The Iran Disaster Will Likely Be Job One

WaPo did a story about the investigations Democrats would like to do if they win the House. It’s a decent list: - Trump family looting and corruption (building on this running tracker House Oversight Dems have done), including contracts won by Trump’s failsons, his IRS “settlement,” and his conversion of Truth Social into an insider trading scam - Giveaways to supporters, whether in the form of pardons or mining and gas deals - His replacement of American landmarks with tributes to himself, including the no-bid contracts that have destroyed those landmarks - ICE, including Lewanoemski’s corruption, the death rates in ICE concentrations camps, and goon misconduct - Various abuse of power in the government, including politicizing intelligence - Politicized prosecutions, including the weaponization fund - Coercion on private companies like Apple and Google to pull ICE apps, law firms to do free work, and quid pro quo for propaganda for regulatory approval for the Warner deal - Epstein Epstein Epstein - Foreign policy issues, including the replacement of career diplomats with Trump’s son-in-law and his developer buddy and the role of crypto investment in that deal and Trump’s acceptance of the Flying Bribery Palace from Qatar This is, admittedly, a list designed to gin up support in advance of the midterms; in two places, the WaPo notes that Trump obstruction may make it very hard to pursue some of these investigations (at least via traditional methods, I would add). I don’t expect Democrats to share how they plan to bypass Trump’s obstruction. But there’s something that’s is barely mentioned that I think does deserve some focus: Iran. It is mentioned, three times, in these contexts: The politicization of intelligence: Rep. Jim Himes (Connecticut), the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said there has been a purge of intelligence officials who have contradicted the president, including the authors of an assessment that undercut Trump’s rationale for deporting alleged Venezuelan gang members without due process and a report that found limited damage from U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last year. The aforementioned use of conflicted family members in lieu of actual diplomats and then — in the same section on foreign policy — “other:” Trump’s close adviser Steve Witkoff, and the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner have served as leading peace negotiators with countries including Iran, Israel, Russia and Ukraine, even without formally joining his administration. [snip] Other Democratic targets include the Board of Peace, a multinational group meant to end conflicts; the new presidential plane gifted by Qatar; tariffs and trade deals; the Iran war; military intervention and strikes against alleged drug-trafficking boats in Venezuela; and the redevelopment of Gaza. Again, I have no problem with this list, as a pre-election talking point. But I suspect Iran may be a far more urgent issue, if it doesn’t become one before then. That’s because Iran seems to be playing for strategic advantage, with the help of Russia and China. Mid-week last week, Philips OBrien vocalized something I’ve been obsessed about: Iran can do great damage to the US, strategically, by forcing it to use PATRIOT interceptors even with relatively innocuous attacks on US partners in the region, effectively bleeding out the US. Iran has no interest in just sitting back and letting the US strangle its trade with no response. The Iranians seem to want (quite sensibly from a strategic point of view) to both impose itself on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and to bleed the USA of vital military equipment. They have one particularly vital area that they are clearly aiming for, to denude the USA of Patriot interceptors. This is all part of an Iranian ability to opt for sideways escalation, a phrase I have been using for a while. That is by attacking facilities in US partner states in the region, which force the US to expend weapons such as Patriots, to defend them. In that way, even successful US interceptions end up weakening the US position. On the evening of September 8 we had a prime example of this sideways escalation in operation. Jordan said that evening Iran had fired 20 ballistic missiles at it, 18 of which had been intercepted (and claimed that the other two failed to hit their target). If normal US protocol had been followed, and two patriots had been fired at each incoming missile, that means 36 more Patriots were used on just this one interception mission. That seems, unfortunately for the US, a gross underestimate. The skies over Jordan were full of Patriots, and different OSINT accounts are indicating that at least 60 patriots were fired in the operation (some say up to 100, but I would stay with the lower figure). Presumably, both Russia and China would be happy to sustain Iran for some time if they can guarantee that the US will complete the process of shooting its wad. If that happens, the US will be left helpless against certain kinds of attacks, and Iran and Russia and possibly even China can launch offensive attacks on US targets. Meanwhile, Iran’s clients in Yemen have succeeded in a two-fronted attack on the Saudis — hitting both their pipeline to the Red Sea and taking control of a key island in the Bam al-Mandeb — the very strait DOD shot its wad trying to reopen in early 2025, after discussing the “strategy” behind doing so on Signal. Sal Mercogliano explains why this is important (and how expensive this has already made shipping). And in his weekend post, OBrien returns to how suddenly things are going south for the US in the Middle East and speculates that the US refused Saudi Arabia’s request for help responding to the Houthis because the missile shortages make it impossible. what we are seeing is a weakening US, having to abandon its key strategic and economic allies, as its flounders around running out of munitions and losing advanced equipment fighting Iran. The US might (and arguably should) never recover from this disaster, at least in the eyes of its once allies and partners in the region. The idea of US military might has sustained the US for almost 80 years in this area. What states like Saudi Arabia did, was outsource much of their security to the USA based on the assumption that not only was the USA strong, but also that it was reliable. The Saudis purchased such masses of weapons from the USA not out of the goodness of their hearts, but because they believed that this meant that if they were faced with real peril (like they are now) that the US would come to their aid. Now, the USA is too weak to do so. What the Saudis are experiencing will also accelerate a move away from military dependence on America from other states in the Gulf. The US destroying its own strategic position was something I worried about in this August 2 piece in the Atlantic (Gift link). However, it has happened far more quickly than I imagined. In its actions and military failures of the last six and a half months, the American Age in the Middle East seems to be unravelling at an accelerating rate. Importantly, this will have increasingly urgent repercussions domestically. Diesel is already over $6, a record high, which puts pressure on truckers and therefore on all the goods they ship. Trump already significantly emptied the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so he has fewer ways to intervene to insulate American consumers from rising prices. And all that’s before additional instability that Iran, at least, seems determined to attempt before the election. Tomorrow, Iran and some countries (though not all) from the Gulf Cooperation Council will hold talks that could lead to a separate solution — or at least, add to the pressure on the US to capitulate to Iran. Yes, underlying all this is the scandal that Jared and Witkoff didn’t understand the least little thing they were discussing in their last bid to forestall this war and likely hope to profit off any “deal” to end the war. Underlying this all is the corruption that drives every single thing Trump has done in his second term. But the Iran War will not only provide a way to get to the corruption, it will present the kind of humiliation and — increasingly likely — not just short term economic pain but long term structural readjustment. It will also provide a way to demonstrate that white supremacists fuck everything up. Most of all, it may create the kind of emergency that Democrats must prepare to exploit before the Disaster Capitalists get there first and before the white supremacists who got ass-handed move to scapegoat someone else. One or more (domestic US) refineries going offline for maintenance (or equipment malfunction) will spike fuel prices further as supplies become more constrained. [Welcome to emptywheel. THIRD REQUEST — Please choose and use a unique username with a minimum of 8 letters. We adopted this minimum standard to support community security. Because your username is too short and common, your username will be temporarily changed to match the date/time of your first known comment until you have a new compliant username. **WARNING: After four requests without compliance, you will be banned from commenting.** /~Rayne] Iran doesn’t forgive and forget. They already have uranium enriched 60% according to numerous sources which could be used right now as a dirty bomb, and in a week or so it can be brought to 90% weapons grade. Yes, we will have much concern over Iran long after Trump, thanks to Trump’s misplaced arrogance masking his ignorance. No one in their right mind would try to make a dirty bomb out of uranium, especially highly enriched uranium. First it’s just not that dirty (radioactive), which is why we still find it in nature. And it’s much more valuable as fuel for nuclear reactions—including to produce the highly radioactive stuff. Moreover, it’s likely that uranium is deeply buried in ruins, enrichment equipment in unknown condition, building a moderately sophisticated bomb would not be trivial, particularly in Iran’s current circumstances, using such a weapon would be counterproductive for Iran, and they seem to have found an alternative way to exert leverage for the time being. As the Orange Shite has flooded the zone with illegal, immoral, and plain bad taste transgressions, if the Democrats (only) take back the House then I would caution that they risk flooding the zone with investigations. Any investigations should be selected on their ability to damage the Republican party’s chances in 2028. If the Orange Shite is indeed a lame duck, then investigating anything that doesn’t connect him to other Republicans is early-to-need. The lack of a Senate majority would mean that only the most far-reaching transgessions would find Senate allies. Of course, the wildcard would be the Republican race to inherit the MAGA throne. Inheritance may require the Orange Shite’s blessing OR be one of acolytes trying to distance themselves from a lame duck. If the latter, then the Senate might only be interested in investigations that are narrowly focused on the “family”. If the Democrates also gain a majority in the Senate, then I think that investigations leading to impeachment / conviction would be most active. I think that A.O.C. and others would push in that direction. I personally would rather have him (at first) be boxed-in by Democrats in both houses than impeached. They could legislatively strip-out some of his actions, de-fund others, and impeach some folks. This could set the sage for a 2028 where Democrats have shown that they are serious about de-trumpification. I feel that having revenge by multiple investigations, especially without the Senate, would be counterproductive. “If the Orange Shite is indeed a lame duck, then investigating anything that doesn’t connect him to other Republicans is early-to-need.” Yes! It’s not just Trump. It’s the Republican Party that needs to be exposed for what it is. Vonnegut says, “You are what you pretend to be.” These inept people think they already ARE something. You are what you do. This is the Corleone extended family, only they’re all Fredos. I’m constantly reminded of what Ukrainian soldiers said when Russia tried to take Kiev 4 years ago: “We’re lucky they’re so fking stupid.” It’s spelled Kyiv. Kiev is how it’s spelled in Russia. It was written in the first days of the war when KSA used 7 patriots for one incoming missile. US building only 40 patriots a month. Russia building 70 ballistic and cruise missiles a month and Iran with a stockpile of around 2000. Won’t even have to wait for the economic cost differential to have an effect. The US and allies will run out just like Ukraine has. The hubris of the likes of Yaroslav Trofimev ignoring the economic effects on the rest of the world will become apparent as oil exports drop further after Iran took out an pumping station on the KSA pipeline to the Red Sea which was used to export 4 to 5 million barrels of oil a day. Russia just made multiple attacks on Germany’s power grid and trying to drone attack an Ukranian airplane in Germany. Deescalation is better late than never. Sinking 5 or 7 Iranian tankers provokes a response. Attacking the Iranian power grid is likely to provoke a tit for tat war crimes on all the gulf allies. ” … as oil exports drop further … “. Great. I checked with my heating oil supplier today, and his price, which was ~$3.30 back in June, is up close to $6 now. It’s going to be a long, cold winter. Which raises this question in my mind: Will it be there for me, just at a higher price? Or, might I be unable to get it? What would you do if you can’t get enough heating oil? I can’t predict it but I’d plan for it. I want a balcony solar power kit — just enough to run a 12000 BTU mini-split, or my refrigerator. Just enough electricity to keep my pipes from freezing. I expect to continue to have natural gas but I worry there will be other forms of disruption which might make an auxiliary alternate electricity source necessary. Most home natural gas installations provide for some gas use even in the absence of power. We have gas to the house but didn’t use it (with relatively cheap PNW electricity, central heating is an electric forced-air furnace ). But we have an unused (because of my asthma) fireplace, in which we’ve placed a sealed (outside air source) Vermont Castings gas stove w/air-circulating fan, and both thermostat and gas-valve controls (and cheery flames!). It keeps the core house fairly warm during power outages. We have a big enough battery pack to run the fan for a couple days and can cook (well, heat food) on top of it. We’re sited favorably for roof-top solar with home-level battery to run fridge and induction cooktop, plus a planned new heat pump (replacing the furnace while adding newly-necessary PNW A/C). Last thing would be replacing my 15-year-old Mini Cooper with a small, local-range EV like my sister’s Chevy Volt (my encouragement is my sister and her husband who did that for their Boise home—great solar gain both summer and winter, and they’ve driven here in their Volt). In our 70’s, we may never get around to all that last stuff but comforting to know we can. We have a gas forced air furnace; the problem is forcing the air without electricity. When we’ve lost power in the winter, I’ve heated the house with wood; I’d insisted on a wood fireplace when we built the house because I didn’t want us to be affected by fossil fuel supply burps. Wood fire’s been enough to keep the pipes from freezing through longer outages. We also need electricity for the refrigerator when not winter (in Michigan we just stash food in a cooler in the garage or on the porch depending on whether it needs to be cold or frozen if we lose electricity). Solar would get us through that. My next project: designing a gravity-powered fan I can use on the fireplace, or for air circulation in the summer. Thinking of something that operates like an antique weight or clock spit jack but made of both recycled gears and wood blades. Snatch Moulah [Verse 1] She was trolling AI slop late one night, When her eyes beheld a creepy sight, For her master agitprop began to rise, And suddenly to her surprise: [Chorus] She bid a path, She bid a psychopath, She bid a path, Now headed for a bath, She bid a path, She brought on lots of wrath, She bid a path, She bid a psychopath. [Verse 2] From the bunker ballroom in the parcel east, To the liege dining room where the vamp hires feast, The goons all came with their frontal inroads, to upset votes with their episodes [Chorus] [Verse 3] Grumblers wouldn’t be outdone, Their party, under the gun, Best dressed included cavemen, ‘Snatch Moulah’ and his son, The team was squawking, They were rigging the rounds, Iran remains backed by the paying clowns, The frothing clangers were about overdrive, as a vocal group gave crypto high fives! [Chorus] Out from the frothing Snatch’s choice did spring, Seems he had buckled another king, He let loose his id and shook his fist and said, “All of this happened from someone’s misguided assist!” [Chorus] [Verse 5] Now everything’s cruel, Snatch is part of the brand, But a psychopath now has something else planned With each misgiving a path was bent, too, If you think you want more tell them Boris sent you! [Chorus] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8uvLHnrqdU Bobby Pickett – Monster Mash [HD] One big thing that struck me about the war with Iran is that nobody in command appears to have a grasp on the concept of firing discipline, especially the attention to conserving your ammunition. Trump loves the imagery of power, so the more bangs the better. The bigger the bangs, the better. In ordinary circumstances, the SecDef and the Joint Chiefs would explain to a president with no military training that using only the ordinance needed to achieve your mission allows you to be ready for the next one. I haven’t seen his service record, but Hegseth strikes me as the guy who flunked fire discipline class. “We’re the toughest SOBs in the world, and we can just blow stuff up and get our way.” Uh, how’s that working out for you, Mr. Secretary of Excursions. Given how Hegseth and Trump took a scythe through the flag officer corps, I am not surprised that the Joint Chiefs either didn’t try to teach fire discipline to these two, or they were ineffective at getting the lessons across. Which brings us to where we are – running out of missiles and unable to help properly defend our Saudi allies when they call for us to help. The Saudi’s will remember this, and not in a good way. The Houthis have forced the Saudis to shut down (at least temporarily) their east-west pipeline, and thus the flow of oil is even more restricted. And the beat goes on . . . From CNBC: IOW, this restriction on the Strait of Hormuz will become the new normal. European nations will remember this. US energy companies will remember this. Shipping companies, from those who manage ocean-bound tankers to UPS, Amazon, FedEx, and all those companies with all their 18 wheelers, will remember this. The Iran disaster is just that – a disaster – and folks in DC are only starting to grasp just how big a disaster it is going to be. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/11/politics/saudi-arabian-oil-pipeline-hit-by-projectiles-triggering-fires Attack from Iraq territory but Saudis say they will not get revenge on Iraq but rather Iran. Perhaps part of the response to US sinking or disabling Irani oil tankers. Perhaps bringing KSA to the new shipping route rules. The Houthi’s advanced southward inside Yemen. One thing about the investigative strategy I read was that they plan to sue quickly to force testimony and obtain documents. I worry that despite the district courts and First Circuit’s willingness to play ball, but will the Supreme Court end up slow-walking any (Republican-only) claims to Executive Privilege and give what people are forced to testify a way to say, “Due to pending litigation, I have been advised to refuse to answer any questions…” How do you see this playing out? PS: I think forcing the issues quickly is the best strategy but am worried that no strategy will yield any benefits until 2029. Agree the American Supreme Court will be a big problem in any actions unless there is a work around. Doubt if there is. Can they even be fired? At least in Canada they have to retire at 75. Investigations are nice. They provide work for lawyers, and money. Lots of material for the press, lots of air time on t.v., even material for movies, etc but do they change any thing to improve how the government is run or provide relief for the citizens right out the gate. Not so much. If the Democrats take control of both Houses after the mid terms I’d suggest fire the trump appointees. Find people who know what they are doing and get on with providing the services voters require and stop the loss of money. These “show trials” don’t achieve anything much in the end. Dr. OBrien’s Substack is essential reading to follow both the Iran and Ukraine situations. He thinks the US should totally withdraw from the Middle East and work on reforming the military. On the political question the Dems will need to focus their investigations in areas where Trump cannot throw up roadblocks as easily such as the corporations that paid essentially bribes to the administration. There’s another avenue for Oversight Dems to target, which hits on both Iran and the fake IRS settlement: Capital One suspects Trump laundered money tied to IRGC in 2012-2013. Via his Trump Tower Baku. https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.687220/gov.uscourts.flsd.687220.75.3.pdf I would really be (pleasantly) shocked if the Democrats actually looked into this. This, I fear, is Trump’s “plan:” Do nothing to end the war (in other words, truly negotiate) unless the economic pain from vastly reduced oil supplies becomes a chorus of screams from MAGA Republicans, in which case he’ll try to deploy tactical nukes against Iran, which will, of course, give Putin the excuse he needs to do the same to Ukraine. If the pain doesn’t reach that level, Trump will start blaming the Iran war and all his mistakes on “radical left” Democrats who will likely control Congress after the midterms (as if his incompetence is their fault). If Trump actually does leave office in 2028, he and Republicans will instantly pin the Iran mess on whichever Democrat is elected president, the Afghanistan playbook, which worked. Most of red America believes the Iraq/Afghanistan fiascos were the fault of Democrats. He’s blaming fuel problems on Ukraine shutting down Russian refineries. That explains *Russia’s* fuels shortages. Doesn’t affect the US, which has problems due to Donny’s shooting war on Iran and his economic war on Canada. Which were encourage by who??? I, too, have been worrying about Trump opening the tactical nuke Pandora’s Box for about two months now. Putin would seize upon that opening to slaughter the Ukrainians. Spelling: “Bam al-Mandeb” should be “Bab al-Mandeb”, in the graf starting with ‘Meanwhile, Iran’s clients in Yemen’ I’d like Kegseth to be sent to that region to explain his actions, or inactions, to the people we’re supposed to be protecting, including the military families who were left behind when the war started. Did Neocons never contemplate “sideways escalation”? About 9/11, it’s often repeated that 9/11 represented a failure of imagination. This lets senior advisors off the hook. It wasn’t a failure of imagination. Staffers imagined terroristic attacks on our soil. It was hubris – thinking that we were insulated by oceans or our power. Why wouldn’t Iran attack the US by attacking our bases in countries of our regional allies?. Because it might engender hostile reaction from already hostile countries? Did we not war game that? Why wouldn’t China and Russia exploit the situation to make the US weaker? Did we not war game that because Trump has such a great relationship with Putin and Xi? Their beloved Tom Clancy wrote a whole novel about a terrorist crashing a plane into the Capitol during a joint session of Congress — in 1994! — and they couldn’t imagine real terrorists doing the same kind of thing? And it’s not like this was some nobody’s self-published novel that no one ever bought. It was top of the best sellers list for months, and sold something in excess of 2.4 million hardback copies in its first year. You’re right: that’s not a lack of imagination. That’s hubris. And Hegseth is hubris personified. Anyone who challenges him and his thinking is swiftly shown the door. If Flight 93 was going to DC, my guess was it was going to try hitting either the Pentagon or the Capitol. Easy to identify for novice pilots, easy to pilot a plane straight at either one. (And if the Washington Monument gets clipped, it probably won’t stop the plane.)