although the El Niño phenomenon continues with great intensity, for the moment regional conditions are moderating the development of extreme rainfall in much of the country. "The El Niño phenomenon remains very intense, but for the moment the regional scale plays a moderating role in rainfall events," he stated.
In this sense, he indicated that the main problems linked to water excesses are currently concentrated in the north of Mesopotamia and in the river load. Outside that region, he mentioned some sectors of central-western Buenos Aires, where the soils already show a high accumulation of moisture and, therefore, are more exposed to new rainfall. Beyond the situation in the Littoral, the specialists anticipate that rainfall will continue in other regions of the country for the coming days, although with some temporary improvements.
Heinzenknecht noted that for now, gray weather will continue to predominate, but during the weekend there could be a greater presence of the sun. From Monday, an increase in temperatures is expected and a new period of instability, with rains that would extend between Wednesday and Friday. "For now, no out-of-place events in terms of volume are foreseen. The most important centers are moving to the west, where there is greater receptive capacity, which would be good," he explained.
De Benedictis, meanwhile, indicated that in the central region of the country, humidity, drizzle, and some rain will continue this Thursday and Friday. Then an improvement is expected between Saturday and Monday, before the arrival of a new cold front. "From Tuesday of next week there will be another cold front that will advance and will cause rains and storms in the central zone," he noted. According to him, the rainfall would extend between Tuesday and Thursday, as the system advances through the center of the national territory.
The forecasts arrive at a time of special concern for cattle producers who have livestock in the islands of Paraná, facing Victoria, Entre RÃos. There, the work to remove animals has accelerated due to the fear that the advance of water will complicate the transports.
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