Analysts weigh in on potential Amazon

Amazon is reportedly weighing a $9 million acquisition of Globalstar. Here’s why Amazon is reportedly in talks with Globalstar — the company behind Apple’s emergency direct-to-device (D2D) service — for an acquisition, which, until recently, rumors were, that SpaceX was weighing. Turns out things move fast in the satellite industry. At the SATShow 2026 in D.C. last week, rumors swirled about a potential Globalstar takeover. This morning, several media outlets, including the Financial Times, Reuters, and CNBC, reported that Amazon is in advanced talks to acquire the company for $9 billion. People familiar with the matter have confirmed that both companies are in negotiation with Globalstar, the FT reported. Globalstar’s stock jumped up 15% in extended trading after the story broke. With online chatter picking up, we asked industry analysts what’s their take on the bidding war between Amazon and SpaceX. But before that, here’s what we know so far. First, reports surfaced that SpaceX is bidding for Globalstar. Globalstar holds a pivotal position in the D2D market through its exclusive partnership with Apple, and with Starlink’s recent introduction of Starlink Mobile, marking a new phase in its D2D strategy, and the intensifying competition in the Low Earth orbit (LEO) connectivity, SpaceX’s interest seemed reasonable. Had SpaceX won the bid, it would have given it a more direct relationship with Apple, and privileged access to the iPhone ecosystem for its growing Starlink Mobile service, leveraging spectrum assets acquired from EchoStar last year, said Luke Pearce of CCS Insights. For Amazon, there seems to be three main — mostly overlapping — incentives: spectrum access, operational advantage, and faster regulatory clearance. The acquisition would give it control of a company that enables Apple’s satellite service, which according to CCS Insight data is available on 384 million Apple devices. Additionally, Globalstar owns a portion of its own S-band mobile satellite service (MSS) spectrum, known as band n53, which is also licensed for 5G. MSS spectrum has become increasingly valuable, as it is globally harmonized, approved by regulators, and does not interfere with terrestrial networks allowing more capable D2D services. “An acquisition could allow Amazon, via its Amazon Leo constellation, a meaningful shortcut into the satellite direct-to-device market, providing it with the necessary building blocks to complement its ambitions to rival SpaceX Starlink and signalling a more assertive push beyond fixed broadband into direct-to-device connectivity,” Pearce said. Roger Enter of Recon Analytics agrees. He said that the acquisition would help Amazon to get spectrum, but more importantly, build “a working relationship” with Apple. Amazon, he said, will also benefit from gaining access to Globalstar’s current customer base. “It would give Amazon a second leg to stand on, and Globalstar, a graceful exit,” he said. Globalstar’s service today is primarily focused on emergency messaging, with limited two-way iMessage support in North America, providing basic connectivity in areas without terrestrial coverage. The company is currently working with Canadian manufacturer, MDA Space, to build additional satellites. Amazon’s acquisition will give it the financial backing it needs to expand the capacity of its constellation, Pearce said. Some think Globalstar will not be a one-off deal for Amazon. LEO evangelist, Tim Belfall, wrote on LinkedIn: “If the Globalstar acquisition is approved, I would not be surprised if Amazon then targeted AST SpaceMobile,” adding that a more urgent problem for Amazon Leo at this point is to get their satellites into orbit quickly. “The only way they can achieve that is by throwing SpaceX a lot of money for the next two years, something which they will find very distasteful,” he added. “This isn’t just an expansion; it’s a $9B regulatory insurance policy,” said Mohit Mohan, advisor operating in the 5G, NTN, and satellite space. “Current deployment progress suggests Amazon may face challenges in meeting its FCC milestones for July 2026. Acquiring Globalstar would provide immediate access to L-band/S-band spectrum [3GPP n255/n256] and an operational constellation.” With a fully-operational network and licensed spectrum, Amazon Leo can make its service available earlier than expected as satellite deployment continues. “In essence, Amazon is trading capital for time, spectrum, and deployment certainty,” Mohan said. However, Apple’s involvement with Globalstar may complicate the situation. The company’s investment in Globalstar over the last few years exceeds $2 billion. On top of that, it owns a 20% equity stake in Apple. Additionally, Apple reserves 85% of Globalstar’s network capacity for the iPhone. The remainder, it uses for its other business lines, which include commercial IoT and government services. “This introduces a trilateral negotiation dynamic,” Mohan said. While transfer of spectrum ownership will need regulatory clearance from the FCC, Mohan said, Amazon must negotiate directly with Apple to resolve the operational dependency and ownership stake. However, there are some open questions at this point. Besides the obvious execution risks, there are regulatory hurdles which can delay the transfer of spectrum ownership for Amazon, while aligning MSS spectrum with broadband LEO architecture has its own complexities, as Mohan pointed out. It is unknown how Amazon will navigate these challenges, but it will be key to the success of the M&A.