Critical Weather Scenario Screening Using Weather

Electrical Engineering and Systems Science > Systems and Control [Submitted on 24 Aug 2026] Title:Critical Weather Scenario Screening Using Weather-to-Voltage (W2V) Predictive Modeling View PDF HTML (experimental)Abstract:This paper proposes a critical weather scenario screening framework for identifying weather conditions that can trigger high-voltage (HV) events in the power grid. Unlike conventional weather-aware contingency analysis limited to component-level outage risk, our framework screens weather scenarios as potential drivers of grid-level voltage violations. Given a non-critical weather scenario, we seek the perturbation over the high-dimensional weather space to maximize a pre-defined voltage criticality score, by using a differentiable weather-to-voltage (W2V) predictive model to facilitate the gradient update over a compact latent space. Specifically, a non-negativity constraint is used for achieving physically-consistent perturbations, with another L1-norm based constraint for bounded perturbation. The latter could promote sparse and interpretable perturbations, and this uniform budget also yields a sensitivity-aware vulnerability ranking across different weather scenarios. Numerical experiments on a 6717-bus synthetic Texas system have effectively demonstrated the potential of weather uncertainty in triggering HV events, and this potential cannot be represented by the voltage analysis of individual weather scenarios. Interestingly, the most vulnerable scenarios are characterized by wind-dominated perturbation patterns concentrated in high wind-capacity regions, coinciding with observations from actual power flow data and experiences in real system operations. Current browse context: eess.SY References & Citations Loading... Bibliographic and Citation Tools Bibliographic Explorer (What is the Explorer?) Connected Papers (What is Connected Papers?) Litmaps (What is Litmaps?) scite Smart Citations (What are Smart Citations?) Code, Data and Media Associated with this Article alphaXiv (What is alphaXiv?) CatalyzeX Code Finder for Papers (What is CatalyzeX?) DagsHub (What is DagsHub?) Gotit.pub (What is GotitPub?) Hugging Face (What is Huggingface?) ScienceCast (What is ScienceCast?) Demos Recommenders and Search Tools Influence Flower (What are Influence Flowers?) CORE Recommender (What is CORE?) arXivLabs: experimental projects with community collaborators arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website. Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them. Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.