Nigeria faces fresh food supply squeeze as northern harvest outlook weakens

Nigeria’s food-security outlook could come under renewed pressure as the 2026 harvest approaches, with reduced cultivation, insecurity, high input costs and climate variability threatening the volume of staples expected from northern Nigeria. The development could prolong pressure on food prices and household purchasing power if the expected harvest fails to generate sufficient supplies to replenish markets after the lean season. The United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) has projected Nigeria’s 2026/27 rice production at 8.3 million tonnes, representing a six percent decline from 8.8 million tonnes in 2025/26. Rice cultivation is also forecast to fall seven percent to 4.2 million hectares. The pressure is not limited to rice. FAS projects Nigeria’s maize production at 10.9 million tonnes in 2026/27, five percent below the previous year, with harvested area expected to decline by eight percent to 4.8 million hectares. It attributed the maize outlook largely to high input costs and declining farmgate prices. The agency also forecasts that Nigeria’s wheat output will remain extremely small relative to domestic requirements. Local production is projected at only 140,000 tonnes in 2026/27, while wheat imports are expected to rise to 7.2 million tonnes to meet consumption estimated at 6.8 million tonnes. For a country increasingly dependent on northern production to supply its major food markets, the projections raise concerns about the ability of the 2026 harvest to deliver a substantial reduction in food prices. Ubale Sani, an agricultural extensionist and researcher in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Bayero University, Kano, said the performance of northern agriculture would remain critical to Nigeria’s food-security prospects because the region’s production is being constrained by a combination of insecurity, high production costs, inadequate infrastructure and climate variability. Sani’s assessment of the northern rice sector points to structural constraints that extend beyond the amount of land available for cultivation. High input prices, poor rural infrastructure and unreliable irrigation systems are limiting farmers’ capacity to raise output and close Nigeria’s food-production gap. The concerns come against recent claims by Ahmed Maiyaki, Kaduna State Commissioner for Information and Culture, that the state government has recovered more than 500,000 hectares of farmland previously controlled by bandits. Maiyaki disclosed the figure during the annual retreat of the Kano Correspondents’ Chapel in Kaduna, saying the recovery had enabled farmers who had abandoned their farms because of insecurity to return to cultivation. He said the recovery was achieved through a combination of security operations, community-based initiatives, early-warning systems and engagement with traditional and religious leaders. According to him, farmers who had been unable to access their fields for years had returned to cultivation, particularly in areas including Birnin Gwari, Chikun and Kachia. Maiyaki also said the Kaduna government distributed 500 trucks of fertiliser to more than 150,000 smallholder farmers during the 2026 farming season. The state government separately confirmed the distribution of 500 trucks of fertiliser and tractors to 150,000 farmers across its 23 local government areas. The Kaduna development suggests that restoring access to farmland can expand the area available for cultivation. However, agricultural experts say access to land alone may not translate into higher food production where farmers continue to face expensive fertiliser, fuel, labour, transportation and irrigation. The wider food-security situation in northern Nigeria remains fragile. FEWS NET has reported that sustained insecurity and rising input costs are driving Crisis-level food-security outcomes across northern Nigeria, with violence disrupting livelihoods, markets and agricultural activities. It identified states including Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Kwara, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto and Zamfara among areas affected by insecurity and displacement. In parts of the North-East, the consequences are more severe, with restricted movement preventing some households from accessing farms, markets and other sources of livelihood. This means that even where farmland is technically available, farmers may still be unable to cultivate at scale if they cannot safely reach their fields, obtain inputs or move harvested crops to markets. Climate conditions are adding to the uncertainty. Farmers across northern states have had to contend with irregular rainfall, dry spells and high temperatures, while agricultural authorities have warned against premature planting following false or early rainfall. Such weather disruptions can increase the risk of crop failure and make farmers more cautious about investing in costly inputs. The cost of production is another major constraint. FAS reported that the price of a 50-kilogram bag of fertiliser rose by about 50 percent between the previous planting seasons, while the cost of herbicides, fuel and labour also increased substantially. The resulting price-cost squeeze has reduced farmers’ ability to expand cultivation. For maize farmers, the situation is complicated by declining farmgate prices. FAS said maize prices had fallen sharply from their previous highs, leaving producers caught between elevated production expenses and weaker returns. The implications extend beyond farm households. A weaker northern harvest could reduce supplies reaching major grain markets, increase competition among millers and processors and place additional pressure on food prices, particularly if demand continues to rise. Nigeria’s wheat position illustrates the wider vulnerability of the food system. FAS expects domestic wheat production of only 140,000 tonnes against imports of 7.2 million tonnes, reflecting the country’s continued dependence on external supplies for bread, noodles, pasta and other flour-based foods. The pressure is also coming at a time when Nigeria’s population and urban food demand continue to grow. FAS expects rice consumption to rise to nine million tonnes in 2026/27, even as domestic production falls to 8.3 million tonnes, leaving imports to help bridge the gap. The emerging picture therefore presents a paradox for the 2026 farming season: more farmland may be returning to production in some areas, yet national output can still weaken if productivity, security, input affordability and market access do not improve simultaneously. For northern Nigeria, where millions of smallholder farmers depend on seasonal agriculture, the outcome of the harvest will depend not only on how much land is cultivated but also on how much food is ultimately produced per hectare and successfully transported to consumers. Sani said addressing these structural constraints would be crucial to unlocking the region’s agricultural potential and narrowing Nigeria’s food-production deficit. The federal and state governments have expanded agricultural interventions, including fertiliser distribution and programmes targeting rice, sorghum, millet, maize, wheat and soybeans. But the 2026 harvest will provide a more practical test of those interventions: whether increased public spending and restored access to farmland can translate into higher yields, lower production costs and larger volumes of food reaching Nigerian markets. Without corresponding improvements in security, irrigation, rural roads, storage, input affordability and market access, the recovery of farmland alone may not be enough to reverse the food-supply pressures facing the country. Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date Open In Whatsapp