Belarus potash deal may not address farmers’ biggest fertilizer concerns

There are still logistical challenges for fertilizer and at least one major “sleeper issue” to consider. On September 21, President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that his administration was negotiating a “massive” deal to buy potash from Belarus, claiming farmers would pay significantly less than they currently do for Canadian supply. As farmers face increasing fertilizer prices heading into the 2027 growing season, any price cuts are welcome, but fertilizer market analysts say a potash deal may not only be fraught with logistical challenges but could also fail to address larger concerns in the fertilizer market. An August article from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign’s farmdoc daily reported Illinois fertilizer prices at $915.50 per ton for anhydrous, a source of nitrogen, 16 percent higher than 2025; and diammonium phosphate at $912.22 per ton, 7 percent higher than 2025. Potash prices remained relatively steady at around $490 to $505 per ton. According to the article, prices for nitrogen and phosphorus products have seen sharp increases over the past two years, largely due to the Iran conflict. Veronica Nigh, chief economist at The Fertilizer Institute, said in an interview with AGDAILY that, overall, international politics and trade continue to shape an uncertain U.S. fertilizer market, especially for nitrogen and phosphate. “We’re continuing to face a market that’s full of uncertainty, mostly as a result of a lot of international unknowns,” Nigh said. “The Strait of Hormuz closure continues to really be providing a lot of overhead on the market, particularly as it relates to nitrogen and phosphate.” Nigh explained that while the nitrogen market has seen some relief from Chinese urea exports over the summer, a lack of sulfur continues to put pressure on the phosphate market, primarily due to the Strait of Hormuz closure combined with a lack of products from Russia. “Phosphate producers globally are struggling to get sulfur, which is adding a lot of pressure to phosphate prices and leading to curtailment globally, including here in the U.S,” Nigh said. “We’re going into the fall worried about the results for prices, and what that means for wholesale producers and what that means for our growers.” Sulfur is a primary input for phosphate fertilizer production, and Nigh described it as a sleeper issue that could create challenges for the fertilizer market for months or even years to come. “It’s a fertilizer in and of itself, but it is really the underpinning input to phosphate production,” Nigh said. “Without the ability to secure sulfur for U.S. phosphate producers, they don’t have the ability to produce products at the volumes that they’d like, and globally, phosphate producers are going to be constrained.” As for potash, there are only three large global exporters: Canada, Russia, and Belarus. While Belarus is a major potash producer, Canada has served as a reliable supplier for years, and Nigh doesn’t expect that to change anytime soon. “The potash market looks pretty good, quite honestly,” Nigh said. “Canada has been a reliable supplier for a very long time, and production there has been steady and strong. There’s no expectation that will change any time soon.” Nigh said that it’s always helpful to have additional supplies and suppliers — the U.S. market requires about 11 million to 14 million tons of potash annually. While Belarus has a capacity of about 15 million tons of potash, the country is already exporting to a reliable customer base, leaving limited capacity for additional product to the U.S. Additionally, Nigh said the sheer distance between Belarus and the U.S., combined with European sanctions, would result in additional transportation costs. “Of course, they’re quite a lot further from us than in Canada, and as a result of the sanctions that Europe has on them, that transportation route has gotten even longer, and it makes that product not all that competitive in the U.S. market because of all the additional transportation cost,” Nigh said. Logistically, transporting Belarusian potash, a corrosive material that requires dedicated shipping containers, would require extensive additional infrastructure to reach American growers. While Canadian potash is transported by rail via dedicated rail cars, shipping from Belarus would look very different. “If we’re going to start bringing in a lot of products from Belarus, that product’s going to be coming in big volumes on ships into New Orleans, and then it’s going be coming in upriver on barge, and then it’s going to have to make its way to out to the Corn Belt and other growing regions on rail cars,” Nigh said. “That’s a lot of additional capital and resources that don’t exist today in that volume to move that kind of product.” While lowering overall input costs is helpful, Nigh emphasized that potash isn’t a major source of concern for growers, but rather nitrogen and phosphate. “If you ask a grower what portion of the fertilizer bill they’ve been most concerned about, I don’t think they would necessarily say their potash needs are where they have the most concern,” Nigh said. “Every little bit helps, but when we’re looking at the total bill, it’s probably nitrogen and phosphate where most folks would say that they’re feeling the larger constraint.” Increasing potash supply doesn’t resolve nitrogen prices or sulfur-related phosphate production constraints. According to Nigh, new nitrogen or ammonia plants take an average of three to five years to build after obtaining permits, costing around $3 billion to 5 billion, while new phosphate mines take about 10 years to build, costing multiple billions. “We are eager for policy solutions that bring more production of nitrogen and phosphorus to the United States,” Nigh said. “The measures are complicated, but they deserve to be discussed and resolved not only for fertilizer producers, but for the growers that rely on those products.” For farmers looking ahead to the 2027 growing season, Nigh recommended watching for international announcements, particularly any resolution with Russia and China’s fertilizer export policies regarding phosphates and urea, but especially any developments involving the Strait of Hormuz. “So much of what happens and the price that growers end up paying is dominated by what’s going on in places that aren’t the United States,” Nigh said. “The thing that I would keep an eye on more than anything would be any announcements of lasting agreement on the ability for vessels to peacefully pass through the Strait of Hormuz.” The University of Illinois farmdoc daily also recommended that growers reassess fall fertilizer applications, consider shifting applications to spring, use soil testing, and consider the maximum return to nitrogen (MRTN) recommendations to help manage fertilizer costs and price risk.