Presidential 2027: how is the rise of Marine Le Pen in polls explained, particularly in the second round?

Presidential 2027: how is the progression of Marine Le Pen in the polls explained, especially in the second round? ANALYSIS - Rising in the older electorate in the first round, the RN candidate is in a very favorable position for the second, according to the analysis of surveys conducted over the past eight months by the Toluna Harris Interactive institute. Passer la publicitéJean-Daniel Lévy is the director of the Politics & Opinion department and delegated director of the Toluna France-Harris Interactive institute. Between April and October 2026, Marine Le Pen gained three points of voting intention in the first round (from 32 to 35%) over the eight successive waves of the Toluna Harris Interactive barometer conducted for RTL and M6, and between four and eight points in each of the second-round duels tested, against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Gabriel Attal. The notable fact is less about her score than about the nature of her vote: an intact base, an electorate that is broadening without changing convictions, and motivations that move from adherence to credibility. A progression in the older electorate in the first round In the first round, voting intentions in favor of Marine Le Pen are at a high level: from 31% to 35%, with a rise between the end of May and the beginning of July, at the time of the court's decision allowing her to announce her candidacy for the presidential election, and then... Jacques JAM The current gabegie and the powerlessness of the center bloc, not to mention the mediocrity of the traditional right Proud to be French Don't sell the bear's skin... But we hope SALVATORE ALESSANDRELLO I was in Brest this afternoon in the city center (Siam street), at my optician's... the city center is "sad"... shop windows boarded up, tags everywhere, the police station protected by containers... the RN was less than 10% in Brest 10 years ago... it will be in first place in the first round