Sugarbread or whip: How far does Trump go to force Zelenskyy into a deal?

The American peace efforts will become more dynamic again before the midterm elections. On Tuesday, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff welcomed the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Oslo, and on Wednesday morning, he had already landed in St. Petersburg. The Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriyev received him at Pulkowo airport, according to Russian state media. Putin's foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov confirmed that the Kremlin chief received Witkoff in the Konstantin Palace and that the meeting had been arranged days earlier. The main topic was a peace solution for the Ukraine war, which has lasted over four and a half years. However, Ushakov tempered the expectations. The Russian side did not know if there would be an agreement today, but the talks on the Ukraine conflict were the core of the contacts. Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, who is also involved in the negotiations, is supposed to be connected via video to the talks according to a US government official. According to the Moscow Times, he could not undertake the trip to Russia due to a flu. "Significant progress" in Oslo It is unclear exactly what Witkoff has with him. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said after the meeting in Oslo that Trump's associate wanted to present to the Russians the proposals "developed by European and American colleagues." This could "possibly pave the way for a meeting at the level of heads of state and government." According to the American portal Axios, Witkoff is supposed to hand Putin an updated plan to end the war, and according to Politico, he also wants to offer him direct talks with Trump and Zelenskyy. Trump's new peace plan for Ukraine: Germany to pay Ukraine aid: How the EU wants to raise the missing 70 billion euros A US government official spoke of "very productive and constructive discussions" in Oslo. "Ukraine brought new ideas and proposals that were discussed in detail." "Significant progress" was made. Finnish President Alexander Stubb spoke of a "good day for peace." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also described the meeting positively, saying there was nothing unexpected or surprising. Zelenskyy himself said he spoke about "Article-5-like" security guarantees, drawing on NATO's assistance clause. He hopes that Witkoff will bring the proposals of Ukraine and Europe to Russia and then move to a trilateral meeting of heads of state "to clarify the issues that only heads of state can clarify." Trump: "You don't have to be in the same room" However, Trump himself questioned this idea shortly thereafter. When asked about a possible trilateral meeting between Zelenskyy, Putin and his associates, he said in Washington: "You don't have to be in the same room. I can probably do it differently. It is hard for them to be in the same room. I don't care how it is done." At the same time, the US President increased pressure on Kyiv. "We want Zelenskyy to make a deal," he said in the Oval Office. "We have given Ukraine a lot. We have received absolutely nothing back - except suffering, death, and enormous financial losses." Without an agreement, "it will turn out very badly." Putin, in turn, has long avoided a meeting with Zelenskyy. Instead, the Russian president reportedly seeks a meeting with Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen in mid-November - without Ukraine or Europeans at the table. Trump appeared open to this. Zelenskyy, however, made it clear that talks about the future of his country are "only acceptable if we are at the negotiating table." Foreign Minister Andrij Sybiha warned that such a trilateral meeting would only "encourage Putin to continue this war." Sweetmeat and Whip The recent American peace mission takes place against the backdrop of highly strained relations between Kyiv and Washington. Trump had suspended planned sanctions against Russia and instead concluded an agreement on diesel supplies with Moscow. The White House now hopes that Putin will show more willingness to compromise after these gestures. The Ukrainian leadership, in turn, accused the US of withholding intelligence information, delaying the delivery of - paid for in part by allies - Patriot missiles, and curbing Starlink and Starshield. Washington denies this. Kushner also reaffirmed Trump's demand in Oslo that Ukraine should stop its attacks on Russian oil refineries, according to Axios citing an informed source. Nevertheless: Zelenskyy thanked the US in Oslo for rejoining early warnings about Russian attacks. "We are grateful that the intelligence work is working." Negotiations in the Konstantin Palace: Vladimir Putin (l.) and his advisor Yuri Ushakov (3rd-l.) with US special envoy Steve Witkoff (2nd-r.) and Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriyev (r.) © Kristina Solovyova/imago Ukrainian media is skeptical. It is said in an analysis that Trump has hardly any strong levers against the Kremlin that would not lead to a nuclear escalation, but has great interest in economic cooperation with Russia. In contrast, the US President has both: the "whip" in the form of intelligence data, weapons, and Starlink, and the "sweetmeat" of security guarantees and reconstruction funds. The "Trump Plan" negotiated after the Anchorage summit and published last November, which provided for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas among other things, failed against Zelenskyy's no - also because Trump did not use the whip against resistance in his own party. Whether the old conditions still apply or have been adjusted is open. The fact that Zelenskyy and the EU foreign representative Kaja Kallas accuse the US of forcing Ukraine into "capitulation" suggests that the offer from the Ukrainian side will continue to be unacceptable. Zelenskyy's Bet on the Midterms Two questions are therefore decisive. Will Zelenskyy give in to the formula of "guarantees and economic aid against concessions"? And if not - will Trump use the whip? There are no signs of a shift in direction in Kyiv so far. The Ukrainian leadership apparently is counting on Trump leaving the elections in early November and then having something else to do than pressuring Ukraine. Whether this calculation will pay off is questionable. Ukraine's air defense suffers from an acute ammunition shortage, Russia is using new types of missile drones, the damage to the economy is enormous, and there is a bleak mood among the Ukrainian population before winter. Ukraine War: Putin wants a summit with Trump and Xi - Zelenskyy complains about pressure for capitulation "The Western de-escalation approach is wrong": Chodorkovsky's plan for a different Russia Doubts also arise about the reliability of European Ukraine aid in light of domestic political crises and possible government changes in important EU capitals. This is faced with a slowed Russian offensive and Ukrainian advances on individual front sections. In Ukraine, voices are growing louder, who at least find parts of the Trump plan acceptable because a long war will let the war-weary country bleed finally and lead to even worse conditions in the end. After his talks in Russia, Witkoff is supposed to return to Oslo to inform the Europeans. Your opinion is important to us. Send us your feedback on this article: briefe@berliner-zeitung.de