China wafer prices hold steady amid divergent output plans and looming polysilicon cuts

China wafer prices hold steady amid divergent output plans and looming polysilicon cuts China’s wafer market activity remained subdued as the country entered the early-October Golden Week holiday. Free-On-Board (FOB) China N-type M10 and 210R wafer prices remained unchanged week on week at $0.149/pc and $0.153/pc respectively, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on Oct. 6. Ahead of the holiday, market participants said prices for orders signed before the break were largely unchanged. Nevertheless, downstream buyers increased procurement to some extent to stock production material, supporting further inventory destocking. Wafer inventories are currently estimated at around 25 GW. Entering the fourth quarter, wafer producers continue to show divergent production plans, with no broad consensus on production cuts comparable to that emerging in the polysilicon market. Some manufacturers are reportedly planning to increase output in October, partly in anticipation of stronger downstream installation demand toward the end of the year. Upstream, meanwhile, the polysilicon supply outlook is beginning to shift after several months of rising production. According to the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, China’s monthly polysilicon output rose from 92,900 metric tons (MT) in June to an estimated 120,400 MT in September. The association expects the trend to reverse in October, with output forecast to fall approximately 12.9% month on month to around 105,000 MT as planned production cuts outweigh restarts. At the same time, one polysilicon manufacturer showed a strong willingness to support prices, saying new regulatory requirements require producers to maintain offers at no less than full production costs. Combined with the anticipated production cuts, the manufacturer expects polysilicon prices to move toward production-cost levels, although the adjustment is likely to be gradual. pv magazine Session @ NetZero Milan Expo Summit 2026 The dynamics shaping global PV supply chains – including solar modules, inverters, and battery energy storage systems – will be discussed during the “Decoding solar supply chains” session at the NetZero event in Milan on Oct. 21. The session will examine the forces reshaping clean energy supply chains, from manufacturing and sourcing strategies to shifting trade and regulatory requirements. It will also explore what these developments mean for companies procuring solar and energy storage equipment in an increasingly complex global market. Join us in Milan to hear from industry experts and take part in the discussion on the future of solar supply chains. Expectations that polysilicon prices will return to more rational, cost-supported levels are prompting some wafer manufacturers to accelerate production using polysilicon purchased at lower prices, according to one industry source. The source expects wafer output to increase gradually month on month by about 1-2 GW through December before manufacturers begin bringing forward Lunar New Year production holidays in January 2027. While China’s domestic demand could provide some support to the wafer market in the fourth quarter, overseas demand is expected to remain slow and cautious. This pressure has intensified following a temporary final rule issued in late September by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security. The rule restricts the stockpiling of polysilicon and polysilicon derivatives ahead of the Section 232 import adjustments taking effect on Dec. 4, 2026. It covers imports during the transition period from Sept. 22 to Dec. 3. One source said solar imports into the U.S. before Dec. 4 largely consisted of China-origin wafers, cells and modules entering through circumvention channels involving smaller traders and companies. The source expects the rule to significantly curb such imports, thereby reducing demand for China-origin wafers. Against this backdrop, market participants expect demand for smaller-format M10 wafers, one of the dominant specifications in supply chains serving the U.S. market, to face greater pressure. Larger-format products, by contrast, could benefit from demand from large-scale utility projects in China, supporting prices and accelerating inventory reductions in the fourth quarter. OPIS is a specialist business within Dow Jones Energy, a global energy intelligence business that brings together trusted price reporting, research and market intelligence across the energy value chain. OPIS publishes the OPIS Global Solar Markets Service, which includes pricing data for solar panels and components across Asia, Europe and the U.S., manufacturing capacity data, module forward curves, and a global solar policy tracker. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own, and do not necessarily reflect those held by pv magazine. This content is protected by copyright and may not be reused. If you want to cooperate with us and would like to reuse some of our content, please contact: [email protected]. Please login to comment