Canadians hate being called the 51st state. But they don’t mind moving south of the border, study says

Canadians hate being called the 51st state. But they don't mind moving south of the border, study says The researchers expected job opportunities to be the No. 1 reason for moving to the U.S., but were surprised by what came in at No. 2 WASHINGTON, D.C. — Canadians may hate the idea of U.S. statehood, but some still see the grass as greener across the border. The question is why, and a new study says the answer is more complicated than tax envy or better jobs. The data tell a mixed story: More Canadians seem to be heading to the U.S. in recent years, even as long-term permanent migration has declined. Nearly 20,000 Canadians emigrated to the U.S. permanently in 2022, a 65 per cent increase from the year before, according to Statistics Canada. But the average number of native-born Canadian-born people granted permanent U.S. residence fell from 15,600 in the late 2000s to nearly 11,000 in the late 2010s. A new study, “Beyond the Borders: Unraveling Reasons for Canadians’ Relocation to the United States,” by Neil Seeman, an associate professor at the University of Toronto, and Jack Mintz, president’s fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, tries to explain why Canadians are choosing the U.S. The researchers expected job opportunities to rank No. 1 but were surprised by what came in at No. 2. “We had this surprise finding that health-care access and quality was a very close tie (to jobs),” said Seeman. Polling 2,003 U.S.-based adult web users in August 2024 who were “observers” of Canadians who relocated to their U.S. state within the past three years, Seeman and Mintz found that access to better job opportunities was the most common driver at 27.7 per cent. Health-care quality and access, meanwhile, accounted for 25.6 per cent, while tax consideration and business taxes came in at 10.1 and 4.3 per cent, respectively. “It’s entirely appropriate to be obsessed with the brain drain … to the United States,” said Seeman. “But at the same time, we should be equally obsessed with understanding why Canadians are … moving for health-care reasons.” Valerie Lacarte, senior policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute in Washington, was surprised but cautioned that access versus quality of care should be considered. Lacarte, who moved to Washington from Montreal after university for work, said she understands the draw. But she was perplexed by the notion of health care being a close second. “It’s not really an apples-to-apples comparison,” Lacarte said. “Access is much broader in Canada, but if you have the right insurance in the U.S., care can be much faster.” Canadian migrants to the U.S., she said, are typically highly skilled and job-driven, with higher education and income levels than many other migrants. Because many come through employer-sponsored pathways, they are also more likely to have private health insurance. Access to private insurance is key, she said. About 78 per cent of Canadian immigrants in the U.S. have private health coverage, compared with 69 per cent of U.S.-born citizens. “For higher-skilled Canadians with employer-sponsored insurance, I can see why that would be a pull factor.” Randy Clare, a Canadian living in South Carolina, rejects that Canadians should move to the U.S. for better health care, noting that the U.S. system is expensive, more fragmented, and often more stressful. He cautions that the U.S. only offers the “illusion of choice.” “You have all this choice, but your insurance company does the choosing, not you,” he warns, noting how his wife’s breast cancer care was disrupted by an insurer change that left her scrambling to reassemble her care team just weeks before surgery. While Clare loves his life in America, he does wonder whether he’ll one day be forced to move back to Canada due to costs. “My wife and I are one devastating diagnosis away from being back in Vancouver,” he said, noting how insurance gaps can be financially crippling in America. Stuart Martin, a Canadian living in Los Angeles, also pointed to the wider social safety net in Canada and the efficiency versus equity tradeoff. “In Canada, you have a support system… that can catch you. In the U.S., it doesn’t feel like you have a safety net,” he said. “The difference… is just the immediacy of access,” he said, pointing to a recent visit with his GP and how he was shocked to have been granted access to an allergy specialist within days, rather than months. While there was disagreement with the study over health care, most of the Canadians in the U.S. agreed that access to greater opportunities was a prime motivator. “I came from a small town in southern Ontario. My backyard was cornfields,” said David Zeyl, who moved to Michigan in the 1990s for university and is now looking to apply for U.S. citizenship. “I was looking for something bigger, a little more opportunity.” In Canada, you have a support system… that can catch you. In the U.S., it doesn’t feel like you have a safety net Martin, originally from Vancouver, said he moved for a work opportunity, noting the different market scale and access to capital, especially in PR and tech. “The salary range here compared to Canada is just vastly different,” he said. “The things you can do with businesses… the marketing activities… it’s on a completely different level.” The study also points to taxation concerns, and that’s something Cleveland-based immigration lawyer Richard Herman has seen firsthand. Since COVID, he has had a steady stream of Canadian clients, and “more often than not, it’s a business owner,” he said. “They feel like Canada’s going in the wrong direction,” he said, noting how he often hears things like “‘Our taxes are extremely high.’” Seeman agreed. Entrepreneurs, he said, “find it very, very difficult to conceive, hatch and sustain a business in Canada.” But just because people are finding incentives to leave doesn’t mean they will stay away. The study also found that 38 per cent of Canadian relocators are open to returning. “We’ve got a really exciting opportunity,” Seeman said, “to return to that era where Canada was a magnet, and Canada was a place that people came and stayed.” He said improved health-care access and quality should be a priority for Ottawa, along with more competitive tax structures. Herman also thinks Canada has an opportunity to stem the flow of leavers by “fixing the tax code.” Lacarte, meanwhile, says Ottawa could do more outreach to those who have already left, noting that Canada’s large public sector can make it hard for outsiders to re-enter the system. National Post Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our newsletters here. Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.