ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 3, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: - Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed late on July 3 that Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka, contrary to all available evidence of the true extent of Russian advances in the city. - Putin likely staged the meeting with his commanders late on July 3 at least in part to influence Western media coverage of the war into the weekend, particularly the July 4 holiday in the United States. - The United States reportedly warned Poland that Russia is considering kinetic provocations against Poland and other NATO states. - Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating sharply fell in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline. - The Russian government continues efforts to increase domestic fuel supplies amid intensifying gasoline shortages across Russia. - Unknown actors reportedly detonated an explosive against a car carrying members of the Rylsk Raion, Kursk Oblast administration on July 3. - Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on July 3. - Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a long-range strike against Russian energy infrastructure in Belgorod Oblast. Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 guided aircraft missiles and 105 drones against Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAM Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here. To suggest a correction or clarification, write to us here You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter You can also highlight the text and press Ctrl + Enter