What is Trump's diesel deal with Russia for Ukraine

What Trump's diesel deal with Russia means for the Ukraine war October 13, 2026 Many Ukrainians and Europeans have perceived the news from Washington last weekend as a stab in the back from their ally the USA. First, US President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russia on the purchase of Russian diesel, which also provides for a temporary relaxation of US sanctions against Moscow. When Kyiv sharply criticized this, Trump once again accused President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of not being ready to negotiate with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin to end the war. Therefore, according to Trump, it is time for Ukraine to "get a new leader who could make a deal". Later, Trump also announced an allegedly agreed "energy-weapons truce" between Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv explained that this idea had not even been discussed with Ukraine, but they were ready to stop attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure if Moscow did the same. "We are grateful to the US and support the idea of an energy-weapons truce. Now Russia must also show that it agrees to this energy-weapons truce," Zelenskyy emphasized on October 12 in a video call at the Warsaw Security Forum. "Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine" According to security expert Carlo Masala from the University of Defense Munich, those reports from the USA have shown that "Trump is not at all interested in supporting Ukraine, but that US domestic politics and the relationship with Russia are much more important to him than support for Ukraine". According to the expert, the US President is trying to influence the outcome of the midterm elections in the US on November 3 through an agreement with Russia. In the midterms, all seats in the House of Representatives and a turn of the Senate will be newly elected. Polls indicate that Trump's Republican Party could lose its majority in the House of Representatives. A loss of majority in the Senate by the Republicans is also not ruled out. According to reports, American voters are dissatisfied with high fuel prices, and the US President apparently hopes to influence prices with diesel deliveries from Russia. Observers believe Trump's hopes that Russian diesel deliveries could influence prices in the US, but they are illusory. "The amount is so small that it will have no price effect at all," says Thomas Jäger from the University of Cologne to the German broadcaster ARD. According to the political scientist, the deliveries planned for before the midterms are not even enough to cover the US diesel demand for a single day. "Even what is to be delivered afterwards, if it comes, will have no price effect," he emphasizes. Trump is only "after history" - that is, to show the voters that he wants to solve a problem that is affecting them. "No militarily positive effects for Russia" The main point of criticism for Kyiv and the EU states is that Russia will use the revenue from diesel sales to finance its war against Ukraine. After all, the report about the agreement between Washington and Moscow came a week after more than 150 civilians were killed in Russian attacks in Ukraine, including a strike on a residential building in the city of Pryluky and on buses in Kramatorsk. Nevertheless, Carlo Masala expects "no militarily concrete positive effects" for Russia from the agreement with the US. He recalls that Washington had already temporarily suspended sanctions against the export of Russian oil immediately after the US and Israeli attacks on Iran in March of this year. "Despite the money that Russia has and has received, it has no military strategy for how to proceed in the Donbas. It is more about the political implications and the symbolism that the Americans are making separate deals with the Russians at the expense of the Ukrainians," the expert says. Another reason for concern for Kyiv could be the US threats to stop the exchange of intelligence with Ukraine and block the PURL program (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) if Ukraine does not stop its attacks on Russian oil refineries. At least corresponding reports are circulating in the media based on high-ranking US officials. European states obtain American weapons for Ukraine through the PURL program. The absence of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities in the past 48 hours could be an indication that the Ukrainian leadership takes the US threats seriously. European Alternatives to US Intelligence Data However, Carlo Masala advises against drawing hasty conclusions. "The fact that no strikes are taking place a day does not mean that Kyiv will comply with it," he says. Regarding the possible US waiver of providing intelligence data for attacks on Russian territory to Ukraine, the consequences for Kyiv, although "dramatic," could be mitigated by European data, especially by the French. Although these are "not as comprehensive as the American ones," they are already being used by the Ukrainian military for attacks on Russia with French weapon systems. On the weapons, which the Europeans obtain from the Americans under the PURL program for Ukraine, Masala recalls that their most important component - anti-aircraft missiles - are hardly available to the Ukrainians since the beginning of the Iran war. Support for Ukraine in both US parties In view of the US congressional elections, experts point out that Ukraine enjoys broad support not only from Democrats but also from Republicans. This is shown, among other things, by the joint adoption of a law to tighten US sanctions against Russia in the summer of this year, known as the "Lindsey-Graham Act" - named after its supporter, the now deceased Republican Congressman. This law signed by Trump in September equips the President with a broad arsenal. He can impose sanctions against Russian officials, oligarchs, financial institutions, and the Russian shadow fleet that are used to circumvent export restrictions for oil. Furthermore, he can impose punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian energy carriers. "Trump may be nervous, but political forces, especially after the midterms, could pressure the government to act to end the war using the available means," says former US diplomat Daniel Fried in an interview with DW. According to him, the "Graham Act" and the 2022 law, which prohibits US imports of Russian oil, do not pose "absolute, but effective obstacles to foolish ideas like a one-sided diesel deal with Russia without quid pro quo". It is this law that several Senators of the Democratic and Republican parties refer to in a joint statement. In it, they describe the diesel agreement with Russia as illegal and call on the US government to "immediately correct its decision". Adaptation from Ukraine: Markian Ostaptschuk