Iran War: Accelerating Economic Damage Creates Urgency on Strait of Hormuz Closure; Shambolic US Assault Preparations Continue; Iran Demands Recognition of Sovereignity Over Strait; Houthis Set to Strangle Red Sea Traffic if US Makes Ground Attack

[Today’s Iran war post is launching before complete and is likely to seem skeletal because personal long war preparations. I expect it to be done by 8:30 EDT] The Trump Administration and Iranian officials and sources (save Iran’s always-measured Foreign Minister Araghchi1) have been making even more strident statement at each other about purported negotiations and the need for the other side to effectively capitulate. But the US’ statements are transparently desperate, as the BBC live blog header shows: The underlying dynamic is that Trump has promised to Do Something Extremely Big and Bad to Iran if Iran does not knuckle under by his late Friday new deadline. And Iran’s response was not merely defiant. It added a monster new demand in its own list of requirements for ending the war: having its control over the Strait recognized as sovereign. Iran officialy published demands MAGA is so tired of winning so much 😭😂🤣 pic.twitter.com/ixtWj2ueg1 — Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) March 25, 2026 Trump’s propensity has if anything been to jump the gun a bit on execution of his treats, or TACO. As we will recap soon, both Larry Johnson and conflict maven Robert Pape in separate talks with Daniel Davis see the US as moving assets for a Special Forces ground assault. Pape thinks it will come later given that not all units being mustered will be in theater by Friday. Johnson provides granular evidence, such as Trump cancelling scheduled public appearances, that suggest an after-markets-close launch. Johnson squares the circle of “What about the forces en route?” by speculating that the US is planning two operations, so the later group will handle the second one. The reason for urgency is the relentless unforgiving economic forces the US set in motion by the unprovoked US/Israel attack on Iran. Keep in mind the US is the culpable party: it had the means to check Israel and instead joined enthusiastically. Richard Pape points in his talk (video embedded after the Johnson one) out that the oil squeeze is set to became more acute very soon. Tankers have still been delivering their cargoes. That is tailing off and that buffer will run dry within a few weeks. On top of that, Almayeeden on March 22 pointed out that the last LNG shipments from the Middle East were expected to reach their destinations within ten days, as in around April 1 at the latest. Add to that the real-economy forces already in motion. We included this tweet in an earlier post. Please click through to read in full: Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks. The planting clock. Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available… pic.twitter.com/eCjCAHcH0m — Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 19, 2026 And a fresh sighting of the state of play: Every bypass route is maxed out. Every buffer is gone. Every scenario has expired. Saudi East-West pipeline: FULL ✅ UAE Habshan-Fujairah: FULL ✅ Hormuz tanker traffic: ZERO ✅ SPR covering 2.5M of 11M gap: NOT ENOUGH ✅ 10.98 million barrels per day — OFFLINE. We are now in the…— Qasem Al-Ali (@AlaliQasem) March 26, 2026 Hence the shriek-level stridency out of the White House. This is a must listen in terms of the crazypants, not well planned scheme underway. And that is not an exaggeration. The very first time the idea of taking Kharg Island came up, Davis in a solo talk was close to beside himself. He described the numerous impediments to a successful operation in detail, such as distance from staging grounds and the impossible logistics. Even if you land forces, they could not be sustained. Perhaps the plan is to somehow destroy the energy infrastructure, and the talk of ground forces there is a feint for a plan for strictly aerial destruction. In that initial talk, Davis also described the >6 months needed to launch an invasion, which includes planning as well as force movements and setting up logistics. In this new talk, Johnson describes the many signs that action is imminent. Even though Richard Pape in an earlier talk opined that the assault won’t come for another two weeks since as he and now mainstream media outlets point out, one MEU will not arrive until then, Johnson argues that the force assemblage points to the going after two targets, perhaps Kharg Island and Qeshm Island in the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz. I am concerned that these excellent and other analysts may be underestimating what the US and Israel could do. The US has reportedly been bombing what it thinks are the entrance areas of underground missile cities, with the intent of rendering them inaccessible and therefore useless. Israel could launch tactical nuclear weapons at those entrances, at least in northern Iran where I believe I have read that the fallout would not reach Israel. That could be executed shortly before the US ground attack with the hope of overwhelming Iranian responses. At the top, Johnson says he has confirmation that the US air tanker crash in Iraq was due to a strike by the militias and not an air mishap as the US insists. Johnson also strongly contests the claim that of a 30-hour laundry fire on the Gerald R. Ford and says it has to be the result of an attack. He similarly pooh-poohs the US denial of an Iranian claim that it downed an F-18. More key points from Johnson. From a transcript: …when you see this kind of deployment, it can only be one of two things: it’s an exercise or it’s it’s a it’s an actual mission. I don’t see this as an exercise…the fact that it looks like they’re bringing in both SEAL Team Six and Delta Force by and by themselves, those are just, you know, they’re not they’re not an assault force. They’re good at RA, you know, rescuing hostages, that kind of thing, but you know, somehow they’re getting activated, but they’re being accompanied by the 75th Rangers. And I recall in all the exercises that I scripted, when they involved either Delta or Seal Team Six, you always involved the Rangers, you know, at minimum they go in and seize an airfield, you know, and and and accompany that. And then you got the 82nd. So it looks to me like what’s happening that 5-day. So that started on March 12th. March 13 was when Trump activated the 31st MEU, the Marine Expeditionary Unit. They started setting sail. When do they arrive in theater? Friday or Saturday. Gee, that’s right at the end of that 5-day period.The 11th MEU is about a week behind. But one scenario I could see as possible because they’re bringing in multiple uh elements of the special operations air regiment. It’s not just one unit. So that tells me they’re going to have two two vectors of attack at a minimum. And the likely targets would be Kharg Island up in the northeast corner of the Persian Gulf and the Qeshm Island which is right there at the bend of the straight of Hormuz. Johnson discusses at length what a potential train wreck trying to take Qeshm Island would be. It has about 150,000 inhabitants. The US forces might be 5,000. What happens if 10,000 of the residents are armed? More from Johnson: I got a note I got a note from a friend of mine who was was in contact with somebody with Delta Force….He says… I heard from two different friends in the SOF community and that’s special operations forces that a bunch of tier one guys shipped out Thursday night for a major operation probably an island to take place by this weekend and that a lot of people were concerned the op had not been thoroughly thought through and that they’d be badly overexposed. One guy said no effort was made at a blocking force. I and he said I hope they send a priest along who can who can give last rites, hich is not the kind of talk you usually hear from those types. I have not seen this sourced elsewhere, but Johnson also said that if the US attacks Kharg Island, Iran has vowed it will mine not just the Strait of Hormuz but the entire Persian Gulf. Now to Robert Pape. He warns that his work on escalation identifies four levels, and that when you cross into the third, which the US looks set to do, the pattern is that locks the belligerent into going all the way to the top. He points out that despite the unpopularity of the war, Trump still has a core of support that will not go anywhere of roughly 30%. He is particularly concerned that the US taking meaningful casualties will briefly increase US support for the conflict, thus stoking the tendency to keep escalating. Contrast these two sober assessments with not “Russia is running out of missiles” but “Putin is dying of cancer” level stoking of the idea that the US military would of course prevail against Iran without even breaking much of a sweat. The fact that one ran in the Financial Times and the other Bloomberg suggests how hard this Administration is selling hopium to investor and managed to find cooperative and/or credulous editors and writers at each outlet. Due to already being well behind schedule, I am treating these articles far more briefly than they deserve. I hope reader will access them and add to the ridicule in comments. The first is at the Financial Times, How a US assault on Kharg Island could unfold. Even though it does eventually quote some experts that mention how this operation could be risky and hard, that not only comes late but gets comparatively few words compared to the wild bravura that opens the piece: The American troops approach Kharg Island, flying low on tilt-rotor aircraft and helicopters. Upon landing, they fan out over the vital oil export hub, all under Iranian fire. The troops stick close to the island’s oil infrastructure for cover, confronting the Iranian regime with an extraordinary dilemma: destroy the oil facilities to get at them? Or hold back, allowing Washington to take control of the country’s economic backbone? Oh, so the Iranians will let fragile helicopters land and not use FPV drones to hunt any soldiers that do make it safely to the ground, a technique well-honed in the Ukraine war? The cautionary notes early in the article are not very cautious: “Introducing ground troops is clearly a riskier operation to our own forces,” said Karen Gibson, former director of intelligence for US Central Command, which oversees American military operations in the Middle East. Though the US is capable of taking the island militarily, she said, the challenge is “not just seizing the island . . . it’s holding it under continued pressure”. Shortly thereafter: As it weighs options, the Pentagon is set to deploy thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne, the army’s elite paratrooper division. They are designed to deploy within 18 hours. It is also sending two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) to the region, each with about 2,200 marines…. Each MEU has an infantry battalion, air combat troops and a combat logistics battalion. Both the USS Tripoli and USS Boxer are carrying V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft. The USS Boxer also has stealth F-35 fighter jets and landing craft to launch from its well deck that could carry troops and equipment to shore. One MEU would be enough to take and hold the island, according to former US military officials. “This is a classic Marine operation,” said Gibson. “This is the reason the Marines exist.” Again, please read the article in full and have at it. The second is from Bloomberg, What It Would Take to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Remarkably, the full article is archived (Bloomberg of late has been allowing only partial archives), suggesting the publication very much wanted it read. It is in “assume a can opener” mode, as in finessing the issue of how the US (and any seaman-death-loving allies) can begin to muster enough ships that will stay not sunk as the Iranian throw all sorts of fire at them. Admittedly they try to finesse the biggest part of “assume a can opener” that the war ends (as in does not become a long war) and the unarticulated assumption that Iran is not in much of a position to impede escorts: A return to normal traffic through the strait is unlikely while war is raging. And once the conflict eventually abates, it’s unclear how soon sailings might resume and at what level. Merely the threat of Iranian attacks has left most ship operators unwilling to brave the journey since the US and Israel began to bombard Iran on Feb. 28. Their fear won’t be entirely dispelled once the fighting dies down, or even if there’s a formal ceasefire. Some form of naval escort is likely to be required at first, and such an operation presents a host of risks and limitations. More “assume a can opener”: Even after the fighting ends, ship owners lacking an Iranian guarantee of safe passage would likely still want some kind of military protection. Naval escorts could provide the necessary assurance. If that eventually restores a substantial level of traffic, it could alleviate some of the supply disruption and cool global energy prices that have soared since the conflict broke out. Earth to buyers of goods from the Gulf: if Iran survives this war, you will pay a toll. Wrap your minds around the emerging reality. But the article plays bigly on the cognitive bias called the precision, where more detail, even if irrelevant, makes a presentation seem more accurate. It also gives an incomplete-enough-to-be-inaccurate take on the issue of Iranian tolls: The vast majority of ship operators are either unwilling or unable to pay Iran a toll, so their only alternative is to wait until the conflict subsides. Three ship or cargo operators interviewed by Bloomberg News said they would not make a Hormuz run under any circumstances while the war was still raging. The problem is that the premise that it would be ship operators would pay tolls is bogus. This is admittedly the likely state of play for vessels stuck in the Strait. A regularized charge would be the financial obligation of the party buying the cargo, be it oil or bulk goods, even if mechanically those funds were somehow conveyed to the ship operator who they paid the toll on behalf of the buyer. This Hindustan Times update adds to the fact of the Iranian threat to go after Red Sea shipping via choking the Bab-el-Mandab strait. It describes in detail how Ansarallah has demonstrated that this sort of interference is well within its capabilities: Hindustan Times describes how the choice of the successor to Iran security chief Ali Larijani was effectively forced on President Pezeshkian, reflecting how the IRCG is consolidating power and increasingly in control of the government. Keep in mind that Hindustan Times generally takes an Iran-sympathetic stance. However, Pezeshkian has not covered himself with glory in the runup to the war, regularly adopting naive US-accommodating positions. Another important kinetic development is that an Israel attack on a Caspian sea shipping route used by Iran and Russia hit Russian port operations, eliciting strong words from both Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and Putin himself. On the economic front, to add to the comments at the top, Asian nations are coming under more pressure. While Japan is believed to be better buffered than nearly all the rest, we posted tweets from Japan that posited that a plastics shortage could still kick in soon and have dire consequences for food distribution. The talk below depicts the Philippines, Thailand and even Australia as particularly exposed, with each at risk of running out of jet fuel by the end of April. This segment also notes, as not enough media outlets have done, the significance of Iran escalating its demands via its five point reply to the purported 15 point US proposal (if you listen to the Hindustan Times segment on the Caspian Sea, you can hear Peskov pointing out how the information about the 15 points is not reliable, particularly in light of the US being reported as ready to present varying-numbers-of-points proposals to Russia in the Ukraine conflict). The Singapore-based expert opines that this is just an ask and China and Russia would not like Iran winding up in the position. The blindness astonishes me. Iran is in position now, save the formal recognition part. Possession is 9/10th of the law. I am too far behind schedule and have to stop now. See you tomorrow! ____ 1 Speaking of Araghchi, I have not checked the Reuters story, but tweets that cite MSM outlets are typically reliable: Big Breaking: "Israel wanted to assassinate Iran's Foreign Minister Aragchi and speaker Ghalibaf. It had coordinates of their movements. Pakistan intelligence got the information about Israeli plans. Pakistan informed US that if Israel kills Abbas Aragchi and Ghalibaf, there… — South Asia Index (@SouthAsiaIndex) March 26, 2026 A bit late but I found this thread about who is behind that strange awful “terror_alarm” account that put the bounty on Professor Marandi. https://x.com/certifiedbgymen/status/2035422883422277688 mash potato update: @realDonaldTrump 1h NATO NATIONS HAVE DONE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO HELP WITH THE LUNATIC NATION, NOW MILITARILY DECIMATED, OF IRAN. THE U.S.A. NEEDS NOTHING FROM NATO, BUT “NEVER FORGET” THIS VERY IMPORTANT POINT IN TIME! President DONALD J. TRUMP —– @realDonaldTrump 43mins ago The Iranian negotiators are very different and “strange.” They are “begging” us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only “looking at our proposal.” WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty! President DJT —— Trivial but the widespread misuse of “decimated” annoys me. Although maybe he does really mean 1/10 of the Iranian capability has been destroyed :) How about quantum leap, meaning large jump, where “quantum” actually is very small? I think the more important point about “quantum leaps” is there instantaneous and indivisibile nature: a quantum leap is a sudden, non-linear state change with no intermediate states in between. Doesn’t smell real to me. Where is the “ThaNk you for attenTIon To this Matter!”? Musical interlude: https://youtu.be/S082-2jsRDY?si=sAxYpYSOQLp9VUMw I’VE GONE STARK RAVING MAD, COMPLETELY BONKERS IF YOU WILL-OFF THE DEEP END. ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER HAS BEEN SLOW IN COMING, MANY SAY ITS THE SLOWEST RESPONSE TO A DESPERATE PLEA EVER! President DONALD J. TRUMP My understanding is that “decimate” has come to mean to destroy a large portion of, even though the historical meaning was as you say to kill 1 in 10. I know one in Thailand of a generation with early childhood memories of World War 2 who made disaster preparations early in the war. This includes stockpiling food, medicine, and having cash on hand. It’s unclear to me how many are taking similar steps with the modern information environment. Stay safe. Yes, that is EXACTLY the sort of thing I am doing. Plus toilet paper and many many trash bags. Maybe salt too. It is vital for your body, takes little space, and if you have surplus it can be used to trade for other stuff if things get worse. I have plenty. For instance, I am getting a lot of pickled products like red cabbage. Plus soy sauce, another way to get salt. Having lived through the last great TP shortage here in the US, allow me to suggest that bidets are a better option. Sure they require water (and electricity for some of the portables, but there are a variety of “squeeze” ones) but if you don’t have water then you’re probably in more trouble than just a lack of TP. Hard to go wrong with the “many many trash bags” stockpile…”buy ’em cheap, stack ’em deep, as they say. Only a man would conclude that. You have to use even more TP to dry your privates as a woman if you wash them down. And I don’t have a washing machine in my flat and I doubt laundries here would be keen about washing what would amount to adult diapers (cloth used to wipe), even assuming they stay open (detergent is distributed in plastic containers and if we have a plastics shortage that means laundries close). I will plead guilty on the “man” part, but … I never knew that I was supposed to wipe after rinsing. I mean, my dishes air-dry and all that, so….. The important things you learn on NC!!!! Look, a bidet does get you cleaner. No question. A while back, a reader long form described his approach which IIRC included very small towels, a very well-sealing small container next to the toilet, and a protocol for soaking in bleach before washing. But with no washing machine in my flat (and no communal ones, NYC style) the equation is different. ‘Friends have a special place’: Iran grants Thai tanker s Hormuz passage free of charge https://thecradle.com/articles/friends-have-a-special-place-iran-grants-thai-tanker-safe-hormuz-passage-free-of-charge I think they feel bad about the three crewmembers that died when when Iran hit a Thai-flagged cargo ship: https://thediplomat.com/2026/03/thai-flagged-cargo-vessel-hit-by-iranian-projectiles-in-strait-of-hormuz/ So this may be more an apology than a real precedent. Thailand is kinda-sorta close to the US but the country is run largely by Thai Chinese (who have been somewhat Thai-ified). And Thailand was never colonized due to having some skill at navigating among bigger powers, now the US and China. Also Thailand has a very good foreign ministry. Bidets that connect to your toilet supply line and sit unobtrusively beneath the seat are inexpensive and very easy to install. Once I got used to mine — in the first days of our never-ending pandemic — I have never gone without. A variant is standard here. Informally called bum guns. Metal hose with spray nozzle on end.. The point is to reduce toilet paper use. For women, it increases the amount you need. At my gym, the toilet stalls are hard by the dressing room. I never hear anyone using those sprays. And my gym is full of hi so Thais, hardly any women farang members. So it is not as if the almost total non-use by women is a cultural issue. Or rather, the use case for women is limited: before and after sex. After messy bathroom event. And I am in a rental. I can’t make pluming changes. Also getting everything off the web and onto several hard drives. A net attached server might be a good idea, but I have several TB’s of retired hard drives when I went to ssd’s. I’m also enlarging my archive of e books from Manybooks and the Gutenberg project. Also have home solar panels and some additional ones rigged up so I can charge a couple of camping batteries for charging tablets for reading books. I do not keep anything in the cloud (well only one service but they download their data back to me via e-mail daily). I don’t even let my iPhone synch to Apple Spyware Central. This means pretty much no apps, which is fine by me (phones are for calling and at worst photos; the computer is for the internet. If I did not have to make an exception for ride-haling, I would still have a dumb phone). But thanks for your suggesiton. Before the war started, I went looking for an optical (think DVD/blu-ray) storage option to supplement the backup of my digital files. My starting point for serious gear is usually B+H Photo/Video. I found that Verbatim has been making for a few years an archival grade disc that is supposed to be stable for centuries. It apparently uses a metal layer for the writing of the data pits instead of chemical dye activation. The writers (Ultra HD 4K External Slimline Blu-ray Writer) are about $130, a 100GB disc is about $15, and a 25GB disc is like $3. The archival grade capability uses the “M DISC” designation. I have multiple hard drive backups of my data, but got one of these Verbatim systems for an additional layer of backup protection. *UPDATE* – when looking at B+H website for a Verbatim part number (43888) for the writer, they now list the unit as discontinued and no longer sell this item. B+H still has some off-brand M-DISC burners available, but many of the B+H reviews are poor. A quick google search showed other retailers that have the Verbatim writer in stock. If this is your jam, you may want to get one before they are gone. Tape is the best backup solution, if you can afford it. at this rate, plastic widgets from China will disappear until Hormuz normalizes. just look at your cart next time you are at Mega-Lo Mart to see how dependent a first-worlder is dependent on the Clown World triangle, lol 10 PRINT mideast hydrocarbons to Asia 20 PRINT Asian widgets to USA 30 PRINT USD to Asia 40 go to 10 RUN I buy a lot of fishing gear from China. In the past month, I’ve gone on a massive shopping spree snapping up lots of tackle for loss-making prices. While shipment times to Western Europe have increased somewhat from about a week to two, prices have been lower than ever. I don’t know how long this will continue. I’ve been very much thinking about this the past two weeks or so; Even in the US, people have no idea what’s coming, if this trajectory continues. I already have so much starchy carbs, not sure what else I’d stock up on. Soup is like $4 a can now, was like $2 pre-Pandemic. I only recently learned that you can’t keep gasoline long term; it breaks down. It needs fuel stabilizer, and still has a shelf life. How about: Canned fish (tuna, salmon, sardines) Protein powders like whey protein I prefer refrigerator miso paste but have stocked up on those quasi instant miso soup kits which do have miso paste in little sleeves. Oils, you can get calories from a good olive oil Nuts and seeds Canned beans and lentils Canned mushrooms and some other treat canned or in jar stuff (hearts of palm, artichoke hearts) Dried seaweed If I were a cook I would go crazy buying canned tomatoes and tomato paste but I am not The problem here is I am in a rental with only a 2/3 American size refrigerator/freezer. When I was in Alabama, we had 2 fridges AND a full sized freezer. If I had freezer space, I would buy Frozen fruit Frozen veg (spinach freezes VERY well, if you like peas or corn or snap peas, those are good too) Raw meats Frozen shellfish Smoked fish (smoked trout freezes nicely, as does smoked salmon. I get salmon trim because cheaper). In addition, I’ve been accumulating a very large stock of cat and dog food, and not just with our pets in mind. All my neighbors have dogs and half of them have cats, and I intend to have a large stash of good will. Keeping the neighborhood sane is going to be part of the challenge. Oh, and if you have freezer space, chocolate. UHT milk. Long shelf life breads are good for about 6 months out, and there are a number of bakers who sell a wide variety. I have a 20 foot shipping container dug into the hill behind the house. I have topped up our stash with: buckets of dried beans and peas milk powder dried fruit canned veggies, meats, jams, bouillon, honey, peanut butter, milk, coffee coconut oil, olive oil, ghee ready to eat meals lots of canned tomatoes big bags of salt dried noodles and pasta, both rice and flour buckets of rice and flour maple syrup dog food medications and supplements vegetable seeds dried squash and peppers lots of dried corn and apples in gallon jars plus more that I can’t think of without going out there and looking – will do that later I have three fridges and five freezers, all full We have a well with a hand pump above the electric pump which sits deeper We have a propane generator No toilet paper – we use a bidet We have a moving solar array, but it’s grid-tied (bad) because we are in a deep valley We have an orchard and two big gardens I have been canning my frozen meat like crazy lately We have a wood stove for heat and a wood cookstove in the kitchen – we have forest right up to the house – good for wood, terrifying for fires. I expect there will be no fuel for vehicles and aircraft to fight fires this summer, and we have a super El Nino coming. I don’t sleep well. Oh, and I keep chickens I have lots of soap, bars and liquid I have sugar, but it’s for the hummingbirds, we don’t eat sugar I had bees but they all died I have neighbours who have cattle, sheep or goats, no dairy But all this won’t matter when there is no fuel for the tractors that make hay in the summer to feed these animals in the winter. There is no feed at -20 degrees. I have extra chicken feed, but not enough I’ll have to go get some this week We have a huge woodshed, full, but we’ll go get more wood this week and dump it on the ground – we don’t get much rain in the summer – everyone uses irrigation, so that will not be possible, either, so, no hay even if they had fuel There are lots of deer and we have guns, but when the shooting starts, the deer will high-tail it up higher in the mountains. Salmon are in the river, but only in October and you have to fight the bears. Point to consider, when the shooting starts, there will be few, if any, deer left within weeks. One of the duties of America’s first Federal park ranger, north of Atlanta on the Chattahoochee in 1933/34, was to reintroduce white tailed deer in to North Georgia, as they had essentially been hunted to near extinction by that time . . . I dunno – having watched how many experienced hunters shoot, I suspect that newbies out hunting will be more likely to reduce the population of newbies (and other hunters) rather than deer… @Ann: any problems with mice in the container? No, no mice. It’s all metal, and the food is all in packages that are hard plastic. The ventilation for the shipping container has metal grates over the openings. As for the rest of this place, well, I don’t call it the Hantavirus Ranch for nothin’ Deer. There are so many deer here, mule deer. They sleep in the yard. They drink the bird bath dry every night. They have their babies every June in front of the house. I come outside in the morning and they don’t move. They just stand there and look at me and the dog. I have to run after them before they will get out of the way. We have ten foot fencing around the gardens and the orchard. This place backs onto crown land. There’s nothing up there but wilderness. British Columbia is as big as California, Oregon and Washington combined. The Canadian Rockies are an hour’s drive east of me. We live in the foothills. To the west is the Cascade range. There are not enough people here to make a dent. Unless the Americans come. Great, another thought I didn’t have… I have numerous veg seeds too. As well as large sealed tubs of grains of all kinds, legumes, eating seeds, nuts. The freezers have tofu and tempeh, fruit, meat, bread. I also have ingredients for various unleavened breads. Cabinets full of various oils and bags of salt and pepper. I’ve already planted carrots, potatoes, radishes, spinach, strawberries, and peas. We’ve mature blueberry bushes and raspberry canes and a peach tree, and two of our friends have enough chickens to share their eggs. I still need to stock up on Bogroll, ibuprofen, and gas for the camp stove, and I wish we could have afforded battery backup for the solar. Sounds good, Laughingsong! I forgot lentils. We have lots of lentils. And soybeans. Have you ever tried making your own tofu and tempeh? It’s not too hard, actually. You have planted already?? I can’t even dig in my garden yet – it’s frozen. I will be planting in late May. I love peaches. In our orchard we have two of each of these: peaches, cherries, pears, apples, high bush cranberries, hazelnuts, plums, apricots, and a long line of native saskatoon berries. One black walnut tree, one almond tree. Honey, too. Keeps forever. An absolute must, thanks for mentioning it. Honey is good for you. Ah, absolutely perfect, thanks! I really do need to get more nuts, canned tomatoes, chickpeas, frozen fruit, I forget I can just freeze meat, it cooks best fresh, I have multiple 5.5 lb bags of whey protein powder here, so good there. Fish has always worried me due to mercury risk. I wish I had the sun for a mini-vegetable garden, but literally surrounded by trees, hillside, nothing except herb plants have a chance. Oh, in the early part of the Pandemic everyone panic bought flour. Maybe I should get some more. The risk with fish is freshwater fish and fish way up the food chain, as in swordfish and tuna. Sardines and salmon are fine. I can get supposedly wild canned salmon. I can get low mercury tuna and that is what I buy.’ You actually get a lot of mercury from the air. I might suggest getting Non/Ethanol gas if you have to try to store any of it. Should keep a little bit longer. Still need to add fuel stabilizer. Amen! I own a repair shop, and yesterday they raised the limit on ethanol that can be mixed into gasoline. It is now 15%. Ethanol is highly corrosive, and will cause problems if you use too much of it in a fuel blend. As I understand it, gasoline will “gas out” if you have those red plastic containers. Metal cans and something like StaBil are good. Though I’ve tested – by using it – gas stored for two years in metal jerrycans. No problems, but YMMV. Remember in the run up to Covid, everybody on NC knew something was gonna go down in January and February of 2020, but only on around March 10th did the proles get the word-which is when the panic and fistfights over toilet paper took place, You can panic now at your leisure… At the time in 2020, getting gasoline was the least of our worries, and all the items made from petrochemicals. Never mind actual gas shortages, ala 1973 & 1979. You wonder if Galligula sends in ICE to be gas station convenient mart ad hoc employees? Yes! I bought and filled a 7 cubic foot deep freeze with meat and other essentials in early February 2020 due to NC. It saved our ass in 2020 to present. Thank you, commentariat! Grains. I forgot the grains we have. 5 gallon buckets with gamma lids. Wheat, rye, buckwheat, oats, barley. I have lots of Red River Cereal. Wonderful Canadian mix of grains. Of course we will probably lose everything by fire. I had planned for this summer to replace the siding on the house with fire-resistant siding, but now I don’t think that will happen. I’ve been preparing for this since 1970. I’m now 78 years old and sick with Mast Cell Activation Syndrome. I don’t think I’ll make it through, but someone may be able to live here, if not me. Douglas Adams put this into the mouth of his 3.5 billion year old ghost in his novel, “Dirk Gently’s Holistic Detective Agency” “We left behind those who would destroy themselves with war…Ours was to be a world of peace, of music, of art, of enlightenment… There were those who said we would fail… who propheesied that we too carried in us the seed of war, but it was our high resolve and purpose that only art and beauty should flourish… We took with us only those who believed, who wished it to be true.” Then the ghost resolved to completely destroy the entirety of life that sprang into being when his expedition failed to secure Earth for themselves. Thus proving that the doubters who said they, too, carried the seed of war were correct. And so it will be with us. Even if only a few survive, and resolve that “it will be different now” and “never again” that it will indeed be so again. And again. And again. Per DD Geopolitcs An oil tanker operated by Turkish company ALTURA has been struck by drones in the Black Sea, 15 miles from the Bosphorus. A powerful explosion was reported and the crew has requested assistance, according to Turkish channel NTV. The attackers are unknown —- Who would do this? Le Chemise Verte? Why would they do this? I wondered the same thing. It seems like Ukraine is trying to reduce the world oil supply even more, which is like shooting yourself in the foot. My only explanation is that Netanyahu’s clone Zelensky got a message from Israel to punish Russia for its support of Iran. Most of the comments seem to think it was Israel or Ukraine. One claims the ship is run by a Turkish company, but operates under a Sierra Leone flag and is owned by an Iranian individual. How any of these anonymous commenters know any of this is unclear… All I know is Uncle Sugar does like to distribute weaponry and hard drugs far and wide. We may get Armageddon just because some jacked up commando with an itchy trigger finger did one too many lines of coke. I recall that earlier in this war a number of ships trapped in the gulf were reporting running low on essential supplies – food and potable water. At the time they were being refused at the ports. If that has not been addressed they are past being in dire straits. I have seen nothing of late. I’m hoping that has been addressed. Interesting that the Israelis have no interest in killing Pezeshkian. If they want to eliminate all the moderates to ensure continued US involvement, then surely, no one in Iran is more moderate. I can’t imagine that Pezeshkian being elected would make the slightest difference to them, so the only thing that makes sense is that he is already their Iranian Mahmoud Abbas. I’m beginning to think that all this talk of seizing islands is just a head fake and Trump’s real objective is to occupy Iran’s oil fields. Consider. He regretted that the US did not simply take Iraq’s oil fields after the invasion. When President, he took Syria’s oil fields for himself. In Venezuela he made no secret of the fact that what he really wanted to do was to control their oil fields. And weeks ago he and others were talking about taking control of Iran’s oil fields so as to make ‘a ton of money.’ As for the fact that all the forces being assembled are either Marines or elite forces, that would be Pete Hegseth’s doing as he has a hard on for special forces troops. SOF and Marines are the most expeditionary of the US forces, so that is pretty standard. The (non-SOF) Army has a heavier logistics tail. True, but that also means that they are ‘light’ infantry and depend on follow up forces of heavy infantry & support before they get hammered. Now that I think about it, I wonder how many Iranian observers have been serving with the Russian forces in the Ukraine to learn how a modern war is fought. probably more than a few. Oil and Israel, the assassins’ war. Trump needs to grab the oil fields formerly belonging to Kuwaiti royals. Except for the Green Zone and Erbil US has evacuated Iraq. I doubt a couple battalions of marines and a light brigade of airborne soldiers is enough. Talking of Kuwait, perhaps Nayirah al-Ṣabaḥ could be persuaded to help out again? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayirah_testimony France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure revealed on Wednesday that between 30 and 40 per cent of Gulf refining capacity has been damaged or destroyed by Iran’s retaliatory strikes, leaving a shortage of 11 million barrels a day on global oil markets. Lescure warned it could take up to three years to restore damaged facilities, and several months to restart those that were urgently shut down. https://www.france24.com/en/france-confirms-oil-crisis-says-30-40-gulf-energy-infrastructure-destroyed If the Pentagon is in any way sensible, this thing won’t be an occupation, but a raid. In, out, declare victory. But a raid means either destroy something – and what could they hit that cannot be hit by missiles? – or capture someone, which is not feasible in this case. Unless they’ve got coords of a specific drone or missile base, and they somehow feel taking out that one base with ground troops is a game-changer. Which I highly doubt it would be. Of course, the Pentagon has to date adopted the stance of – let Donald be Donald, and we’ll put all the blame on him when it’s over. So let’s posit an occupation. – It has to be a place reachable by helo from Saudi or UAE airfields. – It has to have something to do with oil or the Strait of Hormuz. – It has to be something that can be taken by a few hundred guys (so NOT Bandar-Abbas, a city of >500 thousand). – It has to be flashy. Because The Donald. I suspect it’ll be somewhere around the Strait. Maybe one or more of the three Iranian islands around it. Maybe the coast in front of Bandar-Abbas – the thought being, any approach to the coastline in that spot is open ground. A key part of the plan has to be USAF/USN switching operations to both interdict any Iranian troops moving up, and to kill on sight any Iranian attempt to launch missiles or drones (or wheel out mobile artillery) within a 50-100 mile radius. Given the terrain around the Strait, and the distance the planes have to fly, I am not sure this is sane, let alone feasible. Kharg Island is, of course, another possibility – as would be the refinery and port at Abadan, by the way – but these are too far up the Gulf. On the other hand, idiots like Kellogg have been talking specifically about Kharg, so who knows. Honestly, if the goal were to interdict Iranian oil exports as a means of blackmail, then the US has ship and air assets OUTSIDE of the Gulf, which Iranians would be hard-pressed to touch. Yes, it’d be some work hunting down individual tankers, but not impossible, especially if you shift to operating off Pakistan instead of next to Oman. “[…] or capture someone, which is not feasible in this case.” Now that you mention it, it strikes me that taking hostages amongst the civilian population is a favourite Israeli tactic. Plenty of Palestinian children, women, old people, medical personnel, etc, languish in Israeli detention centres under atrocious conditions. Imn the USA, ICE has got into the habit of organizing roundups of illegal aliens — and of not being too particular about whom they arrest, swooping green card residents, citizens of the USA, and tourists. Capturing a couple thousands Iranians and using them as a trump card when haggling about the end of the conflict would be consistent with the mentality of those who started the war. That was George Custer’s plan at the Little Bighorn back in 1876 too. Little Big Hor(n)muz …or Pay of Pigs If the US goal is to capture Iran’s oil fields, then I can see an attack on Abadan with the intent to eventually control the Ahvaz oil fields. There is a nice airport in Abadan. Of course, this is all crazy talk. Iran’s retaliation would be severe and lead to a worldwide economic depression. Shorter Trump while campaigning: the U.S. should never have gone into Iraq and should keep the oil. Same with Syria. Always the same. Trump’s story arc inverts that of Little Caesar. Ordinarily such narratives follow a path from street thuggery and traditional gang violence to ostensibly legitimate business. Trump turns that on its head. He has graduated in reverse. He seems to find fulfillment, like his sadomasochristian warrior chief, Smedley Butler before he lost his way and renounced his accomplishments as an imperialist gangster. Reneging on contracts in a white collar is all great fun, but can it compare to putting them out on whole nations? All to say, a plausible speculation. However, as the experts would say, desires are all well and good, but what are the capabilities? They may not be what this smash-and-grab Caesar thinks they are. Not sure how widespread the aging-geek contingent is in the commentariat, but Trump is reminding me more and more of the character arc of Elric of Melnibone, but with Bibi & Co. instead of Stormbringer. There are some differences, Trump completely lacks the humanism of Elric, and more resembles the classical Melnibonean ruler than Elric, but the story arc is proceeding in a similar vein. Maybe Trump had relations with a cousin? Or something like that? I can certainly see his connection to the Chaos Lords. There’s the Habsburgs and the Habsburgs not, chin up America! Scary. Trump could see himself as Elric and this is his chance at Imrryr. How did that sea battle up the canyon go? Musical Interlude: HAWKWIND – Elric (The Enchanter) – 1985 > And he’s frozen in a time trap Slowly losing power And he’s frightened if he makes a move The dream will soon turn sour Trump is certainly NOT the Eternal Champion! But Bibi as Stormbringer…. Yeah. At the end of the last novel, after Stormbringer kills Elric (sorry for the spoiler to those who haven’t read Moorcock!) it says “Farewell, friend. I was a thousand times more evil than thou!” Bibi in a nutshell. I was/am thinking the same thing about a head fake re seizing islands. Given everything I’ve read including this post and it’s embedded videos, trying to take any of the islands seems at best foolish, and will commit solders to certain death. So I find it hard to believe that it makes sense, and can only hope that the military commanders will balk if this is the actual plan. So: 1) Head fake? 2) Being done for purely political/PR purposes? 3) WH war planners are stupid/irrational? If it is a head fake then the questions becomes? 1) Is it all negotiating ploy? 2) What are the actual likely targets? The problem is there is really not much else to do. They could try invading from Iraq (which did not work for the Iraqis back in the day of the Iraq-Iran war, when Iran was not much prepared). But we lost the base in Erbil and the Iraq militia will be able to do quite a lot to impede that sort of operation. Could they(us) be aiming at Yemen? In coordination with gulf proxies ? When Yemen shut the Red Sea there was talk of sending in ground troops but Scott Ritter demolished that idea because there are not enough troops nor time to build a mountain of supplies that would be needed to support them. Agreed. They have to attack from a border as trying to land any force in the middle of the country will almost certainly be shot down. And if they do get in, they are very unlikely to get out w/o being captured/killed, so a suicide mission. Attacking one or more islands with personnel will only get people killed. So doing so seems at best a PR move to rally the American public with the deaths of American troops. Expecting this is a head fake, I guess the more likely option is some sort of beefed up bombing campaign which is about the only other option (that I can think of). unlike in Venezuela, they cannot just stay offshore for weeks pirating fishing boats so the moment they get to within 100 miles or so, they become targets so would need to be relentlessly supported from the air from that point on. heavy bombing campaigns to support the landing troops will need full air superiority and that is not yet the case. So Iran would be best simply containing the expeditionary forces until they surrender, rather than killing them. It’s not likely that the SOF would be in the mood to fight until death for this one. I wonder if they aim to retake Iraq (where “we” seem to be down to a besieged garrison at Erbil), coming from a mustering spot in Jordan, and then use that to bootstrap attacks on northern Iran. Another possibility would be mustering in Saudi for an attack through Kuwait. Trying from sea or air directly for one of the islands, or even a beachhead on the coast near Baluchistan seems like you’d be concentrating your troops up at the front of a shooting gallery. And dropping paratroopers deep into Iran would be a suicide mission, although they might be able to blow up some stuff or take some hostages first. I guess sending troops against Lebanon (from Jordan) or Yemen (from S. A.) would be other not quite so insane options, although maybe not dramatic enough for Trump to ballyhoo. The Axis of Resistance should be heavily targeting any sites on the ground that might help coordinate whatever the operation is, like US embassies (especially the huge complex in Beirut and the Iraqi “Green Zone”). “I guess sending troops against Lebanon…” Since I haven’t yet seen any location tracking (it could be out there), I’ve been wondering about that too. From links today: Hezbollah sets unparalleled record: 87 operations strike ‘Israel’ – Al Mayadeen The island in question may be Greenland. Perhaps taking Greenland would give Trump a “win”? Or, Zealand? Take out the head of the Danish snake and all, if we are delving into silliness? DJT doesn’t have to occupy oil fields. Destroying as many possible oil drilling, refining and shipping facilities outside “his” continent of both Americas will do. “His” oil will be sold at monopoly prizes to whom he wants, generating surplus cash-flow for U.S. energy companies and power over anyone dependent on energy imports for HIM. No it won’t be. Not the right grade mix even for the US. See: https://theuaob.substack.com/p/the-naphtha-heart-attack-why-120 Overstates his case but is directionally valid. He overstates his case by a country mile. US refiners produce about 5 million barrels of naphtha per day. Only about 250,000 million bpd gets exported. If that export channel ceases to exist, that would mean a cutback of less than 1 million bpd production out of the Permian, and reduction of US refinery utilization from a historically high 96% to a still very good 92%. US refiners have been adapting to light grades for over a decade, this is not a new phenomenon. We import a great deal of oil because needed refinery mix. We are a net importer of crude. 60% is from Canada. And what about this issue? Except Iran has clearly stated they will turn the GCC oil fields “to ash” if their fields are attacked or damaged. No amount of US oil can fill that void (on top of what Yves already mentioned). Welcome Global Depression. Alfonso de Albuquerque. Persian textbooks might have glossed over him. He built a fortress on Hormuz Island in the early 16th century that allowed the Portuguese to control the Strait for one hundred years, and fold some kingdoms in the process. I’m sure the Persians paid a lot of schills to talk smack then, too. Taking Hormuz Island and the Bandar Abbas airport will kick off two of many operations: A) Operation everybody but Teheran gets to use the Strait; B) Massive, uncontested air support for angry minorities slash former Artesh (army) conscripts to march north. The IRGC will entertain a dilemma at every juncture: assault the anti-regime agrarian uprising barreling at them, or deal with the revolt of the urbanites behind them whom they failed. The two movements need not even be ideologically aligned. The answer is “take off the IRGC uniform and wait”. The IRGC know what’s coming. They’ve been attacking SAR Medevac UH-60s parked out at Baghdad Intl with FPVs. They know Serbia lasted 40 days under an allied air campaign before capitulating. IRGC commanders don’t have a lot of time left to capture a pilot POW under which to hide. So the original story – that much of the population will “rise up” against the existing regime – was accurate after all! Nice to know how it will all work out. Obviously those stupid Persians don’t know their history. But out of curiosity, how many missiles and drones did they have to use against the Portuguese back in the 16th century? And those cowardly IRGC commanders hiding behind captured pilots and shucking their uniforms… they don’t stand a chance against the brave forces of the US and Israel fighting for Freedom and Truth and Justice. Can’t wait ’till that oil starts flowing again! Thanks for the morning laugh. And who exactly is going to pull this off? You say Afonse de Albuquerque and I raise King Sebastian, if we are into Portuguese personages of the Age of Discovery. Still rooting for the colonizers and hoping the brown people will rise up in support of their Great White Liberators? That is so 16th to 20th century! The NATO bombing of Yugoslavia lasted 78 days, not 40, and was largely unsuccessful, militarily; it was Russian signaling of a cessation of support which ended things. As for the history, why not bring up Galerius and Narses? It’s apples to oranges. The hit on the helicopter in Iraq was by PMF, not IRGC. I don’t know that enough information is publicly available to conclude coordination in every case. In short, you’ve got a lot of confidence which I don’t have in knowing the outcome, especially for what is on this blog a heterodox position. Sounds like a cracking screen play you’ve concocted there, David. You could have the kids from Red Dawn make a cameo. Fck Yeah! Team America! Thank you, Yves. Regarding your concern that “these excellent and other analysts may be underestimating what the US and Israel could do,” I concur. WarMonitor (@warmonitors) is reporting that two senior US officials and two sources “with knowledge of the matter” say that the US may coordinate “ground forces” with “a series of massive bombings.” It would not surprise me if these bombings involve tactical nuclear weapons. The more I think about it, the more it strikes me that the US probably sees an overwhelming nuclear attack combined with ground invasion as their only chance to enable the ground troops to penetrate. How many ground troops are going to rush into an area that just got nuked? In the Larry Johnson video in the post, he mentioned a remark from some operator about making sure there are enough chaplains to read last rites if there is a ground invasion, or something to that effect (sorry, only half listening to it in the background). If morale is already that low, will these troops rush into a radioactive nightmare, or turn on those who ordered them to? Unfortunately these ground soldiers refusing suicide orders would find themselves stranded 7000 miles from home. It’s not like our own Civil War where a deserter could slip into the woods and start hitch-hiking home. These guys have been given a kamikaze mission with no way out. But, for those still stateside, we are going to have a rising wave of illnesses, disabilities, and conscientious objector applications, even suicides, with enlistments crashing to the floor. Isn’t this how the overextended Roman Empire crumbled, with far-flung legions wondering what the hell they were doing? Very dangerously, minimal residual radiation nukes are a thing, as in a part of US nuclear arsenal and something with a doctrine of use. So a an airburst tactical nuke can be sub 1kt yield and 99.9% “clean” fusion, leaving you with the prompt radiation and the fireball and blast wave to.worry about but not really fall out. There have been several suspicious large, bright explosions with stratospheric mushroom clouds rising from plasma columns, in Syria, Russia and Iran in the past decade. Many of them are claimed to be arms dumps but show no secondary detonations…. Either the marines are being sacrificed on taking Uranian territory to justify tactical nukes in the open or they are for use elsewhere (Iraq at Basra; Lebanon; the Oman to take Musandum; maybe even Israel to deal with the crazies or worse help push the Palestinians out when Iran retaliates and bombs the water…). This question is naive and maybe not relevant, but what happens if there are nuclear explosions close to Pakistan and not too far away from Russia? Russia is supposed to have some kind of detection system, but this is for ICBMs only I guess. But nuclear attacks are a threshold that must not be crossed because who knows what happens “automatically” after that? The issue is not whether the US can penetrate whatever their objective may be. The issue is how the US maintains logistics and resupply to the troops holding the objective. In a direct face-off between Iran and the US, given the US population advantages and economic advantages, Iran is at risk of losing conventionally. But that would require a draft, conscription of millions, total restructuring of the US economy toward war production, ending the defense contractor grift, and a determination to fight for a decade, in a conflict in which the US has no national interest and which is already politically unpopular. It would also make it nearly impossible for the US to project force outside the ME. US elites are not going to agree to giving up financial looting to focus on winning a total war than US citizens are going to agree to give up their lives to make AIPAC happy. The US and Israel can do great damage to Iran and its proxies, but so did Iraq. Iran has escalation dominance, and can end Israel and the Gulf State monarchies in all probability, as well as destroy all the oil infrastructure in the Gulf, reducing world oil supply by 20% for an indefinite period of time. Germany had the greatest army in the world, and an intention to create a “Greater Germany” in Eastern Europe. Relying on bad intel as to the capabilities of the Red Army, they preemptively attacked the USSR. They did great damage to the USSR, but lost the war because of German Intelligence failure. If Israel has significantly misread Iran’s capability, they will likely suffer the fate of the Germans unless they quickly discover an exit ramp. All the open source evidence suggests that they not only misread Iran’s capabilities, but Hezbollah’s capabilities as well. The cartoonish view of elite ground forces as invincible warriors is about to encounter unyielding facts of unfavorable geography and logistics. Trump has a slim chance of pulling off a quick raid with minimal casualties, but it would be militarily insignificant. Anything more ambitious would likely be a bloody disaster. Let’s not forget that one of Delta Force’s first operations was in Iran. It didn’t go so well. Yes, the shade of Chargin’ Charlie Beckwith would like a do-over. The Furkan Gözükara twiXt: Iran demands. Take a moment to read that Xitter again, but this time, substitute the word Russia for Iran. Things suddenly become even more clear than ever. Not to your liberal friends, though. Not to your Republican friends. The wars in Russia and Iran are of a piece. The genocide in Palestine is a U.K. and U.S. operation to conduct these wars by other means. The model, I submit, was Yugoslavia. Note the absurd hunger for dismantling the Russian Federation and and Iran by the likes of Kaja Kallas, Hillary Clinton, and Lindsey “I Only Pretend to Be a Lawyer” Graham. A scandal has broken out in Italy because journalists have uncovered and reported travel by hunters and sharpshooters from Italy to Bosnia during the Civil War there to engage in target shooting in Sarajevo. Yes, murder tourism. The banality of evil, the banality of evil. And the impending No Kings confab has no solution to drag the U S of A out of its moral degradation. And yet perhaps there is something especially horrible about the mindset that has been allowed to evolve in Israel. So one might wonder whether the tail is also wagging the dog intellectually. Hedges interviews Gideon Levy. https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/why-israel-wants-a-war-with-iran Levy says the mindset is the result of early indoctrination and media lockstep including not telling the public anything about what is going on in Gaza or in this new war so that 93 percent figure is in part the result of complete ignorance about the region and the world and the humanity of which they are a part. It’s cult like behavior (not his words). Levy discounts the notion that any of this is existential for Israel but does say that for a country totally dependent on the USA big changes are on the way. He may be optimistic about that first part. Israelis are an extremely psychologically damaged people, and I think this is becoming apparent to most of the world, probably even to a decent percentage of what passes for Western leadership. The Zionist entity keeps them in line for now with political bribes – Western elites may not be quite as cult-like as the Zionists (maybe a close 2nd), but they sure are venal. Getting punched in the face by Iran isn’t likely to change this victimhood, ‘chosen people’ mentality. Being disengaged from the big brother who always comes to their aid just might though. Not sure if that happens at the ballot box (unlikely IMO) or by the generation that admires the state of Israel through some sense of misplaced guilt dying off. The root of American Exceptionalism thinking too, not just Israel. RE: No Kings confab Hadn’t heard of this one yet. Is the Democrat party only allowing those over 80 to attend so as to mirror the Congressional demographics, or is everyone welcome? Everyone is welcome. There’s lots going on. This is the main site: https://www.nokings.org This is where you find an event near you: https://www.mobilize.us/nokings/ Please, join us Saturday Tell me again why it is so important to have a No Kings rally when it would be far more vital to have a No War rally instead? Probably because the non-kings are more bothered that Donald didn’t follow procedure than the war itself. https://mondoweiss.net/2026/03/no-kings-protest-refusal-to-address-iran-war-raises-questions-over-lack-of-u-s-antiwar-movement/ Sheepdogs gotta herd? The truth is that what happened in Minnesota and what is now happening in the ME are all of a piece–perhaps BLM too since many thuggish tactics of the regular police were suggested by Israeli training. The Dems didn’t mind kings so much when Biden wanted to be one and Biden’s excesses may well have contributed to the “why not me?” attitude of his successor. Perhaps the rallies when they happen will turn into more general war protest. The public are more in tune with reality than the leaders of either party. Because to the dems it’s all about Trump. That’s all they think about 24/7 and this is a way for them to feel good about themselves by doing a protest. Trump is Hitler, the biggest problem known to mankind ever in the history of the world. More vital to have a war protest? Probably. But it has to be about Trump. How about make the protest about the Epstein list? The people on this list are the Big Club, the same Big Club who got us into this mess to begin with. Besides, you “should” be able to get both sides behind that, and have double the people. Focus on a common thing – the people in these files. Demand accountability for all of them. Nope, can’t do that, we hate those MAGAats as my PMC friends call them (Red Hats is popular too). They don’t even want to be on the same street at the same time with those lowlife scum. Screw those people, we hate them too. It has to be about Trump. I have seen placards well beyond No Kings…. seems like Trump offers up much near-event fodder. I think Iran/ anti Israel, pro Gaza, No War, Medicare for all, Shore Up Social Security. Pickyerbitch. I enjoy seeing folks I have missed through the year and years. It’s a rearranging the deck chairs moment, but hey, better than basketball or shopping? ACF: What are your demands? This is nothing: “Because this country does not belong to kings, dictators, or tyrants. It belongs to We the People — the people who care, who show up, and who fight for dignity, a life we can afford, and real opportunity.” And it’s because the leadership is afraid of what is required: Engagement with Russia instead of snobbery. End of privatized health care. Repeal of all “right to work” laws. Money out of politics. Dismantling of both major political parties. Abolition of DHS and ICD. Forced retirement of so many people in the Congress — Democrats and Republicans. An end to the lawlessness, which means putting lots of white-collar criminals in jail instead of sixteen-year-old black men. And a threat of general strike that will go on longer than one afternoon. Boycotts of Amazon, Tesla, Uber, AI platforms. And? The quote from above sounds like a demand for better marketing — which isn’t going to solve anyone’s problems. The Democratic Party loves Donald Trump because he enables them to do No Kings theatrics instead of the real politics that voters want but donors do not. The worse he behaves the better. This Iran war is a perfect example. The Democratic Party is as hostile to and ignorant and fearful of Iran as the Republican Party and their senators approved this war retrospectively. But with Donald Trump it’s have-your-cake-and-eat-it-time: they get to finally have their war on Iran and blame Trump and Republicans for it. Yeah, no [family blog]ing way. It was the Democrat party that started this regional war under Biden. Why would I go to a “protest” sponsored by these Zionist warmongers?!??!?? The very premise of the No Kings is the idea that Benedict Donald ought not to declare himself royalty on January 20th 2029-Baron Barron notwithstanding, should he falter. As I see it: 1. It’s fair to challenge the premise of peaceful protest as a method of change; having participated in many many protests over the years, including the in hindsight pointless anti-invasion of Iraq ones, I had given up on the idea of protest as a strategy. 2. Protest becomes effective when the State (sovereign, not one of the 50 in particular) responds with violence rather than ignoring it, and the protestors *remain* non-violent (though that may only be true if there is a violent, militant thread of protest too, so the non-violent ones become who the State deals with.) The most recent example are the MN anti-ICE protests, which led to Kristi losing her job and the current partial shutdown. (Small potatoes for sure, but more than protest has accomplished in a long time.) 3. No Kings got started as counter-programming to Trump’s birthday military parade, and it made his head explode some. Despite all the charges above that it’s a D thing, they eschew any reference to political parties, because the idea that Presidents aren’t Kings isn’t a partisan one, it’s foundational to a country that had a revolution against a king. E.g., if a local No Kings event references a political party (e.g., this event has been endorsed by the xyz local Democratic Committee) the event can’t be listed on the No Kings website, which is the way most people find out about the events. 4. Correct, there’s no unified set of demands other than to send the message that the People reject the way Trump is governing; it’s much more of a ‘FU Trump’ than an opening negotiation. The fully grassroots nature of this protest–local people choose to have an event, commit to non-violence and non-partisanship and then post it on their website, and gain access to trainings and resources and support for successful events–make coming up with a single list of demands impossible. That said, it’s really about massive numbers of people willing to take time to reject the way Trump is trying to govern us. The more people who participate, the louder the message. I believe this war will help inspire more people to show up and be counted than last time. Personally, I see value in sending this very direct, We Reject You Donald message, and will participate proudly. It’s also generally a pleasure to spend a couple of hours surrounded by people who I share my view of Donald with–I live in a purple area “represented” by an R Congressman who in no way stands up to Donald, where Trump trains would happen every so often during his first term (interestingly none so far this one.) oops I replied to the wrong part of the text chain, wasn’t aiming at you Wuk in particular Many of “the People” rejected the way Biden was governing too. Where were the protests when it was the Democrat party screwing things up so badly that a complete charlatan looked like the better choice? I’m all for peaceful protest. Just not this top down, sorry excuse for one. It’s aimed at one man when the whole system stinks to high heaven. Thanks, but no thanks. Not sure what you mean by “top down”. If you mean being organized from on high, it’s not. To have a No Kings event, you decide to have one and organize it. No one is coming to communities asking people to organize these events. If you mean “targeting Trump in particular”, then yes, it’s absolutely aiming at the top. And I 100% agree with you that the problem goes way beyond him; Congress and the Supreme Court are currently atrocious too. But that’s not, from where I sit, an argument against this one so much as it is an argument for additional protests outside of the No Kings banner. That said, I don’t think Congress or the Supreme Court are likely to be reactive to protest targeting them, I think in general power understands the way to defang protest is to ignore it. So I don’t think protests targeting them accomplish much. Winning primaries in safe seats is a much faster way to change Congress. (Which is why the DNC went after David Hogg). Trump doesn’t ignore No Kings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjhcfS5IMzI https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-reacts-no-kings-protests-saying-im-not-king-i-work-my-ass-off https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-right-reactions-no-kings-protests-1235450106/ While his reactive idiocy had no impact on his policy, if he overreacts and uses violence, or if the protests just get keep growing, maybe change gets set in motion. And independent of policy impact, participating in this event is straight up fun, which is its own reason to participate. The last No Kings Day had 2,700 registered events. This one has over 3,000, so I expect it will be bigger. Re Biden, sure, lots of people didn’t like how he was governing. But apparently they weren’t motivated to take to the streets in this way. I and others did take to the streets during his presidency over Israel’s genocide and other issues; his presidency wasn’t immune from protest. But everything is personal with Trump, and he has acted as if he alone had the full power of the US Government to a degree not present in the past several presidencies. So it’s not surprising that the reaction groundswell has been personal as well. Enjoy your weekend, lyman alpha blob. You’ll have good company not participating; surely hundreds of millions of Americans will sit it out too. But many millions will participate. The post by the House of Saud yesterday asking whether this War was planned by AI got my attention. It is entirely plausible given this administration’s plans to go “All in” on AI “Super Intelligence”, that’s how the “Liberation day” tariffs were decided upon… Given Trump’s bubble and the demonstrable idiocy of American “Leadership” it wouldn’t surprise me if they were still relying on ChatGPT for their planning. Oh boy. I wonder if Trump or Hegseth have ever heard of the Powell Doctrine- 1 Is a vital national security interest threatened? 2 Do we have a clear attainable objective? 3 Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed? 4 Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted? 5 Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement? 6 Have the consequences of our action been fully considered? 7 Is the action supported by the American people? 8 Do we have genuine broad international support? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_Doctrine Going by how this war has unfolded, I doubt it. Well, they have item 2 covered, which is to control the oilfields. What?!? And even if control of the oilfields were attainable, it wouldn’t be much use without the Strait open. Maybe they heard of it, they just thought that if all questions could be answered by “no”, then it was time for war. At least they are acting that way, I don’t see any question that can honestly be answered by “yes”. >>>chief Ali Larijani was effectively forced on to the President The Iranian president has very little discretionary executive power. Pretty sure that few in the US (GOP or Dem, media, DC, et al.) grasp that fact. the Iranian constitution is a fascinating document—-totally alien from a Western secular point of view: an amalgam of religiosity, social justice, conservativeis, state power, individual liberty It’s not ALL about oil, there seems to be faith and enmity afoot, not to mention prestidigitator-distraction from the Epstein Class exposures. However, oil is the lubricant. Oil demand by Nation state- from Visual Capitalist, September 2025: (top 10….list shows 25 Countries) Rank Country Million Barrels in 2024 Per Day Share of Global Total 1 🇺🇸 U.S. 19.0 18.7% 2 🇨🇳 China 16.4 16.1% 3 🇮🇳 India 5.6 5.5% 4 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 4.0 3.9% 5 🇷🇺 Russia 3.8 3.8% 6 🇯🇵 Japan 3.2 3.2% 7 🇰🇷 South Korea 2.9 2.9% 8 🇧🇷 Brazil 2.6 2.5% 9 🇨🇦 Canada 2.3 2.3% 10 🇩🇪 Germany 2.1 2.0% https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-top-25-countries-by-oil-consumption/ World produces just over 100 million barrels per day, in optimal conditions. So the math at this moment is pretty simple. I wonder what the global food production ranking is, and how the two lines correspond? Preppin’ for the Jack Pot. Hmmm Chocolate and tequila? Large-capacity water filters? Pre-printed forbearance requests for creditors and tax collectors? Sheesh. One large rock or bridge deck to crawl under…. peace to all. If Canada produces 5.3 mbpd, imports 0.7 mbpd, uses 2.3 mbpd, this must mean we export 3.7 mbpd to the US. If the US produces 13.2 mbpd, then the US and with imports from Canada is 16.9 mbpd, which puts the US in a good spot to absorb any supply shocks. For Natural Gas, the US produces 113 bcfd and uses 90 bcfd. Canada produces 20 bcfd and exports 10 bcfd to the US so the US can export 33 bcfd of natural gas. Canada and the US look to be in a good position. Unfortunately given the clowns running Canada this can and will be screwed up US imports 25% of daily demand. Nearly 4 Million BBl/ day from Canada, Alberta crude and tar sands stock. Surprisingly little from Mexico. I have NOT seen a gas staion with either a line, or a ‘we are closed- no fuel’ such as existed in the 1970’s. Consider source, I live in the fairly oil-rich northern Plains/ Rockies. If 10% of oil is off or about to be off-line, simple arithmetic says, well, wea each cut back on demand 10%, it will be fine, just like the Straight of Hormuz will open itself. Food will be our shit- show. Grocery stores turn ‘ fresh’ inventory every three days. Good luck, everybody else! (Family Guy meme) Say, if anyone here has an inside line to El Donaldo, implore him to wake da phuc up and create some time and space in a Non-violent way? The Revolution will be Televised! Some great CGI shorts from the Regime about the war with the Great Satan. Hollywood action film treatment https://nitter.poast.org/simpatico771/status/2036683483657982168#m Disaster movie treatment https://nitter.poast.org/incontextmedia/status/2036829840523813202#m Lego movie treatment, LOL! https://nitter.poast.org/RyanRozbiani/status/2036503251445555243#m That Lego video slaps. I wonder how many US citizens can conceive of a loss in this theater? How many people are thinking about what could happen if we don’t concede before we hit multiple material limits? Dame Judy Dench as Keir Starmer – bwaaaaaahahahahahaaaa! Yeah, that Hollywood version is amazing. Great casting. Starmer is S+ but JD Vance is great, too. S+? Interesting things we reveal about where we come from. ;) (NB: S comes from 秀, East Asian academic grade that corresponds to A snd pronounced Su in Korean and Shuu in Japanese–idk the correct Mandarin pronunciation, via anime and manga.) Eh, introduced into Western lingo via anime and manga, that is. Considering the type and size of the “ground” forces being deployed, I believe that their only practical and possible use will be for a massive NEO (Non-combatant evacuation operation) in the GCC before or after a nuclear strike. Another ticking clock – food supplies in the Gulfies and the decision to starve/food riot instability or realign with Iran – a few weeks or less This was IIRC a major concern of commentators in the first two weeks but seems to have been “pushed down the stack” recently. I wonder why. I could think the affected nations would be screaming for relief. Perhaps the quality of foresight and planning in these nations is similar to that in US. The Central Bank of France has completed the transfer of its gold reserves from the USA: 129 tons of bullion, previously stored in New York, were sold, and then the central bank acquired new gold in France. The operation lasted from July 2025 to January 2026, after which the gold was placed in Paris. Due to high metal prices, the regulator recorded a one-time income of almost 13 billion euros (about $15.1 billion), reports Reuters, citing a bank report. After the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s reserves in 2022, the issue of gold repatriation has been actively discussed among central banks and politicians. Thus, gold has already begun to return to India and Serbia, and calls for its transfer are being heard in Germany, Italy, Poland, and Romania. Source: SD Bullion Disclaimer:Yes, I bought a lot of my silver and gold bullion there and had it vaulted with them but have completed the transfer to SGPMX in Singapore and their subsidiary in Hong Kong (Stacker Market). Why go that route? 260,000 pounds is less than 100 vehicles in weight, and cars get imported all the time from Europe. No reason we couldn’t have just sent karats back, unless say the cupboard was bare. It might explain the rise of the spot price in old yeller in the time period when the deal went down, as there was a net buyer who utilized our promise sorry notes to get ‘R done buying back those 129 tons and what do you get? https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4372154/posts Calls BS on the physical existing in USA. I am sorry to be SO LATE! Now done. The additions in the last half-hour are consequential so if you got here before the time of this comment, please reload the page and re-skim. Thank you from the bottom of my heart for all of your work over the years. Be safe– hope you have many more moments to savor as you chose and see fit! Deep Dive 25 Mar Davis and Pape. Pape reminded Davis that Trump is asking for $200 B! That means the war for Greater Israel and the Kievan war to balkanize Russia are going to run on and on. We ought to ponder that. Money is needed for war, but you cannot shoot money. But you can light it on fire. How close are the nearest US Navy ships to the Strait of Hormuz right now? I’m guessing not very, so the entire premise of an amphibious assault on any part of Iran, much less Kharg Island itself (which would require running the Strait) is kind of ridiculous. This leaves aerial assault via tilt-rotor craft and the like. What is their range? How do they propose to avoid getting droned, either as they land or once they have debarked? And even if you can land ground forces somewhere, how do you supply them? The whole thing smacks of fantasy bred of too much Marvel Cinematic Universe and not enough logistics. The description, in the “Events in Ukraine” link at the main “today’s links” page, of the conditions facing front-line ground troops in Ukraine sounds hellish. It sounds like it is not safe to have one’s head above ground if anywhere near areas patrolled by drones. One digs in and stays hidden, and even resupply to forward positions is performed by drone. (The author of that item says that armoured mobility with active defense and/or the ability to sustain repeated drone strikes, not yet available, will break the stalemate. I wonder whether we may see a return to underground tunneling, as was done in WW1, and in ancient siege warfare) If the Iranians have adapted their defenses to these new methods, it could be very disagreeable for US raiders. “Yet Another Commodity Guy” has harvested some assessments from Farsi language sites that map rather closely to what Larry Johnson predicts in his discussion with Danny Davis. The Germans thought that they knew the Allies’ plan too in June 1944. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bodyguard Not the same. If anything, the behavior of the US is more akin to Germany than the other way around. Quite a few German generals (Rommel, Marcks, etc) did figure out what exactly the Allies were up to. The real problem for the Germans was their inability to be flexible when the D Day came (inflexibility up the command chain, inability to move forces, etc.) and lack of intelligence (eg the belief that US had far more troops in UK than there actually were–the whole FUSAG disinformation thing.) There weren’t many options, so figuring out the Allied plans was not a big thing. There aren’t many options for US/Israel today either. The size and capabilities of the available forces are well known to all (and we certainly haven’t had a year to spread disinformation about how an entire fake army group was being built up). The alleged “air superiority” US and Israel have over Iran seems rather dubious to me. The missiles and drones (combined with paucity of available forces and far more tenuous logistics for US.) provide Iran options that Germany never had in 1944. I still maintain that the only viable option for US is through southern Baluchistan. All the factors (good local infrastructure, bad infrastructure outside the area, access to open sea, sparse local population made up of minorities with issues vis a vis Tehran, etc. However, it has rather limited upside–it is kinda isolated from the rest of Iran and some distance away from Hormuz, although not that far–plus diplomatic downsides–issues with both Pakistan and India. ‘The troops stick close to the island’s oil infrastructure for cover, confronting the Iranian regime with an extraordinary dilemma: destroy the oil facilities to get at them? Or hold back, allowing Washington to take control of the country’s economic backbone?’ Of course the Iranians could shut the pumps that send oil to Kharg Island and then light it up to burn those troop concentrations. When you are in an existential fight for your lives, every option is on the table. It seems to me that the rhetoric about controlling the Kharg island oil terminal is incoherent. One part of US government is encouraging the sale of Iranian oil in a bid to keep the price from rising too quickly. Accommodating Iranian supply to the world is a good thing in the current conditions of oil scarcity. Another part of US government is talking about interfering with the export of Iranian oil as a way of pressuring the government of Iran. Sale of Iranian oil is a bad thing, because it provides income and foreign reserves to the Iranian government. The different moving parts in this “plan” do not work together. It’s as if everyone is just improvising, but what is coming out is not skilled “jazz,” but discordant cacophony. Probably behind the scenes it would be a matter of Hegseth fighting it out with Bessent. Trump does like blowing stuff up but Bessent would tel him that Mr. Market would have a sad if oil deliveries from the Gulf shut down entirely. Say, where is that little weasel Rubio in all of this? He is after all SecState. I speculate that part of the incoherence is that the “let the oil through even if Iran gets the revenue” people may be thinking about longer time horizons while the “strangle Iranian exports” people hope that the conflict can be resolved promptly through escalation, in which case the additional supply disruption will be only temporary. One fears that six months from now, the hard-liners will be CYA-ing with language along the lines of “who could have known that the Iranians could be so resilient?” We live in the Land of Hoocoodanode. Serious question – have the Iranians developed or incorporated drone units a la Ukrainian War into their armed forces (or the Basij)? The Russians and the Ukrainians have done so. If the Russians were defending, say, Kharg Island, they’d have a drone unit – not just FPVs, but recon and heavies too – stationed somewhere 20-25 miles away, with launch sites at 10-15 miles and some retransmitters pre-positioned. Then they’d let the US forces land, and have FPVs go to town, which is literally something they do every day on various war fronts (except Ukrainians, with few exceptions, usually “land” via armored transports). While using longer-ranged FPVs to target logistics, helos in this case. Also, have the heavies drop impromptu minefields and such, and have recon drones spot for “Shahed” type strikes and missile assaults. I don’t think I’ve seen a single video of an Iranian force using FPVs. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Hezbollah use FPVs, to date it’s been lobbing ATGMs at the advancing Israelis – to good effect, but the way the Israelis deploy in Lebanon (or in Gaza, for that matter) they are clearly not expecting any drone strikes. I’ve seen anti-Iranian proxies during the 2025 war use FPVs to strike at some Iranian air defense assets. And then the Iranian security forces showing videos of arrested suspects with car trunks full of FPVs. That I have seen. So either the Iranians are really good at keeping this particular cat in the bag, and any US troops that show up are in for quite the surprise – because I doubt Marine squads carry dedicated ECM units or have dedicated anti-drone gunners (like you see in Russian infantry squads) – or…or the Iranians have been lagging on this particular aspect of drone warfare, just as so many other people around the world have (hello, the West!), and if the Marines do land, will rely on drone and missile strikes to make their lives miserable. Or something like that. To be sure, I recognize that they’ve been able to build a lot of good “mid-range” drones, not just the Shahed. But training a tactical-level FPV unit is a whole different kettle of fish, both in terms of the production capabilities you need (much more customization at the tactical level), and operator training… Internet search suggests that PMF units in Iraq are using FPV drones in attacks on US sites. That’s a data-point in the region. I would suspect that the Iranians have been closely watching the Ukraine conflict and drawing inferences relevant to the situation they face. In further support of your comment, see Mish’s economic analysis blog which references a WSJ article (yes, even they are admitting that Iranian militias are using FPV drones to destroy US bases in Iraq.) Scroll down to the header “The Lessons of War” https://mishtalk.com/economics/trump-wants-a-speedy-end-to-the-war-he-started-ok-so-what/ I thought I’ve seen videos of Hizb’ullah drone attacks on Israeli tanks, but I could be mixing things up–too many videos and some obviously fake, so I can’t retrace stuff. Barak Ravid latest line: Pentagon prepares for massive “final blow” of Iran war (Axios, archived) The Pentagon is developing military options for a “final blow” in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign, according to two U.S. officials and two sources with knowledge. Why it matters: A dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress is made in diplomatic talks and, in particular, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Some U.S. officials think a crushing show of force to conclude the fighting would create more leverage in peace talks or simply give Trump something to point to and declare victory. Between the lines: Iran also has a say in how the war ends, and many of the scenarios under discussion would risk prolonging and intensifying the fight rather than bringing it to a dramatic conclusion. Zoom in: In interviews with Axios, officials and sources familiar with the internal discussions describe four major “final blow” options Trump could choose from: Invading or blockading Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. Invading Larak, an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the Strait of Hormuz. The strategic outpost hosts Iranian bunkers, attack craft that can blow up cargo ships and radars that monitor movements in the strait. Seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa and two smaller islands, which lie near the western entrance to the strait and are controlled by Iran but also claimed by the UAE. Blocking or seizing ships that are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the Hormuz Strait. The intrigue: The U.S. military has also prepared plans for ground operations deep inside the interior of Iran to secure the highly enriched uranium buried within nuclear facilities. Instead of conducting such a complicated and risky operation, the U.S. could instead carry out large-scale air strikes on the facilities to try to prevent Iran from ever accessing the material. Reality check: Trump hasn’t made a decision yet on pursuing any of these scenarios, and White House officials describe any potential ground operations as “hypothetical.” But sources say he’s ready to escalate if talks with Iran don’t yield tangible results soon. Trump could first implement his threat to bomb power plants and energy facilities in Iran, for which Tehran has threatened massive retaliation across the Gulf. Driving the news: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt warned Iran on Wednesday that Trump is ready to strike “harder than ever before” if no deal can be reached. “The President doesn’t bluff and he is ready to unleash hell. Iran shouldn’t miscalculate again… any violence beyond this point will be because the Iranian regime… refuses to come to a deal,” Leavitt said. State of play: More reinforcements, including several fighter jet squadrons and thousands of troops, are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days and weeks. One Marine expeditionary unit will arrive this week and another is now deploying. The command element of the 82nd Airborne Division has been directed to deploy to the Middle East with an infantry brigade consisting of several thousand troops. The other side: Iranian officials have said they don’t trust Trump’s negotiation push and see it as a ruse to launch sneak attacks. Speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf wrote on X on Wednesday that Iranian intelligence suggests “Iran’s enemies, with the support of a country in the region, are preparing an operation to occupy one of Iran’s islands.” Ghalibaf was likely alluding to the UAE and its claim to Abu Musa. “All enemy movements are under the surveillance of our armed forces. If they take any action, all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will be targeted without limitation by relentless attacks,” he added. What to watch: A source involved in the efforts to launch negotiations between the U.S. and Iran said Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are still trying to organize a meeting between the parties. The source said that while Iran rejected the initial U.S. list of demands, it did not rule out negotiations altogeher. “But mistrust is the problem. The commanders of the IRGC are very skeptical,” the source said, referring to the powerful Iranian military force. “But the mediators haven’t given up.” Just posted on Pars Today (https://t.me/parstodayrussian/199274#): I would have let this slide, except that yesterday either Pars or IRNA had a thing about how Bahrain used to be a part of Iran until “that stupid Shah” (their words, not mine) “lost it” in 1971. I found it very curious that now, of all times, they’d remind everyone of this, and color it not as “self-determination of the Bahraini people” (there was a referendum, after all), but an asset that had been “stupidly” “lost”. And now you have this. Curiouser and curiouser. I think it’s a sign that Iranian leadership too is increasingly going to uber hawkish hardliners without good diplomatic instincts. Doesn’t any US aggressive direct ground attack – where in Iran doesn’t really matter – trigger the dead hand/assured destruction response of Iran with direct attacks on the remaining energy infrastructure in the Gulf? And isn’t that essentially the guarantee of a global depression? Why hasn’t that dynamic changed from last week which triggered the Trump panic for the off-ramp? In some ways this brings “the end” before we will even know if the US attacks were (somehow) successful. My understanding (correction welcome) of “dead hand” mechanisms is that they cause actions (typically, retaliatory actions) to be taken in the event of destruction of the ordinary command authority to take those actions. This provides a deterrent to pre-emptive strikes designed to destroy those command authorities in the hope that such strikes would prevent retaliation. I think the answer to your question whether a ground incursion into Iran would trigger the “dead hand” mechanism is that (based on present information) it would not; the trigger for this is higher (a good thing, since triggering an “all out” missile strike, which would presumably include against Israel, might trigger Israeli escalation to its “last resort” weapons). The Iranians have been clear about their intentions. They have not warned that they would employ their last resort responses in the event of a ground incursion. Presumably they expect that they will be able to defeat such incursions using ordinary means; their warning that they would undertake their own incursions into neighboring states in response appears to be their currently threatened response to this kind of escalation. Kamikaze drones to right of them Shahed drones to left of them Missiles in front of them Volleyed and thundered Stormed at with shot and shell Boldly they rode and well Into the jaws of Death Into the mouth of hell Rode the forty four hundred When can their glory fade? O the wild charge they made! All the world wondered Honour the charge they made! Honour the Light Brigade Noble forty four hundred! Almost without exception, the US and Israel are described as the initiators of this war. I can’t remember a previous conflict where this was true. The Western media invariably describes the West as responding to some kind of foreign aggression. We saw this very clearly in Ukraine, even though Western powers fomented a coup in Ukraine and then spent 10 years building up their military forces in preparation for an attack on Russia. In the media, the Ukraine war just came out of nowhere with a sudden Russian attack for no apparent reason. It’s also de rigour any time Israel invades or attacks someplace, they are always “responding” to some trivial or pointless action by the enemy. I don’t know what makes this war different. One possibility is that the Western media has had a late breaking concern for their own reputation under conditions where the foreign media is freely reporting what happened in a very straightforward way. Whatever the reason, I hope it becomes the new norm. What is remarkable is the way leaders talk and the media coverage are diverging. A lot of (at least overtly pro US/Israel) leaders are sticking to the script, ie act as if Iran, somehow, started all these. No one else is buying that stuff. I think there are two overlapping issues here. One, unlike in previous US wars, the administration did not take even an iota of time, or make a scintilla of an effort, to lay down the propaganda groundwork. Or, if they wanted a surprise attack, blitz the airwaves with a coherent narrative immediately afterwards (which is how Panama and Grenada were done, if memory serves). Plus do the standard things like journalist embeds, scripted daily briefings (in lieu of Trump spouting every two hours), etc. Two, it seems pretty clear to a lot of people in Washington and the mainstream press, idiots though most of them may be – especially after the first few days, when Iran somehow failed to unconditionally surrender – that this is an albatross. Much easier to pre-emptively blame everything on Trump (or, if you’re a Republican, blame everything on Israel). So it’s not a “war of choice”, it’s “Trump’s personal war of choice”, is how I read this. I continue to believe that a majority of US political sponsors and Washington power centers do not see Trump as “their guy” – they’ll use him, but this isn’t a Bush, or an Obama, or even a Clinton (who, back in the 90s, was also sneered at quite a bit by the WaPo types like David Broder). Or a Gavin Newsom, if you’re into that sort of thing. And again, it helps if the war isn’t going well. Remember how large parts of the US MSM turned more or less against Iraq by 2007-2008, when “everybody” realized this wasn’t going well. Then all of a sudden it became “Bush’s war”, though everyone politely ignored their own role in cheerleading the original invasion… “Israel could launch tactical nuclear weapons at those entrances, at least in northern Iran where I believe I have read that the fallout would not reach Israel.” The physical fallout might not, but what of the political and moral fallout? Israel’s operations in Gaza have already made it a pariah in the eyes of much of the world; being only the second country to use such weapons in war would likely harden and extend that status. Northern Iran? Russia and Pakistan might have something to say about the fallout. With the suggestions of retaliations in kind should Israel use nukes, reported since the war started as coming from both countries, I think it’s over for Israel if they do that. I don’t think even kompromat on Trump could get the US to shield Israel from retaliatory strikes. I use the occasion to again rue raspberry jam’s departure from NC. They were the best source of anecdata for the situation on Israel. Now we have only the fog of war surrounding the news coming from there. Be that as it may, the question I want answered the most won’t come any time soon. Namely, whether Israel has crossed the point of no return as an advanced nation. Whether after this is all over, they’ll be reduced to another Middle East nation with limited economic prospects, an intense brain drain of distressed professionals resettling across the North Atlantic, leaving behind an intractable social rubble of genocidal Zionutters who have nothing to offer the world. And then on to the long decline and death of the settler project. We’ll only know that in retrospect, so for now I can only hope. At least, after this anyone would have to be crazy to choose Israel as an investment destination. I’m not as optimistic as some here who think Israel won’t be around by the end of the decade, at least in its present shape. But I do hope they won’t get to celebrate their centennial. Sorry to hear raspberry jam has left us. What happened? What happened to raspberry jam? It’s game on Trump says oil and stock market reaction to Iran conflict not as severe as he expected (CNBC) We’re nowhere near what we’d need to be to properly discipline Trump. Joe Kent long interview with Danny Davis Interesting stuff! Iran allows Spanish ships to use the Strait of Hormuz for free Spanish Prime Minister has been highly critical of Trump and Israel https://www.majorcadailybulletin.com/news/local/2026/03/25/141151/iran-allows-spanish-ships-use-the-strait-hormuz-for-free.html Ignatio? Sorry, *Ignacio* Donald Trump has claimed Iran is negotiating with the U.S. to end the current war but is “afraid” to admit it. The 79-year-old president made the remark at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s annual fundraising dinner on Wednesday evening. “They are negotiating, by the way,” Trump claimed of Iran. “They want to make a deal so badly but they are afraid to say it. Because they figure they will be killed by their own people. They are also afraid they will be killed by us.” https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-makes-frantic-excuse-after-irans-humiliating-reveal/?via=mobile&source=Reddit LOL. I can’t imagine why that might be? Per my post above, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were in talks with Pezeshkian. He doesn’t have the authority to stop things now, but I’m sure the zionist vision is to have Pezeshkian rule over a post-Supreme Leader, syrianised Iran as a de facto Shah. Everyone should book an appointment to go to the dentist. Get your teeth cleaned and get all outstanding dental work done. You must take care of your teeth. Any infection or inflammation goes by the lymph system from your teeth directly to your heart. Bad teeth will do you in before almost anything else save being run over by a beer truck. On your way home from the dentist, buy a dozen toothbrushes and lots of tooth powder. I also have one of those little battery powered ultrasonic tooth cleaners that blasts away plaque. Iran denies Trump’s claims: ‘We reject all negotiations – US has failed and Hormuz will remain closed’ https://www.ynetnews.com/article/0t2zpd7dr Uganda will join Iran war ‘on the side of Israel,’ military chief warns “Israel has a right to exist and attacks against her must stop,” Uganda’s Chief of Defense Forces Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba said during a series of X/Twitter posts expressing his support. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891223 Carney’s mega anti-Trump alliance starts quest to save world trade Nearly 40 nations are hatching a plan to save the World Trade Organization or, if it can’t be salvaged, to build a new order. https://www.politico.eu/article/mega-anti-us-donald-trump-alliance-quest-save-world-trade/ Trump says Khamenei is dead Trump also said he is hearing that many members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, military and other security and police forces no longer want to fight and are seeking immunity from the United States https://www.ynetnews.com/article/skie4tef11x “The aim is to coordinate “a plurilateral statement on WTO reform if we don’t manage to get an ambitious one in the multilateral sphere,” said the EU diplomat. That means that if the WTO’s members can’t come to a consensus, the EU and CPTPP will forge ahead on rules-based trade together alongside a coalition of the willing.” Interesting… This EU + CPTPP bloc would be about 26-27% of world GDP. Seems like digital economy is a big issue that they are separating themselves from the WTO on. It’ll be interesting to see if this amounts to anything. Israeli source: Commander of Revolutionary Guards naval force eliminated – responsible for Hormuz closure https://www.ynetnews.com/article/mp2s7nvy2 Pentagon considers diverting Ukraine military aid to the Middle East https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/26/us-iran-war-ukraine-missile-defense/ Iran Officially Confirms Military Support From Russia And China In War Against the US https://united24media.com/latest-news/iran-officially-confirms-military-support-from-russia-and-china-in-war-against-the-us-16882 Barrick to delay Pakistan copper-gold project amid Middle East conflict, FT reports https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2026:newsml_L4N40E0X0:0-barrick-to-delay-pakistan-copper-gold-project-amid-middle-east-conflict-ft-reports/ Helium shortage has started impacting tech supply chains, execs say https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/helium-shortage-has-started-impacting-tech-supply-chains-execs-say-2026-03-26 Iran allowing Malaysian vessels to pass in Strait, PM says after talks with regional leaders https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-allowing-malaysian-vessels-pass-strait-pm-says-after-talks-with-regional-2026-03-26/ Investors bet Iran war will boost Chinese renewables demand https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/investors-bet-iran-war-will-boost-chinese-renewables-demand-2026-03-24/ Nearly 2 months of fuel available, next 2 months also secured: Government [India] The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas said crude oil supplies have already been secured for the next 60 days. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) have tied up imports in advance, ensuring there is no gap in supply. https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/crude-oil-supply-fully-secured-india-has-60-days-of-stock-government-says-theres-no-supply-gap-2887361-2026-03-26 Missile debris kills 2 in Abu Dhabi amid new Iran salvo against Gulf https://www.dailysabah.com/world/mid-east/missile-debris-kills-2-in-abu-dhabi-amid-new-iran-salvo-against-gulf#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17745218514423&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailysabah.com%2Fworld%2Fmid-east%2Fmissile-debris-kills-2-in-abu-dhabi-amid-new-iran-salvo-against-gulf Iran’s top envoy says S. Korean ships can transit Strait of Hormuz only after coordination with Tehran https://www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/World-News/2026/03/26/korea-iran-envoy-south-korean-ships-hormuz-strait-coordination/6161774515105/ This Bloomberg op-ed was the first crack i’ve seen in MSM depiction of how bad this will get. Apologies if posted already. Finance Isn’t Prepared for an Iran Crisis. It Should Be Last Modified: 06:24 AM, Thu Mar 26, 2026 The Editors Bloomberg. 26 March 2026 Word Count: 525 (Bloomberg Opinion) — With the war in Iran entering its second month, markets are starting to look worried. Financial regulators should be, too. After an initial period of calm, investors appear to be recognizing the possibility that the conflict could get out of control and inflict long-term economic damage. Prices of bonds and stocks have fallen in unison, with the MSCI World Index down more than 5% and the CBOE Volatility Index — known as the “fear gauge” — hitting its highest point since the US unveiled its “Liberation Day” tariffs nearly a year ago. Add to these concerns unknowns such as the impact of artificial intelligence, the severity of troubles in private credit and the sustainability of the US government’s fiscal trajectory, and it’s hard to envision the full range of possible risks, let alone estimate their probabilities. The only certainty is the potential for the kind of surprises that can trigger market disruptions. The financial system might be better prepared if governments had heeded the lessons of the 2008 subprime-lending crisis, which destroyed millions of jobs and more than $1 trillion in annual economic output. Prudent capital requirements, leverage limits and backstop arrangements would ensure that banks and key intermediaries had ample loss-absorbing capacity and weren’t excessively dependent on short-term funding. Unfortunately, the US has moved to further reduce the already-inadequate capital that banks built up after 2008 — prompting Europe to follow suit. It’s enabling greater leverage among subprime corporate borrowers and potentially even crypto. It’s curtailing financial supervision at a time when risks are building at institutions ranging from insurers to investment funds, as the recent surge of losses and redemptions at private credit funds illustrates. In such an environment, it’s all the more important that regulators do what they can to identify and mitigate the most significant weaknesses. Where is leverage most dangerous? Where might sudden cash demands trigger self-reinforcing spirals of forced selling and falling prices? How can central banks intervene to keep markets functioning smoothly, ensuring that stress doesn’t wipe out the good with the bad? Such questions are more answerable than they used to be. The Bank of England, for example, has been developing a new kind of systemwide stress exercise that engages banks and other institutions to better understand their interconnections — a direction in which the European Central Bank is also moving. US authorities should do the same. Post-2008 reporting requirements also provide regulators with information, such as detailed trade and derivatives data, that can help detect the kinds of risk concentrations that brought down Archegos Capital Management in 2021 and upended the UK government bond market in 2022. The global financial system is vulnerable to the kind of shocks the Iran war may yet impose. It’s crucial that regulators make the best use of what resources they have. Air dropped mines in Shiraz, Iran. https://x.com/iribnews_irib/status/2036935237666824263#m Dimitri Lascaris (of Reason2Resist) who is reporting from Iran right now visited a village near Shiraz earlier today where such mines had been dropped and people have been killed or maimed. Israel or the U.S. (who had been accusing Iran of using cluster bombs) dropped actual cluster munitions in Iran (not just in Shiraz, but reportedly also in Tehran). Once again, “every accusation is a confession”. I recommend following Dimitri’s reports on the Reason2Resist YouTube channel to get a feel of the suffering Iranians are enduring in this war. Story from the WSJ: Russia Is Sharing Satellite Imagery and Drone Technology With Iran Moscow has expanded intelligence sharing and military cooperation to help keep Tehran in the fight against U.S. and Israeli military might https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-is-sharing-satellite-imagery-and-drone-technology-with-iran-0dd95e49 Taibbi’s latest reports a confirming tip he received. Racket news. public excerpt: Exclusive: Iranian Ambassador Met with Russian Arms Maker for “Development of Cooperation” An Iranian diplomat met with the CEO of Rostec, according to a letter obtained by Racket https://www.racket.news/p/exclusive-iranian-ambassador-met Just trying to play with ideas and I don’t understand diplomacy/negotiations very well, so can someone please provide input? If Iran actually pushes (as one of its many demands) that the US/Israel be put on trial for assassinating their head of state and numerous events before and after, what would the reaction be? Obviously the entire West would view this as a non-starter, but beyond that, would it be beneficial on Iran’s part to try something like this, or detrimental, or just completely inconsequential and a waste of time/rhetoric? Thanks! Assuming that the US just doesn’t sanction the ICC and everyone who works for it outright for trying to do that, the US also has it’s own law that authorizes it to invade the Hague to rescue the accused. This is kind of a dead end and a total waste of time/effort since the court is hugely Western leaning anyways. Think of how all these European signatories are threatening to arrest President Putin (issued a warrant for totally bogus reasons) if he flies over their territories while the same signatories look the other way when Netanyahu (who also has a warrant) flies over their territories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Protection_Act Iran is communicating their terms for surrender. To avoid ISR/US taking a pause to lick their wounds and then return to attack again, Iran needs the aggressors to be defeated. Defeated to the extent of agreeing to conditions that would have been deemed impossible until that point. Capitulation. The US finds the Iranian position to be absurd. Today with Danny Davis, Alex Mecouris expressed something that is being said elsewhere: he dismissively said that Iran’s demands are obviously not going to accepted. That is today, before real economic pain is felt in the US. Oddly enough, I think ISR is closer to a change of long-held assumptions than the US is. The US may soon begin to feel economic pain but ISR is being taken apart. In a sane world, the UN would have already stepped in against these blatant violations of international law and sent peacekeeping forces into the Zionist entity. In the world we actually live in, they’d need to catch the guilty parties first. If this were to happen, I imagine any trial would be a short one and justice swift. Probably won’t happen given the complicity of so many global elites, but a guy can dream. I am not sure if this is relevant, but I noticed that earlier this week the FCC, citing national security concerns, banned new consumer internet routers manufactured outside the US. “The only routers I know of that are manufactured in the US are some Starlink Wi-Fi routers, which are primarily made in Texas. Starlink is part of Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, but many of the components in these routers come from East Asia.” Source: https://www.wired.com/story/us-government-foreign-made-router-ban-explained/ “Effectively, this would stop foreign-made routers from being imported unless their manufacturers obtain an exemption, due to what the FCC called an ‘unacceptable risk to the national security of the United States or the safety and security of United States persons.'” Source: https://www.malwarebytes.com/blog/news/2026/03/new-fcc-router-ban-could-leave-home-networks-less-secure Although not explicitly stated, I assume these restrictions would also apply to most if not all foreign made cable modems. I welcome any feedback from readers of this site regarding whether or not this recent order is potentially connected with the administration’s planning for an extended global conflict. Routers are important, but most people don’t pay attention to them. Recommend reading this guy’s site: https://routersecurity.org/RouterNews.php I run a Draytek business router. Company is in Taiwan, response to reported vulnerabilities is prompt. listened to this while doin a mountain of dishes and making a couple of bulk dishes for the next week:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsuhZFzDz3w well worth y’all’s time, methinks. I hesitate to suggest the following fearing public ridicule but….. I am wondering,,,the comments about “head fakes” provoked the following question. What would happen if the US unilaterally agreed to pull its bases (which has already happened in Iraq and most of the rest have been destroyed making this kind of a moot point), but said nothing about Israel, leaving it to fend for itself… ie it gets thrown under the proverbial bus. The US has never had any allegiance to it’s many allies and deserts them when the going gets tough. It is what we do. Why not now as well? The timing would be about right and might even rehabilitate Trump’s declining political fortunes…..He could announce such a move as a result of the “talks” he claims to have been having with Iran. Sure, it is unlikely be we are just duplicitous enough to do it. It would be a great idea except it would require realism and would amount to an official abandonment of our imperial pretenses. It could also mean the end of the petrocapital system. I hate the term petrodollar, the issue is not the invoicing currency save to evade sanctions. It is where the holders of oil surpluses choose to invest. In the 1970s, it was always going to significantly in dollar assets due to the size of our economy and having far and away the best regulated and deepest capital markets. The US is still “least bad” in terms of regulation and disclosure, but the Gulf states had other reasons: it was part of the quid pro quo of the US protecting them militarily. Can’t NOT leave this pooh-pooh!