Bibi’s Caution and the October 7 Attacks

There’s a new wrinkle in the claims that Benjamin Netanyahu ignored a warning from the UAE before the October 7 attacks. The original narrative held that Bibi had been reliably told that something was coming from Gaza, and his unwillingness to pursue the lead resulted in the Hamas attacks. It is an explosive accusation in the midst of the first national election since those attacks three years ago. Netanyahu has denied them, though the claims are necessarily vague. What kind of attack was coming? Who specifically would be carrying it out, and from where exactly? “Terror from Gaza” isn’t enough to know what to do, though it’s possible that simply double-checking and tightening border security systems could have prevented some of the carnage. But whatever the specifics of the warning, one part of the claim seemed to have everybody’s agreement: that Netanyahu was too complacent about the status quo. Now the New York Times comes out with a story that adds some context. If the details are true—and there appears to be some documentary evidence for the reports—they throw a bit of a wrinkle into the narrative in an interesting way. From the Times: “Mr. Netanyahu gathered his security chiefs days later, on Oct. 1, 2023, for a meeting about the situation in the Gaza Strip, and never mentioned the warning, according to minutes of the meeting reviewed by The Times. “Instead, he told them that the goal should be to maintain calm in Gaza, and he pushed back when some security officials said that Israel should consider military strikes against senior Hamas leaders in Gaza who were overseeing attacks against Israelis in the West Bank, the minutes show. “At the meeting, details of which have not been previously reported, Mr. Netanyahu said that any Israeli action in Gaza might sabotage the prospect of Saudi Arabia establishing diplomatic relations with Israel — a deal the Israeli prime minister believed was imminent.” So the minutes of the prime minister’s meeting with security chiefs suggest that, regardless of the UAE warning, the subject of whether it was necessary or prudent to strike Hamas leaders in Gaza did come up. And Netanyahu did reject the proposed strikes. But why? Because he was negotiating a peace and normalization deal with the Saudis. This is important for a couple of reasons. One, the Biden administration was also involved in that negotiating process, so anything Bibi did to disrupt the talks would have seen him blamed by the president forevermore for the collapse of the deal. Two, the October 7 attacks really were aimed at blowing up a big move toward regional peace, and they did succeed in this. We already knew that Israel wanted peace and Gaza wanted war. We just didn’t know how badly Netanyahu’s government wanted peace. Badly enough, it turns out, to risk Israel’s immediate security. Three, a deal with the Saudis would have included a Palestinian component. Say what you will about Bibi, but he was about to sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia and the Biden team that would commit his government to at least taking steps toward Palestinian self-determination. What to make of this? If you know Netanyahu, you will not be surprised by any of this. But if you are part of the Western media and academic and NGO complex, you will be confused. After all, the belief in the West is that Bibi is a warmonger and an aggressive right-wing ideologue staunchly opposed to peace. It’s a recurring frustration with coverage of Israel, especially since Netanyahu has been the head of government for most of the past decade and a half. Bibi has always been cautious, not aggressive. And he has always prioritized stability over tumult. A fairer critique is that he is too timid to take big risks for peace. But now, even that critique is at least complicated by the revelation that October 7 may have been made worse because Netanyahu was taking precisely such risks for peace.