AgentHomeID - Agent-based modelling of building stock transformation: A multi-scale framework for policy assessment and infrastructure planning

Electrical Engineering and Systems Science > Systems and Control [Submitted on 4 Sep 2026] Title:AgentHomeID - Agent-based modelling of building stock transformation: A multi-scale framework for policy assessment and infrastructure planning View PDF HTML (experimental)Abstract:Decarbonising the building sector is central to meeting climate targets, yet existing models rarely capture the interaction between system-level transformation dynamics and heterogeneous individual investment decisions. This work presents AgentHomeID, an agent-based model of building stock evolution in which owner behaviour, techno-economic constraints, and regulatory frameworks are represented explicitly at the level of individual buildings and their owners. The model differentiates owner-occupiers, private landlords, and institutional owners, using willingness-to-pay (WTP) parameters estimated from empirical decision-maker studies, and operates on both representative building archetypes and real building data derived from geographic information systems (GIS). We demonstrate this versatility across three applications. At national scale, scenario analysis for Germany to 2045 shows that removing binding renewable heating requirements substantially raises final energy demand even where envelope refurbishment is unchanged, and that subsidy allocation and investment activity diverge sharply across owner types and income quartiles, with the lowest quartiles persistently underinvesting. At regional scale, bottom-up simulation for a German distribution grid planning region yields spatially concentrated heat pump uptake at NUTS-3 level that differs from aggregated top-down projections in both magnitude and spatial distribution. At urban block level, the same simulations resolve substation-level load heterogeneity and show that integrated system peaks driven by heat pumps, electric vehicles, and photovoltaics do not coincide with individual technology peaks. Across all three scales, owner heterogeneity and local structure materially shape transition pathways, indicating that they should be represented explicitly in models used for policy assessment and infrastructure planning. Current browse context: eess.SY References & Citations Loading... Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Recommenders and Search Tools Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.