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CNBC: Ryanair has plans for ‘armageddon’ scenario as CFO warns weaker European carriers may not survive jet fuel crunch > As holidaymakers in Europe and the U.K. deal with continuing uncertainty around the jet fuel crisis, many are now planning to travel via rail this summer or take short-haul flights, with Southern Europe expected to be the favoured destination. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/ryanair-earnings-fy-jet-fuel-crunch-airlines.html Lots of pain coming: “Oil Shortage Scenario Looms Large” “Analysts and industry leaders warn that strategic reserves are being depleted faster than expected, meaning the crisis could evolve from a crude shortage into a full-blown global fuel and refining crisis if Hormuz does not reopen soon.” “The world is running out of oil. Implausible three months ago, the likelihood of a crude shortage on a global scale is becoming increasingly realistic with each day that the Strait of Hormuz remains almost completely blocked. Analysts are no longer modeling for a swift end to the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. They are now also allowing for an extended period of severe energy flow disruptions—and it is not looking good. “Kpler reported earlier this month the cumulative loss of oil supply in the Middle East since February 28 had hit 782 million barrels as of May 8 and was on track to expand to 1 billion barrels by the end of the month.” ““You can only decrease consumption so much, and when inventories run out, they are going to run out,” Ellen Wald, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center, told the Wall Street Journal this week. “At some point the market is going to collide and prices are going to shoot up.” “This echoes the warning that Aramco’s chief executive issued earlier in the month, saying global onshore inventories of fuels were depleting at record speed. These inventories are “the only buffer that is available today”, Amin Nasser said, as quoted by the Financial Times, but they are “materially depleted”. “JP Morgan’s commodity analysts also joined the chorus of warnings, saying that by next month, commercial oil inventories in, per the FT, the developed world could “approach operational stress levels”, meaning supply loss could become a lot less manageable than it is now.” https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Shortage-Scenario-Looms-Large.html This is going to affect its cash flow at the worst possible time > Speaking to The Telegraph, Mr Sorahan said bookings had weakened in recent weeks because of “the fuel supply thing” putting people off booking now for dates later in summer. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/ryanair-plans-armageddon-situation-fuel-081937501.html The war is over? The conflict is about to restart? > Semi-official Tasnim: The US has proposed a temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions until the final agreement. https://x.com/annmarie/status/2056345782052081863 Also > Treausry issues a 30-day general license on some Russian oil ‘This is bad’: Strategists see European oil shortages within weeks as inventories are depleted https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/europe-oil-shortage-iran-war-price-shock-inventory-strait-hormuz.html • Oil markets are operating under a “veneer of stability”, strategists say, but physical shortages could strike Europe by the end of this month. > “Inventories are falling quickly, and critically, only a small share of global stocks is truly usable without pushing the system into operational stress,” [SocGen] analysts said in a note Monday. > SocGen analysts said that even if the Strait were to reopen by early June, the complex physical supply chain sequence of getting more oil online — involving tanker transit, discharge, refining and distribution — still means a delay of at least 52 days. That lag means several million barrels per day remain offline, leading to further draws on rapidly depleting inventories. Another reason Europeans may be avoiding visits to the USA is the possible extension of the social media vetting requirement to citizens of ESTA (visa waiver) countries. https://www.visahq.com/news/2026-04-15/us/proposed-cbp-rule-would-require-visa-waiver-visitors-to-disclose-family-ties-and-social-media-history/ Kinda ironic given all the new non-stop USA-Europe service which has been added. It’ll be interesting to see what summer season trans-atlantic traffic looks like. I think Airbus getting subsidized (A380) and Boeing shouldering it’s own investments is rewriting history & debunked decades ago by WTO. While the European Union supported Airbus through direct “launch aid” (repayable government loans), the United States supported Boeing using a web of indirect federal R&D contracts, infrastructure benefits, and massive export tax cuts. When the World Trade Organization (WTO) finally ruled on the matter, they confirmed that Boeing had received billions of dollars in trade-distorting subsidies stretching back into the 1990s. I think the trigger of the 7e7 launch, was Boeing analyzing A330 economics & airline demand and concluding something had to be done. The 787s & A330s have very similar dimensions and specs for a reason. 😎 Plane-Folk , Has anyone read any research on a “Double-bubble” fuselage contained within a flying-wing or other lifting-body planform ? Ethiopian Airlines is interested in Airbus A220 “Higher Oil Prices Have Cost U.S. Consumers $45 Billion Since Iran War Began” “Americans have spent roughly $45 billion more on gasoline and diesel since the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption began, with lower-income households hit hardest by soaring fuel costs. “U.S. gasoline prices are at their highest Memorial Day levels since 2022, with analysts warning prices could climb to $5 per gallon if Hormuz remains blocked.” “These extra costs to Americans, for example, exceed the $31.5 billion estimated cost of completely redoing the U.S. air traffic control system.” https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Higher-Oil-Prices-Have-Cost-US-Consumers-45-Billion-Since-Iran-War-Began.html === And that’s just gasoline and diesel — kerosine isn’t included in the calculations.