The Democrats are heading toward a major victory in the US

Democrats Heading Toward Major Victory in US Elections – Results Overview President Trump is proving to be a liability for the Republican Party. Initial results indicate that after two years in the opposition, the Democrats are set to take power in both chambers of Congress. Key points at a glance: - The Republicans are most likely to lose the majority in the US House of Representatives. This would end a two-year phase in which Donald Trump's party controlled not only the White House but also both chambers of Congress. Just under half of the 435 districts have been decided so far. However, based on the interim results, the Democrats' hopes for a "blue wave" are being realized. A change of power in the lower house would result in a curtailment of Republican President Donald Trump's power. In the future, Democrats could block all legislative initiatives from the White House and launch investigations into the President or his staff. - A Democratic victory is also emerging in the Senate. The previous Republican majority of 53:47 is wavering, as Democrats have gained seats in several former Republican strongholds. Their victory in the extremely conservative state of South Carolina is a major surprise—the first in nearly three decades. Additionally, as expected, the Republicans lost a seat in neighboring North Carolina. In the conservative state of Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff effortlessly defended his seat. Attention is now focused on Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, where Republican Senate seats are hanging in the balance. By capturing a Senate majority, Democrats could reject Trump's nominees for judgeships and executive offices. - 36 of the 50 governors are also being newly elected. Democrats have a good chance of holding a majority of these important offices for the first time since 2010. House of Representatives After four years under Republican control, a change of power in the House of Representatives is highly likely. In the 435-member lower house, the Democrats remained a narrow minority with 215 seats in the last election. Based on current interim results, they will easily capture the remaining 3 seats needed for a majority. However, it may take about a week until the final count is completed. The number of representatives varies greatly by state: California has the largest delegation in Washington with 52 seats, while the six least populous states have only one mandate each. The results for each individual state can be accessed in the interactive graphic below. Senate In the Senate, 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two allied independents) have faced off until now. The Democrats need at least 4 seat gains for a victory. This is because in a 50:50 tie, the tie-breaking vote of Vice President J. D. Vance, as President of the Senate, would decide in favor of the Republicans. At this point, the future majority remains unclear. So far, only 2 seat gains for the Democrats are confirmed. In North Carolina, popular former Governor Roy Cooper prevailed as expected against Republican Michael Whatley, a former head of the Republican national party headquarters. However, there was a big surprise in neighboring South Carolina: there, Democrat Annie Andrews, a doctor without significant political experience, won against Republican incumbent Darline Graham, who had entered Congress a few months ago following the death of her brother Lindsey. Since 1998, this conservative state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate. Democrats are also heading toward a victory in Republican-dominated Texas, where they may win a Senate seat for the first time in nearly 40 years. 35 of the 100 Senate seats were up for election on Tuesday. In the lead-up, attention focused on races in seven states: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. With the exception of Michigan, these are all traditional Republican Senate seats that appeared highly vulnerable during the campaign. To achieve a majority in the upper house, Democrats must prevail in at least four of these seven key states. In previous Senate elections, it took several days for all races to be decided. This year, two factors complicate matters: the complex, two-stage voting system in two of the seven key states, and a legal dispute over the candidate list in Alaska. The interactive graphic below shows which states had Senate seats up for election. Regardless of size, each state sends two senators to Washington. Since the Senate is renewed by one-third every two years, 33 of the 100 seats were due for regular reelection; additionally, special elections took place in 2 states. Consequences for 2027 The loss of the Republican majority in the House has painful consequences for President Donald Trump. Trump will now find it difficult to push through his legislative ideas. A deadlock in budget legislation would not be surprising, potentially leading to a temporary paralysis of the federal administration ("government shutdown"). However, a president has tools to govern bypassing Congress, especially in foreign policy. On domestic issues, Trump is likely to try to prevail using executive orders. With their majority, Democrats will take over the leadership of all House committees in January. This includes powers to investigate potential abuses in the executive branch. Investigations into allegations of widespread corruption in the White House are likely. Theoretically, impeachment proceedings would also be possible. However, leading Democrats are speaking out against such an escalation, especially since the Senate would most likely acquit Trump, as happened in the two previous impeachment trials. Impeachment proceedings against subordinates, such as the controversial Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, are more conceivable. Will there be disputes over the election results? For years, President Donald Trump has claimed that the American electoral system is characterized by widespread fraud. While Trump has never questioned his own election victories, he portrayed his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden as a result of election rigging—without being able to provide proof. Legal disputes over alleged manipulation could occur after these midterm elections as well. Just before election day, two government strategies were evident: - Protest against deceptive maneuvers in Alaska: Because the Democrats fielded a candidate with the same name as a "double" in the fight against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, the US Department of Justice is considering criminal investigations for possible voter deception. However, this idea is met with rejection even by the Republican government of Alaska. - Suspicions about foreign voting: The Trump administration alleges that a large number of non-citizens are unlawfully participating in elections. It demanded that authorities in California secure 20,000 ballots to check for this suspicion. The case went to the Supreme Court, which rejected the request. Such legal disputes can cause a prolonged period of uncertainty. However, they are currently not expected to have a significant influence on the overall result. Results in Historical Comparison As a rule, a president's party loses seats in the House of Representatives during midterm elections. The electorate uses this opportunity to send the president a clear message. However, the extent of this depends heavily on the unpopularity of the incumbent. The graphic below clearly shows this correlation: in the first midterms after entering the White House, presidents with an approval rating below 45 percent lost particularly many of their party's seats. The only exception was Joe Biden in 2022. Given his unpopularity, most election experts had expected much higher losses. Today, his successor Trump suffers from an even greater handicap with an average approval rating of around 39 percent. If the election forecasts are correct, his party will lose around 20 seats in the House. This would correspond to the historical pattern for midterm elections. Since World War II, gains have occurred only once, in 2002 under Republican George W. Bush. This was a special situation due to the terror attacks of the previous year. The following graphic illustrates the power dynamics of recent decades. The situation where one party controlled both chambers of Congress in addition to the White House, as has been the case under Trump, occurred only relatively rarely. More than twice as often, the parties shared power ("divided government"). This will likely define daily life in Washington in the future as well. Women are a Minority in Congress – and Mostly Democrats The performance of women is also closely monitored in the congressional elections. At 28 percent, the share of women in the US Congress is relatively low, even compared to Europe (the EU average is 34 percent). After a sharp increase around 2020, the share stagnated in the last elections. According to forecasts, this picture is unlikely to change fundamentally with the current midterms. It is probable that the share of women will remain about the same or increase slightly to 29 percent. Precise information will only come from the count of all races, which will take several more days. What is certain is that almost three-quarters of female members of Congress will continue to come from the Democratic Party. Gubernatorial Elections In 36 states and 3 overseas territories, the office of governor—the top executive office in the state—was also newly filled. Until now, Democrats held 24 of the 50 governorships; in the future, they are likely to achieve a narrow majority of these important offices. Gubernatorial elections receive less national focus but are also of great importance. Governors exert strong influence on state regulations through the issuance of executive orders or the exercise of their veto power. The governor's office also frequently serves as a springboard for national careers. Presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, and Jimmy Carter were all governors previously. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro, for example, could receive national momentum through his reelection in Pennsylvania. He has long been rumored to have ambitions for a presidential run in 2028. Two years ago, Pennsylvania voted for Republican Trump as president; now Shapiro has the chance to prove his popularity in this swing state. Referendums In addition to the elections, a total of 145 initiatives and referendums were voted on on November 3. Some of these proposals received strong national attention: - Billionaire Tax: A popular initiative in California demanded a one-time 5 percent levy on individuals with a net worth of at least one billion dollars. It would be the first state-level billionaire tax in the USA. The initiative is primarily supported by trade unions, while wealthy donors have financed a "no" campaign with more than 140 million dollars. The result of the vote is still pending. - Abortion: In several states, voters had the opportunity to voice their opinion on the tightening or liberalization of abortion laws. After the Supreme Court overturned the previous nationwide liberal regulation in a controversial 2022 ruling, the issue now falls under the jurisdiction of the states. Virginia has now enshrined the right to abortion in its constitution. - Transgender Rights: In four states, proposals demanded that transgender athletes in school sports competitions only be allowed to compete in the category of their biological sex. Two other proposals aimed to ban gender-affirming care for minors. The results are still pending. - Voting Rights: In several states, voters could express their views on changes to voting laws, such as a requirement to show ID when voting. Alaska also voted on the abolition of the ranked-choice voting system decided in 2020, which is considered complicated. This system allows not only for a simple vote but also for ranking candidates in a specific order. Text and concept: Andreas Rüesch Graphics and data: Joana Kelén, Nikolai Thelitz, Andreas Rüesch Development of interactive graphics and maps: Franco Gervasi, Joana Kelén, Leila Epprecht, Nicolas Staub