Biodefense Headlines

This week’s selections include the IAEA’s warning that Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant could face a station blackout within days without restored power. They also include new case counts showing the DRC’s Ebola outbreak has reached 6,250 confirmed cases as control efforts continue to fall short of international targets, and a warning that AI models can now design novel viruses as well as nature itself. FEATURED Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Plant Could Face Blackout Within Days, IAEA Warns The IAEA has brokered a seventh localized ceasefire, this time around a damaged power line north of Ukraine’s Dnipro River, to allow repairs that would restore off-site power to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which has run on emergency diesel generators since losing its last external power line on Aug. 20. With diesel reserves running low, the plant has cut its operating generators from four to two and begun running cooling pumps intermittently to conserve fuel, and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned the site could face a station blackout within days without restored power or new diesel deliveries. Although the plant has been shut down since September 2022 and therefore generates less decay heat than an operating reactor, Grossi called the situation “deeply concerning” and renewed calls for military restraint near the facility. IAEA DRC’s Ebola Outbreak Passes 6,250 Cases as Response Falls Short of Global Targets The DRC’s Ebola outbreak has reached 6,250 cases and 3,039 deaths, as a CDC analysis in MMWR finds the response remains below target on all five critical control indicators, with only 15 to 20 percent of new cases linked to known transmission chains against a target above 90 percent. WHO researchers have begun using anonymized cell phone data to predict where outbreak clusters may emerge next, an approach never before used in an Ebola response, as officials struggle to contain transmission in its fourth month. The outbreak reached roughly 5,000 cases within just 100 days, an unprecedented pace compared with past epidemics, and continues to unfold amid armed conflict, mass displacement, and constrained access for response teams across eastern DRC. CIDRAP AI Can Now Design Viruses. We Need Biosecurity Guardrails Now Biosecurity expert Steph Guerra warns that an Aug. 6 Science paper showing AI models can design novel bacteria-infecting viruses as well as nature itself signals a narrowing window to build safeguards before the technology matures further. She calls for mandatory gene synthesis screening, an approach already endorsed by leading AI company CEOs, paired with digital controls on training datasets and pathogen early-warning systems, along with international coordination, particularly with China. Guerra notes the capability is not yet advanced enough to design human-infecting viruses, and producing even the bacteria-infecting viruses in the Science study required elite scientists with state-of-the-art equipment, but argues visible, rapid-response capacity could deter future misuse before that gap closes. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists BIOSECURITY + BIOPREPAREDNESS How the White House Can Get Ahead of the Next Biological Threat Biodefense expert Asha M. George argues that while White House biodefense staffing cuts reported by the Washington Post are concerning, reorganization alone does not necessarily signal reduced preparedness, and the administration should act now rather than wait for a crisis to rebuild capacity. She recommends putting the national security advisor in charge of biodefense, expanding NSC staff on the issue, and updating both the National Biodefense Strategy and the Pentagon’s 2023 Biological Posture Review to reflect threats from state programs, natural disease, and AI-enabled pathogen design. Atlantic Council Scientific Societies Warn Against Debarring Virologist Ralph Baric Without Evidence Three leading scientific societies, the American Society for Virology, the American Society for Microbiology, and the Infectious Diseases Society of America, published a joint editorial expressing alarm over HHS’s proposed suspension and debarment of virologist Ralph Baric absent any publicly presented evidence of research misconduct. The societies note Baric’s work was approved by NIH and institutional biosafety committees at the time and warn that pursuing debarment without transparent evidence risks undermining pandemic preparedness and the broader U.S. scientific enterprise. Journal of Virology Preparedness Starts with Ready Jurisdictions: How PAHPA Strengthens America’s Medical Countermeasure System In an ASPR blog post marking National Preparedness Month, Strategic National Stockpile director Steven A. Adams describes the Jurisdictional Stockpile Program, which helps states, tribes, territories, and localities build their own sustainable medical countermeasure reserves to complement the federal stockpile established under the 2006 Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act. The post arrives as PAHPA’s comprehensive reauthorization remains stalled in Congress: the law’s authorization lapsed in September 2023, and core programs including the Stockpile have survived only through temporary extensions attached to short-term funding bills. ASPR POLICY + GOVERNMENT Inside the D.O.J.’s Investigation of Fauci and Other Virus Scientists F.B.I. agents and federal prosecutors have sought phone, email, grant, and payment records, as well as grand jury testimony, from at least eight scientists, including Dr. Anthony Fauci and Nobel laureate Richard Roberts, in an investigation of unusual scope into COVID-19’s origins that intensified after former F.B.I. deputy director Dan Bongino pushed agents in 2025 to scrutinize government researchers more aggressively. Many scientists view the effort as an attempt to punish political enemies and deflect blame for the pandemic’s toll. The New York Times Kennedy Hires Covid Vaccine Skeptic to Look at Dubious Claims of Military Deaths HHS has hired Lt. Col. Theresa Long, an Army doctor with no specialized training in vaccines or viruses, to investigate unsubstantiated claims that more than 2,500 U.S. service members died after receiving COVID-19 vaccines, despite Pentagon reports in March and July 2025 finding no such deaths. Long has echoed Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s debunked claims linking vaccines to autism and told lawyers she believes a 2026 Pentagon report, which found only a transient, known myocarditis signal, cherry-picked its data. The New York Times Spending Deal Comes With a Bonus: Blocking Political Control of Grants Congress’s stopgap funding measure, passed by the House and expected to be signed by President Trump, includes Senate-inserted language from Sens. Patty Murray and Susan Collins that blocks the White House Office of Management and Budget from implementing its proposed rule giving political appointees control over federal research grants, at least until the measure expires December 11. The rule, which Global Biodefense has previously reported could subordinate peer review to political discretion, was blocked by margins of 90-6 in the Senate and 370-48 in the House. Ars Technica USDA Reportedly Shelves Cyclospora Research Amid Relocations and Fund Cuts The Trump administration is reportedly shuttering two of the USDA’s three cyclospora research projects after Congress defunded them, while the third, slated to relocate from Maryland to Iowa, has seen every scientist working on the parasite decline to move, according to a related Politico investigation. The closures come as the CDC has recorded more than 17,000 cyclosporiasis cases since May 1, one of the largest foodborne illness outbreaks in recent U.S. history, and researchers warn it could take decades to rebuild the expertise being lost. The Guardian Pentagon Sought to Divert NIH Funds for Defense Use Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, says the Pentagon signed an interagency agreement in early August that could give it access to billions of dollars from NIH’s infectious disease research budget, an arrangement Congress says was not proactively disclosed. The Pentagon and HHS describe the agreement as collaboration on therapeutics, diagnostics, and PPE, but DeLauro contends it would divert NIAID funds intended for HIV, influenza, and tuberculosis research to help cover Pentagon budget pressures from the war with Iran. The Hill US Proposal to Eliminate PAHO Funding Raises Alarm Over Health Security in Americas The Trump administration’s FY2027 budget proposes eliminating U.S. funding for the Pan American Health Organization, calling it a “corrupt” organization, even though the U.S. is PAHO’s largest funder and already owes nearly $135 million in unpaid dues since 2024. PAHO has cut its budget 17 percent and its workforce from 1,042 to about 869 positions in response, while a bipartisan coalition of more than 100 former officials warns the move would leave a vacuum for strategic competitors to fill. Health Policy Watch Canada Recruits Dozens of US Scholars — Including Several Science Stars Canada announced Aug. 27 that it recruited 64 researchers, 48 of them from the United States, offering a combined 500 million Canadian dollars (about $360 million) over eight years through new research chair programs designed to capitalize on U.S. funding uncertainty. RNA biologist Phillip Zamore, moving to McGill after one of his NIH grants sat undecided for 18 months, is among the recruits, and science policy analysts call the brain drain “entirely predictable” given the Trump administration’s research funding cuts. Nature What the 2026 UN Pandemic Preparedness Summit Needs to Deliver Ahead of the UN’s September high-level meeting on pandemic preparedness in New York, a commentary argues success should be measured by a credible governance framework rather than another political declaration, urging progress on three fronts: concluding the WHO Pandemic Agreement’s pathogen-sharing negotiations, securing the roughly $15 billion in annual financing experts say preparedness requires, and strengthening regional accountability as major global monitoring bodies near the end of their mandates. The authors cite the DRC and Uganda Ebola outbreaks, where pledged funds have been disbursed far slower than needs have grown, as evidence of the gap between commitments and delivery. The Lancet Global Health Modeling Study Finds Pandemic Losses Could Reach 439% of GDP, Depending on Closure Strategy A modeling study projects that total socioeconomic losses from a future respiratory pandemic, combining health, economic, and educational costs, could range from under 3 percent of GDP for a mild pandemic to as much as 439 percent of GDP for a catastrophic one, depending on country income level and closure strategy. No-closure approaches minimized projected losses for milder diseases, while reactive business and school closures minimized losses for severe ones, though the optimal strategy varied by income group. Nature Health MEDICAL COUNTERMEASURES FDA Issues Emergency Use Authorization for Drugs to Prevent and Treat New World Screwworm in Dogs and Cats The FDA issued an emergency use authorization for Capstar (nitenpyram) tablets and expanded the existing generic version’s authorization to cover prevention, not just treatment, of New World screwworm infestations in dogs, puppies, cats, and kittens weighing at least two pounds. The agency said it is the first authorized prevention option for the parasite in pets, addressing a previously unmet need as the pest’s range in the U.S. remains under close monitoring. FDA Leading Medical Groups Update Flu, COVID Vaccine Recommendations Amid Confusion The Vaccine Integrity Project and the American Medical Association released independent 2026-27 vaccine recommendations for flu, COVID-19, and RSV, finding no new safety concerns and concluding immunization provides meaningful protection against hospitalization and death. The AMA recommends the flu vaccine for all children six months and older, COVID-19 vaccination for most children and all adults annually, and a one-time RSV shot for adults 50 to 74 at elevated risk, joining other medical groups issuing independent guidance as federal vaccine schedules have shifted. The Hill ORTHOPOXVIRUSES Global Initiative Launched to Improve Access to Mpox Vaccines Gavi and the International Coordinating Group on Vaccine Provision launched a permanent global mpox vaccine stockpile on Aug. 27, building on the ad hoc mechanism used during the 2024 mpox emergency to give all countries, not just wealthier ones, timely access to vaccines during outbreaks. Since January 2022, 145 countries and territories have reported 190,683 confirmed mpox cases and 529 deaths, with two-thirds of cases occurring in the African region. World Health Organization Decades-Old Smallpox Vaccines Still Offer Protection, but Less for Cancer and Chronic Disease Patients A study analyzing more than 3,200 serum samples from a Chinese hospital found that individuals with historical smallpox vaccination still carry detectable antibodies decades later, but those with chronic disease or cancer had significantly lower titers than healthy vaccinated individuals. An accompanying exploratory model suggested immunocompromised populations would face higher simulated infection and mortality in a hypothetical smallpox outbreak, with the highest infection burden among those aged 15 to 19 and the highest mortality among those 70 and older. Journal of Translational Medicine AVIAN + SWINE INFLUENZA Fearing Traumatic Seal Die-Off, Australia Moves to Evacuate Polar Research Station The Australian Antarctic Division is evacuating all 24 staff from its Macquarie Island research station in early October, citing the psychological toll of potentially witnessing mass die-offs among the island’s 19,000 breeding southern elephant seals as highly pathogenic H5N1 approaches, after the virus killed roughly 53,000 seals on South Georgia in 2023 and three-quarters of pups on Australia’s Heard and McDonald Islands last October. Some scientists praised the focus on staff wellbeing, but others questioned why a full evacuation, rather than a smaller team or enhanced biosecurity, was the only option considered. Science SURVEILLANCE + DETECTION AI Models Are Being Used to Track Zoonotic Diseases. Will They Prevent the Next Pandemic? Researchers are increasingly using AI models to identify and track zoonotic disease risk, including LucaProt, a deep-learning tool that identified 70,458 previously unknown RNA virus species from public genetic databases in 2024, the largest single-study virus discovery on record. Firms like BlueDot use AI to scan news and travel data in 65 languages to flag outbreak risk, while Boston University’s BEACON dashboard combines AI and human experts to track the ongoing DRC Ebola outbreak for more than 227,000 users worldwide. Nature INFECTIOUS DISEASES When Do Infections Lead to Long COVID? Scientists Close In on Triggers and Treatments for Post-Viral Syndromes An estimated 400 million people worldwide have long COVID, with a roughly $1 trillion annual economic burden, and researchers are converging on immune dysfunction, including autoantibodies, and viral persistence as the two leading mechanisms driving long COVID and related post-infection syndromes like ME/CFS. A small Norwegian trial of daratumumab, which targets antibody-producing plasmablasts, showed benefits lasting up to two years in some patients, prompting a larger placebo-controlled trial launched in 2025 with results expected between 2028 and 2030. Nature DRC EBOLA OUTBREAK WHO Says Evidence Still Insufficient That Ebola Vaccine Protects Against Bundibugyo Strain Updated WHO guidance released Aug. 31 concludes that evidence remains insufficient to determine whether Ervebo, the only licensed Ebola vaccine, provides meaningful protection against the Bundibugyo virus species driving the DRC outbreak, since cross-reactive antibody levels run three to five times lower than against the strain it targets. WHO recommends the vaccine be used only within research protocols, prioritizing a ring randomized controlled trial, and that any broader use begin with health care and frontline workers under a comprehensive risk-mitigation plan. World Health Organization Accelerating the Research Response to the Bundibugyo Virus Emergency A commentary in Nature Immunology describes an open evidence map assembled by CEPI-commissioned researchers to catalogue the sparse immunology literature on Bundibugyo virus, just 49 publications compared with 857 for Ebola virus, giving the field a fast, organized starting point as it pivots research toward the ongoing DRC outbreak. The map highlights urgent gaps, including limited cross-reactivity between Ebola and Bundibugyo glycoproteins that leaves vaccine efficacy uncertain and just ten studies of immunity in human survivors, underscoring the need for standardized immunoassays to support vaccine and treatment development. Nature Immunology HISTORICAL REFLECTIONS Medieval Manuscripts Are “Biological Time Capsules” for Deadly Sheeppox Virus Researchers extracted and sequenced sheeppox virus DNA preserved in the sheepskin parchment of medieval manuscripts held at Cambridge, Yale, and other collections, recovering 21 ancient viral genomes spanning from 1700 BCE to early modern Europe, according to a study in Science Advances. The genomic analysis found sheeppox diverged from the related goatpox and lumpy skin disease viruses between 11,500 and 3,700 years ago, roughly coinciding with the domestication of livestock in Europe, and suggests archives worldwide may hold similar genetic records of historical animal disease outbreaks. Ars Technica ALSO READING Mirror Life and the Case for Adaptive Risk Governance – Health Security Biological Threat Reduction in Lao PDR: Implementation of a Comprehensive Biorisk Program with Positive Impact on the Local Research Ecosystem – Applied Biosafety Development of immunoassay methods for ricin and application in the OPCW international proficiency test – Analytical Biochemistry Pan-Ebolavirus nanoparticle vaccine provides protection in rodents from lethal infection by Zaire and Sudan viruses – Nature Communications Chikungunya waves in 2025 signal risk of endemicity in China – PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases Airborne Virus Shedding of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Compared to Influenza A Virus in Hospitalized Patients – Journal of Medical Virology This content was researched and sourced by Global Biodefense editors and reported with Claude AI assistance for drafting and editing.