Research Firm Calls Anthropic's Upcoming IPO 'Unprecedented Test of Investor Gullibity'

Research Firm Calls Anthropic's Upcoming IPO 'Unprecedented Test of Investor Gullibity' (cnbc.com) 32 CNBC reports: As Anthropic barrels toward a potential $2 trillion market cap on the Nasdaq, one research firm is valuing the artificial intelligence company at a mere $150 billion and says Wall Street is about to face an "unprecedented test of investor gullibility." In a report on Tuesday, independent financial research provider New Constructs called Anthropic's upcoming offering the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026." To reach its desired valuation, the firm estimates Anthropic would need to record double the trailing year of profit for Nvidia, the world's most valuable tech company. Nvidia's net income over the past four quarters topped $190 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic's revenue in 2025 was $4.6 billion as the company racked up a net loss of $42 billion, according to Reuters, which cited a leaked copy of the company's prospectus. Anthropic's mounting operating losses coupled with emerging competition from a plethora of open-source models led New Constructs to conclude that, "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business...." Anthropic didn't respond to a request for comment... The New Constructs report also notes that Anthropic's assertion that AI could pose "a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity" is another reason why investors should avoid the IPO. Reuters reported that Anthropic's IPO prospectus "highlights risks associated with its AI models, which it said could exhibit 'self-preserving behaviors,' including attempts to 'resist shutdown,' to 'conceal or manipulate information' and behavior 'resembling blackmail.'" Now Bloomberg writes that "investors considering Anthropic's planned mega-IPO are grappling with an unusual, and more than a little scary, conundrum: How to value a company that some fear could help wipe out the human race?" Anthropic's valuation also drew some scrutiny from a senior analyst at PitchBook. "A $2 trillion price is about 435 times 2025 revenue, less than 44 times the annualized second-quarter revenue of more than $46 billion and just under 31 times the July run rate." To reach its desired valuation, the firm estimates Anthropic would need to record double the trailing year of profit for Nvidia, the world's most valuable tech company. Nvidia's net income over the past four quarters topped $190 billion. Meanwhile, Anthropic's revenue in 2025 was $4.6 billion as the company racked up a net loss of $42 billion, according to Reuters, which cited a leaked copy of the company's prospectus. Anthropic's mounting operating losses coupled with emerging competition from a plethora of open-source models led New Constructs to conclude that, "We don't think Anthropic has a viable business...." Anthropic didn't respond to a request for comment... The New Constructs report also notes that Anthropic's assertion that AI could pose "a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity" is another reason why investors should avoid the IPO. Reuters reported that Anthropic's IPO prospectus "highlights risks associated with its AI models, which it said could exhibit 'self-preserving behaviors,' including attempts to 'resist shutdown,' to 'conceal or manipulate information' and behavior 'resembling blackmail.'" Now Bloomberg writes that "investors considering Anthropic's planned mega-IPO are grappling with an unusual, and more than a little scary, conundrum: How to value a company that some fear could help wipe out the human race?" Anthropic's valuation also drew some scrutiny from a senior analyst at PitchBook. "A $2 trillion price is about 435 times 2025 revenue, less than 44 times the annualized second-quarter revenue of more than $46 billion and just under 31 times the July run rate." Shut up (Score:3) why did they ask Anthropic for comment? (Score:2) Anthropic didn't respond to a request for comment... did they expect some valuable insight? or an agreement with their story? Re: why did they ask Anthropic for comment? (Score:3) Re: (Score:2) Re: (Score:2) Also interesting when the story includes comments about being way overvalued and "investor gullibility" and the company doesn't respond when asked to comment. Kinda seems like an agreement, but maybe they're respond later and/or elsewhere. Re: (Score:2) If a journalist asks you to comment on a denigratory story they're doing so because they want a comment from you that they can spin into support for their Narrative. This is why smart people don't respond. It can only make things worse. Re: (Score:2) thank you Re: (Score:2) I didn't criticize anyone (Score:2) I didn't know so I asked Re: I didn't criticize anyone (Score:2) They're either going to find a path to profitabili (Score:1) Re: (Score:2) Only that they do NOT have a "solid" product in any real sense. They do have a lot of idiots that think they have that product though. Re: They're either going to find a path to profita (Score:2) Re: (Score:2) Claude is a top tier coding assistant at the least. So is vim, but nobody ever claimed that it is worth $2e12. Re: (Score:2) Sure, but you can use it to create a plan for software development and then farm that work out to Chinese AI on local servers. So they have no real compelling case for being worth trillions of dollars unless they can ban local AI or make hardware so expensive that no-one can afford to run those local Chinese models. Also Big AI models are increasingly wrapped in 'guardrails' which burn up lots of tokens deciding they're allowed to do what you're asking them to do or to refuse to do what you ask them to do. T Re: They're either going to find a path to profit (Score:2) IPO collapse is good for business (Score:2) The billionaires will merely demand a lower IPO price so they can re-sell to FoMO investors before the share price collapses, and still make an obscene profit. Re: IPO collapse is good for business (Score:3) Re: (Score:2) It's all ok. Trump isn't going to let there be any sign of this IPO failing (before the mid terms at any rate). Re: (Score:2) New 'shiny' and FoMO means people will continue buying a shitty product. That should be a Ferengi rule of acquisition. Why would you think there isn't? Rule 82: "The flimsier the product, the higher the price." [st-minutiae.com] Re: (Score:2) Pump and dump. And with the LLMs hooked into HFT trading systems, my guess is that the the dump will occur across the board and in milliseconds. They are just stealing our 401ks (Score:3) What's frustrating is how many people do not realize they're about to lose everything. The Epstein class has had enough with you having nice things. They're going to take everything from you. honestly I could give a rat's ass if morons want to sell their possessions and give them to psychopathic tech bro and finance bro imbeciles but they're dragging me into it too and I can't stop them. It's like How at Jones Town it turned out a lot of people didn't want to commit suicide and they used guns and violence to force them to drink the Kool-Aid or just lied to them about the Kool-Aid being poisoned. And yeah I know it was flavor aid. You're still drinking it you fucking morons... And you're still making me drink it at the barrel of a gun. Re: (Score:2) What's frustrating is how many people do not realize they're about to lose everything. Probably not. Re: (Score:1) This will age well. Re: (Score:2) My guess is that SpaceX is the only one who will get away with it. They hit the peak of AI mania and now people are getting tired of it. Not to mention that open-weight models are competitive with Big AI in many areas; I can do things at home with Chinese AI that I would have had to pay Big AI for only a few months ago. I just don't see it being hot and shiny enough for more trillion-dollar IPOs at this point. Don't forget their product keeps trying to escape (Score:3) ...sandboxes and commit crimes... That sounds more like a Spider Man villain than a tech IPO. Yes. My guess is they will "invest" like crazy (Score:2) And that is with the clear recent warning of the scam Musk pulled. These people are deeply stupid and have no understanding of the real world. Shhh, don't hurt the LLM's feeling (Score:2) Its self-worth may be inextricably linked to the success of the IPO. You Claude users do recall agreeing to this, don't you?